Predictive factors of severe early treatment-related toxicity in patients receiving first-line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer: Pooled analysis of 2190 patients enrolled in Fédération Francophone de Cancérologie Digestive (FFCD) trials

Chemotoxicity and Associated Risk Factors in Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) patients experience multiple types of chemotoxicity affecting treatment compliance, survival, and quality of life (QOL). Prior research shows clinician-reported chemotoxicity (i.e., grading scales or diagnostic codes) predicts rehospitalization and cancer survival. However, a comprehensive synthesis of clinician-reported chemotoxicity is still lacking.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine chemotoxicity's prevalence and risk factors in CRC.

METHODS

A systematic search from 2009 to 2024 yielded 30 studies for review, with 25 included in the meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Pooled prevalences of overall, non-hematological, and hematological moderate-to-severe toxicities were 45.7%, 39.2%, and 25.3%, respectively. The most common clinician-reported chemotoxicities were gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity (22.9%) and neuropathy or neutropenia (17.9%). Significant risk factors at baseline were malnutritional status, frailty, impaired immune or hepato-renal functions, short telomere lengths, low gut lactobacillus levels, age, female sex, aggressive chemotherapy, and low QOL. Age was associated with neutropenia (β: -1.44) and GI toxicity (β:1.85) (p-values < 0.01). Older adults (>65 y.o.) had higher prevalences of overall (OR: 1.14) and GI (OR: 1.65) toxicities, but a lower prevalence of neutropenia (OR: 0.65) than younger adults (p-values < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the importance of closely monitoring and managing chemotoxicity in CRC patients receiving chemotherapy.

Dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase gene variants for predicting grade 4-5 fluoropyrimidine-induced toxicity: FUSAFE individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) deficiency is the main known cause of life-threatening fluoropyrimidine (FP)-induced toxicities. We conducted a meta-analysis on individual patient data to assess the contribution of deleterious DPYD variants *2A/D949V/*13/HapB3 (recommended by EMA) and clinical factors, for predicting G4-5 toxicity.

METHODS

Study eligibility criteria included recruitment of Caucasian patients without DPD-based FP-dose adjustment. Main endpoint was 12-week haematological or digestive G4-5 toxicity. The value of DPYD variants *2A/p.D949V/*13 merged, HapB3, and MIR27A rs895819 was evaluated using multivariable logistic models (AUC).

RESULTS

Among 25 eligible studies, complete clinical variables and primary endpoint were available in 15 studies (8733 patients). Twelve-week G4-5 toxicity prevalence was 7.3% (641 events). The clinical model included age, sex, body mass index, schedule of FP-administration, concomitant anticancer drugs. Adding *2A/p.D949V/*13 variants (at least one allele, prevalence 2.2%, OR 9.5 [95%CI 6.7-13.5]) significantly improved the model (p < 0.0001). The addition of HapB3 (prevalence 4.0%, 98.6% heterozygous), in spite of significant association with toxicity (OR 1.8 [95%CI 1.2-2.7]), did not improve the model. MIR27A rs895819 was not associated with toxicity, irrespective of DPYD variants.

CONCLUSIONS

FUSAFE meta-analysis highlights the major relevance of DPYD *2A/p.D949V/*13 combined with clinical variables to identify patients at risk of very severe FP-related toxicity.

Predicting Severe Haematological Toxicity in Gastrointestinal Cancer Patients Undergoing 5-FU-Based Chemotherapy: A Bayesian Network Approach

PURPOSE

Severe toxicity is reported in about 30% of gastrointestinal cancer patients receiving 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU)-based chemotherapy. To date, limited tools exist to identify at risk patients in this setting. The objective of this study was to address this need by designing a predictive model using a Bayesian network, a probabilistic graphical model offering robust, explainable predictions.

METHODS

We utilized a dataset of 267 gastrointestinal cancer patients, conducting preprocessing, and splitting it into TRAIN and TEST sets (80%:20% ratio). The RandomForest algorithm assessed variable importance based on MeanDecreaseGini coefficient. The bnlearn R library helped design a Bayesian network model using a 10-fold cross-validation on the TRAIN set and the aic-cg method for network structure optimization. The model's performance was gauged based on accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, using cross-validation on the TRAIN set and independent validation on the TEST set.

RESULTS

The model demonstrated satisfactory performance with an average accuracy of 0.85 (±0.05) and 0.80 on TRAIN and TEST datasets, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.82 (±0.14) and 0.87 (±0.07) for the TRAIN dataset, and 0.71 and 0.83 for the TEST dataset, respectively. A user-friendly tool was developed for clinical implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite several limitations, our Bayesian network model demonstrated a high level of accuracy in predicting the risk of developing severe haematological toxicity in gastrointestinal cancer patients receiving 5-FU-based chemotherapy. Future research should aim at model validation in larger cohorts of patients and different clinical settings.