A nomogram associated with high probability of malignant nodes in the surgical specimen after trimodality therapy of patients with oesophageal cancer

Development of a Nomogram to Predict the Outcome for Patients with Soft Tissue Sarcoma

Soft tissue sarcomas (STSs) are common cutaneous or subcutaneous neoplasms in dogs. Most STSs are initially treated by surgical excision, and local recurrence may develop in almost 20% of patients. Currently, it is difficult to predict which STS will recur after excision, but this ability would greatly assist patient management. In recent years, the nomogram has emerged as a tool to allow oncologists to predict an outcome from a combination of risk factors. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for canine STSs and determine if the nomogram could predict patient outcomes better than individual tumour characteristics. The current study provides the first evidence in veterinary oncology to support a role for the nomogram to assist with predicting the outcome for patients after surgery for STSs. The nomogram developed in this study accurately predicted tumour-free survival in 25 patients but failed to predict recurrence in 1 patient. Overall, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, and negative predictive values for the nomogram were 96%, 45%, 45%, and 96%, respectively (area under the curve: AUC = 0.84). This study suggests a nomogram could play an important role in helping to identify patients who could benefit from revision surgery or adjuvant therapy for an STS.

Defining the relevance of surgical margins. Part two: Strategies to improve prediction of recurrence risk

Due to the complex nature of tumour biology and the integration between host tissues and molecular processes of the tumour cells, a continued reliance on the status of the microscopic cellular margin should not remain our only determinant of the success of a curative-intent surgery for patients with cancer. Based on current evidence, relying on a purely cellular focus to provide a binary indication of treatment success can provide an incomplete interpretation of potential outcome. A more holistic analysis of the cancer margin may be required. If we are to move ahead from our current situation - and allow treatment plans to be more intelligently tailored to meet the requirements of each individual tumour - we need to improve our utilisation of techniques that either improve recognition of residual tumour cells within the surgical field or enable a more comprehensive interrogation of tumour biology that identifies a risk of recurrence. In the second article in this series on defining the relevance of surgical margins, the authors discuss possible alternative strategies for margin assessment and evaluation in the canine and feline cancer patient. These strategies include considering adoption of the residual tumour classification scheme; intra-operative imaging systems including fluorescence-guided surgery, optical coherence tomography and Raman spectroscopy; molecular analysis and whole transcriptome analysis of tissues; and the development of a biologic index (nomogram). These techniques may allow evaluation of individual tumour biology and the status of the resection margin in ways that are different to our current techniques. Ultimately, these techniques seek to better define the risk of tumour recurrence following surgery and provide the surgeon and patient with more confidence in margin assessment.

A Novel RNA-Seq-Based Model for Preoperative Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis in Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Objective

To develop and validate a novel RNA-seq-based nomogram for preoperative prediction of lymph node metastasis (LNM) for patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC).

Methods

RNA-seq data for 276 OSCC patients (including 157 samples with LNM and 119 without LNM) were downloaded from TCGA database. Differential expression analysis was performed between LNM and non-LNM of OSCC. These samples were divided into a training set and a test set by a ratio of 9 : 1 while the relative proportion of the non-LNM and LNM groups was kept balanced within each dataset. Based on clinical features and seven candidate RNAs, we established a prediction model of LNM for OSCC using logistic regression analysis. Tenfold crossvalidation was utilized to examine the accuracy of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the clinical utility of the nomogram.

Results

A total of 139 differentially expressed RNAs were identified between LNM and non-LNM of OSCC. Seven candidate RNAs were screened based on FPKM values, including NEURL1, AL162581.1 (miscRNA), AP002336.2 (lncRNA), CCBE1, CORO6, RDH12, and AC129492.6 (pseudogene). Logistic regression analysis revealed that the clinical N stage (p < 0.001) was an important factor to predict LNM. Moreover, three RNAs including RDH12 (p value < 0.05), CCBE1 (p value < 0.01), and AL162581.1 (p value < 0.05) could be predictive biomarkers for LNM in OSCC patients. The average accuracy rate of the model was 0.7661, indicating a good performance of the model.

Conclusion

Our findings constructed an RNA-seq-based nomogram combined with clinicopathology, which could potentially provide clinicians with a useful tool for preoperative prediction of LNM and be tailored for individualized therapy in patients with OSCC.

Prognostic nomogram for overall survival in upper aerodigestive tract extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type, stages IE and IIE: A SEER-based study

The present study aimed to develop a widely accepted prognostic nomogram for stage IE and IIE extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL) of the upper aerodigestive tract by using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database. A total of 396 patients with ENKTCL were included in the present study and were divided into training (n=280) and validation (n=116) cohorts. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model were used to evaluate the prognostic value of multiple clinical parameters on overall survival. The C-index and calibration curves were both used to determine the predictive and discriminatory capacities of the nomogram. In the training cohort, multivariate analysis demonstrated that age, primary site, radiation therapy and stage were independent prognostic factors. Nomograms with a C-index of 0.717 in the training cohort and a C-index of 0.737 in the validation cohort were developed. The calibration curves reported excellent consistency between predicted and real survival in patients with ENKTCL. In addition, a subgroup analysis of 264 patients who were receiving chemotherapy revealed that based on chemotherapy, supplementation with radiation therapy was significantly beneficial to patients survival. In conclusion, the present study demonstrated that this prognostic model may serve as a novel tool for improving prediction of survival outcomes and may therefore be used in clinical applications.

Development of a preoperative prediction nomogram for lymph node metastasis in colorectal cancer based on a novel serum miRNA signature and CT scans

BACKGROUND

Preoperative prediction of lymph node (LN) status is of crucial importance for appropriate treatment planning in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). In this study, we sought to develop and validate a non-invasive nomogram model to preoperatively predict LN metastasis in CRC.

METHODS

Development of the nomogram entailed three subsequent stages with specific patient sets. In the discovery set (n = 20), LN-status-related miRNAs were screened from high-throughput sequencing data of human CRC serum samples. In the training set (n = 218), a miRNA panel-clinicopathologic nomogram was developed by logistic regression analysis for preoperative prediction of LN metastasis. In the validation set (n = 198), we validated the above nomogram with respect to its discrimination, calibration and clinical application.

FINDINGS

Four differently expressed miRNAs (miR-122-5p, miR-146b-5p, miR-186-5p and miR-193a-5p) were identified in the serum samples from CRC patients with and without LN metastasis, which also had regulatory effects on CRC cell migration. The combined miRNA panel could provide higher LN prediction capability compared with computed tomography (CT) scans (P < .0001 in both the training and validation sets). Furthermore, a nomogram integrating the miRNA-based panel and CT-reported LN status was constructed in the training set, which performed well in both the training and validation sets (AUC: 0.913 and 0.883, respectively). Decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.

INTERPRETATION

Our nomogram is a reliable prediction model that can be conveniently and efficiently used to improve the accuracy of preoperative prediction of LN metastasis in patients with CRC.

Prediction and diagnosis of interval metastasis after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal cancer using 18F-FDG PET/CT

OBJECTIVE

During neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal cancer, or in the interval prior to surgery, some patients develop systemic metastasis. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT for the detection of interval metastasis and to identify predictors of interval metastases in a large cohort of oesophageal cancer patients.

METHODS

In total, 783 consecutive patients with potentially resectable oesophageal cancer who underwent chemoradiotherapy and pre- and post-treatment ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT between 2006 and 2015 were analyzed from a prospectively maintained database. Diagnostic accuracy measures were calculated on a per-patient basis using histological verification or clinical follow-up as a reference standard. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine pre-treatment predictors of interval metastasis. A prediction score was developed to predict the probability of interval metastasis.

RESULTS

Of 783 patients that underwent ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT restaging, 65 (8.3%) were found to have interval metastasis and 44 (5.6%) were deemed to have false positive lesions. The resulting sensitivity and specificity was 74.7% (95% CI: 64.3-83.4%) and 93.7% (95% CI: 91.6-95.4%), respectively. Multivariable analysis revealed that tumor length, cN status, squamous cell tumor histology, and baseline SUV_max were associated with interval metastasis. Based on these criteria, a prediction score was developed with an optimism adjusted C-index of 0.67 that demonstrated accurate calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT restaging detects distant interval metastases in 8.3% of patients after chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal cancer. The provided prediction score may stratify risk of developing interval metastasis, and could be used to prioritize additional restaging modalities for patients most likely to benefit.

Survival in patients with spinocerebellar ataxia types 1, 2, 3, and 6 (EUROSCA): a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

Spinocerebellar ataxias are dominantly inherited progressive ataxia disorders that can lead to premature death. We aimed to study the overall survival of patients with the most common spinocerebellar ataxias (SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, and SCA6) and to identify the strongest contributing predictors that affect survival.

METHODS

In this longitudinal cohort study (EUROSCA), we enrolled men and women, aged 18 years or older, from 17 ataxia referral centres in ten European countries; participants had positive genetic test results for SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, or SCA6 and progressive, otherwise unexplained, ataxias. Survival was defined as the time from enrolment to death for any reason. We used the Cox regression model adjusted for age at baseline to analyse survival. We used prognostic factors with a p value less than 0·05 from a multivariate model to build nomograms and assessed their performance based on discrimination and calibration. The EUROSCA study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02440763.

FINDINGS

Between July 1, 2005, and Aug 31, 2006, 525 patients with SCA1 (n=117), SCA2 (n=162), SCA3 (n=139), or SCA6 (n=107) were enrolled and followed up. The 10-year survival rate was 57% (95% CI 47-69) for SCA1, 74% (67-81) for SCA2, 73% (65-82) for SCA3, and 87% (80-94) for SCA6. Factors associated with shorter survival were: dysphagia (hazard ratio 4·52, 95% CI 1·83-11·15) and a higher value for the Scale for the Assessment and Rating of Ataxia (SARA) score (1·26, 1·19-1·33) for patients with SCA1; older age at inclusion (1·04, 1·01-1·08), longer CAG repeat length (1·16, 1·03-1·31), and higher SARA score (1·15, 1·10-1·20) for patients with SCA2; older age at inclusion (1·44, 1·20-1·74), dystonia (2·65, 1·21-5·53), higher SARA score (1·26, 1·17-1·35), and negative interaction between CAG and age at inclusion (0·994, 0·991-0·997) for patients with SCA3; and higher SARA score (1·17, 1·08-1·27) for patients with SCA6. The nomogram-predicted probability of 10-year survival showed good discrimination (c index 0·905 [SD 0·027] for SCA1, 0·822 [0·032] for SCA2, 0·891 [0·021] for SCA3, and 0·825 [0·054] for SCA6).

INTERPRETATION

Our study provides quantitative data on the survival of patients with the most common spinocerebellar ataxias, based on a long follow-up period. These results have implications for the design of future interventional studies of spinocerebellar ataxias; for example, the prognostic survival nomogram could be useful for selection and stratification of patients. Our findings need validation in an external population before they can be used to counsel patients and their families.

FUNDING

European Union 6th Framework programme, German Ministry of Education and Research, Polish Ministry of Scientific Research and Information Technology, European Union 7th Framework programme, and Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale.

A nomogram based on phosphorylated AKT1 for predicting locoregional recurrence in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background: The AKT signalling pathway controls survival and growth in many malignant tumours. However, the prognostic value of phosphorylated AKT1 (p-AKT1) for locoregional-progression free survival (LPFS) in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has not been established. Our aim was to develop a nomogram to predict local recurrence using p-AKT1 and main clinical characteristics in patients with thoracic ESCC undergoing radical three-field lymph node dissection.

Methods: Immunohistochemistry was performed to examine p-AKT1 expression in 181 thoracic ESCC patients. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate LPFS. Cox regression analysis was also performed to evaluate prognostic factors. A nomogram comprising biological and clinical factors was established to predict LPFS.

Results: The 5-year LPFS rate was 63.9%. Multivariate analysis revealed that expression of p-AKT1 (p<0.001), pathologic N category (p=0.004) and number of lymph nodes retrieved (p=0.001) were independent prognostic factors for LPFS. Increased expression of p-AKT1 was associated with decreased LPFS in patients with ESCC. In addition, a nomogram was established based on all significant independent factors for locoregional recurrence risk. Harrell's c-index for predicting LPFS was 0.78.

Conclusion: Activation of AKT1 was associated with poor locoregional control in ESCC patients. The nomogram, based on p-AKT1 expression and clinically significant parameters, could be used as an accurate stratification model for predicting locoregional recurrence in patients with ESCC after radical resection.

Nomograms in oncology: more than meets the eye

Nomograms are widely used as prognostic devices in oncology and medicine. With the ability to generate an individual probability of a clinical event by integrating diverse prognostic and determinant variables, nomograms meet our desire for biologically and clinically integrated models and fulfill our drive towards personalised medicine. Rapid computation through user-friendly digital interfaces, together with increased accuracy, and more easily understood prognoses compared with conventional staging, allow for seamless incorporation of nomogram-derived prognosis to aid clinical decision making. This has led to the appearance of many nomograms on the internet and in medical journals, and an increase in nomogram use by patients and physicians alike. However, the statistical foundations of nomogram construction, their precise interpretation, and evidence supporting their use are generally misunderstood. This issue is leading to an under-appreciation of the inherent uncertainties regarding nomogram use. We provide a systematic, practical approach to evaluating and comprehending nomogram-derived prognoses, with particular emphasis on clarifying common misconceptions and highlighting limitations.

Concordance of studies for nodal staging is prognostic for worse survival in esophageal cancer

Pretreatment clinical staging in esophageal cancer influences prognosis and treatment strategy. Current staging strategies utilize multiple imaging modalities, and often the results are contradictory. No studies have examined the implications of concordance of computed tomography (CT), positron emission tomography (PET), and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) when used for the evaluation of nodal disease. The objective of this study was to determine if concordance of CT, PET, or EUS for nodal disease predicts worse overall survival. We reviewed 615 esophageal cancer patients with pretreatment CT, PET, and EUS that underwent esophagectomy for survival outcomes based on concordance of studies for nodal disease. Concordant N+ is defined as two or three studies positive for nodal disease; non-concordant N+ is defined as only one positive study. Node-positive disease by any study predicted shorter survival than node-negative disease (42% vs. 73% 5-year survival; P<0.001). Additionally, non-concordant N+ patients had shorter survival than N- patients (52% vs. 73% 5-year survival; P<0.001). Concordant N+ patients had shorter survival than non-concordant N+ patients (38- vs. 61-month median survival; P=0.017). There were no statistically significant differences in survival based on specific combinations of studies. When PET was disregarded, patients with both CT+ and EUS+ had shorter survival than patients with either CT+ or EUS+ (39- vs. 58-month median survival; P=0.029). Pretreatment CT, PET, or EUS concordance for node-positive disease predicts shorter overall survival in patients that undergo esophagectomy for esophageal cancer. Predicting survival in esophageal cancer should consider the synergistic capabilities of CT, PET, and EUS in evaluating nodal status.

Propensity-based matching between esophagogastric cancer patients who had surgery and who declined surgery after preoperative chemoradiation

BACKGROUND

Trimodality therapy (TMT; chemoradiation plus surgery) has level-1 evidence for survival advantage for TMT-eligible esophagogastric cancer patients. Some patients, however, decline surgery after preoperative chemoradiation. The question of which patient should have esophagectomy and which one should not is unlikely to be answered by a prospective comparison; therefore, we matched the clinical covariates of several patients who had surgery with those who declined surgery (DS).

METHODS

Between 2002 and 2011, we identified 623 patients in our databases. Of 623 patients, 244 patients had TMT and 61 TMT-eligible patients were in the DS group. Using the propensity-score method, we matched 16 covariates between 36 DS patients and 36 TMT patients.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics between the two groups were balanced (p = NS). The median overall survival times were: 57.9 months (95% CI: 27.7 to not applicable, NA) for the DS group and 50.8 months (95% CI: 30.7 to NA) for the TMT group (p = 0.28). The median relapse-free survival times were: 18.5 (95% CI: 11.5-30.4) for the DS group and 26.5 months (95% CI: 15.5-NA) for the TMT group (p = 0.45). Eleven (31%) of 36 patients in the DS group had salvage surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results are intriguing but skewed by the patients who had salvage surgery in the DS group. Until highly reliable predictive models are developed for esophageal preservation, TMT must be encouraged for all TMT-eligible gastroesophageal cancer patients.