Modelling plant population size and extinction thresholds from habitat loss and habitat fragmentation: Effects of neighbouring competition and dispersal strategy

Complex nonmonotonic responses of biodiversity to habitat destruction

It has typically been assumed that habitat destruction, characterized by habitat loss and fragmentation, has consistently negative effects on biodiversity. While numerous empirical studies have shown the detrimental effects of habitat loss, debate continues as to whether habitat fragmentation has universally negative effects. To explore the effects of habitat fragmentation, we developed a simple model for site-occupancy dynamics in fragmented landscapes. With the model, we demonstrate that a competition-colonization trade-off can result in nonlinear oscillatory responses in biodiversity to both habitat loss and fragmentation. However, the overall pattern of habitat loss reducing species richness is still established, in line with empirical observations. Interestingly, the existence of localized oscillations in biodiversity can explain the mixed responses of species richness to habitat fragmentation per se observed in nature, thereby reconciling the debate on the fragmentation-diversity relationship. Therefore, this study offers a parsimonious mechanistic explanation for empirically observed biodiversity patterns in response to habitat destruction.

Conservation planning for the endemic and endangered medicinal plants under the climate change and human disturbance: a case study of Gentiana manshurica in China

Human activities and climate change have significantly impacted the quantity and sustainable utilization of medicinal plants. Gentiana manshurica Kitagawa, a high-quality original species of Gentianae Radix et Rhizoma, has significant medicinal value. However, wild resources have experienced a sharp decline due to human excavation, habitat destruction, and other factors. Consequently, it has been classified as an Endangered (EN) species on the IUCN Red List and is considered a third-level national key-protected medicinal material in China. The effects of climate change on G. manshurica are not yet known in the context of the severe negative impacts of climate change on most species. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the current and future potential distribution of G. manshurica. In addition, land use data in 1980, 2000, and 2020 were used to calculate habitat quality by InVEST model and landscape fragmentation by the Fragstats model. Finally, using the above-calculated results, the priority protection areas and wild tending areas of G. manshurica were planned in ZONATION software. The results show that the suitable area is mainly distributed in the central part of the Songnen Plain. Bio15, bio03, bio01, and clay content are the environmental variables affecting the distribution. In general, the future potential distribution is expected to show an increasing trend. However, the species is expected to become threatened as carbon emission scenarios and years increase gradually. At worst, the high suitability area is expected to disappear completely under SSP585-2090s. Combined with the t-test, this could be due to pressure from bio01. The migration trends of climate niche centroid are inconsistent and do not all move to higher latitudes under different carbon emission scenarios. Over the past 40 years, habitat quality in the current potential distribution has declined yearly, and natural habitat has gradually fragmented. Existing reserves protect only 9.52% of G. manshurica's priority conservation area. To avoid extinction risk and increase the practicality of the results, we clarified the hotspot counties of priority protection area gaps and wild tending areas. These results can provide an essential reference and decision basis for effectively protecting G. manshurica under climate change.

Effects of abiotic heterogeneity on species densities and interaction strengths lead to different spatial biodiversity patterns

During community assembly, abiotic factors can influence species at multiple stages during their life history, for example by affecting early settlement or establishment probabilities and thus initial densities (route 1: abiotic effects on density), or later by affecting the strength of biotic interactions during subsequent life stages (route 2: abiotic effects on interaction strengths). Since real abiotic landscapes are multivariate and complex, how these two distinct routes of abiotic influence affect community patterns has not been quantified. Using an individual-based spatially explicit simulation model, we compared scenarios where abiotic conditions shaped initial densities, interaction strengths, or both, of plant species with unique abiotic niches. We then partitioned the effect of the abiotic landscape on community patterns into components arising from variable density, variable interaction strengths, and their interaction. Even when plants responded to identical landscapes, variable density and variable interaction strengths led to different community patterns, and their combined effects were non-additive. Variable density promoted more spatial structure, while variable interaction strengths promoted higher local species richness. We highlight important implications these findings have in applied plant community ecology.

Distribution pattern and habitat preference for Lobelia species (Campanulaceae) in five countries of East Africa

East Africa is one of the centres of distribution and diversity for Lobelia L. (Campanulaceae, sub-family Lobelioideae). Lobelia habitats in East Africa have been facing habitat fragmentation and loss, which are recognised as a major threat to biodiversity. However, previous plant conservation studies in East Africa only focused on protected areas and ignored unprotected areas. Future conservation strategies of plants, such as Lobelia, will depend on knowledge of their distribution patterns and habitat preference in East Africa. To understand the distribution pattern and the habitat preference of Lobelia in five countries (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi) of East Africa, we conducted a literature review in the seven major vegetation regions (afro-alpine, afro-montane forest, drier savannah, grasslands, wetter savannah, Zambezian woodland and semi-desert and desert). We also employed meander and patterned searches, which allowed greater opportunities for recording Lobelia species. Our results showed that the genus is distributed in all of the seven regions of the five countries with 54 taxa. The afro-montane forest region, with 41 taxa, is the richest in species diversity, followed by the Zambezian woodland region with 18 taxa. The semi-desert and desert region has the lowest number with only four taxa. The afro-alpine region has 15 taxa, although the region is the smallest by area. The herbaceous type was found in all regions, while the giant type has a clear preference for the afro-alpine and afro-montane forest regions. Future conservation for Lobelia should consider its habitat preference by, for example, focusing on the afro-alpine and afro-montane forest regions. This study will facilitate the setting of future conservation strategies for Lobelia.

Metacommunity robustness of plant-fly-wasp tripartite networks with specialization to habitat loss

Recent observations have found plant-species-specific fly-host selection (i.e., specialization) of wasp parasitoids (wasps) in plant-fly-wasp (P-F-W) tripartite networks, yet no study has explored the dynamical implications of such high-order specialization for the persistence of this network. Here we develop a patch-dynamic framework for a unique P-F-W tripartite network with specialization observed in eastern Tibetan Plateau and explore its metacommunity robustness to habitat loss. We show that specialization in parasitoidism promotes fly species diversity, while the richness of both plant and wasp decreases. Compared to other two null models, real network structure favors plant species coexistence but increases the extinction risk for both flies and wasps. However, these effects of specialization and network structure would be weakened and ultimately disappear with increasing habitat loss. Interestingly, intermediate levels of habitat loss can maximize the diversity of flies and wasps, while increasing or decreasing habitat loss results in more species losses, supporting intermediate disturbance hypothesis. Finally, we observe that high levels of habitat loss initiate a bottom-up cascade of species extinction from plants to both flies and wasps, resulting in a rapid collapse of the whole tripartite networks. Overall, this theoretical framework is the first attempt to characterize the dynamics of whole tripartite metacommunities interacting in realistic high-order ways, offering new insights into complex multipartite networks.

The role of omnivory in mediating metacommunity robustness to habitat destruction

Omnivores have long been known to play an important role in determining the stability of ecological communities. Recent theoretical studies have suggested that they may also increase the resilience of their communities to habitat destruction, one of the major drivers of species extinctions globally. However, these outcomes were obtained for minimal food webs consisting of only a single omnivore and its prey species, while much more complex communities can be anticipated in nature. In this study, we undertake a systematic comparative analysis of the robustness of metacommunities containing various omnivory structures to habitat loss and fragmentation using a mathematical model. We observe that, in general, omnivores are better able to survive facing habitat destruction than specialist predators of similar trophic level. However, the community as a whole does not always benefit from the presence of omnivores, as they may drive their intraguild prey to extinction. We also analyze the frequency with which these modules occur in a set of empirical food webs, and demonstrate that variation in their rate of occurrence is consistent with our model predictions. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering the complete food web in which an omnivore is embedded, suggesting that future study should focus on more holistic community analysis.

Modelling the resilience of seagrass communities exposed to pulsed freshwater discharges: A seascape approach

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) communities display complex patch dynamics at seascape scales that are presently poorly understood as most studies of disturbance on SAV habitats have focused on changes in biomass at small, quadrat-level scales. In this study, analyses of remote sensing imagery and population modelling were applied to understand SAV patch dynamics and forecast the fate of these important communities in Biscayne Bay, Miami, Florida, US. We evaluated how the proximity of freshwater canals influences seagrass-dominated SAV patch dynamics and, in turn, how patch-size structure influences the stability of seagrass seascapes under different salinity scenarios. Seagrass fragmentation rates were higher in sites adjacent to freshwater canals compared to sites distant from the influences of freshwater deliveries. Furthermore, we documented a clear trend in patch mortality rates with respect to patch size, with the smallest patches (50 m²) undergoing 57% annual mortality on average. The combination of higher fragmentation rates and the higher mortality of smaller seagrass patches in habitats exposed to pulses of low salinity raises concern for the long-term persistence of seagrass meadows in nearshore urban habitats of Biscayne Bay that are presently targets of Everglades restoration. Our model scenarios that simulated high fragmentation rates resulted in SAV population collapses, regardless of SAV recruitment rates. The combined remote sensing and population modelling approach used here provides evaluation and predictive tools that can be used by managers to track seagrass status and stress-response at seascape levels not available previously for the seagrasses of South Florida.

Habitat heterogeneity mediates effects of individual variation on spatial species coexistence

Numerous studies have documented the importance of individual variation (IV) in determining the outcome of competition between species. However, little is known about how the interplay between IV and habitat heterogeneity (i.e. variation and spatial autocorrelation in habitat quality) affects species coexistence at the landscape scale. Here, we incorporate habitat heterogeneity into a competition model with IV, in order to explore the mechanism of spatial species coexistence. We find that individual-level variation and habitat heterogeneity interact to promote species coexistence, more obviously at lower dispersal rates. This is in stark contrast to early non-spatial models, which predicted that IV reinforces competitive hierarchies and therefore speeds up species exclusion. In essence, increasing variation in patch quality and/or spatial habitat autocorrelation moderates differences in the competitive ability of species, thereby allowing species to coexist both locally and globally. Overall, our theoretical study offers a mechanistic explanation for emerging empirical evidence that both habitat heterogeneity and IV promote species coexistence and therefore biodiversity maintenance.

Species traits, patch turnover and successional dynamics: when does intermediate disturbance favour metapopulation occupancy?

Background

In fragmented landscapes, natural and anthropogenic disturbances coupled with successional processes result in the destruction and creation of habitat patches. Disturbances are expected to reduce metapopulation occupancy for species associated with stable habitats, but they may benefit species adapted to transitory habitats by maintaining a dynamic mosaic of successional stages. However, while early-successional species may be favoured by very frequent disturbances resetting successional dynamics, metapopulation occupancy may be highest at intermediate disturbance levels for species with mid-successional habitat preferences, though this may be conditional on species traits and patch network characteristics. Here we test this ‘intermediate disturbance hypothesis’ applied to metapopulations (MIDH), using stochastic patch occupancy simulation modelling to assess when does intermediate disturbance favour metapopulation occupancy. We focused on 54 virtual species varying in their habitat preferences, dispersal abilities and local extinction and colonization rates. Long-term metapopulation dynamics was estimated in landscapes with different habitat amounts and patch turnover rates (i.e. disturbance frequency).

Results

Equilibrium metapopulation occupancy by late-successional species strongly declined with increasing disturbance frequency, while occupancy by early-successional species increased with disturbance frequency at low disturbance levels and tended to level-off thereafter. Occupancy by mid-successional species tended to increase along with disturbance frequency at low disturbance levels and declining thereafter. Irrespective of habitat preferences, occupancy increased with the amount of habitat, and with species dispersal ability and colonisation efficiency.

Conclusions

Our study suggests that MIDH is verified only for species associated with mid-successional habitats. These species may be particularly sensitive to land use changes causing either increases or decreases in disturbance frequency. This may be the case, for instance, of species associated with traditional agricultural and pastoral mosaic landscapes, where many species disappear either through intensification or abandonment processes that change disturbance frequency.

Implications of macroalgae blooms to the spatial structure of seagrass seascapes: The case of the Anadyomene spp. (Chlorophyta) bloom in Biscayne Bay, Florida

Macroalgal blooms are becoming an increasing problem in coastal regions worldwide and have been associated with a widespread decline of seagrass habitats. It is critical to measure macroalgal bloom (MB) impacts at broad spatial scales since seagrass seascape characteristics can influence feedback processes that regulate the resilience of seagrass ecosystems. We assessed the broad-scale spatial impacts of an MB formed by Anadyomene spp. on the seagrass seascapes in Biscayne Bay (Miami, US) using a multi-scale seascape approach. By integrating field and remote sensing data, our multi-scale approach showed significant reductions in seagrass foliage cover and a seascape structure transformation across the bloom extent. The landscape cover and patch extensiveness declined after the MB peak. Other spatial pattern metrics also showed that the seagrass seascape structure got fragmented. We demonstrated that a persistent MB could transform the structure of seagrass seascapes, hindering the resilience of seagrass habitats.

Food web persistence in fragmented landscapes

Habitat destruction, characterized by patch loss and fragmentation, is a key driver of biodiversity loss. There has been some progress in the theory of spatial food webs; however, to date, practically nothing is known about how patch configurational fragmentation influences multi-trophic food web dynamics. We develop a spatially extended patch-dynamic model for different food webs by linking patch connectivity with trophic-dependent dispersal (i.e. higher trophic levels displaying longer-range dispersal). Using this model, we find that species display different sensitivities to patch loss and fragmentation, depending on their trophic position and the overall food web structure. Relative to other food webs, omnivory structure significantly increases system robustness to habitat destruction, as feeding on different trophic levels increases the omnivore's persistence. Additionally, in food webs with a dispersal-competition trade-off between species, intermediate levels of habitat destruction can enhance biodiversity by creating refuges for the weaker competitor. This demonstrates that maximizing patch connectivity is not always effective for biodiversity maintenance, as in food webs containing indirect competition, doing so may lead to further species loss.

Modeling the impact of reproductive mode on masting

Masting is defined as the intermittent highly variable production of seed in a plant population. According to reproductive modes, that is, sexual and asexual reproduction, masting species can be separated into three groups, that is, (1) species, for example, bamboo, flower only once before they die; (2) species, for example, Fagus, reproduce sexually; and (3) species, for example, Stipa tenacissima, reproduce both sexually and asexually. Several theories have been proposed to explore the underlying mechanisms of masting. However, to our knowledge, no theory has been found to explain the mechanism of masting species that reproduce both sexually and asexually. Here we refine the Resource Budget Model by considering a trade-off between sexual and asexual reproduction. Besides the depletion efficient (i.e., the ratio of the cost of seed setting and the cost of flowering), other factors, such as the annual remaining resource (i.e., the rest of the resource from the photosynthetic activity after allocating to growth and maintenance), the trade-off between sexual and asexual reproduction, and the reproductive thresholds, also affect masting. Moreover, two potential reproductive strategies are found to explain the mechanisms: (1) When the annual remaining resource is relatively low, plants reproduce asexually and a part of the resource is accumulated as the cost of asexual reproduction is less than the annual remaining resource. Plants flower and set fruits once the accumulated resource exceeds the threshold of sexual reproduction; (2) when the annual remaining resource is relatively high, and the accumulated resource surpasses the threshold of sexual reproduction, masting occurs. Remarkably, under certain depletion efficient, more investigation in sexual reproduction will lead plants to reproduce periodically. Additionally, plants investigate less resource to reproduce periodically when depletion efficient keeps increasing as plants can reproduce efficiently. Overall, our study provides new insights into the interpretation of masting, especially for species that reproduce both sexually and asexually.

Coexistence of species with different dispersal across landscapes: a critical role of spatial correlation in disturbance

Disturbance is key to maintaining species diversity in plant communities. Although the effects of disturbance frequency and extent on species diversity have been studied, we do not yet have a mechanistic understanding of how these aspects of disturbance interact with spatial structure of disturbance to influence species diversity. Here we derive a novel pair approximation model to explore competitive outcomes in a two-species system subject to spatially correlated disturbance. Generally, spatial correlation in disturbance favoured long-range dispersers, while distance-limited dispersers were greatly suppressed. Interestingly, high levels of spatial aggregation of disturbance promoted long-term species coexistence that is not possible in the absence of disturbance, but only when the local disperser was intrinsically competitively superior. However, spatial correlation in disturbance led to different competitive outcomes, depending on the disturbed area. Concerning ecological conservation and management, we theoretically demonstrate that introducing a spatially correlated disturbance to the system or altering an existing disturbance regime can be a useful strategy either to control species invasion or to promote species coexistence. Disturbance pattern analysis may therefore provide new insights into biodiversity conservation.

Robustness of metacommunities with omnivory to habitat destruction: disentangling patch fragmentation from patch loss

Habitat destruction, characterized by patch loss and fragmentation, is a major driving force of species extinction, and understanding its mechanisms has become a central issue in biodiversity conservation. Numerous studies have explored the effect of patch loss on food web dynamics, but ignored the critical role of patch fragmentation. Here we develop an extended patch-dynamic model for a tri-trophic omnivory system with trophic-dependent dispersal in fragmented landscapes. We found that species display different vulnerabilities to both patch loss and fragmentation, depending on their dispersal range and trophic position. The resulting trophic structure varies depending on the degree of habitat loss and fragmentation, due to a tradeoff between bottom-up control on omnivores (dominated by patch loss) and dispersal limitation on intermediate consumers (dominated by patch fragmentation). Overall, we find that omnivory increases system robustness to habitat destruction relative to a simple food chain.

An extended patch-dynamic framework for food chains in fragmented landscapes

Habitat destruction, a key determinant of species loss, can be characterized by two components, patch loss and patch fragmentation, where the former refers to the reduction in patch availability, and the latter to the division of the remaining patches. Classical metacommunity models have recently explored how food web dynamics respond to patch loss, but the effects of patch fragmentation have largely been overlooked. Here we develop an extended patch-dynamic model that tracks the patch occupancy of the various trophic links subject to colonization-extinction-predation dynamics by incorporating species dispersal with patch connectivity. We found that, in a simple food chain, species at higher trophic level become extinct sooner with increasing patch loss and fragmentation due to the constraint in resource availability, confirming the trophic rank hypothesis. Yet, effects of fragmentation on species occupancy are largely determined by patch loss, with maximal fragmentation effects occurring at intermediate patch loss. Compared to the spatially explicit simulations that we also performed, the current model with pair approximation generates similar community patterns especially in spatially clustered landscapes. Overall, our extended framework can be applied to model more complex food webs in fragmented landscapes, broadening the scope of existing metacommunity theory.

Species extinction thresholds in the face of spatially correlated periodic disturbance

The spatial correlation of disturbance is gaining attention in landscape ecology, but knowledge is still lacking on how species traits determine extinction thresholds under spatially correlated disturbance regimes. Here we develop a pair approximation model to explore species extinction risk in a lattice-structured landscape subject to aggregated periodic disturbance. Increasing disturbance extent and frequency accelerated population extinction irrespective of whether dispersal was local or global. Spatial correlation of disturbance likewise increased species extinction risk, but only for local dispersers. This indicates that models based on randomly simulated disturbances (e.g., mean-field or non-spatial models) may underestimate real extinction rates. Compared to local dispersal, species with global dispersal tolerated more severe disturbance, suggesting that the spatial correlation of disturbance favors long-range dispersal from an evolutionary perspective. Following disturbance, intraspecific competition greatly enhanced the extinction risk of distance-limited dispersers, while it surprisingly did not influence the extinction thresholds of global dispersers, apart from decreasing population density to some degree. As species respond differently to disturbance regimes with different spatiotemporal properties, different regimes may accommodate different species.