Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of a population-based screening program for colorectal cancer

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies Using Active Learning and Monte Carlo Simulation

INTRODUCTION

Detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the early stages through available screening tests increases the patient's survival chances. Multimodal screening policies can benefit patients by providing more diverse screening options and balancing the risks and benefits of screening tests. We investigate the cost-effectiveness of a wide variety of multimodal CRC screening policies.

METHODS

We developed a Monte Carlo simulation framework to model CRC dynamics. We proposed an innovative calibration process using machine learning models to estimate age- and size-specific adenomatous polyps' progression and regression rates. The proposed approach significantly expedites the model parameter space search.

RESULTS

Two multimodal proposed policies (i.e., 1] colonoscopy at 50 y and fecal occult blood test annually between 60 and 75 y and 2] colonoscopy at 50 and 60 y and fecal immunochemical test annually between 70 and 75 y) are identified as efficient frontier policies. Both policies are cost-effective at a willingness to pay of $50,000. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the sensitivity of results to a change in screening test costs as well as adherence behavior. The sensitivity analysis results suggest that the proposed policies are mostly robust to the considered changes in screening test costs, as there is a significant overlap between the efficient frontier policies of the baseline and the sensitivity analysis cases. However, the efficient frontier policies were more sensitive to changes in adherence behavior.

CONCLUSION

Generally, combining stool-based tests with visual tests will benefit patients with higher life expectancy and a lower expected cost compared with unimodal screening policies. Colonoscopy at younger ages (when the colonoscopy complication risk is lower) and stool-based tests at older ages are shown to be more effective.

HIGHLIGHTS

We propose a detailed Markov model to capture the colorectal cancer (CRC) dynamics. The proposed Markov model presents the detailed dynamics of adenomas progression to CRC.We use more than 44,000 colonoscopy reports and available data in the literature to calibrate the proposed Markov model using an innovative approach that leverages machine learning models to expedite the calibration process.We investigate the cost-effectiveness of a wide variety of multimodal CRC screening policies and compare their performances with the current in-practice policies.

Cost-utility analysis of expanding the colorectal cancer screening policy in Flanders

OBJECTIVE

Since 2013, Flanders has introduced a screening programme for colorectal cancer for all citizens aged between 50 and 74 years. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-utility of an expansion of the colorectal cancer screening policy in Flanders (Belgium) and to place these findings in the international context.

METHODS

Cost-utility analysis using high-detail data about screening participation, screening results, and epidemiological data, a Markov cohort model has been constructed to study long-term costs and effects. A cost-utility analysis was performed as a three-way comparison between current, expanded (from age 45 years), and no screening scenarios, from a societal and healthcare perspective. Robustness was assessed by both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Analyses show that both current and expanded screening result in quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gains and are mostly cost-saving. Overall, 97.5% of Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) remained well below € 2000 per QALY for all comparisons. Parameters related to the colonoscopy that follows a positive test result such as compliance and cost are especially impactful on the cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening participation and screening costs have remained comparatively stable, making colorectal cancer screening a cost-effective (dominant) policy. Expanding the screen age to 45 years is also cost-effective (dominant) compared with current screening, albeit with a slimmer margin.

Comprehensive Review of Breast Cancer Consequences for the Patients and Their Coping Strategies: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Women with breast cancer usually face multiple short-term and long-term problems in dealing with their acute and chronic symptoms during and after cancer treatment. However, serious gaps remain in addressing these issues in clinical and public health practice.

METHODS

According to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we conducted a systematic literature search from 2000-2021 in electronic databases, including Medline, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar databases using predefined keywords.

RESULTS

The review identified several significant and interconnected problems in breast cancer patient's treatment and supportive care. The results revealed that these issues are very common among breast cancer patients, and specific attention and serious measures are needed to address these problems. Despite implementing different protocols and programs for covering and addressing these problems, serious gaps still exist in supporting breast cancer patients during clinical and follow-up care.

CONCLUSION

Developing innovative and holistic approaches and programs based on the multifactorial assessment of symptoms are suggested for addressing and covering the multidimensional requirements of this population. Consequently, thorough evaluation, education, treatment, and referrals should be provided for the most common sequelae of these patients by including appropriate medication, exercise, counselling, occupational therapy, and complementary therapies. The present study provides a more comprehensive source of information about breast cancer patient's medical and supportive needs in comparison with individual studies on symptom experiences.

A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Colorectal Cancer Screening in Europe: Have Studies Included Optimal Screening Intensities?

OBJECTIVE

To assess the range of strategies analysed in European cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with respect to the screening intervals, age ranges and test cut-offs used to define positivity, to examine how this might influence what strategies are found to be optimal, and compare them with the current screening policies with a focus on the screening interval.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus for peer-reviewed, model-based CEAs of CRC screening. We included studies on average-risk European populations using the guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) or faecal immunochemical test (FIT). We adapted Drummond's ten-point checklist to appraise study quality.

RESULTS

We included 39 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Biennial screening was the most frequently used interval which was analysed in 37 studies. Annual screening was assessed in 13 studies, all of which found it optimally cost-effective. Despite this, 25 of 26 European stool-based programmes use biennial screening. Many CEAs did not vary the age range, but the 14 that did generally found broader ranges optimal. Only 11 studies considered alternative FIT cut-offs, 9 of which found lower cut-offs superior. Conflicts between current policy and CEA evidence are less clear regarding age ranges and cut-offs.

CONCLUSIONS

The existing CEA evidence indicates that the widely adopted biennial frequency of stool-based testing in Europe is suboptimal. It is likely that many more lives could be saved throughout Europe if programmes could be offered with more intensive annual screening.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a community-based colorectal cancer screening program in Shanghai, China

Background

Since 2011, through the Community-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program in Shanghai, China (SHcsp), residents aged >50 years were offered initial colorectal cancer screening using the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and risk assessment questionnaire (RAQ) for free. Colonoscopy was then recommended for positive results.

Objective

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the Community-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program in Shanghai, China from the payer perspective.

Methods

This analysis estimated the long-term cost and effectiveness of the 2014-2016 SHcsp based on real-world follow-up data from the SHcsp database, Shanghai Cancer Registry System, vital statistics from Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention and inpatient CRC expense data from hospitals. A decision-tree model and Markov model were constructed to simulate the 25-year health outcomes. The screening branch was the cohort with a definite diagnosis of adenoma, advanced adenoma, and CRC. The other branch was residents who were neither screened nor treated until CRC symptoms appeared. A payer prospective was adopted to measure direct costs and effectiveness by life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and were discounted by 3%. Stimulation robustness was tested by one-way sensitivity analysis.

Results

Of 1,097,656 residents, 13,250 were diagnosed with adenoma, advanced adenoma, or CRC. Assuming those had not been found through screening, SHcsp resulted in 1,570.1 LYs and 13,984.3 QALYs gained at an extra cost of USD9.96 million. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was USD6,342.02 per LY and USD712.08 per QALY obtained, far below the threshold of USD59,598 of three-time GDP per capita in Shanghai.

Conclusion

The SHcsp was cost-effective than no screening strategy. The results were generalisable to the Chinese population for mass CRC screening.

Estimating Quality of Life Decrements in Oncology Using Time to Death

OBJECTIVES

The estimation of lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) requires the extrapolation of both length and quality of life (QoL). The extrapolation of QoL has received little attention in the literature. Here we explore the predictive value of "time to death" (TTD) for extrapolating QoL in oncology.

METHODS

We used QoL and survival data from the Patient Reported Outcomes Following Initial Treatment and Long-Term Evaluation of Survivorship registry, which is linked to The Netherlands Cancer Registry. QoL was assessed with EQ-5D and SF-6D. We tested the relationship between TTD and QoL using linear, 2-part, and beta regression models. Incremental QALYs were compared using the TTD approach and an annual age-related disutility approach using artificial survival data with varying mortality rates.

RESULTS

A total of 6 samples with >100 patients each were used for the analysis. A declining pattern in QoL was observed when patients were closer to death, confirming the predictive value of TTD for QoL. The declining pattern in QoL was most pronounced when QoL was measured with SF-6D. Proximity to death had a larger impact on QoL than age. Incremental QALYs were higher using the TTD approach than annual age-related disutility, ranging from +0.139 to +0.00003 depending on mortality rates.

CONCLUSIONS

TTD is a predictor variable for QoL. Using TTD allows cost-effectiveness models that lack QoL data to extrapolate morbidity using overall survival estimates. The TTD approach generates more incremental QALYs than an annual age-related disutility, most notably for longer survival periods.

A cost-effectiveness modeling study of treatment interventions for stage I to III esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Esophageal cancer causes considerable costs for health systems. Appropriate treatment options for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) can reduce medical costs and provide more improved outcomes for health systems and patients. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of treatment interventions for patients with ESCC according to the Iranian health system.

Material and methods

A five-state Markov model with a 15-year time horizon was performed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatment interventions based on stage for ESCC patients. Costs ($US 2021) and outcomes were calculated from the Iranian health system, with a discount rate of 3%. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the potential effects of uncertain variables on the model results.

Results

In stage I, the Endoscopic Mucosal Resection (EMR) treatment yielded the lowest total costs and highest total QALY for a total of $1473 per QALY, making it the dominant strategy compared with esophagectomy and EMR followed by ablation. In stages II and III, chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by surgery dominated esophagectomy. CRT followed by surgery was also cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $2172.8 per QALY compared to CRT.

Conclusion

From the Iranian health system’s perspective, EMR was the dominant strategy versus esophagectomy and EMR followed by ablation for ESCC patients in stage I. The CRT followed by surgery was a cost-effective intervention compared to CRT and esophagectomy in stages II and III.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-022-00352-5.

Cost-Effectiveness of Community-to-Clinic Tailored Navigation for Colorectal Cancer Screening in an Underserved Population: Economic Evaluation Alongside a Group-Randomized Trial

PURPOSE

Although screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) lowers mortality and morbidity and is generally cost-effective, little is known about the cost-effectiveness of screening promotion.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a group-randomized trial. Setting: Multicultural, underinsured communities in the Phoenix, Arizona, area.

SUBJECTS

English- or Spanish-speaking adults who were out of compliance for CRC screening guidelines.

INTERVENTION

All participants received community-based group education (GE), and the intervention group also received tailored community-to-clinic navigation (GE+TN).

MEASURES

Number of participants screened and costs of tailored navigation, clinic visits, and CRC screening tests.

ANALYSIS

Incremental cost per additional person screened from the perspective of the healthcare system with bootstrapped confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Community sites were recruited and randomized to GE (n = 120) and GE + TN (n = 119). Across these sites 1154 individuals were screened, 504 were eligible, and 345 attended the group education class (n = 134 GE; n = 211 GE + TN). Screening rates (26.5% GE + TN; 10.4% GE; 16.1% increase 95% CI: 7%, 23%) and costs per participant ($271 GE + TN; $167 GE; a net cost increase of $104 95% CI: $1, $189) were significantly higher in the intervention group. Incremental cost-effectiveness was $646 (95% CI: -$68, $953) per additional person screened.

CONCLUSION

Depending on the value placed on an additional person screened, the addition of community-to-clinic tailored navigation to a community-based CRC screening promotion program may be highly cost-effective.

Health economic studies of colorectal cancer and the contribution of administrative data: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Several forces are contributing to an increase in the number of people living with and surviving colorectal cancer (CRC). However, due to the lack of available data, little is known about the implications of these forces. In recent years, the use of administrative records to inform research has been increasing. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential contribution that administrative data could have on the health economic research of CRC.

METHODS

To achieve this aim, we conducted a systematic review of the health economic CRC literature published in the United Kingdom and Europe within the last decade (2009-2019).

RESULTS

Thirty-seven relevant studies were identified and divided into economic evaluations, cost of illness studies and cost consequence analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of administrative data, including cancer registry, screening and hospital records, within the health economic research of CRC is commonplace. However, we found that this data often come from regional databases, which reduces the generalisability of results. Further, administrative data appear less able to contribute towards understanding the wider and indirect costs associated with the disease. We explore several ways in which various sources of administrative data could enhance future research in this area.

Cancer diagnostic tools to aid decision-making in primary care: mixed-methods systematic reviews and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Tools based on diagnostic prediction models are available to help general practitioners diagnose cancer. It is unclear whether or not tools expedite diagnosis or affect patient quality of life and/or survival.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate the evidence on the validation, clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and availability and use of cancer diagnostic tools in primary care.

METHODS

Two systematic reviews were conducted to examine the clinical effectiveness (review 1) and the development, validation and accuracy (review 2) of diagnostic prediction models for aiding general practitioners in cancer diagnosis. Bibliographic searches were conducted on MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science) in May 2017, with updated searches conducted in November 2018. A decision-analytic model explored the tools' clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in colorectal cancer. The model compared patient outcomes and costs between strategies that included the use of the tools and those that did not, using the NHS perspective. We surveyed 4600 general practitioners in randomly selected UK practices to determine the proportions of general practices and general practitioners with access to, and using, cancer decision support tools. Association between access to these tools and practice-level cancer diagnostic indicators was explored.

RESULTS

Systematic review 1 - five studies, of different design and quality, reporting on three diagnostic tools, were included. We found no evidence that using the tools was associated with better outcomes. Systematic review 2 - 43 studies were included, reporting on prediction models, in various stages of development, for 14 cancer sites (including multiple cancers). Most studies relate to QCancer® (ClinRisk Ltd, Leeds, UK) and risk assessment tools.

DECISION MODEL

In the absence of studies reporting their clinical outcomes, QCancer and risk assessment tools were evaluated against faecal immunochemical testing. A linked data approach was used, which translates diagnostic accuracy into time to diagnosis and treatment, and stage at diagnosis. Given the current lack of evidence, the model showed that the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tools in colorectal cancer relies on demonstrating patient survival benefits. Sensitivity of faecal immunochemical testing and specificity of QCancer and risk assessment tools in a low-risk population were the key uncertain parameters.

SURVEY

Practitioner- and practice-level response rates were 10.3% (476/4600) and 23.3% (227/975), respectively. Cancer decision support tools were available in 83 out of 227 practices (36.6%, 95% confidence interval 30.3% to 43.1%), and were likely to be used in 38 out of 227 practices (16.7%, 95% confidence interval 12.1% to 22.2%). The mean 2-week-wait referral rate did not differ between practices that do and practices that do not have access to QCancer or risk assessment tools (mean difference of 1.8 referrals per 100,000 referrals, 95% confidence interval -6.7 to 10.3 referrals per 100,000 referrals).

LIMITATIONS

There is little good-quality evidence on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tools. Many diagnostic prediction models are limited by a lack of external validation. There are limited data on current UK practice and clinical outcomes of diagnostic strategies, and there is no evidence on the quality-of-life outcomes of diagnostic results. The survey was limited by low response rates.

CONCLUSION

The evidence base on the tools is limited. Research on how general practitioners interact with the tools may help to identify barriers to implementation and uptake, and the potential for clinical effectiveness.

FUTURE WORK

Continued model validation is recommended, especially for risk assessment tools. Assessment of the tools' impact on time to diagnosis and treatment, stage at diagnosis, and health outcomes is also recommended, as is further work to understand how tools are used in general practitioner consultations.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017068373 and CRD42017068375.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Simulation modeling validity and utility in colorectal cancer screening delivery: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

This study sought to assess the impact and validity of simulation modeling in informing decision making in a complex area of healthcare delivery: colorectal cancer (CRC) screening.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched 10 electronic databases for English-language articles published between January 1, 2008, and March 1, 2019, that described the development of a simulation model with a focus on average-risk CRC screening delivery. Included articles were reviewed for evidence that the model was validated, and provided real or potential contribution to informed decision making using the GRADE EtD (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Evidence to Decision) framework.

RESULTS

A total of 43 studies met criteria. The majority used Markov modeling (n = 31 [72%]) and sought to determine cost-effectiveness, compare screening modalities, or assess effectiveness of screening. No study reported full model validation and only (58%) reported conducting any validation. Majority of models were developed to address a specific health systems or policy question; few articles report the model's impact on this decision (n = 39 [91%] vs. n = 5 [12%]). Overall, models provided evidence relevant to every element important to decision makers as outlined in the GRADE EtD framework.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Simulation modeling contributes evidence that is considered valuable to decision making in CRC screening delivery, particularly in assessing cost-effectiveness and comparing screening modalities. However, the actual impact on decisions and validity of models is lacking in the literature. Greater validity testing, impact assessment, and standardized reporting of both is needed to understand and demonstrate the reliability and utility of simulation modeling.

Cost Effectiveness of Endoscopic Resection vs Transanal Resection of Complex Benign Rectal Polyps

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Complex benign rectal polyps can be managed with transanal surgery or with endoscopic resection (ER). Though the complication rate after ER is lower than transanal surgery, recurrence is higher. Patients lost to follow up after ER might therefore be at increased risk for rectal cancer. We evaluated the costs, benefits, and cost effectiveness of ER compared to 2 surgical techniques for removing complex rectal polyps, using a 50-year time horizon-this allowed us to capture rates of cancer development among patients lost from follow-up surveillance.

METHODS

We created a Markov model to simulate the lifetime outcomes and costs of ER, transanal endoscopic microsurgery (TEM), and transanal minimally invasive surgery (TAMIS) for the management of a complex benign rectal polyp. We assessed the effect of surveillance by allowing a portion of the patients to be lost to follow up. We calculated the cost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or each intervention over a 50-year time horizon.

RESULTS

We found that TEM was slightly more effective than TAMIS and ER (TEM, 19.54 QALYs; TAMIS, 19.53 QALYs; and ER, 19.53 QALYs), but ER had a lower lifetime discounted cost (ER cost $7161, TEM cost $10,459, and TAMIS cost $11,253). TEM was not cost effective compared to ER, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $485,333/QALY. TAMIS was dominated by TEM. TEM became cost effective when the mortality from ER exceeded 0.63%, or if the loss to follow up rate exceeded 25.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a Markov model, we found that ER, TEM, and TAMIS have similar effectiveness, but ER is less expensive, in management of benign rectal polyps. As the rate of loss to follow up increases, transanal surgery becomes more effective relative to ER.

Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies-A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Widespread screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) has reduced its incidence and mortality. Previous studies investigated the economic effects of CRC screening. We performed a systematic review to provide up-to-date evidence of the cost effectiveness of CRC screening strategies by answering 3 research questions.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, National Institute for Health Research Economic Evaluation Database, Social Sciences Citation Index (via the Web of Science), EconLit (American Economic Association) and 3 supplemental databases for original articles published in English from January 2010 through December 2017. All monetary values were converted to US dollars (year 2016). For all research questions, we extracted, or calculated (if necessary), per-person costs and life years (LYs) and/or quality-adjusted LYs, as well as the incremental costs per LY gained or quality-adjusted LY gained compared with the baseline strategy. A cost-saving strategy was defined as one that was less costly and equally or more effective than the baseline strategy. The net monetary benefit approach was used to answer research question 2.

RESULTS

Our review comprised 33 studies (17 from Europe, 11 from North America, 4 from Asia, and 1 from Australia). Annual and biennial guaiac-based fecal occult blood tests, annual and biennial fecal immunochemical tests, colonoscopy every 10 years, and flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years were cost effective (even cost saving in most US models) compared to no screening. In addition, colonoscopy every 10 years was less costly and/or more effective than other common strategies in the United States. Newer strategies such as computed tomographic colonography, every 5 or 10 years, was cost effective compared with no screening.

CONCLUSIONS

In an updated review, we found that common CRC screening strategies and computed tomographic colonography continued to be cost effective compared to no screening. There were discrepancies among studies from different regions, which could be associated with the model types or model assumptions.

Budget Impact Analysis of Cancer Screening: A Methodological Review

BACKGROUND

Budget impact analyses (BIAs) describe changes in intervention- and disease-related costs of new technologies. Evidence on the quality of BIAs for cancer screening is lacking.

OBJECTIVES

We systematically reviewed the literature and methods to assess how closely BIA guidelines are followed when BIAs are performed for cancer-screening programs.

DATA SOURCES

Systematic searches were conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit, CRD (Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York), and CEA registry of the Tufts Medical Center.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Eligible studies were BIAs evaluating cancer-screening programs published in English, 2010-2018.

SYNTHESIS METHODS

Standardized evidence tables were generated to extract and compare study characteristics outlined by the ISPOR BIA Task Force.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies were identified evaluating screening for breast (5), colorectal (6), cervical (3), lung (1), prostate (3), and skin (1) cancers. Model designs included decision-analytic models (13) and simple cost calculators (6). From all studies, only 53% reported costs for a minimum of 3 years, 58% compared to a mix of screening options, 42% reported model validation, and 37% reported uncertainty analysis for participation rates. The quality of studies appeared to be independent of cancer site.

LIMITATIONS

"Gray" literature was not searched, misinterpretation is possible due to limited information in publications, and focus was on international methodological guidelines rather than regional guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review highlights considerable variability in the extent to which BIAs evaluating cancer-screening programs followed recommended guidelines. The annual budget impact at least over the next 3-5 years should be estimated. Validation and uncertainty analysis should always be conducted. Continued dissemination efforts of existing best-practice guidelines are necessary to ensure high-quality analyses.

Implications of CRISPR-Based Germline Engineering for Cancer Survivors

Cancer survivors can carry germline mutations that will be transmitted to their progeny. Today, many of these mutations have been identified and can be tracked. With the recent development of genome-editing technologies and CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats), the possibility of genetically modifying the human germline-gametes and embryos-has never been closer. This perspective has sparked a controversy within the scientific community with reactions ranging from calls for a ban on germline modification to cautious approval of further research. This Editorial analyzes the possible adoption of CRISPR-based germline engineering to prevent the spread of cancer predispositions in the human population. We discuss whether the genomic edition of human sperm and eggs would contribute to rectifying or altering the heritable genome. We anticipate the emergence of a new form of liberal eugenics fueled by a logic of offer and demand from stakeholders such as cancer survivors and their relatives and offspring, but also from fertility clinics, biotech firms, insurers, and clinicians. From a regulatory perspective, validating the clinical safety and utility of CRISPR-based germline engineering is an essential step. However, with time, gradually perfecting the technology and assessing the economic benefits for stakeholders could soften society's resistance and align opinions in support of genomic decontamination of human germlines. This progressive shift would be justified in the name of cancer prevention as well as a moral obligation to facilitate the conception of cancer-free children at a cost that is acceptable to individuals and health systems.

Long-term evaluation of benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in Australia: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

No assessment of the National Bowel Screening Program (NBCSP) in Australia, which considers all downstream benefits, costs, and harms, has been done. We aimed to use a comprehensive natural history model and the most recent information about cancer treatment costs to estimate long-term benefits, costs, and harms of the NBCSP (2 yearly immunochemical faecal occult blood testing screening at age 50-74 years) and evaluate the incremental effect of improved screening participation under different scenarios.

METHODS

In this modelling study, a microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, which simulates the development of colorectal cancer via both the conventional adenoma-carcinoma and serrated pathways was used to simulate the NBCSP in 2006-40, taking into account the gradual rollout of NBCSP in 2006-20. The base-case scenario assumed 40% screening participation (currently observed behaviour) and two alternative scenarios assuming 50% and 60% participation by 2020 were modelled. Aggregate year-by-year screening, diagnosis, treatment and surveillance-related costs, resource utilisation (number of screening tests and colonoscopies), and health outcomes (incident colorectal cancer cases and colorectal cancer deaths) were estimated, as was the cost-effectiveness of the NBCSP.

FINDINGS

With current levels of participation (40%), the NBCSP is expected to prevent 92 200 cancer cases and 59 000 deaths over the period 2015-40; an additional 24 300 and 37 300 cases and 16 800 and 24 800 deaths would be prevented if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. In 2020, an estimated 101 000 programme-related colonoscopies will be done, associated with about 270 adverse events; an additional 32 500 and 49 800 colonoscopies and 88 and 134 adverse events would occur if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. The overall number needed to screen (NNS) is 647-788 per death prevented, with 52-59 colonoscopies per death prevented. The programme is cost-effective due to the cancer treatment costs averted (cost-effectiveness ratio compared with no screening at current participation, AUS$3014 [95% uncertainty interval 1807-5583] per life-year saved) in the cost-effectiveness analysis. In the budget impact analysis, reduced annual expenditure on colorectal cancer control is expected by 2030, with expenditure reduced by a cumulative AUS$1·7 billion, AUS$2·0 billion, and AUS$2·1 billion (2015 prices) between 2030 and 2040, at participation rates of 40%, 50%, and 60%, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

The NBCSP has potential to save 83 800 lives over the period 2015-40 if coverage rates can be increased to 60%. By contrast, the associated harms, although an important consideration, are at a smaller magnitude at the population level. The programme is highly cost-effective and within a decade of full roll-out, there will be reduced annual health systems expenditure on colorectal cancer control due to the impact of screening.

FUNDING

Australia Postgraduate Award PhD Scholarship, Translational Cancer Research Network Top-up scholarship (supported by Cancer Institute NSW) and Cancer Council NSW.