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Testolin R, Dalmonech D, Marano G, Bagnara M, D'Andrea E, Matteucci G, Noce S, Collalti A. Simulating diverse forest management options in a changing climate on a Pinus nigra subsp. laricio plantation in Southern Italy. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 857:159361. [PMID: 36252656 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Revised: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 10/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Mediterranean pine plantations provide several ecosystem services but are vulnerable to climate change. Forest management might play a strategic role in the adaptation of Mediterranean forests, but the joint effect of climate change and diverse management options have seldom been investigated together. Here, we simulated the development of a Laricio pine (Pinus nigra subsp. laricio) stand in the Bonis watershed (southern Italy) from its establishment in 1958 up to 2095 using a state-of-the-science process-based forest model. The model was run under three climate scenarios corresponding to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration and warming, and six management options with different goals, including wood production and renaturalization. We analysed the effect of climate change on annual carbon fluxes (i.e., gross and net primary production) and stocks (i.e., basal area, standing and harvested carbon woody stocks) of the autotrophic compartment, as well as the impact of different management options compared to a no management baseline. Results show that higher temperatures (+3 to +5 °C) and lower precipitation (-20 % to -22 %) will trigger a decrease in net primary productivity in the second half of the century. Compared to no management, the other options had a moderate effect on carbon fluxes over the whole simulation (between -14 % and +11 %). While standing woody biomass was reduced by thinning interventions and the shelterwood system (between -5 % and -41 %), overall carbon stocks including the harvested wood were maximized (between +41 % and +56 %). Results highlight that management exerts greater effects on the carbon budget of Laricio pine plantations than climate change alone, and that climate change and management are largely independent (i.e., no strong interaction effects). Therefore, appropriate silvicultural strategies might enhance potential carbon stocks and improve forest conditions, with cascading positive effects on the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean pine plantations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Riccardo Testolin
- National Research Council of Italy, Forest Modelling Lab., Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, Italy; BIOME Lab., Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Via Irnerio 42, 40126 Bologna, Italy; Centro Interuniversitario per la Biodiversità Vegetale Big Data - PLANT DATA, Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Via Irnerio 42, 40126 Bologna, Italy; LifeWatch, Italy.
| | - Daniela Dalmonech
- National Research Council of Italy, Forest Modelling Lab., Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, Italy
| | - Gina Marano
- National Research Council of Italy, Forest Modelling Lab., Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, Italy; Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Maurizio Bagnara
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiKF), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt Am Main, Germany
| | - Ettore D'Andrea
- National Research Council of Italy, Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems (CNR-IRET), Via G. Marconi n. 2, 05010 Porano, Italy
| | - Giorgio Matteucci
- National Research Council of Italy, Institute of BioEconomy (CNR-IBE), via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Italy
| | - Sergio Noce
- Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Division Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (CMCC-IAFES), 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Alessio Collalti
- National Research Council of Italy, Forest Modelling Lab., Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, Italy
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