The role of HCG increment in the 48 h prior to methotrexate treatment as a predictor for treatment success

Predictive value of serum βHCG level in ectopic pregnancy: A cross sectional study

Background and Aims

Ectopic pregnancy (EP) is a potentially life-threatening emergency. We investigate the predictive value of serum βHCG level and it's changes from the baseline to the 4th and 7th days after single dose (SD) methotrexate (MTX) treatment in successful treatment of tubal EP. It is important for early diagnosis of EP.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, 690 women with tubal EP and under treatment with SD MTX were evaluated. Successful and failed groups were analyzed on the baseline, 4th and 7th days of MTX treatment. Data were analyzed using SPSS22 software. All p values of less than 0/05 were considered satistically significant.

Results

SD MTX treatment was successful in 584 (84.7%) patients. The mean baseline ßHCG value was 882.35 ± 430.76 in the successful group and 1083.99 ± 1080.25 in the failed group. There was a 19.53% decrease in ßHCG values between the baseline and 4th days in the successful group and a 12.94% increase in the failed group (p < 0.001). On days baseline, 4 and 7; receiver operating characteristic curve analysis's value was 504.5, 429, 279 for cut off; 58%, 73%, 81% for sensitivity and 51%, 52%, 55% for specificity, respectively.

Conclusion

A decrease in the ßHCG value and/or a cut-off decrease of 59.9% on the baseline, 4th day and 81.6% between the baseline and 7th days, can predict the successful treatment of tubal EP with SD MTX.

Daily variations and levels of human chorionic gonadotropin before methotrexate treatment as predictors of treatment success

AIM

The aim of this study is to investigate the role of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) daily variations and levels prior to methotrexate treatment as predictors for treatment outcome.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients who had a sonographically confirmed ectopic pregnancy at the International Peace Maternity and Child Health Hospital between November 2015 and June 2020. The associations of hCG levels and daily variations with the treatment success were evaluated by multivariable logistic regression and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Establish a nomogram that predicts how methotrexate (MTX) therapy will turn out. The performance of the model was assessed utilizing concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curves, and calibration plots.

RESULTS

The median serum hCG levels before treatment and hCG daily variation in the failure group were higher than those in the success group (487.8 vs. 270.7 IU/L, -1.86% vs. 7.29%, both p < 0.01). According to the ROC curve analysis, the cutoff values of serum hCG level before treatment and daily variations were 617.35 IU/L and 1.76%/day. By multivariable logistic regression analysis, serum hCG levels before treatment (odds ratio [OR]: 1.001, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.000 ~ 1.001) and hCG daily variations were independently associated with the treatment success (OR: 1.033, 95% CI: 1.015 ~ 1.052). The nomogram was effective at predicting the outcome of MTX treatment with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.717 (p < 0.001). The nomogram's calibration curve was almost parallel to the ideal diagonal line.

CONCLUSION

We successfully created a nomogram based on serum hCG levels before treatment and hCG daily changes to anticipate the result of MTX therapy, which could assist medical professionals in selecting therapeutic schedule for patients with tubal pregnancies.

Rate of hourly change in serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin levels in ectopic pregnancy can predict the success of treatment with single-dose methotrexate: A retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the success of treatment with single-dose methotrexate (SD MTX) for ectopic pregnancy can be predicted using the rate of change in serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) level.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective observational study conducted at a tertiary referral centre. The study population included women who underwent treatment with SD-MTX for ectopic pregnancy. We analysed data of 119 women treated with SD-MTX for ectopic pregnancy at the Galilee Medical Centre between 2012 and 2016. Success was defined as a <15% decrease in β-hCG level between days 4 and 7, with no need for a second dose of MTX or surgical intervention. The dynamics of serum β-hCG levels before treatment were considered as the main outcomes.

RESULTS

SD-MTX administration was successful in 77 (65%) patients. The average baseline β-hCG level was significantly lower in women with successful outcomes than in those without successful outcomes (763.1 vs. 1429.63 mIU/L, respectively, p < 0.0048). The hourly change in β-hCG level was significantly lower in those with successful outcomes than in those without successful outcomes (0.38 vs. 5.73 mIU/mL, respectively, p < 0.0023). The percentage change in β-hCG level was 13.1%, which was not significantly different between the groups (p < 0.133). At serum β-hCG level < 946 mIU/mL and sac size < 2.55 cm, the treatment was successful in 88% of women.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose a predictive model of hourly change in β-hCG to achieve successful treatment using SD-MTX in ectopic pregnancy based on objective and measurable criteria.

Outcome of methotrexate treatment for ectopic pregnancies among obese women

OBJECTIVE

Single dose administration of methotrexate (MTX) is considered the first line of treatment in selected patients with an ectopic pregnancy (EP). However, data regarding MTX efficacy among obese patients is limited. We sought to investigate the efficacy of MTX single dose regimen among obese patients MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study conducted at a gynecology department in a tertiary teaching hospital, between January 2010 and December 2018, including women diagnosed with an EP and treated by a single-dose regimen of MTX. We compared success rate and gestation characteristics between obese and non-obese women.

RESULTS

Overall, 195 women were treated with single-dose intramuscular MTX for EP during the study period. Of those, 31 women (15.9%) were obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and the rest 164 (84.1%) were of normal body weight. Median MTX dosage for the obese group was 95 milligrams (IQR 91-104) vs. 83 milligrams (IQR 78-87) for the non-obese group. Treatment success rate of the overall cohort was 66.6% (130/195) and treatment success rate of single-dose MTX was comparable between the obese and non-obese groups (64.5% vs. 67.0%, p = 0.78). Obese patients were older as compared to non-obese (median age 33 vs. 29, p = 0.03). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, percentage hCG change from day 1 to day 4 was the only factor associated with treatment success (aOR 1.02; 95%CI 1.01, 1.04, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Single-dose MTX treatment among obese patients diagnosed with ectopic pregnancy led to similar success rates as compared to non-obese patients.

Risk factors for recurrent ectopic pregnancy following single-dose methotrexate treatment

Objective: Our study aimed to investigate the predisposing factors for recurrence of an ectopic pregnancy (EP) following single-dose methotrexate (MTX) treatment for a primary EP. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study performed in a tertiary care medical centre including all patients diagnosed with primary EP and treated with a single-dose regimen of intramuscular MTX. EPs with future recurrence were compared with first time only EPs, to identify risk factors for recurrent EP. Forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analyses were subsequently carried out. Results: The study included 272 women. Of those, 22 (8.1%) had a recurrent EP. Women in the recurrent EP group had a higher rate of abortions (45.5% vs 32.7%; p = 0.02), previous pelvic surgery (45.5% vs 6.5%; p < 0.001) and both pelvic and uterine surgery (4.5% vs 1.6%; p < 0.001). Conception by assisted reproductive technology (ART) was more common among the non-recurrent EP group (23.0% vs 4.5%; p = 0.04). Success of single-dose MTX treatment was lower in the recurrent EP group compared with the non-recurrent EP group (36.4% vs 65.7%; p = 0.006). A history of pelvic surgery was independently associated with recurrent EP (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 17.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.9, 63.2; p = 0.001). Treatment success of single-dose MTX was independently protective for recurrent EP (adjusted OR 0.25; 95% CI 0.08, 0.76; p = 0.02). Conclusions: Among women with an EP, attention should be paid to those with previous pelvic surgery. Efforts should be made to achieve medical treatment success to prevent recurrent EP.

Early prediction of the success of methotrexate treatment success by 24-hour pretreatment increment in HCG and day 1-4 change in HCG

RESEARCH QUESTION

Several studies have tried to identify early markers of treatment outcome after methotrexate (MTX) treatment for ectopic pregnancy, including pretreatment and day 4 human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) concentrations and their corresponding changes, and the increment in HCG during the initial 24 h after treatment. There have, however, been conflicting results. This study aimed to re-evaluate the role of these markers in the earlier identification of treatment success in a large cohort of women.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study including women diagnosed with an ectopic pregnancy and treated with a regimen of a single dose of MTX. A comparison of maternal and gestation characteristics was made between groups in whom treatment was successful or failed.

RESULTS

A total of 292 women treated with single-dose intramuscular MTX for ectopic pregnancy were included in this study. In the overall cohort, the treatment success rate with a single dose of MTX was 62.7% (183/292). Only two independent determinants were significantly associated with treatment success: the initial 24-h percentage increase in HCG (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-2.63; P < 0.001) and the percentage change in HCG from day 1 to day 4 (adjusted OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.21; P < 0.001). The optimal cut-off points for prediction of treatment success were an increment of less than 17% in the 24 h before treatment and a decrease of more than 22% between the day 1 and day 4 HCG concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

A small increase in HCG concentration 24 h before treatment with MTX, alongside a decline in HCG concentration from day 1 to day 4, may predict the success of medical treatment for an ectopic pregnancy.

Day 1 change in maternal serum β-HCG levels as an early predictor of successful medical therapy in ectopic pregnancies

Objective: To evaluate the role of β-HCG level changes between days 0 and 1 as an early predictor of methotrexate success in cases of tubal ectopic pregnancy.Methods: A retrospective study included 86 tubal ectopic pregnancies treated with a single-dose methotrexate protocol of 50 mg/m² of body surface. β-HCG measurements were taken on days 0, 1, 4 and 7 where day 0 is the day of methotrexate injection. Day 0 β-HCG and the percentage change in β-HCG level between days 0 and 1 (HCG index) were calculated and compared between patients who were successfully or unsuccessfully treated. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves were plotted to identify the best cutoff levels.Results: The average level of β-HCG (1416.8 versus 2502.5 IU/L, p=.001) and its increment after 24 hours (12.9 versus 27.1%, p=.001) were significantly lower in the successful treatment group. ROC curves for β-HCG level and its relative increment revealed that cutoff values of ≤1550 IU/L and ≤13% increment showed a sensitivity of 90 and 70% respectively for successful methotrexate treatment.Conclusion: Day 0 β-HCG level ≤1550 IU/L and an increment of ≤13% after 24 hours are early predictors of successful methotrexate treatment for tubal ectopic pregnancy.

Human chorionic gonadotropin value and its change prior to methotrexate treatment can predict the prognosis in ectopic tubal pregnancies

PURPOSE

To investigate the role of beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) level and its change prior to methotrexate (MTX) treatment as predictors of treatment success and to access the posttreatment observation period for ectopic tubal pregnancy.

METHODS

Clinical data of 41 females treated with MTX for tubal pregnancies were reviewed and analyzed retrospectively.

RESULTS

Among 41 patients, 34 achieved complete resolution without surgery. No statistically significant difference was observed in the presence of hemorrhagic ascites, serum progesterone levels, or diameters of adnexal mass between the MTX success and failure groups. Serum HCG levels on the day of MTX administration (day 1) were significantly lower in the MTX success group. Moreover, % HCG change per day, which represents the increment ratio of HCG prior to MTX treatment, was significantly lower in the MTX success group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated that the treatment success was predicted by % HCG change per day less than +12.6% per day with a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 71%. The duration from treatment to complete recovery was strongly correlated with day 1 HCG levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Pretreatment HCG change is a significant predictor of therapeutic success of MTX treatment, and the treatment period may be predicted from initial HCG levels.

Predicting success of methotrexate treatment by pretreatment HCG level and 24-hour HCG increment

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-HCG) level and its 24-hour increment as predictors of successful methotrexate treatment for ectopic pregnancy.

METHODS

Data were retrospectively reviewed from women with ectopic pregnancy who were treated by single-dose methotrexate (50 mg/m² ) at a university hospital in Jerusalem, Israel, between January 1, 2000, and June 30, 2015. Serum β-HCG before treatment and its percentage increment in the 24 hours before treatment were compared between treatment success and failure groups.

RESULTS

Sixty-nine women were included in the study. Single-dose methotrexate treatment was successful for 44 (63.8%) women. Both mean β-HCG level and its 24-hour increment were lower for women with successful treatment than for those with failed treatment (respectively, 1224 IU\L vs 2362 IU\L, P=0.018; and 13.5% vs 29.6%, P=0.009). Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis yielded cutoff values of 1600 IU\L and 14% increment with a positive predictive value of 75% and 82%, respectively, for treatment success. β-HCG level and its 24-hour increment were independent predictors of treatment outcome by logistic regression (both P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

A β-HCG increment of less than 14% in the 24 hours before single-dose methotrexate and serum β-HCG of less than 1600 IU\L were found to be good predictors of treatment success.