A model framework for tree leaf colouring in Europe

Weakened connection between spring leaf-out and autumn senescence in the Northern Hemisphere

Vegetation autumn phenology is critical in regulating the ecosystem carbon cycle and regional climate. However, the dominant drivers of autumn senescence and their temporal shifts under climate change remain poorly understood. Here, we conducted a multi-factor analysis considering both direct climatic controls and biological carryover effects from start-of-season (SOS) and seasonal peak vegetation activities on the end-of-season (EOS) to fill these knowledge gaps. Combining satellite and ground observations across the northern hemisphere, we found that carryover effects from early-to-peak vegetation activities exerted greater influence on EOS than the direct climatic controls on nearly half of the vegetated land. Unexpectedly, the carryover effects from SOS on EOS have significantly weakened over recent decades, accompanied by strengthened climatic controls. Such results indicate the weakened constraint of leaf longevity on senescence due to prolonged growing season in response to climate change. These findings underscore the important role of biological carryover effects in regulating vegetation autumn senescence under climate change, which should be incorporated into the formulation and enhancement of phenology modules utilized in land surface models.

Modeling leaf senescence of deciduous tree species in Europe

Autumnal leaf senescence signals the end of photosynthetic activities in temperate deciduous trees and consequently exerts a strong control on various ecological processes. Predicting leaf senescence dates (LSD) with high accuracy is thus a prerequisite for better understanding the climate-ecosystem interactions. However, modeling LSD at large spatial and temporal scales is challenging. In this study, first, we used 19972 site-year records (848 sites and four deciduous tree species) from the PAN European Phenology network to calibrate and evaluate six leaf senescence models during the period 1980-2013. Second, we extended the spatial analysis by repeating the procedure across Europe using satellite-derived end of growing season and a forest map. Overall, we found that models that considered photoperiod and temperature interactions outperformed models using simple temperature or photoperiod thresholds for Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur. On the contrary, no model displayed reasonable predictions for Aesculus hippocastanum. This inter-model comparison indicates that, contrary to expectation, photoperiod does not significantly modulate the accumulation of cooling degree days (CDD). On the other hand, considering the carryover effect of leaf unfolding date could promote the models' predictability. The CDD models generally matched the observed LSD at species level and its interannual variation, but were limited in explaining the inter-site variations, indicating that other environmental cues need to be considered in future model development. The discrepancies remaining between model simulations and observations highlight the need of manipulation studies to elucidate the mechanisms behind the leaf senescence process and to make current models more realistic.

Nutrient availability alters the correlation between spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence dates

Leaf senescence (LS) affects tree fitness, species distribution and ecosystem structure and functioning. The drivers of LS and the processes underlying it have been studied, but the studies have mainly focused on environmental cues and have mainly been based on statistical analyses using in situ data sets. Experimental investigation and field verification of the processes and drivers are thus urgently needed. We conducted a nutrient-addition experiment after a spring-warming experiment in which an ~40-day range of leaf-out (LO) dates was induced in horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) saplings. We found that both increased nutrient supply and advanced LO date significantly affected the timing of LS, but their effects were opposite, as the former delayed and the latter advanced the senescence. The effects of nutrient supply and LO interacted species specifically. In chestnut, the delay of senescence caused by fertilization increased with the delay of LO and was thus stronger for individuals that flushed late in the spring. On the contrary, in beech the delay of senescence caused by fertilization decreased with the delay of LO and was insignificant for individuals with the latest LO. The experimental findings for beech were confirmed with mature trees at a regional scale. The interactive effect between nutrients and LO on senescence may be associated with variable sensitivity to photoperiod, growth sink limitation and/or direct effect of foliar nutrition on the timing of senescence. Our novel results show that the interactive effects of LO and nutrient supply on the timing of LS should be further addressed experimentally in forthcoming studies. It would also be interesting to consider our results in the further development of phenological models used in assessing the effects of climatic change. The differences found in the present study between horse chestnut and beech suggest that the results found for one species cannot necessarily be generalized to other species, so studies with different temperate tree species are called for.

No trends in spring and autumn phenology during the global warming hiatus

Phenology plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, and surface energy fluxes and is sensitive to climate change. The global mean surface air temperature data indicate a global warming hiatus between 1998 and 2012, while its impacts on global phenology remains unclear. Here we use long-term satellite and FLUXNET records to examine phenology trends in the northern hemisphere before and during the warming hiatus. Our results based on the satellite record show that the phenology change rate slowed down during the warming hiatus. The analysis of the long-term FLUXNET measurements, mainly within the warming hiatus, shows that there were no widespread advancing (or delaying) trends in spring (or autumn) phenology. The lack of widespread phenology trends partly led to the lack of widespread trends in spring and autumn carbon fluxes. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the responses of phenology to climate change and the climate-carbon feedbacks.

A global warming hiatus occurred during 1998 and 2012 but its effects on phenology are unclear. Here the authors examine the trends in spring and autumn phenology in the northern hemisphere and the effects of the warming hiatus and show that phenology change rate in the northern hemisphere slowed down during the warming hiatus.

Plant phenology and global climate change: Current progresses and challenges

Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in understanding and modeling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicate the modeling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modeling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level.

Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf-out phenology

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6-8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf-out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf-out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions.

Autumn senescence in aspen is not triggered by day length

Autumn senescence in mature aspens, grown under natural conditions, is initiated at almost the same date every year. The mechanism of such precise timing is not understood but we have previously shown that the signal must be derived from light. We studied variation in bud set and autumn senescence in a collection of 116 natural Eurasian aspen (Populus tremula) genotypes, from 12 populations in Sweden and planted in one northern and one southern common garden, to test the hypothesis that onset of autumn senescence is triggered by day length. We confirmed that, although bud set seemed to be triggered by a critical photoperiod/day length, other factors may influence it. The data on initiation of autumn senescence, on the other hand, were incompatible with the trigger being the day length per se, hence the trigger must be some other light-dependent factor.

Spatial and temporal changes in leaf coloring date of Acer palmatum and Ginkgo biloba in response to temperature increases in South Korea

Understanding shifts in autumn phenology associated with climate changes is critical for preserving forest ecosystems. This study examines the changes in the leaf coloring date (LCD) of two temperate deciduous tree species, Acer palmatum (Acer) and Ginkgo biloba (Ginkgo), in response to surface air temperature (Ts) changes at 54 stations of South Korea for the period 1989–2007. The variations of Acer and Ginkgo in South Korea are very similar: they show the same mean LCD of 295th day of the year and delays of about 0.45 days year^-1 during the observation period. The delaying trend is closely correlated (correlation coefficient > 0.77) with increases in Ts in mid-autumn by 2.8 days °C^-1. It is noted that the LCD delaying and temperature sensitivity (days °C^-1) for both tree species show negligible dependences on latitudes and elevations. Given the significant LCD-Ts relation, we project LCD changes for 2016–35 and 2046–65 using a process-based model forced by temperature from climate model simulation. The projections indicate that the mean LCD would be further delayed by 3.2 (3.7) days in 2016–35 (2046–65) due to mid-autumn Ts increases. This study suggests that the mid-autumn warming is largely responsible for the observed LCD changes in South Korea and will intensify the delaying trends in the future.