Spatially-explicit model for assessing wild dog control strategies in Western Australia

Pathways to coexistence with dingoes across Australian farming landscapes

Introduction

Agriculture and biodiversity conservation are both vitally important human activities that overlap geographically and are often in conflict. Animal agriculture has been implicated in species loss and the degradation of ecosystems due to land clearing, overgrazing, and conflicts with large carnivores such as dingoes (Canis dingo). This paper explores the potential for transformation in Australian commercial livestock production from human-dingo conflict towards social-ecological coexistence.

Method

A qualitative model that depicts transformative change was developed from field observations and twenty-one in-depth interviews with livestock producers, conservation researchers, grazing industry representatives and policy makers across Australia. The model articulates the current state of dingo management and the drivers of system change.

Results

Seven pathways are described to catalyse transformation from routine lethal management of dingoes towards a future vision that embeds mutually beneficial coexistence. Central to transformation is the adoption by livestock producers of preventive non-lethal innovations supported by a new farming movement, Predator Smart Farming, that balances livestock grazing and wildlife conservation values to unlock the resilience of landscapes, animals (domesticated and wild) and livelihoods. Other key pathways include targeted research, capacity building, outreach and knowledge sharing networks; institutional (policy, legislation, and economic incentives) and cultural change; public awareness raising and advocacy to reduce lethal control; and greater involvement of Indigenous Australians in decisions relating to wildlife management.

Discussion

The seven transition pathways are discussed in relation to how they can collectively foster coexistence with dingoes in extensive rangelands grazing systems. International examples of interventions are used to illustrate the types of successful actions associated with each pathway that could inform action in Australia. The findings have implications for coexistence with large carnivores in rangeland ecosystems globally.

Land use and dingo baiting are correlated with the density of kangaroos in rangeland systems

Rangelands worldwide have been subject to broadscale modification, such as widespread predator control, introduction of permanent livestock water and altered vegetation to improve grazing. In Australia, these landscape changes have resulted in kangaroos (i.e. large macropods) populations increasing over the past 200 years. Kangaroos are a key contributor to total grazing pressure and in conjunction with livestock and feral herbivores have been linked to land degradation. We used 22 years of aerial survey data to investigate whether the density of 3 macropod species in the southern rangelands of Western Australia was associated with: (i) land use, including type of livestock, total livestock, density of feral goats, type of land tenure, and kangaroo commercial harvest effort; (ii) predator management, including permitted dingo control effort, estimated dingo abundance, and presence of the State Barrier Fence (a dingo exclusion fence); and (iii) environmental variables: ruggedness, rainfall, fractional cover, and total standing dry matter. Red kangaroos (Osphranter rufus) were most abundant in flat, open vegetation, on pastoral land, where area permitted for dingo control was high, and numbers were positively associated with antecedent rainfall with a 12-month delay. Western grey kangaroos (Macropus fuliginosus) were most abundant on flat, agricultural land, but less abundant in areas with high permitted dingo control. Euros (Osphranter robustus) were most abundant in rugged pastoral land with open vegetation, where permitted dingo control was high. While environmental variables are key drivers of landscape productivity and kangaroo populations, anthropogenic factors such as land use and permitted dingo control are strongly associated with kangaroo abundance.

Setting Statistical Thresholds Is Useful to Define Truly Effective Conservation Interventions

Effective interventions are needed to solve conflicts between humans and predators over livestock killing, nuisance behavior, and attacks on pets and humans. Progress in quantification of evidence-based effectiveness and selection of the best interventions raises new questions, such as the existence of thresholds to identify truly effective interventions. Current classification of more and less effective interventions is subjective and statistically unjustified. This study describes a novel method to differentiate true and untrue effectiveness on a basis of false positive risk (FPR). I have collected 152 cases of applications of damage-reducing interventions from 102 scientific publications, 26 countries, 22 predator species, and 6 categories of interventions. The analysis has shown that the 95% confidence interval of the relative risk of predator-caused damage was 0.10–0.25 for true effectiveness (FPR < 0.05) and 0.35–0.56 for untrue effectiveness (FPR ≥ 0.05). This means that damage was reduced by 75–90% for truly effective interventions and by 44–65% for interventions of untrue effectiveness. Based on this, it was specified that truly effective interventions have the relative risk ≤ 0.25 (damage reduction ≥ 75%) and the effectiveness of interventions with the relative risk > 0.25 (damage reduction < 75%) is untrue. This threshold is statistically well-justified, stable, easy to remember, and practical to use in anti-predator interventions. More research is essential to know how this threshold holds true for other conservation interventions aiming to reduce negative outcomes (e.g., poaching rates) or increase positive outcomes (e.g., species richness).

A novel modelling framework to explicitly simulate predator interaction with poison baits

Abstract ContextManagement of human–wildlife conflicts is of critical importance for both wildlife conservation and agricultural production. Population models are commonly used to simulate population dynamics and their responses to management actions. However, it is essential that this class of models captures the drivers and mechanisms necessary to reliably forecast future system dynamics. AimsWe aimed to develop a flexible modelling framework with the capacity to explicitly simulate individual interactions with baits (with or without the presence of other management tools), for which parameter estimates from field data are available. We also intended for the model to potentially accommodate multi-species interaction and avoidance behaviours. MethodsWe expanded an existing spatially explicit, individual-based model to directly simulate bait deployment, animal movements and bait consumption. We demonstrated the utility of this model using a case study from Western Australia where we considered two possible exclusion-fence scenarios, namely, the completion of a landscape-scale and smaller-scale fences. Within each of these proposed cells, using data obtained from a camera-trap study, we evaluated the performance of two levels of baiting to control wild dogs (Canis familiaris), in contrast with the option of no control. ResultsThe present study represents a substantial step forward in accurately modelling predator dynamics. When applying our model to the case study, for example, it was straightforward to investigate whether outcomes were sensitive to the bait-encounter probability. We could further explore interactions between baiting regimes and different fence designs and demonstrate how wild dog eradication could be achieved in the smaller cell under the more intense control scenarios. In contrast, the landscape-scale fence had only minor effects unless it was implemented as a preventive measure in an area where wild dogs were not already established. ConclusionsThe new component of the model presented here provides fine-scale control of single components of individual–bait interactions. ImplicationsThe effect of management actions (e.g. lures) that affect this process can be easily investigated. Multi-species modelling and avoidance behaviours can readily be implemented, making the present study widely relevant for a range of contexts such as multi-species competition or non-target bait uptake.

A framework of integrated research for managing introduced predators in the Pilbara bioregion, Western Australia

The effective control of wild dogs, feral cats and foxes is of primary interest to land managers, both for biodiversity conservation and for the protection of livestock. Control programs primarily target single species within the context of biodiversity conservation or livestock practices, but their effectiveness in depressing predator densities is unclear because monitoring is limited or not conducted. Here, we review and discuss the outcomes of a workshop to identify research priorities for managing predation on native fauna by introduced predators in the Pilbara bioregion in Western Australia. We suggest that the control of introduced predators will be most effective if it is implemented at a landscape-scale comprising integrated predator management that considers interspecific (predator) interactions combined with standardised monitoring to measure the effectiveness and benefits of control. Four research themes were identified: (1) collation and collection of baseline data, (2) effective monitoring of introduced predators, (3) understanding functional (ecological) roles of introduced predators within the different ecosystem contexts, and (4) identifying novel complementary approaches to protect threatened species. These themes collectively include research areas that invest in foundational, ecological and alternative biological parameters in research to close knowledge gaps related to the functional roles of introduced predators in the landscape. Addressing these research themes will assist land managers to achieve outcomes that address the needs of both biodiversity conservation and pastoral production. This framework is timely given the ongoing investment in offset funding being mobilised in the region.

Impacts of exclusion fencing on target and non-target fauna: a global review

Exclusion fencing is a common tool used to mitigate a variety of unwanted economic losses caused by problematic wildlife. While the potential for agricultural, ecological and economic benefits of pest animal exclusion are often apparent, what is less clear are the costs and benefits to sympatric non-target wildlife. This review examines the use of exclusion fencing in a variety of situations around the world to elucidate the potential outcomes of such fencing for wildlife and apply this knowledge to the recent uptake of exclusion fencing on livestock properties in the Australian rangelands. In Australia, exclusion fences are used to eliminate dingo (Canis familiaris dingo) predation on livestock, prevent crop-raiding by emus (Dromaius novaehollandiae), and enable greater control over total grazing pressure through the reduction of macropods (Macropodidae) and feral goats (Capra hircus). A total of 208 journal articles were examined for location, a broad grouping of fence type, and the reported effects the fence was having on the study species. We found 51% of the literature solely discusses intended fencing effects, 42% discusses unintended effects, and only 7% considers both. Africa has the highest proportion of unintended effects literature (52.0%) and Australia has the largest proportion of literature on intended effects (34.2%). We highlight the potential for exclusion fencing to have positive effects on some species and negative effects on others (such as predator exclusion fencing posing a barrier to migration of other species), which remain largely unaddressed in current exclusion fencing systems. From this review we were able to identify where and how mitigation strategies have been successfully used in the past. Harnessing the potential benefits of exclusion fencing while avoiding the otherwise likely costs to both target and non-target species will require more careful consideration than this issue has previously been afforded.

Conserving Australia’s threatened native mammals in predator-invaded, fire-prone landscapes

Abstract Inappropriate fire regimes and predation by introduced species each pose a major threat to Australia’s native mammals. They also potentially interact, an issue that is likely to be contributing to the ongoing collapse of native mammal communities across Australia. In the present review, I first describe the mechanisms through which fire could create predation pinch points, exacerbating the impacts of predators, including red foxes, Vulpes vulpes, and feral cats, Felis catus, on their native mammalian prey. These mechanisms include a localised increase in predator activity (a numerically mediated pathway) and higher predator hunting success after fire (a functionally moderated pathway), which could both increase native mammal mortality and limit population recovery in fire-affected landscapes. Evidence for such interactions is growing, although largely based on unreplicated experiments. Improving native mammal resilience to fire in predator-invaded landscapes requires addressing two key questions: how can the impacts of introduced predators on native mammals in fire-affected areas be reduced; and, does a reduction in predation by introduced species result in higher native mammal survival and population recovery after fire? I then examine potential management options for reducing predator impacts post-fire. The most feasible are landscape-scale predator control and the manipulation of fire regimes to create patchy fire scars. However, robust field experiments with adequate statistical power are required to assess the effectiveness of these approaches and preclude null (e.g. compensatory mortality) or adverse (e.g. mesopredator or competitor release) outcomes. Ongoing predator management and prescribed burning programs provide an opportunity to learn through replicated natural experiments as well as experimental manipulations. Standardised reporting protocols and cross-jurisdiction monitoring programs would help achieve necessary spatial and environmental replication, while multi-trophic, spatially explicit simulation models could help synthesise findings from disparate study designs, predict management outcomes and generate new hypotheses. Such approaches will be key to improving management of the complex mechanisms that drive threatened native mammal populations in Australia’s predator-invaded, fire-prone landscapes.

HexSim: a modeling environment for ecology and conservation

CONTEXT

Simulation models are increasingly used in both theoretical and applied studies to explore system responses to natural and anthropogenic forcing functions, develop defensible predictions of future conditions, challenge simplifying assumptions that facilitated past research, and to train students in scientific concepts and technology. Researcher's increased use of simulation models has created a demand for new platforms that balance performance, utility, and flexibility.

OBJECTIVES

We describe HexSim, a powerful new spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling framework that will have applications spanning diverse landscape settings, species, stressors, and disciplines (e.g. ecology, conservation, genetics, epidemiology). We begin with a model overview and follow-up with a discussion of key formative studies that influenced HexSim's development. We then describe specific model applications of relevance to readers of Landscape Ecology. Our goal is to introduce readers to this new modeling platform, and to provide examples characterizing its novelty and utility.

CONCLUSIONS

With this publication, we conclude a >10 year development effort, and assert that our HexSim model is mature, robust, extremely well tested, and ready for adoption by the research community. The HexSim model, documentation, worked examples, and other materials can be freely obtained from the website www.hexsim.net.