Evaluating land cover influences on model uncertainties—A case study of cropland carbon dynamics in the Mid-Continent Intensive Campaign region

A Comparison of Raster-Based Forestland Data in Cropland Data Layer and the National Land Cover Database

The National Agricultural Statistics Service, the statistical arm of the US Department of Agriculture, and the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium, a group of the US federal agencies, collect and publish several land-use and land-cover data sets. The aim of this study is to analyze the consistency of forestland estimates based on two widely used, publicly available products: the National Land-Cover Database (NLCD) and Cropland Data Layer (CDL). Both remote-sensing-based products provide raster-formatted land-cover categorization at a spatial resolution of 30 m. Although the processing of the yearly published CDL non-agricultural land-cover data is based on less frequently updated NLCD, the consistency of large-area forestland mapping between these two datasets has not been assessed. To assess the similarities and the differences between CDL- and NLCD-based forestland mappings for the state of North Carolina, we overlay the two data products for the years 2011 and 2016 in ArcMap 10.5.1 and analyze the location and attributes of the matched and mismatched forestland. We find that the mismatch is relatively smaller for the areas of the state where forests occupy larger shares of the total land, and that the relative mismatch is smaller in 2011 when compared to 2016. We also find that a large portion of the forestland mismatch is attributable to the dynamics of re-growth of periodically harvested and otherwise disturbed forests. Our results underscore the need for a holistic approach to data preparation, data attribution, and data accuracy when performing high-scale map-based analyses using each of these products.