Comparing maximum entropy modelling methods to inform aquaculture site selection for novel seaweed species

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

Predicting the potential distribution of Dendrolimus punctatus and its host Pinus massoniana in China under climate change conditions

Introduction

Dendrolimus punctatus, a major pest endemic to the native Pinus massoniana forests in China, displays major outbreak characteristics and causes severe destructiveness. In the context of global climate change, this study aims to investigate the effects of climatic variations on the distribution of D. punctatus and its host, P. massoniana.

Methods

We predict their potential suitable distribution areas in the future, thereby offering a theoretical basis for monitoring and controlling D. punctatus, as well as conserving P. massoniana forest resources. By utilizing existing distribution data on D. punctatus and P. massoniana, coupled with relevant climatic variables, this study employs an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model for predictions. With feature combinations set as linear and product (LP) and the regularization multiplier at 0.1, the model strikes an optimal balance between complexity and accuracy.

Results

The results indicate that the primary climatic factors influencing the distribution of D. punctatus and P. massoniana include the minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, and annual precipitation. Under the influence of climate change, the distribution areas of P. massoniana and its pests exhibit a high degree of similarity, primarily concentrated in the region south of the Qinling-Huaihe line in China. In various climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for these two species may expand to varying degrees, exhibiting a tendency to shift toward higher latitude regions. Particularly under the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), D. punctatus is projected to expand northwards at the fastest rate.

Discussion

By 2050, its migration direction is expected to closely align with that of P. massoniana, indicating that the pine forests will continue to be affected by the pest. These findings provide crucial empirical references for region-specific prevention of D. punctatus infestations and for the rational utilization and management of P. massoniana resources.

Geospatial analysis to assess distribution patterns and predictive model for endangered Lilium mackliniae Sealy: to support management decisions

Lilium mackliniae Sealy is a species endemic to the Indo-Myanmar Biodiversity Hotspot with confined occurrence in the Shirui hills of Manipur (India). A rapid fragmentation of the species resulted in enlisting the remaining population as endangered. Tribal communities have managed this population in national parks for in situ conservation because of its sacred value. Maximum entropy-based modeling was performed with 19 bioclimatic and six geospatial variables on 65 true presence data to assess the threat on its only habitat. The accuracy of modeling was confirmed by an AUC value of 0.989. Among the variables used for habitat modeling, elevation range was a key predictor of the species distribution, followed by land use class and annual temperature range. Additionally, the model projected a similar habitat for the species in the same district. This study, therefore, provides essential information for the conservation and management of the species.

Mapping the potential for offshore aquaculture of salmonids in the Yellow Sea

Mariculture has been one of the fastest-growing global food production sectors over the past three decades. With the congestion of space and deterioration of the environment in coastal regions, offshore aquaculture has gained increasing attention. Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) are two important aquaculture species and contribute to 6.1% of world aquaculture production of finfish. In the present study, we established species distribution models (SDMs) to identify the potential areas for offshore aquaculture of these two cold-water fish species considering the mesoscale spatio-temporal thermal heterogeneity of the Yellow Sea. The values of the area under the curve (AUC) and the true skill statistic (TSS) showed good model performance. The suitability index (SI), which was used in this study to quantitatively assess potential offshore aquaculture sites, was highly dynamic at the surface water layer. However, high SI values occurred throughout the year at deeper water layers. The potential aquaculture areas for S. salar and O. mykiss in the Yellow Sea were estimated as 52,270 ± 3275 (95% confidence interval, CI) and 146,831 ± 15,023 km², respectively. Our results highlighted the use of SDMs in identifying potential aquaculture areas based on environmental variables. Considering the thermal heterogeneity of the environment, this study suggested that offshore aquaculture for Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout was feasible in the Yellow Sea by adopting new technologies (e.g., sinking cages into deep water) to avoid damage from high temperatures in summer.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-022-00141-2.

The Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Water Quality and Main Controlling Factors of Algal Blooms in Tai Lake, China

Taking Tai Lake in China as the research area, a 3D water environment mathematical model was built. Combined with the LHS and Morris uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods, the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), dissolved oxygen (DO), and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) were carried out. The main conclusions are: (1) The performance assessment of the 3D water environment mathematical model is good (R2 and NSE > 0.8) and is suitable for water quality research in large shallow lakes. (2) The time uncertainty study proves that the variation range of Chl-a is much larger than that of the other three water quality parameters and is more severe in summer and autumn. (3) The spatial uncertainty study proves that Chl-a is mainly present in the northwest lake area (heavily polluted area) and the other three water quality indicators are mainly present in the center. (4) The sensitivity results show that the main controlling factors of DO are ters (0.15) and kmsc (0.12); those of TN and TP are tetn (0.58) and tetp (0.24); and those of Chl-a are its own growth rate (0.14), optimal growth temperature (0.12), death rate (0.12), optimal growth light (0.11), and TP uptake rate (0.11). Thus, TP control is still the key treatment method for algal blooms that can be implemented by the Chinese government.

Aquaculture Site Selection of Oncorhynchus Mykiss (Rainbow Trout) in Markazi Province Using GIS-Based MCDM

The production of seafood, particularly in areas far from coastlines, makes aquaculture an optional farming alternative. Case research from the semi-arid Markazi province, Iran, is examined as a viable aquaculture location for Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout). ArcGIS Version 10.6.1 and Super Decision Version 3.2 software are utilized for the zoning and assessment of criteria maps. All criteria, i.e., sub-criteria and limitations, were gathered through the academic literature, qualitative interviews via expert opinion, national data, and guidelines. By imposing constraints on the premier aquatic potential map, the final map of the aquaculture potential of Markazi province was obtained. The results indicated that 40.79% of Markazi province has a high potential for aquaculture development. According to the sensitivity analysis, changes in criterion value (i.e., increase or decrease) in weight corresponded with the rate of change. Aquaculture development would require large-scale investment and make Markazi province a major seafood producer in the region.

West Nile virus in Spain: Forecasting the geographical distribution of risky areas with an ecological niche modelling approach

West Nile virus (WNV), a well-known emerging vector-borne arbovirus with a zoonotic life cycle, represents a threat to both public and animal health. Transmitted by ornithophilic mosquitoes, its transmission is difficult to predict and even more difficult to prevent. The massive and unprecedented number of human cases and equid outbreaks in Spain during 2020 interpellates for new approaches. For the first time, we present an integrate analysis from a niche perspective to provide an insight to the situation of West Nile disease (WND) in Spain. Our modelling approach benefits from the combined use of global occurrence records of outbreaks of WND in equids and of its two alleged main vectors in Spain, Culex pipiens and Cx. perexiguus. Maps of the climatic suitability for the presence of the two vectors species and for the circulation of WNV are provided. The main outcome of our study is a map delineating the areas under certain climatic risk of transmission. Our analyses indicate that the climatic risk of transmission of WND is medium in areas nearby the south Atlantic coastal area of the Cadiz Gulf and the Mediterranean coast, and high in southwestern Spain. The higher risk of transmission in the basins of the rivers Guadiana and Guadalquivir cannot be attributed exclusively to the local abundance of Cx. pipiens, but could be ascribed to the presence and abundance of Cx. perexiguus. Furthermore, this integrated analysis suggests that the WNV presents an ecological niche of its own, not fully overlapping the ones of its hosts or vector, and thus requiring particular environmental conditions to succeed in its infection cycle.

Integration of multi criteria decision analysis and GIS for evaluating the site suitability for aquaculture in southern coastal region, India

Deterioration of water and soil quality, poor infrastructure facilities and improper maintenance are the major factors that govern aquaculture growth and production in major part of India. In the present study aims to identify the suitable land for aquaculture growth and suggest the sustainable practice to improvise the growth of aquaculture in study region. With use of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) the various significant parameters such as geology, pH, salinity, soil media, slope, geomorphology, land use land cover, distance to water, settlement and road networks were analyzed and based on these characteristics, thematic maps were prepared. The results are revealed that, that 882.13 km² area was most suitable, 1264.88 km² area was suitable and 14.00 km² area was unsuitable for aquaculture in the study region. The study results will helpful to decision makers and to make a design plan for aquaculture growth in the study region.

Spatio-temporal variation in potential habitats for rare and endangered plants and habitat conservation based on the maximum entropy model

Rare and endangered plants (REPs) act as key indicators for species habitat priorities, and can thus be critical in global biodiversity protection work. Human activities and climate change pose great threats to REPs, so protection should be a top priority. In this study, we used the maximum entropy model (Maxent) to identify current and future (2050) potential habitats of REPs in the Xishuangbanna tropical area of China. We compared potential habitats with existing protected areas (PAs) in gap analysis, and used a transfer matrix to quantify changes in potential habitats. By comparing the potential distribution obtained with existing land use and land cover, we analyzed the impact of human-dominated land use changes on potential habitats of REPs and identified the main habitat patch types of REPs. The results showed that the current potential habitat area of hotspots is 2989.85 km², which will be reduced to 247.93 km² by 2050, accounting for 15.60% and 1.29% of the total research area, respectively. Analysis of land use and land cover showed that rubber plantation was the human-dominated land use posing the greatest threat to potential habitats of REPs, occupying 23.40% and 21.62% of current and future potential habitats, respectively. Monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest was identified as the main habitat patch type for REPs in Xishuangbanna and occupied the highest proportion of potential habitat area. Gap analysis showed that only 35.85% of habitat hotspots are currently included in existing PAs and that this will decrease to 32.26% by 2050. This emphasizes the importance of protecting current and future potential habitats of REPs in a dynamic conservation approach that can adapt to changes in future climate and human activities.

Feasibility of reintroducing grassland megaherbivores, the greater one-horned rhinoceros, and swamp buffalo within their historic global range

Reintroduction of endangered species is an effective and increasingly important conservation strategy once threats have been addressed. The greater one-horned rhinoceros and swamp buffalo have declined through historic hunting and habitat loss. We identify and evaluate available habitat across their historic range (India, Nepal, and Bhutan) for reintroducing viable populations. We used Species Distribution Models in Maxent to identify potential habitats and evaluated model-identified sites through field visits, interviews of wildlife managers, literature, and population-habitat viability analysis. We prioritize sites based on size, quality, protection, management effectiveness, biotic pressures, and potential of conflict with communities. Our results suggest that populations greater than 50 for rhinoceros and 100 for buffalo were less susceptible to extinction, and could withstand some poaching, especially if supplemented or managed as a metapopulation. We note some reluctance by managers to reintroduce rhinoceros due to high costs associated with subsequent protection. Our analysis subsequently prioritised Corbett and Valmiki, for rhino reintroduction and transboundary complexes of Chitwan-Parsa-Valmiki and Dudhwa-Pilibhit-Shuklaphanta-Bardia for buffalo reintroductions. Establishing new safety-nets and supplementing existing populations of these megaherbivores would ensure their continued survival and harness their beneficial effect on ecosystems and conspecifics like pygmy hog, hispid hare, swamp deer, hog deer, and Bengal florican.