Effects of hunting, fishing and climate change on the Hudson Bay marine ecosystem: I. Re-creating past changes 1970–2009

Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are a key component of tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between the components of an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related to climate change, land and sea use, pollution, and invasive species? We conducted a literature review encompassing 166 studies covering stressors other than fishing mostly in aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled stressors were physical climate change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), and eutrophication (20), using a range of modeling techniques. Despite this comprehensive coverage, we identified four gaps that must be filled to harness the potential of EwE for studying multiple stressor effects. First, only 12% of studies investigated three or more stressors, with most studies focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many studies modeled only one of many pathways through which each stressor is known to affect ecosystems. Second, various methods have been applied to define environmental response functions representing the effects of single stressors on species groups. These functions can have a large effect on the simulated ecological changes, but best practices for deriving them are yet to emerge. Third, human dimensions of environmental change - except for fisheries - were rarely considered. Fourth, only 3% of studies used statistical research designs that allow attribution of simulated ecosystem changes to stressors' direct effects and interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use of the statistical possibilities that arise when simulations can be repeated many times with controlled changes to the inputs. We argue that all four gaps are feasibly filled by integrating ecological modeling with advances in other subfields of environmental science and in computational statistics.

Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators

Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.

A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment

Climate change (CC) is a key, global driver of change of marine ecosystems. At local and regional scales, other local human stressors (LS) can interact with CC and modify its effects on marine ecosystems. Understanding the response of the marine environment to the combined effects of CC and LS is crucial to inform marine ecosystem-based management and planning, yet our knowledge of the potential effects of such interactions is fragmented. At a global scale, we explored how cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) have addressed CC in the marine realm and discuss progress and shortcomings of current approaches. For this we conducted a systematic review on how CEAs investigated at different levels of biological organization ecological responses, functional aspects, and the combined effect of CC and HS. Globally, the effects of 52 LS and of 27 CC-related stressors on the marine environment have been studied in combination, such as industrial fisheries with change in temperature, or sea level rise with artisanal fisheries, marine litter, change in sediment load and introduced alien species. CC generally intensified the effects of LS at species level. At trophic groups and ecosystem levels, the effects of CC either intensified or mitigated the effects of other HS depending on the trophic groups or the environmental conditions involved, thus suggesting that the combined effects of CC and LS are context-dependent and vary among and within ecosystems. Our results highlight that large-scale assessments on the spatial interaction and combined effects of CC and LS remain limited. More importantly, our results strengthen the urgent need of CEAs to capture local-scale effects of stressors that can exacerbate climate-induced changes. Ultimately, this will allow identifying management measures that aid counteracting CC effects at relevant scales.

Assessing the cumulative environmental effects of marine renewable energy developments: Establishing common ground

Assessing and managing the cumulative impacts of human activities on the environment remains a major challenge to sustainable development. This challenge is highlighted by the worldwide expansion of marine renewable energy developments (MREDs) in areas already subject to multiple activities and climate change. Cumulative effects assessments in theory provide decision makers with adequate information about how the environment will respond to the incremental effects of licensed activities and are a legal requirement in many nations. In practise, however, such assessments are beset by uncertainties resulting in substantial delays during the licensing process that reduce MRED investor confidence and limit progress towards meeting climate change targets. In light of these targets and ambitions to manage the marine environment sustainably, reducing the uncertainty surrounding MRED effects and cumulative effects assessment are timely and vital. This review investigates the origins and evolution of cumulative effects assessment to identify why the multitude of approaches and pertinent research have emerged, and discusses key considerations and challenges relevant to assessing the cumulative effects of MREDs and other activities on ecosystems. The review recommends a shift away from the current reliance on disparate environmental impact assessments and limited strategic environmental assessments, and a move towards establishing a common system of coordinated data and research relative to ecologically meaningful areas, focussed on the needs of decision makers tasked with protecting and conserving marine ecosystems and services.

Anadromous char as an alternate food choice to marine animals: a synthesis of Hg concentrations, population features and other influencing factors

This study was conducted to confirm sporadic measurements made over the late 1970s to the early 1990 s which determined that mercury (Hg) concentrations were low in anadromous char across Arctic and subarctic Canada including northern Québec and Labrador. Over 2004-2013, anadromous char populations across northern Canada were investigated at 20 sites for Hg concentrations and life history characteristics. Hg concentrations were extremely low in anadromous char muscle, typically <0.05 μg/g (wet weight) and, at each location, generally increased with fish length, age and nitrogen isotope (δ(15)N) ratio and decreased with condition factor and %lipid; correlations with carbon isotope (δ(13)C) ratio were inconsistent. Location and year were significant variables influencing Hg concentrations over the study area; longitude and latitude also were significant influencing variables. Char length, weight, age, condition factor and lipid content explained additional variance. A tendency towards higher Hg concentrations with increasing latitude may be partially related to decreasing growth of char towards the north. However, Hg concentrations in char were positively correlated with growth rates suggesting that Hg concentrations in char also were higher in the more productive study areas, including to the west where mainland riverine inputs of terrestrial carbon, nutrients, and Hg were greater. The data base for assessing time trends in char was limited by the small number of years investigated at most locations, variable fish size across years, small sample size, etc. Where temporal trends were detected, they were of increase on the long term (1970s, 1980s or early 1990 s to the present) but of decrease on the short term (early 2000s to present) with Nain (Labrador) showing the converse pattern. Higher Hg concentrations were also related to lower condition factor and cooler springs. Hg concentrations in anadromous char are compared with other terrestrial, aquatic and marine vertebrates in traditional diets. The known information on anadromous char is reviewed including population features, habitat, and harvests. Future Hg trend monitoring should focus on specific locations and harvest areas within these areas to better assess trends and influencing factors.