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Capblancq T, Munson H, Butnor JR, Keller SR. Genomic drivers of early-life fitness in Picea rubens. CONSERV GENET 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s10592-021-01378-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tree Species of the Eastern US: Results of DISTRIB-II Modeling. FORESTS 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/f10040302] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Forests across the globe are faced with a rapidly changing climate and an enhanced understanding of how these changing conditions may impact these vital resources is needed. Our approach is to use DISTRIB-II, an updated version of the Random Forest DISTRIB model, to model 125 tree species individually from the eastern United States to quantify potential current and future habitat responses under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 -high emissions which is our current trajectory and RCP 4.5 -lower emissions by implementing energy conservation) and three climate models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. On average, of the 125 species, approximately 88 species would gain and 26 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat. The projected change in the center of gravity for each species distribution (i.e., mean center) between current and future habitat moves generally northeast, with 81 species habitat centers potentially moving over 100 km under RCP 8.5. Collectively, our results suggest that many species will experience less pressure in tracking their suitable habitats under a path of lower greenhouse gas emissions.
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Atkins JW, Epstein HE, Welsch DL. Using Landsat imagery to map understory shrub expansion relative to landscape position in a mid-Appalachian watershed. Ecosphere 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jeff W. Atkins
- Department of Environmental Sciences; University of Virginia; Charlottesville Virginia 22901 USA
- Virginia Commonwealth University; Richmond Virginia 23284 USA
| | - Howard E. Epstein
- Department of Environmental Sciences; University of Virginia; Charlottesville Virginia 22901 USA
| | - Daniel L. Welsch
- American Public University System; Charles Town West Virginia 25414 USA
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Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of Red Spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of the USA: Understanding Complex Systems Mechanisms through Modeling. FORESTS 2015. [DOI: 10.3390/f6041208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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