A hierarchical patch mosaic ecosystem model for urban landscapes: Model development and evaluation

Do urban planning policies meet sustainable urbanization goals? A scenario-based study in Beijing, China

The global urbanization process has been a concern in recent years, and it is a serious challenge to sustainable development and effective urban governance. Rapid changes in urban land use have caused serious damage to the global ecological environment and ecosystem services (ESs). To help city planners and decision-makers in the process of city planning, it is vital to assess the impacts of urban land use changes on ESs. In this study, urban development under trend continuation and policy planning scenarios were assessed to determine whether the policy planning scenario meets the needs of sustainable urbanization. The two scenarios of future urban expansion in Beijing in 2035 were simulated by the FUTURES (FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation) model, and the spatio-temporal changes of ESs in the two scenarios were explored through the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) model. The results show that the major losses of ESs came from the conversion of cropland land to urban land, which accounts for 79.70% and 69.62% of the total carbon storage loss, 67.88% and 43.94% of the total water yield loss, and 79.94% and 77.72% of the total habitat quality loss, under the Status Quo (SQ) and urban planning development (UPD) scenarios, respectively. Our results emphasize that the policies proposed by the UPD scenario appear to greatly reduce the negative impacts of urban land use change on ESs. However, the government cannot neglect the protection of forest and needs to intensify the implementation of policies implementation in the shallow mountainous areas of the western margins and northeastern and northern regions of Beijing. By understanding the trade-off between future urban structure and ESs, city planners and decision-makers can adjust and optimize suggestions for urban planning policies to achieve sustainable development.

Carbon lost and carbon gained: a study of vegetation and carbon trade-offs among diverse land uses in Phoenix, Arizona

Human modification and management of urban landscapes drastically alters vegetation and soils, thereby altering carbon (C) storage and rates of net primary productivity (NPP). Complex social and ecological processes drive vegetation cover in cities, leading to heterogeneity in C dynamics depending on regional climate, land use, and land cover. Recent work has demonstrated homogenization in ecological processes within human-dominated landscapes (the urban convergence hypothesis) in soils and biotic communities. However, a lack of information on vegetation in arid land cities has hindered an understanding of potential C storage and NPP convergence across a diversity of ecosystem types. We estimated C storage and NPP of trees and shrubs for six different land-use types in the arid metropolis of Phoenix, Arizona, USA, and compared those results to native desert ecosystems, as well as other urban and natural systems around the world. Results from Phoenix do not support the convergence hypothesis. In particular, C storage in urban trees and shrubs was 42% of that found in desert vegetation, while NPP was only 20% of the total NPP estimated for comparable natural ecosystems. Furthermore, the overall estimates of C storage and NPP associated with urban trees in the CAP ecosystem were much lower (8-63%) than the other cities included in this analysis. We also found that C storage (175.25-388.94 g/m² ) and NPP (8.07-15.99 g·m^-2 ·yr^-1 ) were dominated by trees in the urban residential land uses, while in the desert, shrubs were the primary source for pools (183.65 g/m² ) and fluxes (6.51 g·m^-2 ·yr^-1 ). These results indicate a trade-off between shrubs and trees in arid ecosystems, with shrubs playing a major role in overall C storage and NPP in deserts and trees serving as the dominant C pool in cities. Our research supports current literature that calls for the development of spatially explicit and standardized methods for analyzing C dynamics associated with vegetation in urbanizing areas.

Fine-Scale Microclimatic Variation Can Shape the Responses of Organisms to Global Change in Both Natural and Urban Environments

When predicting the response of organisms to global change, models use measures of climate at a coarse resolution from general circulation models or from downscaled regional models. Organisms, however, do not experience climate at such large scales. The climate heterogeneity over a landscape and how much of that landscape an organism can sample will determine ultimately the microclimates experienced by organisms. This past few decades has seen an important increase in the number of studies reporting microclimatic patterns at small scales. This synthesis intends to unify studies reporting microclimatic heterogeneity (mostly temperature) at various spatial scales, to infer any emerging trends, and to discuss the causes and consequences of such heterogeneity for organismal performance and with respect to changing land use patterns and climate. First, we identify the environmental drivers of heterogeneity across the various spatial scales that are pertinent to ectotherms. The thermal heterogeneity at the local and micro-scales is mostly generated by the architecture or the geometrical features of the microhabitat. Then, the thermal heterogeneity experienced by individuals is modulated by behavior. Second, we survey the literature to quantify thermal heterogeneity from the micro-scale up to the scale of a landscape in natural habitats. Despite difficulties in compiling studies that differ much in their design and aims, we found that there is as much thermal heterogeneity across micro-, local and landscape scales, and that the temperature range is large in general (>9 °C on average, and up to 26 °C). Third, we examine the extent to which urban habitats can be used to infer the microclimatic patterns of the future. Urban areas generate globally drier and warmer microclimatic patterns and recent evidence suggest that thermal traits of ectotherms are adapted to them. Fourth, we explore the interplay between microclimate heterogeneity and the behavioral thermoregulatory abilities of ectotherms in setting their overall performance. We used a random walk framework to show that the thermal heterogeneity allows a more precise behavioral thermoregulation and a narrower temperature distribution of the ectotherm compared to less heterogeneous microhabitats. Finally, we discuss the potential impacts of global change on the fine scale mosaics of microclimates. The amplitude of change may differ between spatial scales. In heterogeneous microhabitats, the amplitude of change at micro-scale, caused by atmospheric warming, can be substantial while it can be limited at the local and landscape scales. We suggest that the warming signal will influence species performance and biotic interactions by modulating the mosaic of microclimates.

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape.

Quantifying the effect of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event of climate change on ecosystem productivity

Climate change comprises three fractions of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event. Assessing the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem requires an understanding of the action mechanism of these fractions, respectively. This study examined 11 years of remotely sensed-derived net primary productivity (NPP) to identify the impacts of the trend and fluctuation of climate change as well as extremely low temperatures caused by a freezing disaster on ecosystem productivity in Hunan province, China. The partial least squares regression model was used to evaluate the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to NPP variation. A climatic signal decomposition and contribution assessment model was proposed to decompose climate factors into trend and fluctuation components. Then, we quantitatively evaluated the contributions of each component of climatic factors to NPP variation. The results indicated that the total contribution of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation from 2001 to 2011 in Hunan province is 85 %, and individual contributions of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation are 44 % (including 34 % trend contribution and 10 % fluctuation contribution), 5 % (including 4 % trend contribution and 1 % fluctuation contribution), and 36 % (including 30 % trend contribution and 6 % fluctuation contribution), respectively. The contributions of temperature fluctuation-driven NPP were higher in the north and lower in the south, and the contributions of precipitation trend-driven NPP and PAR fluctuation-driven NPP are higher in the west and lower in the east. As an instance of occasionally triggered disturbance in 2008, extremely low temperatures and a freezing disaster produced an abrupt decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems. These results prove that the climatic trend change brought about great impacts on ecosystem productivity and that climatic fluctuations and extreme events can also alter the ecosystem succession process, even resulting in an alternative trajectory. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the provision of ecosystem functions and services and can also provide a basis for policy makers to apply adaptive measures to overcome the unfavorable influence of climate change.