Methotrexate-treated ectopic pregnancy: beta human chorionic gonadotropin serum changes as a success predictor using a mathematical model validation

Can failure be predicted in methotrexate treatment with the modified parameter?

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to increase the prediction of success of single-dose methotrexate therapy in ectopic pregnancy patients with modified parameters obtained from complete blood count and beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) parameters. In this way, it was aimed to predict patients whose methotrexate treatment may fail and rupture, to avoid unnecessary methotrexate treatment, to shorten the duration of hospital stay and to reduce patient mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

233 patients diagnosed with ectopic pregnancy between January 1, 2017, and March 01, 2022, in the obstetrics and gynecology service of a tertiary center were included in the study.

RESULTS

The mean of β-hCG was 1976 in the methotrexate group and 2358 in the surgery group (p < 0.05). The ROC curve determined the effect of BW (β-hCGxWBC/1000) and BP (β-hCGx1000/PLT) markers in diagnosing patients who will need surgery in ectopic pregnancy. The areas under the ROC curve for β-hCG, BW and BP were 0.86, 0.99 and 0.94, respectively (p < 0.05). β-hCG > 2139.03, BW > 30.96 and BP > 10.17 values were significantly associated with the need for surgery in ectopic pregnancy patients (p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis revealed that a 1-unit increase in BP caused a statistically significant 1.77-fold increase in surgical need in patients with ectopic pregnancy. In contrast, a 1-unit increase in BW caused a 2.34-fold increase in surgical need (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The study results showed that BW and BP values together with β-hCG are effective in predicting ectopic pregnancy patients who may undergo surgery.

Time to resolution of tubal ectopic pregnancy following methotrexate treatment: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the time to resolution of tubal ectopic pregnancy after methotrexate treatment.

METHODS

A 14-year retrospective cohort study was performed from 2004-2018 and assessed 216 women treated with single-dose methotrexate for tubal ectopic pregnancy. Women were treated using a single-dose protocol of intramuscular methotrexate (50mg/m2) for confirmed tubal ectopic pregnancy on ultrasound. Ectopic pregnancies were included if the ectopic pregnancy mass was <35mm, no evidence of rupture and no embryonic cardiac activity. Serum hCG was measured on day 1, 4 and 7 of treatment and then at standard weekly intervals until resolution. Where there was not a ≥15% decline in hCG from day 4 and day 7, a second dose of methotrexate was administered. The primary outcome was time to resolution (days), with serum hCG <5 IU/L considered resolved. The secondary outcome was need for rescue surgery.

RESULTS

Among women who did not proceed to surgery, the median time to resolution was 22 days (IQR 14,34). Time to resolution and need for rescue surgery increased with baseline hCG. When hCG was <1000 IU/L, the median was 20 days (IQR 13,29) but 34.5 days (IQR 22,48) with hCG >2000 IU/L. Early hCG trends were predictive of time to resolution and likelihood of rescue surgery; a hCG rise of >1000 IU/L between Days 1-4 increased time to resolution to 61 days (IQR 35,80) and an odds ratio of rescue surgery of 28.6 (95% C.I. 5.3,155.4).

CONCLUSION

The median time to resolution for ectopic pregnancies treated with methotrexate is 22 days and associated with baseline hCG levels. The predictive value of baseline hCG may be useful in clinical decision making and counselling women considering methotrexate for ectopic pregnancy.

Evaluation of maternal serum biomarkers in predicting outcome of successful expectant management of tubal ectopic pregnancies

OBJECTIVE

To assess the value of multiple serum biomarkers for the prediction of successful outcome of expectant management in women with tubal ectopic pregnancy (TEP).

STUDY DESIGN

Women with a conclusive ultrasound diagnosis of TEP had a blood test to measure β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG), progesterone, inhibin A, activin A and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) at the initial visit. Women presenting with pain, serum β-hCG ≥ 1500 IU, evidence of a live ectopic pregnancy or a significant haemoperitoneum were advised to have emergency surgery. Women eligible for expectant management were followed-up prospectively until serum β-hCG declined to non-pregnant level or surgical treatment was required.

RESULTS

A total of 93 women with a TEP were included in the final cohort. Emergency surgery was carried out in 42/93 (45 %) of women whilst 51/93 (55 %) were managed expectantly. Of the latter group, 42/51 (82 %) had successful expectant management and 9/51(18 %) required surgical procedure after a period of follow up. On multi-variable analysis, only higher values of serum β-hCG and progesterone at the initial visit were associated with a lower chance of successful expectant management of TEP. A one-unit increase in either variable on the log-scale was associated with an approximate 20-fold reduction in the odds of a successful outcome.

CONCLUSION(S)

Serum β-hCG and progesterone were significantly lower in women who had successful expectant management of TEP. Other biomarkers under consideration were not significantly different in women with successful and failed expectant management.