A scenario-based approach to tackle trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and land use pressure in Central Italy

Assessing the impact of global initiatives on current and future land restoration scenarios in India

Land degradation across the world has resulted in an unprecedented decline of ecosystem services, affecting the livelihood of 3.2 billion people globally. Sustainable land management is essential to protect our finite land resources from over-exploitation and degradation. Therefore, the present article was aimed to analyze the impacts of various national and international policies on current and future land restoration scenarios in India. A spatially explicit model (CLUMondo) was employed to predict scenarios, i.e., the 'business as usual' (BU) and 'sustainable restoration' (SR) by 2030. Though the results showed an increasing trend in land degradation , i.e., from 44.28 to 49.74 Mha during the period of 2005-15, a slight decrease was observed in 2019 (49.24 Mha), suggesting a net increase of 11.21% during the 2005-19 period. However, an increase in forest cover by 5.08% under existing policy targets overtook the degradation rate by restoration initiatives. The net decline in degraded land area by 1% with an increased forest cover by 1.83% observed during the 2015-19 periods reflected the positive impact of various national and global policies on existing restoration ventures in India. Our modeled results (weighted AUC = 0.87) also suggested an increase in forest cover by 6.9% and 9.9% under BU and SR scenarios, respectively. Under the BU scenario, degraded land will be restored up to 12.1 Mha; however, 6.27 Mha of these lands will be converted to cropland for food production. Importantly, a decrease in grasslands by 35.1% under the BU scenario warrants the urgency to maintain the integrity of such ecological systems. However, the SR scenario showed an increase in grasslands by 8.9%, with an overall restoration of degraded land up to 18.31 Mha. Moreover, a reduced cropland expansion rate of 1% suggested an effective land management response. While our results may have some uncertainties due to the model limitations, they can still be used for framing suitable land management policies to facilitate sustainable land restoration programs in India.

Habitat quality assessment provides indicators for socio-ecological management: a case study of the Chinese Loess Plateau

The impact of changing land use and land cover (LULC) on regional habitat quality have attracted extensive attention. The Loess Plateau is an ecologically fragile area; LULC changes in this region have complex impacts on habitat quality at multiple spatiotemporal scales. This study developed an integrated assessment method based on multi-source data to assess habitat quality changes in the Loess Plateau during recent years (2000-2015) and in the future (2015-2050) under four typical scenarios. A significant increase in urban land use was observed on the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2050, which resulted in a continuous decrease in the cropland area. The area of forest and grassland landscapes was also reduced by both urban and cropland expansion, with the most significant loss in the grasslands. A future overall decreasing trend in overall habitat quality is predicted, but the SSP1-2.6 scenario is significantly better than the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Urban expansion contributes a rapidly increasing proportion of habitat quality decline on the Loess Plateau; urban land will become the most significant threat to regional habitat quality by 2030. Policies for socio-ecological protection with clear, high-level objectives can effectively promote habitat quality. It is recommended that national nature reserves be delineated and ecological functions in the study area be continuously monitored. This research provides a potential socio-ecological baseline and implementation strategy for the habitat conservation-oriented management of large and fragile ecological regions.

How regulating and cultural services of ecosystems have changed over time in Italy

In this experimental study, different components are computed for three different ecosystem services (ES). Specifically, supply, demand and use are estimated for pollination service, flood risk regulation service and nature-based tourism. These are analysed and assessed in 2012 and 2018 for the Italian context, in order to estimate the evolution over this period and to allow a significant comparison of results. The same methodology and models are applied for the selected accounting years and accounting tables and tend to reflect as closely as possible the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting-Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EA), which is the international standard endorsed by the United Nations to compile Natural Capital Accounting in 2021. Both biophysical and monetary assessments are performed using the ARIES technology, an integrated modelling platform providing automatic and flexible integration of data and models, via its semantic modelling nature. Models have been run adjusting the components of the global modelling approach to the Italian context and, whenever available, prioritising the use of local data to carry out the study. This approach is particularly useful to analyse trends over time, as potentially biased components of models and data are substantially mitigated when the same biases is constant over time. This study finds an increase in benefits over the period analysed for the ES examined. The main contribution of this pioneering work is to support the idea that ES accounting or Natural Capital Accounting can provide a very useful tool to improve economic and environmental information at national and regional level. This can support processes to provide the necessary incentives to steer policy-making towards preventative rather than corrective actions, which are usually much less effective and more costly, both at environmental and economic levels. Nevertheless, particular attention must be paid to the meaning of the estimates and the drivers of these values to derive a direct or indirect relationship between the benefits observable and the actual Italian ecosystems condition.

Distribution of ecological restoration projects associated with land use and land cover change in China and their ecological impacts

China is prone to broad land degradation and thus has been implementing ecological restoration projects (ERPs) since the reform and opening up. The extent of ERPs, as well as the varied planting efforts including tree gain projects (TGPs), grass gain projects (GGPs), and shrub gain projects (SGPs), have remained largely unknown. In addition, the mixed success of ERPs on preventing soil erosion and improving biodiversity is not well known. Based on a land use and land cover (LULC) product and a trajectory-based change detection approach, we successfully generated the first national map of ERPs associated with land use and land cover change (LUCC) and its three associated subcategories. Then, we applied the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to evaluate the dynamics of sediment retention and habitat quality. In addition, we explored the heterogeneous patterns for the ecological impacts of ERPs. Our results suggested that during the past 40 years, a total ERP area of 9.54 × 10⁶ hm² was observed nationwide, mainly in the northwestern provinces of China. Of the three ERP subcategories, TGPs accounted for the largest area (48.55%), followed by GGPs (47.50%) and SGPs (3.96%). The national average sediment retention experienced a significant increase, whereas the national average habitat quality experienced a significant decline. ERP-driven increases in habitat quality were offset partly by the LUCCs induced by economic development policies in some regions, especially in northeast China. The simultaneous effect of construction land expansion and ERP implementation on sediment retention made the synchronization between ERP implementation and sediment retention improvement insignificant. We also suggested the optimal direction for ERP implementation.

Facing Multiple Environmental Challenges through Maximizing the Co-Benefits of Nature-Based Solutions at a National Scale in Italy

The European Union is significantly investing in the Green Deal that introduces measures to guide Member States to face sustainability and health challenges, especially employing Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) in urban contexts. National governments need to develop appropriate strategies to coordinate local projects, face multiple challenges, and maximize NBS effectiveness. This paper aims to introduce a replicable methodology to integrate NBS into a multi-scale planning process to maximize their cost–benefits. Using Italy as a case study, we mapped three environmental challenges nationwide related to climate change and air pollution, identifying spatial groups of their co-occurrences. These groups serve as functional areas where 24 NBS were ranked for their ecosystem services supply and land cover. The results show eight different spatial groups, with 6% of the national territory showing no challenge, with 42% showing multiple challenges combined simultaneously. Seven NBS were high-performing in all groups: five implementable in permeable land covers (urban forests, infiltration basins, green corridors, large parks, heritage gardens), and two in impervious ones (intensive, semi-intensive green roofs). This work provides a strategic vision at the national scale to quantify and orient budget allocation, while on a municipal scale, the NBS ranking acts as a guideline for specific planning activities based on local issues.