External validation of a simplified BCLC staging system for early hepatocellular carcinoma

A Web-Based Prediction Model for Cancer-Specific Survival of Elderly Patients With Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Study Based on SEER Database

Background: Primary liver cancer is a common malignant tumor primarily represented by hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The number of elderly patients with early HCC is increasing, and older age is related to a worse prognosis. However, an accurate predictive model for the prognosis of these patients is still lacking.

Methods: Data of eligible elderly patients with early HCC in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2010 to 2016 were downloaded. Patients from 2010 to 2015 were randomly assigned to the training cohort (n = 1093) and validation cohort (n = 461). Patients' data in 2016 (n = 431) was used for external validation. Independent prognostic factors were obtained using univariate and multivariate analyses. Based on these factors, a cancer-specific survival (CSS) nomogram was constructed. The predictive performance and clinical practicability of our nomogram were validated. According to the risk scores of our nomogram, patients were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. A survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier curves and log-rank tests.

Results: Age, race, T stage, histological grade, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent predictors for CSS and thus were included in our nomogram. In the training cohort and validation cohort, the concordance indices (C-indices) of our nomogram were 0.739 (95% CI: 0.714–0.764) and 0.756 (95% CI: 0.719–0.793), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) showed similar results. Calibration curves revealed high consistency between observations and predictions. In external validation cohort, C-index (0.802, 95%CI: 0.778–0.826) and calibration curves also revealed high consistency between observations and predictions. Compared with the TNM stage, nomogram-related decision curve analysis (DCA) curves indicated better clinical practicability. Kaplan–Meier curves revealed that CSS significantly differed among the three different risk groups. In addition, an online prediction tool for CSS was developed.

Conclusions: A web-based prediction model for CSS of elderly patients with early HCC was constructed and validated, and it may be helpful for the prognostic evaluation, therapeutic strategy selection, and follow-up management of these patients.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of validated prognostic models for resected hepatocellular carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

Many prognostic models for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) have been developed to inform patients and doctors about individual prognosis. Previous reviews of these models were qualitative and did not assess performance at external validation. We assessed the performance of prognostic models for HCC and set a benchmark for biomarker studies.

METHODS

All externally validated models predicting survival for patients with resected HCC were systematically reviewed. After selection, we extracted descriptive statistics and aggregated c-indices using meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight validated prognostic models were included. Models used on average 7 (IQR:4-9) prognostic factors. Tumor size, tumor number, and vascular invasion were almost always included. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was commonly incorporated since 2007. Recently, the more subjective items ascites and encephalopathy have been dropped. Eight established models performed poor to moderate at external validation, with a pooled C-index below 0.7; including the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system, the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th edition, the Cancer of the Liver Italian (CLIP) Program, and the Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) score. Out of 24 prognostic models predicting OS, only 6 (25%) had good performance at external validation with pooled C-indices above 0.7; the Li-post (0.77), Li-OS (0.74), Yang-pre (0.74), Yang-post (0.76), Shanghai-score (0.70), and Wang-nomogram (0.71). Models improved over time, but overall performance and study quality remained low.

CONCLUSIONS

Six validated prognostic models demonstrated good performance for predicting survival after resection of HCC. These models can guide patients and doctors and are a benchmark for future models incorporating novel biomarkers.

Micronvasive behaviour of single small hepatocellular carcinoma: which treatment?

BACKGROUND

Microinvasion (MI), defined as infiltration of the portal or hepatic vein or bile duct and intrahepatic metastasis are accurate indicators of a poor prognosis for mall hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC). A previous study showed that intraoperative ultrasound (IOUS) definition of MI-HCC had a high concordance with histological findings. Aim of this study is to evaluate overall survival and recurrence patterns of patients with MI-HCC submitted to hepatic resection (HR) or laparoscopic ablation therapies (LAT).

METHODS

A total of 171 consecutive patients (78 h; 93 LAT) with single, small HCC (< 3 cm) with a MI pattern at IOUS examination were compared analyzing overall survival and recurrence patterns using univariate and multivariate analysis and weighting by propensity score.

RESULTS

Overall recurrences were similar in the 2 groups (HR: 51 patients (65%); LAT: 66 patients (71%)). The rate of local tumor progression in the HR group was very low (5 pts; 6%) in comparison to LAT group (22 pts; 24%; p = 0.002). The overall survival curves of HR are significantly better than that of the LAT group (p = 0.0039). On the propensity score Cox model, overall mortality was predicted by the surgical treatment with a Hazard ratio 1.68 (1.08-2.623) (p = 0.022).

CONCLUSIONS

If technically feasible and in patients fit for surgery, HR with an adequate tumor margin should be preferred to LAT in patients with MI-HCC at IOUS evaluation, to eradicate MI features near the main nodule, which are relatively frequent even in small HCC (< 3 cm).

Benefits of the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer System for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Staging

PURPOSE

We aimed to emphasize the prognostic impact of differences included in the 8th versus the previous 7th edition of AJCC (American Joint Committee on Cancer) Cancer Staging manual for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

A number of 87 consecutive HCCs were retrospectively evaluated and staged, using the 7th and 8th edition of AJCC staging systems. The clinicopathological parameters were correlated with the overall survival rate. No preoperative chemotherapy was received by any of the patients.

RESULTS

According to the 7th edition of AJCC manual, 52 of the 87 cases were staged as pT2 and 35 as pT1. After restaging, according to the 8th edition, 23 of the 52 pT2 cases were understaged as pT1b, and the rest of the 29 remained as pT2. Regarding the 35 HCCs classified as pT1, using 7th edition, all of them were restaged as pT1a. Compared to the 7th staging system, using the 8th edition of AJCC manual, the percentage of pT2 tumors significantly decreased, from 59.77 to 33.33%. The patient's gender, age, tumor focality, and grade of differentiation did not prove to have any prognostic value. Regarding pT stage, it does not influence the overall survival rate, independently from the used staging system.

CONCLUSION

The staging criteria, in the most recent edition of AJCC, are simplified and allowed tumor understaging. These changes do not have independent prognostic value. The prognostic impact of pT understaging should be evaluated in larger cohorts.

A practical nomogram and risk stratification system predicting the cancer-specific survival for patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Our purpose was to establish and validate a nomogram model in early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS).

METHODS

We extracted eligible data of relevant patients between 2010 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Further, we divided all patients into two groups (training and validation cohorts) at random (7:3). Nomogram was established using effective risk factors based on univariate and multivariate analysis. The effective performance of nomogram was evaluated using concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA), and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC).

RESULTS

We selected 3620 patients with early HCC including the training cohort (70%, 2536) and the validation cohort (30%, 1084). The nomogram-related C-indexes were 0.755 (95% CI: 0.739-0.771) and 0.737 (95% CI: 0.712-0.762), in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration plots showed good consistency of 3-and 5-year CSS between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction. The 3-, 5-year DCA curves also indicated that the nomogram has excellent clinical utility. The 3-, 5-year area under curve (AUC) of ROC in the training cohort were 0.783, 0.779, respectively, and 0.767, 0.766 in the validation cohort, respectively. With the establishment of nomogram, a risk stratification system was also established that could divide all patients into three risk groups, and the CSS in different groups (i.e., low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk) had a good regional division.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a practical nomogram in early HCC patients for predicting the CSS, and a risk stratification system follow arisen, which provided an applicable tool for clinical management.

Clinical predictors of small solitary hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma microinvasion

BACKGROUND

Microinvasion serves as a reliable indicator of poor prognosis after hepatectomy or transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, microinvasion is difficult to detect with current imaging modalities and is usually diagnosed histopathologically. The aim of this study is to identify the preoperative clinical predictors of microinvasion of small solitary hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC.

METHODS

From January 2000 to December 2009, 110 patients with HBV-related small primary solitary HCC (tumour diameter ≤3.0 cm) who underwent hepatectomy at Chinese PLA General Hospital were enrolled. The independent predictors of microinvasion, such as microvascular invasion and microscopic satellite nodules, were analysed. The prognosis of patients with microinvasion was compared with that of patients without microinvasion.

RESULTS

Of the 110 patients, 31 (28.2%) exhibited microinvasion. Among them, 16 (51.6%) had microvascular invasion with microscopic satellite nodules, five (16.1%) had microscopic satellite nodules without microvascular invasion and 10 (32.3%) had microvascular invasion without microscopic satellite nodules. Two independent predictors of microinvasion were identified: serum alpha-fetoprotein >20 ng/mL and a viral load of >10⁴ copies/mL. Patients without microinvasion exhibited a significantly better prognostic outcome compared with those with microinvasion.

CONCLUSION

Regarding HBV-related small HCC, patients presenting with alpha-fetoprotein levels >20 ng/mL and a high viral load (HBV-DNA >104 copies/mL) are at substantial risk for microinvasion.

A Simple-to-Use Nomogram for Predicting the Survival of Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Objective: This study aimed to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing a preoperative consultation and doctors conducting a postoperative evaluation.

Methods: A total of 2,225 HCC patients confirmed with stage I or II were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between January 2010 and December 2015. The patients were randomly divided into two groups: a training group (n = 1,557) and a validation group (n = 668). Univariate and multivariate hazards regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to select variables for the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was validated concerning its ability of discrimination and calibration and its clinical utility.

Results: Age, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), race, the degree of differentiation, and therapy method were significantly associated with the prognosis of early HCC patients. Based on the AIC results, five variables (age, race, AFP, degree of differentiation, and therapy method) were incorporated into the nomogram. The concordance indexes of the simple nomogram in the training and validation groups were 0.707 (95% CI: 0.683–0.731) and 0.733 (95% CI: 0.699–0.767), respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the nomogram in the training and validation groups were 0.744 and 0.764, respectively, for predicting 3-year survival, and 0.786 and 0.794, respectively, for predicting 5-year survival. Calibration plots showed good consistency between the predictions of the nomogram and the actual observations in both the training and validation groups. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the simple nomogram was clinically useful, and the overall survival significantly differed between low- and high-risk groups divided by the median score of the nomogram in the training group (P < 0.001).

Conclusion: A simple-to-use nomogram based on a large population-based study is developed and validated, which is a conventional tool for doctors to facilitate the individual consultation of preoperative patients and the postoperative personalized evaluation.

Staging systems of hepatocellular carcinoma: A review

Staging of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is necessary for guiding prognostication, management, and research purposes that further aid in the improvement of existing clinical and epidemiological health services. Though there are some new staging systems for HCC developed in different parts of the world, there is no globally accepted staging system that allows for comparison of current management protocols among heterogeneous populations. In this review, we discuss the evolution and applicability in clinical practice of different clinical staging systems of HCC-Okuda, CLIP (Cancer of the Liver Italian Program) score, MESIAH (Model to Estimate Survival In Ambulatory HCC patients) score, ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) score, BCLC (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer) staging, HKLC (Hong Kong Liver Cancer) staging, and the Alberta algorithm. This review aims to highlight the main criteria for assessing the prognosis of HCC that these different staging systems take into account, their strengths and limitations for use in modern clinical practice. Despite the limitations of the BCLC staging system, it remains the most validated and reliable system for prognostication. However, there is a need to update the BCLC staging system to include recent data on locoregional and systemic therapies for HCC, expanded criteria for transplantation, and systemic therapy for hepatitis C infection.

Radiofrequency ablation versus surgical resection for multiple HCCs meeting the Milan criteria: propensity score analyses of 10-year therapeutic outcomes

AIM

To assess the long-term therapeutic outcomes of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) versus surgical resection (SR) as a first-line treatment for patients meeting the Milan criteria with multiple hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board and the requirement for informed consent was waived. Between January 2004 and December 2009, among 3,441 patients with treatment-naive HCCs, 88 patients meeting the Milan criteria with multiple HCCs (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer [BCLC] A stage) who underwent either RFA (n=62) or SR (n=26) were included. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were compared by using propensity score matching. In addition, multivariate analysis was performed for assess the prognostic factor.

RESULTS

Matching yielded 20 matched pairs of patients. In the two matched groups, the RFS rates were 30% and 30% at 5- and 10-years, respectively, in the RFA group and 60% and 48.6% in the SR group (p=0.054). The corresponding OS rates were 63.3% and 46.1% in the RFA group and 100% and 73.6% in the SR group, respectively (p=0.061). In multivariate analysis, treatment type was independently associated with RFS (hazard ratio [HR]=0.51; p=0.043) whereas it was not a statistically significant factor for OS (HR=0.50; p=0.088).

CONCLUSION

In patients meeting the Milan criteria with multiple HCCs (BCLC A stage), SR may provide better RFS compared to RFA.

Targeted therapy and personalized medicine in hepatocellular carcinoma: drug resistance, mechanisms, and treatment strategies

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is characterized by a growing number of new cases diagnosed each year that is nearly equal to the number of deaths from this cancer. In a majority of the cases, HCC is associated with the underlying chronic liver disease, and it is diagnosed in advanced stage of disease when curative treatment options are not applicable. Sorafenib is a treatment of choice for patients with performance status 1 or 2 and/or macrovascular invasion or extrahepatic spread, and regorafenib is the only systemic treatment found to provide survival benefit in HCC patients progressing on sorafenib treatment. Other drugs tested in different trials failed to demonstrate any benefit. Disappointing results of numerous trials testing the efficacy of various drugs indicate that HCC has low sensitivity to chemotherapy that is in great part caused by multidrug resistance. Immunotherapy for HCC is a new challenging treatment option and involves immune checkpoint inhibitors/antibody-based therapy and peptide-based vaccines. Another challenging approach is microRNA-based therapy that involves two strategies. The first aims to inhibit oncogenic miRNAs by using miRNA antagonists and the second strategy is miRNA replacement, which involves the reintroduction of a tumor-suppressor miRNA mimetic to restore a loss of function.

Validation of The Hong Kong Liver Cancer Staging System in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Curative Intent Treatment

Backgrounds:

Recently Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) staging system has been proposed for staging of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and has been shown to provide better prognostic ability than the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system. However, the HKLC system lacks external validation, and its applicability remains uncertain. The present study was aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of HKLC in HCC patients treated with curative intent.

Methods:

Medical records of HCC patients treated with either resection or radiofrequency ablation (RFA) from 2011 to 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. The overall survival and the prognostic ability of the HKLC and BCLC system were evaluated.

Results:

79 HCC patients were included, of which 64.56% had Child A cirrhosis. Chronic viral hepatitis B infection was the leading cause of HCC, followed by chronic viral hepatitis C infection, alcohol and alcohol with HBV or HCV infection. According to the BCLC system, 82.28% were in stage 0-A, and according to the HKLC system, 93.67% were in stage I-IIb. RFA and liver resection were the primary treatment in 56.96% and 43.04%, respectively. The 5-year survival rate of patients in HKLC stage I, IIa and IIb were 81.64%, 61.66%, and 54.42%, respectively (P<0.001). Whereas, the 5-year survival rate of patients in BCLC stage 0, A and B were 60.00%, 75.90%, and 26.65%, respectively (P=0.053). The AUROC curve of the HKLC and BCLC for the entire cohort was 0.77 and 0.64, respectively (P=0.15). Subgroup analysis showed the AUROC curve of the HKLC and BCLC for the patients with viral-associated HCC was 0.79 and 0.68, respectively (P=0.02).

Conclusions:

Applying the HKLC staging system provides a good discriminative ability for survival prediction in HCC patients treated with curative intent. Comparing with the BCLC system, the HKLC system tends to yield better prognostic accuracy, particularly in viral-associated HCC.

Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer outperforms Hong Kong Liver Cancer staging of hepatocellular carcinoma in multiethnic Asians: Real-world perspective

AIM

To compare the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) and Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) classification systems when applied to HCC patients from the largest tertiary-level centre in Singapore.

METHODS

One thousand two hundred and seventy hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients prospectively enrolled in a tertiary-level centre registry in Singapore since 1988 were studied. Patients were grouped into their respective BCLC and HKLC stages. Data such as demography, aetiology of HCC and type of treatment were collected. Survival data was based on census with the National Registry of Births and Deaths on 31^st October 2015. Statistical analyses were done using SPSS version 21 (Chicago, IL, United States). Survival analyses were done by the Kaplan-Meier method. Differences in survival rates were compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

The median age at presentation was 63 years (range 13-94); male 82.4%; Chinese 89.4%, Malay 7.1%, Indian, 2.8%. Hepatitis B was the predominant aetiology (75.0%; Hepatitis C 7.2%, Hepatitis B and C co-infection 3.8%, non-viral 14.0%). Both BCLC and HKLC staging systems showed good separation with overall log rank test confirming significant survival differences between stages in our cohort (P < 0.001). 206 out of the 240 patients (85.8%) assigned for curative treatment by the BCLC treatment algorithm received curative therapy for HCC [Stage 0 93.2% (68/73); Stage A 82.6% (138/167)]. In contrast, only 341/558 (61.1%) patients received curative treatment despite being assigned for curative treatment by the HKLC treatment algorithm [Stage I 72.7% (264/363); Stage II 40.2% (66/164); Stage Va 35.5% (11/31)]. Patients who were assigned to curative treatment by HKLC but did not receive curative treatment had significantly poorer ECOG (P < 0.001), higher Child-Pugh status (P < 0.001) and were older (median age 66 vs 61, P < 0.001) than those who received curative therapy. Median overall survival in patients assigned to curative treatment groups by BCLC and HKLC were 6.1 and 2.6 years respectively (P < 0.001). When only patients receiving curative treatment were analyzed, BCLC still predicted overall median survival better than HKLC (7.1 years vs 5.5 years, P = 0.037).

CONCLUSION

BCLC performs better than HKLC in our multiethnic Asian population in allocating patients to curative treatment in a real-life situation as well as in predicting survival.

The recommended treatment algorithms of the BCLC and HKLC staging systems: does following these always improve survival rates for HCC patients?

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Several staging systems have been proposed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Among them, only the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) and Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) staging systems also recommend treatment modality. This study was designed to see whether BCLC and HKLC staging can guide treatment strategy, so analyzed whether patients survival is better for those who received recommended therapy by each staging system.

METHODS

A total of 3515 treatment-naïve, newly diagnosed HCC patients at a single centre were analyzed.

RESULTS

Five-year survival rates according to BCLC stages: 0 = 79.1%, A = 62.9%, B = 40.3%, C = 21.3% and D = 27.0%; 5-year survival rates according to HKLC stages: I = 72.3%, IIa = 54.9%, IIb = 50.6%, IIIa = 21.3%, IIIb = 10.2%, IVa = 16.7%, IVb = 7.2%, Va = 47.1% and Vb = 11.3%. The C-indices of the BCLC and HKLC staging systems were 0.708 and 0.732 respectively. Patient survival was better when patients received the recommended treatment in stages 0 or A; survival was worse if treatment began at stage B, C or D. For HKLC staging system, survival was better when patients received the recommended treatment in stages I, IIa, IIb, IIIa or Va but was worse when treatment began in stages IIIb, IVa, IVb or Vb.

CONCLUSION

Both the BCLC and HKLC staging systems effectively stratified patient prognosis, but neither could direct therapy for a large proportion of patients; for some stages, recommended therapy was associated with worse prognosis.

Liver resection for intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors in China. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system is regarded as the gold standard staging system for HCC, classifying HCC as early, intermediate, or advanced. For intermediate HCC, trans-catheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) is recommended as the optimal strategy by the BCLC guideline. This review investigates whether liver resection is better than TACE for intermediate HCC. Based on published studies, we compare the survival benefits and complications of liver resection and TACE for intermediate HCC. We also compare the survival benefits of liver resection in early and intermediate HCC. We find that liver resection can achieve better or at least comparable survival outcomes compared with TACE for intermediate HCC; however, we do not observe a significant difference between liver resection and TACE in terms of safety and morbidity. We conclude that liver resection may improve the short- and long-term survival of carefully selected intermediate HCC patients, and the procedure may be safely performed in the management of intermediate HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma: From clinical practice to evidence-based treatment protocols

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the major malignant diseases in many healthcare systems. The growing number of new cases diagnosed each year is nearly equal to the number of deaths from this cancer. Worldwide, HCC is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths, as it is the fifth most common cancer and the third most important cause of cancer related death in men. Among various risk factors the two are prevailing: viral hepatitis, namely chronic hepatitis C virus is a well-established risk factor contributing to the rising incidence of HCC. The epidemic of obesity and the metabolic syndrome, not only in the United States but also in Asia, tend to become the leading cause of the long-term rise in the HCC incidence. Today, the diagnosis of HCC is established within the national surveillance programs in developed countries while the diagnosis of symptomatic, advanced stage disease still remains the characteristic of underdeveloped countries. Although many different staging systems have been developed and evaluated the Barcelona-Clinic Liver Cancer staging system has emerged as the most useful to guide HCC treatment. Treatment allocation should be decided by a multidisciplinary board involving hepatologists, pathologists, radiologists, liver surgeons and oncologists guided by personalized -based medicine. This approach is important not only to balance between different oncologic treatments strategies but also due to the complexity of the disease (chronic liver disease and the cancer) and due to the large number of potentially efficient therapies. Careful patient selection and a tailored treatment modality for every patient, either potentially curative (surgical treatment and tumor ablation) or palliative (transarterial therapy, radioembolization and medical treatment, i.e., sorafenib) is mandatory to achieve the best treatment outcome.

Ascites and alpha-fetoprotein improve prognostic performance of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging

AIM: To assess how ascites and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) added to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging predict hepatocellular carcinoma survival.

METHODS: The presence of underlying cirrhosis, ascites and encephalopathy, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, the number of nodules, and the maximum diameter of the largest nodule were determined at diagnosis for 1060 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma at a tertiary referral center for liver disease in Egypt. Demographic information, etiology of liver disease, and biochemical data (including serum bilirubin, albumin, international normalized ratio, alanine and aspartate aminotransferases, and AFP) were evaluated. Staging of the tumor was determined at the time of diagnosis using the BCLC staging system; 496 patients were stage A and 564 patients were stage B. Patients with mild ascites on initial ultrasound, computed tomography, or clinical examination, and who had a CTP score ≤ 9 were included in this analysis. All patients received therapy according to the recommended treatment based on the BCLC stage, and were monitored from the time of diagnosis to the date of death or date of data collection. The effect of the presence of ascites and AFP level on survival was analyzed.

RESULTS: At the time the data were censored, 123/496 (24.8%) and 218/564 (38.6%) patients with BCLC stages A and B, respectively, had died. Overall mean survival of the BCLC A and B patients during a three-year follow-up period was 31 mo [95% confidence interval (95%CI): 29.7-32.3] and 22.7 mo (95%CI: 20.7-24.8), respectively. The presence of ascites, multiple focal lesions, large tumor size, AFP level and CTP score were independent predictors of survival for the included patients on multivariate analysis (P < 0.001). Among stage A patients, 18% had ascites, 33% had AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL, and 8% had both. Their median survival in the presence of ascites was shorter if AFP was ≥ 200 ng/mL (19 mo vs 24 mo), and in the absence of ascites, patients with AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL had a shorter survival (28 mo vs 39 mo). For stage B patients, survival for the corresponding groups was 12, 18, 19 and 22 mo. The one-, two-, and three-year survival rates for stage A patients without ascites and AFP < 200 ng/mL were 94%, 77%, and 71%, respectively, and for patients with ascites and AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL were 83%, 24%, and 22%, respectively (P < 0.001). Adding ascites and AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL improved the discriminatory ability for predicting prognosis (area under the curve, 0.618 vs 0.579 for BCLC, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: Adding AFP and ascites to the BCLC staging classification can improve prognosis prediction for early and intermediate stages of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma: Current status and future perspectives

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health concern worldwide and the third cause of cancer-related death. Despite advances in treatment as well as careful surveillance programs, the mortality rates in most countries are very high. In contrast to other cancers, the prognosis and treatment of HCC depend on the tumor burden in addition to patient’s underlying liver disease and liver functional reserve. Moreover, there is considerable geographic and institutional variation in both risk factors attributable to the underlying liver diseases and the management of HCC. Therefore, although many staging and/or scoring systems have been proposed, there is currently no globally accepted system for HCC due to the extreme heterogeneity of the disease. The aim of this review is to focus on currently available staging systems as well as those newly reported in the literatures since 2012. Moreover, we describe problems with currently available staging systems and attempts to modify and/or add variables to existing staging systems.