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Robert E, Lenz P, Bergeron Y, de Lafontaine G, Bouriaud O, Isabel N, Girardin MP. Future carbon sequestration potential in a widespread transcontinental boreal tree species: Standing genetic variation matters! GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17347. [PMID: 38822663 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2023] [Revised: 04/26/2024] [Accepted: 05/01/2024] [Indexed: 06/03/2024]
Abstract
Climate change (CC) necessitates reforestation/afforestation programs to mitigate its impacts and maximize carbon sequestration. But comprehending how tree growth, a proxy for fitness and resilience, responds to CC is critical to maximize these programs' effectiveness. Variability in tree response to CC across populations can notably be influenced by the standing genetic variation encompassing both neutral and adaptive genetic diversity. Here, a framework is proposed to assess tree growth potential at the population scale while accounting for standing genetic variation. We applied this framework to black spruce (BS, Picea mariana [Mill] B.S.P.), with the objectives to (1) determine the key climate variables having impacted BS growth response from 1974 to 2019, (2) examine the relative roles of local adaptation and the phylogeographic structure in this response, and (3) project BS growth under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways while taking standing genetic variation into account. We modeled growth using a machine learning algorithm trained with dendroecological and genetic data obtained from over 2600 trees (62 populations divided in three genetic clusters) in four 48-year-old common gardens, and simulated growth until year 2100 at the common garden locations. Our study revealed that high summer and autumn temperatures negatively impacted BS growth. As a consequence of warming, this species is projected to experience a decline in growth by the end of the century, suggesting maladaptation to anticipated CC and a potential threat to its carbon sequestration capacity. This being said, we observed a clear difference in response to CC within and among genetic clusters, with the western cluster being more impacted than the central and eastern clusters. Our results show that intraspecific genetic variation, notably associated with the phylogeographic structure, must be considered when estimating the response of widespread species to CC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Etienne Robert
- Département des Sciences Biologiques, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
| | - Patrick Lenz
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Canadian Wood Fibre Centre, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
| | - Yves Bergeron
- Département des Sciences Biologiques, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada
- Institut de Recherche Sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada
| | - Guillaume de Lafontaine
- Canada Research Chair in Integrative Biology of the Northern Flora, Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Québec, Canada
| | - Olivier Bouriaud
- Ștefan Cel Mare University of Suceava, Suceava, Romania
- IGN, ENSG, Laboratoire d'Inventaire Forestier - LIF, Nancy, France
| | - Nathalie Isabel
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
| | - Martin P Girardin
- Département des Sciences Biologiques, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
- Institut de Recherche Sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada
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Gaboriau DM, Chaste É, Girardin MP, Asselin H, Ali AA, Bergeron Y, Hély C. Interactions within the climate-vegetation-fire nexus may transform 21st century boreal forests in northwestern Canada. iScience 2023; 26:106807. [PMID: 37255655 PMCID: PMC10225900 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Revised: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 05/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Dry and warm conditions have exacerbated the occurrence of large and severe wildfires over the past decade in Canada's Northwest Territories (NT). Although temperatures are expected to increase during the 21st century, we lack understanding of how the climate-vegetation-fire nexus might respond. We used a dynamic global vegetation model to project annual burn rates, as well as tree species composition and biomass in the NT during the 21st century using the IPCC's climate scenarios. Burn rates will decrease in most of the NT by the mid-21st century, concomitant with biomass loss of fire-prone evergreen needleleaf tree species, and biomass increase of broadleaf tree species. The southeastern NT is projected to experience enhanced fire activity by the late 21st century according to scenario RCP4.5, supported by a higher production of flammable evergreen needleleaf biomass. The results underlie the potential for major impacts of climate change on the NT's terrestrial ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dorian M. Gaboriau
- Institut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 Boulevard de l’Université, Rouyn-Noranda, QCJ9X 5E4, Canada
- Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, P.O. Box 8888, Stn. Centre-ville, Montréal, QCH3C 3P8, Canada
| | - Émeline Chaste
- Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE, SILVAE, 54000 Nancy, France
- Now at: CIRAD, UMR Eco&Sols, University Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Martin P. Girardin
- Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, P.O. Box 8888, Stn. Centre-ville, Montréal, QCH3C 3P8, Canada
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 rue du PEPS, P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Sainte-Foy, Québec, QCG1V 4C7, Canada
| | - Hugo Asselin
- Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, P.O. Box 8888, Stn. Centre-ville, Montréal, QCH3C 3P8, Canada
- École d’études autochtones, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 Boulevard de l’Université, Rouyn-Noranda, QCJ9X 5E4, Canada
| | - Adam A. Ali
- ISEM, University Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Montpellier, France
| | - Yves Bergeron
- Institut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 Boulevard de l’Université, Rouyn-Noranda, QCJ9X 5E4, Canada
- Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, P.O. Box 8888, Stn. Centre-ville, Montréal, QCH3C 3P8, Canada
| | - Christelle Hély
- ISEM, University Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Montpellier, France
- École Pratique des Hautes Etudes, PSL University, Paris, France
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Bélisle AC, Gauthier S, Asselin H. Integrating Indigenous and scientific perspectives on environmental changes: Insights from boreal landscapes. PEOPLE AND NATURE 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/pan3.10399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Annie Claude Bélisle
- Institut de recherche sur les forêts Université du Québec en Abitibi‐Témiscamingue Rouyn‐Noranda Québec Canada
- Conseil de la Première Nation Abitibiwinni, Territoire et environnement Pikogan Québec Canada
| | - Sylvie Gauthier
- Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre Québec City Québec Canada
| | - Hugo Asselin
- School of Indigenous Studies Université du Québec en Abitibi‐Témiscamingue Rouyn‐Noranda Québec Canada
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