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Le Grix N, Cheung WL, Reygondeau G, Zscheischler J, Frölicher TL. Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:6478-6492. [PMID: 37815723 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Revised: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
Ocean extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, can have harmful impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding the risks posed by such extreme events is key to develop strategies to predict and mitigate their effects. However, the underlying ocean conditions driving severe impacts on marine ecosystems are complex and often unknown as risks to marine ecosystems arise not only from hazards but also from the interactions between hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Marine ecosystems may not be impacted by extreme events in single drivers but rather by the compounding effects of moderate ocean anomalies. Here, we employ an ensemble climate-impact modeling approach that combines a global marine fish model with output from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model, to identify the key ocean ecosystem drivers associated with the most severe impacts on the total biomass of 326 pelagic fish species. We show that low net primary productivity is the most influential driver of extremely low fish biomass over 68% of the ocean area considered by the model, especially in the subtropics and the mid-latitudes, followed by high temperature and low oxygen in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the high latitudes. Severe biomass loss is generally driven by extreme anomalies in at least one ocean ecosystem driver, except in the tropics, where a combination of moderate ocean anomalies is sufficient to drive extreme impacts. Single moderate anomalies never drive extremely low fish biomass. Compound events with either moderate or extreme ocean conditions are a necessary condition for extremely low fish biomass over 78% of the global ocean, and compound events with at least one extreme variable are a necessary condition over 61% of the global ocean. Overall, our model results highlight the crucial role of extreme and compound events in driving severe impacts on pelagic marine ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natacha Le Grix
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - William L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Jakob Zscheischler
- Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
- Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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2
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Dermawan D, Wang YF, You SJ, Jiang JJ, Hsieh YK. Impact of climatic and non-climatic stressors on ocean life and human health: A review. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 821:153387. [PMID: 35081412 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153387] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2021] [Revised: 01/19/2022] [Accepted: 01/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Ocean life forms are fundamentally well adapted to natural environmental variations, and they can even tolerate extreme conditions for a short time. However, several anthropogenic stressors are causing such drastic changes in the ocean ecosystem. First, the review attempts to outline the impact of climatic and non-climatic stressors on ocean life, and it also outlines the synergistic impact of both stressors. Then the impact on human health caused by the damage of the marine ecosystem has been discussed. Furthermore, the type of prior studies and current mitigation adaptation programs have been presented. Finally, some perspectives about future research and mitigation adaptation are offered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Denny Dermawan
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, Chung-Li 320, Taiwan; Department of Civil Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, Chung-Li 320, Taiwan
| | - Ya-Fen Wang
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, Chung-Li 320, Taiwan; Center for Environmental Risk Management, Chung Yuan Christian University, Chung-Li 32023, Taiwan
| | - Sheng-Jie You
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, Chung-Li 320, Taiwan; Center for Environmental Risk Management, Chung Yuan Christian University, Chung-Li 32023, Taiwan
| | - Jheng-Jie Jiang
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, Chung-Li 320, Taiwan; Center for Environmental Risk Management, Chung Yuan Christian University, Chung-Li 32023, Taiwan
| | - Yen-Kung Hsieh
- Marine Ecology and Conservation Research Center, National Academy of Marine Research, Kaohsiung 80661, Taiwan; Department of Environmental Science and Occupational Safety and Health, Tajen University, Pingtung, Taiwan.
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3
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Tai TC, Calosi P, Gurney-Smith HJ, Cheung WWL. Modelling ocean acidification effects with life stage-specific responses alters spatiotemporal patterns of catch and revenues of American lobster, Homarus americanus. Sci Rep 2021; 11:23330. [PMID: 34857790 PMCID: PMC8639722 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-02253-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2020] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Ocean acidification (OA) affects marine organisms through various physiological and biological processes, yet our understanding of how these translate to large-scale population effects remains limited. Here, we integrated laboratory-based experimental results on the life history and physiological responses to OA of the American lobster, Homarus americanus, into a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model to project future climate change effects on species distribution, abundance, and fisheries catch potential. Ocean acidification effects on juvenile stages had the largest stage-specific impacts on the population, while cumulative effects across life stages significantly exerted the greatest impacts, albeit quite minimal. Reducing fishing pressure leads to overall increases in population abundance while setting minimum size limits also results in more higher-priced market-sized lobsters (> 1 lb), and could help mitigate the negative impacts of OA and concurrent stressors (warming, deoxygenation). However, the magnitude of increased effects of climate change overweighs any moderate population gains made by changes in fishing pressure and size limits, reinforcing that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is most pressing and that climate-adaptive fisheries management is necessary as a secondary role to ensure population resiliency. We suggest possible strategies to mitigate impacts by preserving important population demographics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Travis C. Tai
- grid.17091.3e0000 0001 2288 9830Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 Canada
| | - Piero Calosi
- grid.265702.40000 0001 2185 197XDépartment de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1 Canada
| | - Helen J. Gurney-Smith
- grid.23618.3e0000 0004 0449 2129Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St. Andrews Biological Station, 125 Marine Science Drive, St. Andrews, NB E5B 0E4 Canada
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- grid.17091.3e0000 0001 2288 9830Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 Canada
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4
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Florko KRN, Tai TC, Cheung WWL, Ferguson SH, Sumaila UR, Yurkowski DJ, Auger-Méthé M. Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:2563-2575. [PMID: 34469020 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13866] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2021] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katie R N Florko
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Travis C Tai
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - William W L Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Steven H Ferguson
- Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - U Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - David J Yurkowski
- Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Marie Auger-Méthé
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.,Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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Wilson TJB, Cooley SR, Tai TC, Cheung WWL, Tyedmers PH. Potential socioeconomic impacts from ocean acidification and climate change effects on Atlantic Canadian fisheries. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0226544. [PMID: 31923278 PMCID: PMC6953801 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0226544] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2018] [Accepted: 11/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Ocean acidification is an emerging consequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The full extent of the biological impacts are currently not entirely defined. However, it is expected that invertebrate species that rely on the mineral calcium carbonate will be directly affected. Despite the limited understanding of the full extent of potential impacts and responses there is a need to identify potential pathways for human societies to be affected by ocean acidification. Research on these social implications is a small but developing field. This research contributes to this field by using an impact assessment framework, informed by a biophysical model of future species distributions, to investigate potential impacts facing Atlantic Canadian society from potential changes in shellfish fisheries driven by ocean acidification and climate change. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are expected to see declines in resource accessibility but are relatively socially insulated from these changes. Conversely, Prince Edward Island, along with Newfoundland and Labrador are more socially vulnerable to potential losses in fisheries, but are expected to experience relatively minor net changes in access.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tyler J. B. Wilson
- School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | | | - Travis C. Tai
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada
| | - Peter H. Tyedmers
- School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
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