Opioid epidemics

Social vulnerability and aging of elderly people in the United States

We use 7 waves of the Health and Retirement Study and construct a social vulnerability index (SVI) for elderly U.S. Americans (born 1913–1966). We show that the SVI is mildly larger for men than for women and increases in age from above age 60 onwards for both genders. Social vulnerability of men (but not of women) is lower in the West and Midwest than in other regions and higher income mildly reduces the SVI for men (but not for women). In cohort analysis we find an increase of the SVI for individuals born in the late 1940s or later, which is, however, statistically significant only for women. In order to investigate the nexus between social vulnerability and aging, we construct a frailty index from the same data. We find that socially vulnerable persons display more health deficits at any age. Using the initial SVI (at first interview) we find that social vulnerability exerts a significant impact on subsequent accumulation of health deficits, which is of about the same size for men and women. A one standard deviation increase in the initial SVI leads to a 20 percent increase of the frailty index at any age.

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Panel study of social vulnerability and aging in the U.S.

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Social vulnerability index (SVI) increases for women born after 1940.

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Strong impact of initial SVI on subsequent accumulation of health deficits.

From pain patient to junkie: An economic theory of painkiller consumption and its impact on wellbeing and longevity

In this paper, I propose a life cycle model of painkiller consumption that combines the theory of health deficit accumulation with the theory of addiction. Chronic pain is conceptualized as a persistent negative shock to lifetime utility that can be treated by pain relief medication. Individuals treated with opioid pain relievers (OPR) develop addiction, which increases their demand for opioids and reduces their welfare and life expectancy through side effects and potential overdose. I calibrate the model for a benchmark American and investigate the comparative dynamics of alternative drug characteristics, pain intensities, and ages of onsets of pain as well as their implications for welfare and life expectancy. Computational experiments are used to identify fully rational and imperfectly rational addiction behavior. Fully rational addicts reduce OPR use when new information about the addictive potential of these drugs arrives. Imperfectly rational addicts further develop their addiction and switch to illicit opioid use. Likewise, a discontinued prescription helps fully rational addicts to quit quickly, while it induces imperfectly rational individuals to take up heroin. I also discuss treatment of OPR addiction and the use of opioids in palliative care.