An individual-based model to explore the impacts of lesser-known social dynamics on wolf populations

Simulating the efficacy of wolf-dog hybridization management with individual-based modeling

Introgressive hybridization between wolves and dogs is a conservation concern due to its potentially deleterious long-term evolutionary consequences. European legislation requires that wolf-dog hybridization be mitigated through effective management. We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the life cycle of gray wolves that incorporates aspects of wolf sociality that affect hybridization rates (e.g., the dissolution of packs after the death of one/both breeders) with the goal of informing decision-making on management of wolf-dog hybridization. We applied our model by projecting hybridization dynamics in a local wolf population under different mate choice and immigration scenarios and contrasted results of removal of admixed individuals with their sterilization and release. In several scenarios, lack of management led to complete admixture, whereas reactive management interventions effectively reduced admixture in wolf populations. Management effectiveness, however, strongly depended on mate choice and number and admixture level of individuals immigrating into the wolf population. The inclusion of anthropogenic mortality affecting parental and admixed individuals (e.g., poaching) increased the probability of pack dissolution and thus increased the probability of interbreeding with dogs or admixed individuals and boosted hybridization and introgression rates in all simulation scenarios. Recognizing the necessity of additional model refinements (appropriate parameterization, thorough sensitivity analyses, and robust model validation) to generate management recommendations applicable in real-world scenarios, we maintain confidence in our model's potential as a valuable conservation tool that can be applied to diverse situations and species facing similar threats.

Rapid evolution of prehistoric dogs from wolves by natural and sexual selection emerges from an agent-based model

Wolves are among the earliest animals to be domesticated. However, the mechanism by which ancient wolves were domesticated into modern dogs is unknown. Most of the prevailing domestication hypotheses posit that humans selectively bred wolves that were more docile. However, a competing hypothesis states that wolves that were less hostile towards humans would essentially domesticate themselves by naturally selecting for tamer wolves since that would allow for easier access to food from human settlements. A major critique of the latter hypothesis is whether evolution by this natural selective pathway could have occurred in a sufficiently short time span. Simulating the process would help demonstrate if such an objection is sufficient to dismiss this hypothesis. Thus, we constructed an agent-based model of the evolution of a single trait, a measure of human tolerance, in canines to test the merit of the time constraint objection. We tested scenarios both with and without mate preference to provide a potential sexual selective force. We used fecundity and mortality rates from the literature for validation. Hartigan's dip test of unimodality was used to measure if and when divergence of populations occurred. Our results indicate that the proto-domestication hypothesis cannot be rejected on the basis of time constraints.

Extinction risks and mitigation for a megaherbivore, the giraffe, in a human-influenced landscape under climate change

Megaherbivores play "outsized" roles in ecosystem functioning but are vulnerable to human impacts such as overhunting, land-use changes, and climate extremes. However, such impacts-and combinations of these impacts-on population dynamics are rarely examined using empirical data. To guide effective conservation actions under increasing global-change pressures, we developed a socially structured individual-based model (IBM) using long-term demographic data from female giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) in a human-influenced landscape in northern Tanzania, the Tarangire Ecosystem. This unfenced system includes savanna habitats with a wide gradient of anthropogenic pressures, from national parks, a wildlife ranch and community conservation areas, to unprotected village lands. We then simulated and projected over 50 years how realistic environmental and land-use management changes might affect this metapopulation of female giraffes. Scenarios included: (1) anthropogenic land-use changes including roads and agricultural/urban expansion; (2) reduction or improvement in wildlife law enforcement measures; (3) changes in populations of natural predators and migratory alternative prey; and (4) increases in rainfall as predicted for East Africa. The factor causing the greatest risk of rapid declines in female giraffe abundance in our simulations was a reduction in law enforcement leading to more poaching. Other threats decreased abundances of giraffes, but improving law enforcement in both of the study area's protected areas mitigated these impacts: a 0.01 increase in giraffe survival probability from improved law enforcement mitigated a 25% rise in heavy rainfall events by increasing abundance 19%, and mitigated the expansion of towns and blockage of dispersal movements by increasing abundance 22%. Our IBM enabled us to further quantify fine-scale abundance changes among female giraffe social communities, revealing potential source-sink interactions within the metapopulation. This flexible methodology can be adapted to test additional ecological questions in this landscape, or to model populations of giraffes or other species in different ecosystems.

Eyes, ears, or nose? Comparison of three non-invasive methods to survey wolf recolonisation

The development and use of cost-effective and appropriate survey methods to assess species distribution and to monitor range expansion and contraction of wild populations is crucial due to the limited financial resources for conservation. Of particular importance, yet little studied, is the ability to collect information before a wild population is well established, i.e. at the early stages of recolonisation. During 2018 and 2019, we used camera traps, audio recorders, and scat detection dogs simultaneously to investigate composition, detection probability, and territorial extent of a pack of wolves in the Swiss Alps. We compared the efficacy of these survey methods by assessing sampling effort, data obtained, and costs. We show that, under the presented setup, camera traps and scat detection dogs substantially outperformed audio recorders in detecting wolves, representing the packs’ territorial extent, and revealing the number of adult wolves. The detection dogs did not detect pups but, unlike the other methods, allowed the identification of single individuals. The use of four camera traps during 13 weeks, a 24-km-long transect walked with the detection dog, or the use of one audio recorder during 148 weeks were necessary to obtain a comparable wolf detection probability. Our results show that no single method was able to return all information that we hoped to collect. Comprehensive and cost-effective information was best obtained by combining data from camera traps and detection dogs. We suggest both methods to be simultaneously used to successfully investigate wolf recolonisation into historical range.