Using gridded multimedia model to simulate spatial fate of Benzo[α]pyrene on regional scale

Long-term spatiotemporal variation of benzo[a]pyrene in Japan: Significant decrease in ambient concentrations, human exposure, and health risk

Although Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) is considered carcinogenic to humans, the health effects of exposure to ambient levels have not been sufficiently investigated. This study estimated the long-term spatiotemporal variation of BaP in Japan over nearly two decades at a fine spatial resolution of 1 km. This study aimed to obtain an accurate spatiotemporal distribution of BaP that can be used in epidemiological studies on the health effects of ambient BaP exposure. The annual BaP concentrations were estimated using an ensemble machine learning approach using various predictors, including the concentrations and emission intensities of the criteria air pollutants, and meteorological, land use, and traffic-related variables. The model performance, evaluated by location-based cross-validation, exhibited satisfactory accuracy (R2 of 0.693). Densely populated areas showed higher BaP levels and greater temporal reduction, whereas BaP levels remained higher in some industrial areas. The population-weighted BaP in 2018 was 0.12 ng m-3, a decrease of approximately 70% from its 2000 value of 0.44 ng m-3, which was also reflected in the estimated excess number of lung cancer incidences. Accordingly, the proportion of BaP exposure below 0.12 ng m-3, which is the BaP concentration associated with an excess lifetime cancer risk of 10-5, reached 67% in 2018. Our estimates can be used in epidemiological studies to assess the health effects of BaP exposure at ambient concentrations.

Spatiotemporal distribution and inter-media transfer of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Shanghai, China: Historical patterns and future trends

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) represent pervasive pollutants, posing health risks in urban environments. It is essential to comprehend the spatiotemporal distributions, composition profiles, and inter-media transfer processes of PAHs in various environmental compartments, influenced by both natural changes and anthropogenic activities. This study integrates historical and future spatiotemporally changing environmental parameters, including climate data, GDP, population data, land-use types, and hydrological variables, into the Multimedia Urban Model (MUM). This integration enables the simulation of spatiotemporal distributions and inter-media transfer fluxes of PAHs among six different media from the 2010s to the 2100s under two distinct Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios in the megacity of Shanghai, China. The MUM model, featuring diverse gridded parameters, effectively captures PAH concentrations and movement across environmental compartments. Results indicate a decreasing trend in PAHs concentrations in the 2100s compared to the 2010s, with PAH concentrations in water, sediment, vegetation, and organic film covering impermeable surfaces under the SSP3-7.0 scenario higher than those of the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Low molecular weight PAHs dominate in the sediment, water, and air, whereas high molecular weight PAHs prevail in the organic film, vegetation, and soil. Sediment and soil serve as the predominant sinks for PAHs. The primary transport processes for PAH movement include air-film, air-soil, film-water, soil-air, and water-air. Almost all transfer fluxes exhibit a declining trend in future periods except for the air-film transport pathway. The principal input and removal routes for PAHs in Shanghai involve the advection of air and water. The study provides essential insights into the environmental behavior of PAHs and informs targeted pollution control in Shanghai. Additionally, it serves as a technical reference for similar pollution prediction research.

Effects of Chinese "double carbon strategy" on soil polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons pollution

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and carbon dioxide primarily originate from the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. The implementation of the Chinese "double carbon strategy" is expected to impact the distribution of PAH emissions, consequently influencing the spatial distribution trend of PAHs in surface soil. Therefore, it is crucial to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese "double carbon strategy" on soil PAH pollution for the purpose of "the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions". This study utilized 15,088 individual PAH concentration data from 943 soil samples collected between 2003 and 2020 in China, in conjunction with PAH emissions at a 10 km resolution, for meta-analysis. The calculated PAH emissions in this study are in line with the global PAH emission inventory (PKU-PAH-2007), with a relative standard deviation at the provincial level of less than 25 %. Subsequently, a novel method was developed using emission density and Kow of PAHs to predict PAH concentrations in surface soil based on a least-squares regression model. Compared to other environmental models, the method established in this study significantly reduced the percent sample deviation to less than 70 %. Furthermore, energy consumption data for China were simulated based on the implementation plan of the "double carbon strategy" to project PAH emissions and soil PAH levels for the years 2030 and 2060. The predicted PAH emissions in China were estimated to decrease to 41,300 t in 2030 and 10,406.5 t in 2060 from 78,815 t in 2020. Moreover, the heavily contaminated areas of soil PAHs (i.e., total PAH concentrations in soil exceeding 1000 μg kg-1) were projected to decrease by 45 % and 82 % in 2030 and 2060, respectively, compared to levels in 2020. These findings suggest that the implementation of the "double carbon strategy" can fundamentally reduce the pollution of PAHs in surface soil of China.

Environmental fate and health risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration during the 21st century

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution and behavior of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the context of climate change and human activities is essential for effective environmental management and public health protection. This study utilized an integrated simulation system that combines land-use, hydrological, and multimedia fugacity models to predict the concentrations, transportation, and degradation of 16 priority-controlled PAHs across six environmental compartments (air, water, soil, sediment, vegetation, and impermeable surfaces) within one of the world's prominent urban agglomerations, the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), under future Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP)-Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Incremental lifetime carcinogenic risk for adults and children exposed to PAHs were also evaluated. The results show a declining trend in PAHs concentrations and associated health risks during the 21st century. Land use types, hydrological characteristics, population, and GDP, have significant correlations with the fate of PAHs. The primary removal for PAHs is determined to be driven by advection through air and water. PAHs covering on impermeable surfaces pose a relatively higher health risk compared to those in other environmental media. This study offers valuable insights into PAHs pollution in the YRDUA, aiming to ensure public health safety, with the potential for application in other urban areas.

The past 40 years' assessment of urban-rural differences in Benzo[a]pyrene contamination and human health risk in coastal China

China has implemented many environmental regulations to battle against polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) contamination since the 1990s. It remains unclear how the exposure levels of PAHs changed quantitatively since reform and opening up in 1978 in China, whether the human health risks decreased or not, and how about the discrepancy between urban and rural areas. Here, taking Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) in the rapidly urbanized Bohai region of China as a case, we used the improved Berkeley-Trent-Urban-Rural model to simulate the multimedia concentrations of BaP from 1980 to 2020 based on BaP emissions at a regional scale. The total emission of BaP in 1990 was the highest, with a value of 240 t, while the urban emission peaked in 2010. The BaP emissions from rural areas were two to seven times higher than urban areas, and the differences became smaller over time. Despite this, the average modeled BaP concentrations in urban air and soil were two to tens fold higher than in rural areas, particularly in highly urbanized or industrialized cities. Mostly, the concentrations of BaP in rural areas peaked in 1990, while those in urban areas peaked in 1990 or 2010. Early urbanized Beijing and Tianjin were the hot-spot cities of BaP contamination before 2000, while after 2010, higher concentrations were found in late industrialized Shandong and Hebei. BaP posed potential cancer risks to local residents, and air inhalation accounted for more than 80 % of the total risk. Under the stronger implementation of environmental regulations since the 1990s, it showed great health benefits, particularly for the urban residents in Beijing and Tianjin. The biggest decline in cancer risk was found in the period 2010-2020, and the average decreasing rates were 61.4 % and 57.4 % for urban and rural areas, respectively.

The Solent Strait: Water quality trends within a heavily trafficked marine environment, 2000 to 2020

This study presents an important long-term historical analysis of water quality in an internationally crucial waterway (the Solent, Hampshire, UK), in the context of increasing adoption of open-loop Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems by shipping. The pollutants studied were acidification (pH), zinc, and benzo [a] pyrene, alongside temperature. We compared baseline sites to locations likely to be impacted by pollution. The Solent's average water temperature is slightly increasing, with temperatures at wastewater sites significantly higher. Acidification suggests a complex story, with a highly significant small overall increase in pH during the study period but significantly different values at wastewater and port sites. Zn concentrations have significantly reduced but increased in enclosed waters such as marinas. BaP showed no long-term trend with values at marinas significantly and consistently higher. The findings provide valuable long-term background data and insights that can feed into the upcoming review of the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive and ongoing discussions about the regulation of, and future monitoring and management strategies for coastal/marine waterways.

Risk Control Values and Remediation Goals for Benzo[a]pyrene in Contaminated Sites: Sectoral Characteristics, Temporal Trends, and Empirical Implications

Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) is a highly carcinogenic pollutant of global concern. There is a need for a comprehensive assessment of regulation decisions for BaP-contaminated site management. Herein, we present a quantitative evaluation of remediation decisions from 206 contaminated sites throughout China between 2011 and 2021 using the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and related statistical methodologies. Generally, remediation decisions seek to establish remediation goals (RGs) based on the risk control values (RCVs). Cumulative frequency distributions, followed non-normal S-curve, emerged multiple nonrandom clusters. These clusters are consistent with regulatory guidance values (RGVs), of national and local soil levels in China. Additionally, priority interventions for contaminated sites were determined by prioritizing RCVs and identifying differences across industrial sectors. Notably, we found that RCVs and RGs became more relaxed over time, effectively reducing conservation and unsustainable social and economic impacts. The joint probability curve was applied to model decision values, which afforded a generic empirically important RG of 0.57 mg/kg. Overall, these findings will help decision-makers and governments develop appropriate remediation strategies for BaP as a ubiquitous priority pollutant.

Fate of phthalates in a river receiving wastewater treatment plant effluent based on a multimedia model

Phthalic acid esters (PAEs) can enter environment media by secondary effluent discharge from wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) into receiving rivers, thus posing a threat to ecosystem health. A level III fugacity model was established to simulate the fate and transfer of four PAEs in a study area in Tianjin, China, and to evaluate the influence of WWTP discharge on PAEs levels in the receiving river. The results show that the logarithmic residuals of most simulated and measured values of PAEs are within one order of magnitude with a good agreement. PAEs in the study area were mainly distributed in soil and sediment phases, which accounted for 84.66%, 50.26%, 71.96% and 99.09% for dimethyl phthalate (DMP), diethyl phthalate (DEP), dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), respectively. The upstream advection accounted for 77.90%, 93.20%, 90.21% and 90.93% of the total source of DMP, DEP, DBP and DEHP in the river water, respectively, while the contribution of secondary effluent discharge was much lower. Sensitivity analysis shows that emission and inflow parameters have greater influences on the multimedia distributions of PAEs than physicochemical and environmental parameters. Monte Carlo analysis quantifies the uncertainties and verifies the reliability of the simulation results.

An improved method to predict polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in surface freshwater by reducing the input parameters

Predicting the concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface freshwater are critical for understanding their spatio-temporal distribution, regulation effectiveness, and the subsequent health risks. In this study, by exploring the correlation of PAHs concentrations in surface freshwater (C_PAHs) in China reported in the past twenty years with their emission (E_PAHs), a novel relationship of C_PAHs with E_PAHs and PAHs properties (i.e., logK_ow and S_w) was established. For PAHs individual, percent sample deviation between the measured concentrations and the calculated concentrations are in the range of 18% to 48%, suggesting that the calculated concentrations of PAHs are well consistent with the measured PAHs concentration in surface freshwater. Moreover, spatial distribution of predicted PAHs concentrations in surface freshwater of China is also matched well with measured ones. Compared with other environmental models, the established relationships in this work can reduce the number of model parameters from dozens to three, as well as decrease percent sample deviation from several orders of magnitude to less than 50%. The established relationship of PAHs concentrations in surface freshwater with E_PAHs, S_w, and logK_ow of PAHs, are valuable to facilitate the prediction of PAHs concentrations in surface freshwater by reducing monitoring costs.

A regional numerical environmental multimedia modeling approach to assess spatial Eco-Environmental exposure risk of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) in the Pearl river basin

This paper presents a novel numerical environmental multimedia modeling system (RNEMM) for assessing the environmental fate of emerging organic contaminants and their relative health risk at a regional scale. The RNEMM is developed based on an integrated numerical algorithm that comprises four sub-models: a river network simulation module, a gaseous phase simulation module, a mass balance based simulation module for soil compartment, and a food web analysis module. This RNEMM has been applied to simulate the spatial distribution of PFOS and assess the consequent health risks for a central water basin region of the Pearl River in China. The study region includes the urban areas of Guangzhou, Foshan, and Dongguan Cities with emission sources of PFOS, which was detected in local water, sediments, and air environment. The spatial concentration distributions of PFOS in water, sediment, air, soil, and various fish species are examined based on RNEMM and compared with the measured data. With a focus on water environment, it shows that the simulated results essentially agree well with measured concentrations. Comparing the simulated results and the measured data collected in 2013, the relative errors are mostly less than 40 % in the surface water and sediment zones for this regional scale field study. Whereas the relative error in the atmosphere zone is less than 5%. In addition, the health risk assessment for children and adults is conducted based on the RNEMM approach. The hazard quotient (HQ) values for the 95th percentile in most subareas of the study region are higher than 0.1, showing a low-risk level for the study period. The results indicate that the RNEMM is a useful modeling tool to manage the environmental and health risks associated with emerging contaminants on regional air, water, soil, and ecosystem at an adequate spatial-temporal resolution.

Spatially resolved environmental fate models: A review

Spatially resolved environmental models are important tools to introduce and highlight the spatial variability of the real world into modeling. Although various spatial models have been developed so far, yet the development and evaluation of these models remain a challenging task due to several difficulties related to model setup, computational cost, and obtaining high-resolution input data (e.g., monitoring and emission data). For example, atmospheric transport models can be used when high resolution predicted concentrations in atmospheric compartments are required, while spatial multimedia fate models may be preferred for regulatory risk assessment, life cycle impact assessment of chemicals, or when the partitioning of chemical substances in a multimedia environment is considered. The goal of this paper is to review and compare different spatially resolved environmental models, according to their spatial, temporal and chemical domains, with a closer insight into spatial multimedia fate models, to achieve a better understanding of their strengths and limitations. This review also points out several requirements for further improvement of existing models as well as for their integration.

Contemporary Research Progress on the Detection of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a class of the most common and widespread contaminants. The accumulation of PAHs has made a certain impact on the environment and is seriously threatening human health. Numerous general analytical methods suitable for PAHs were developed. With the development of economy, the environmental problems of PAHs in modern society are more extensive and prominent, and attract more attention from environmental scientists and analysts. Deeper understanding of the properties of PAHs depends on the advent of detection methods, which can also be more conducive to promoting the protection of the environment. Till now, more sensitive, more high-speed and more high-throughput analytical tools are being invented and have played important roles in the research of PAHs. In this short review article, we focused mainly on the contemporary analytical methods about PAHs. We started with a brief review on the hazards, migration, distribution and traditional analysis methods of PAHs in recent years, including liquid chromatography, gas chromatography, surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy and so on. We also presented the applications of the modern ambient mass spectrometry, especially microwave plasma torch mass spectrometry, in the detection of PAHs, as well as the far out novel results in our lab by using microwave plasma torch (MPT) mass spectrometry; for example, some new insights about Birch reduction, regular hydrogen addition and the robustness of molecular structure. These studies have demonstrated the versatility of MPT MS as a platform in the research of PAHs.

Seasonal variability in multimedia transport and fate of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) affected by climatic factors

The impact of meteorological factors on the transport behavior and distribution of volatile and semi-volatile organic pollutants has become an area of increasing concern. Here, we analyzed seasonal variation in climatic variables including wind, temperature, and precipitation to quantitatively assess the impact of these factors on the multimedia transport and fate of BaP in the continental region of China using a Berkeley-Trent (BETR) model. The advective rates of air exhibited an increasing trend of autumn (1.830 mol/h) < summer (1.975 mol/h) < winter (2.053 mol/h) < spring (2.405 mol/h) in association with increasing wind speed, indicating that lower atmospheric BaP concentrations are present in regions with high wind speeds and advective rates. The air-soil transport rates (0.08-45.55 mol/h) in winter were higher than in summer (0.07-32.41 mol/h), while low winter temperatures accelerate BaP accumulation in terrestrial ecosystems due to cold deposition. Cold deposition effects were more evident in northern regions than in southern regions. Further, increasing precipitation enhanced air-soil and soil-freshwater transport rates with the correlation coefficients of r = 0.445 and r = 0.598 respectively, while decreasing the air-vegetation transport rates (r = 0.475), thereby contributing to the accumulation of BaP in soils and freshwaters. In the light of the potential dispersion of BaP pollution at regional and global scales affected by these key climatic factors, this indirectly indicated the impact of future climate change on the BaP transport. Thus, flexible policy interventions should be enacted to slow future climate change.

Presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons among multi-media in a typical constructed wetland located in the coastal industrial zone, Tianjin, China: Occurrence characteristics, source apportionment and model simulation

In-depth understanding and accurately predicting the occurrence and fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in constructed wetlands (CWs) is extremely crucial for optimizing the CWs construction and strengthening the risk control. However, few studies have focused on the PAHs among sediment-water-plant and model simulation in CWs. In this study, sediment, surface water and reed samples were gathered and analyzed from a typical CW. The concentrations of 16 PAHs (Σ₁₆PAHs) in sediments, surface water and reeds ranged from 620 to 4277 μg/kg, 114 to 443 ng/L and 74.5 to 362 μg/kg, respectively. The coefficients of variation (CV) were calculated as 0.796, 0.431 and 0.473 for the above three media respectively, indicating that the spatial distribution variation was medium intensity. The fugacity fraction (ff) suggested that sediments might act as the secondary release source of most PAHs. According to the diagnostic ratios and principal component analysis-multiple linear regression (PCA-MLR), PAHs in this CW mainly come from fossil fuels combustion and petroleum leakage. PAHs in sediments showed high ecological risk at water inlet and moderate risk at the other functional zones, while low risks for surface water at all functional zones. Although the human health risk assessment indicated relatively low cancer risk, the health risk still cannot be ignored with the continuous input and accumulation of exogenous PAHs. A mathematical model covering the hydraulics parameters and composition characteristics of the wetland was established, and its reliability was verified. The simulated results obtained by the established model were basically consistent with the measured values. In addition, the total remove efficiency of PAHs in surface water was 40.2%, which calculated by the simulated model. This work provides helpful insight into the comprehension of occurrence and fate of PAHs among multi-media in CWs.

Source emissions and climate change impacts on the multimedia transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants, Chaohu watershed, eastern China

Emission intensity and climate change control the transport flux and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in multiple environmental compartments. This study applied a multimedia model (BETR model) to explore alternations in the spatio-temporal trends of concentrations and transport flux of benzopyrene (BaP), phenanthrene (Phe), perfluorooctane sulfonates (PFOS) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the Chaohu watershed, located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China in response to changes in source emissions and climate. The potential historic and future risks of these pollutants also were assessed. The results suggest that current trends in concentrations and transport were similar to that of their emissions between 2005 and 2018. During the next 100 years, temporal trends and spatial patterns were not predicted to change significantly, which is consistent with climate change. Based on sensitivity and correlation analyses, climate change had significant effects on multi-media concentrations and transport fluxes of BaP, Phe, PFOS and PCBs, and rainfall intensity was the predominant controlling factor. Risk quotients (RQs) of BaP and Phe-in soil increased from 0.42 to 0.95 and 0.06 to 0.35, respectively, from 2005 to 2090, indicating potential risks. The RQs of the other examined contaminants exhibited little potential risk in soil, water, or sediment. Based on spatial patterns, it was inferred that the ecosystem around Lake Chaohu is the most at risk. The study provides insights needed for local pollution control of POPs in the Chaohu watershed. In addition, the developed approach can be applied to other watersheds world-wide.

Inter-regional multimedia fate analysis of PAHs and potential risk assessment by integrating deep learning and climate change scenarios

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are hazardous compounds associated with respiratory disease and lung cancer. Increasing fossil fuel consumption, which causes climate change, has accelerated the emissions of PAHs. However, potential risks by PAHs have not been predicted for Korea, and appropriate PAH regulations under climate change have yet to be developed. This study assesses the potential risks posed by PAHs using climate change scenarios based on deep learning, and a multimedia fugacity model was employed to describe the future fate of PAHs. The multimedia fugacity model describes the dynamics of sixteen PAHs by reflecting inter-regional meteorological transportation. A deep neural network predicts future environmental and economic conditions, and the potential risks posed by PAHs, in the year 2050, using a prediction model and climate change scenarios. The assessment indicates that cancer risks would increase by more than 50%, exceeding the lower risk threshold in the southern and western regions. A mix of strategies for developing PAH regulatory policies highlighted the necessity of increasing PAHs monitoring stations and controlling fossil fuel usage based on the domestic and global conditions under climate change scenarios.

Comparative analysis of contributions of wet deposition and photodegradation to the removal of atmospheric BaP by MFDCCA

Benzo [a] pyrene (BaP) in the atmosphere possess great carcinogenic potential to human health, and the understanding of its scavenging mechanisms has attracted considerable attention. In this work, a new quantitative method is proposed to make a comparative analysis of the long-term contributions of wet deposition and photodegradation to BaP removal based on multi-fractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MFDCCA). According to the precipitation and global solar radiation (GSR) observations from 1998 to 2016 for two urban sites (Central/Western District and TsuenWan) in Hong Kong, the wet deposition and photodegradation of BaP are analyzed. Using MFDCCA method, long-term cross-correlation between precipitation/GSR and BaP are investigated. Moreover, the differences of multifractal features in cross-correlations of precipitation-BaP and GSR-BaP system are analyzed. Strong long-term persistence is observed in the cross-correlations for precipitation-BaP system in a one-year cycle; while cross-correlations between GSR and BaP show weak persistence over the whole timescale. Based on the meteorology in Hong Kong, this difference has been discussed. Then, contributions of wet deposition and photodegradation to atmospheric BaP removal are quantified based on MFDCCA method, which are further compared between summer and winter. The comparative analysis suggests that wet deposition plays a more significant role in the removal of atmospheric BaP. Specifically, in summer, the contributions of wet deposition are twice as much as that of photodegradation for both two sites; while in winter, the contribution of photodegradation is a little higher than that of wet deposition to BaP removal. Meanwhile, for wet deposition, the contributions in summer are about ten times greater than that in winter; while for photodegradation, the difference in contributions between summer and winter are relatively smaller. Furthermore, based on sliding window technique, the temporal evolutions in the contributions of wet deposition/photodegradation to BaP removal have been presented for both two sites. On this basis, it is discovered that the comprehensive contributions of wet deposition and photodegradation peak in June, and reach their lowest levels in December for both two sites. Quantifying the contribution of meteorological factors to the removal of atmospheric BaP is help for understanding its geochemical cycle.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban soils of China: Distribution, influencing factors, health risk and regression prediction

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban soils are a risk to the health of residents. To predict those risks, the distribution and the factors influencing the concentration of PAHs were studied by collecting 1120 records of soil PAHs published during 2006-2017 from 26 cities. The mean concentrations of 16 PAHs (∑PAHs) in soil varied from 123 μg/kg to 5568 μg/kg, with a mean value of 1083 μg/kg, suggesting that a few cities were polluted. The distribution of ∑PAHs in the cities followed two gradients, namely from northern China through eastern China to southern China and from industrial cities through developed cities to cities that are main tourist attractions. The concentrations were significantly correlated to annual temperature, the efficiency of energy use, and to such measures of air quality as PM₁₀ and NO₂ concentrations. A regression equation developed to predict the concentration of ∑PAHs in soil and the corresponding health risks to residents of 35 major Chinese cities of China showed that the risks to adults and children were slight in most cities but those in a few industrial cities were of concern, and field investigations are recommended to assess the risk in greater detail. The method offers a useful tool for predicting such risks in other cities even when data on soils PAHs are not available.

Urban-rural gradients of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils at a regional scale: Quantification and prediction

The quantitative study of urban-rural gradients for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is extremely important to understand the behavior of POPs as well as for ecological risk assessment and management. In this study, a practical urban-rural gradient model (URGM) was developed using atmospheric point source diffusion combined with a fugacity approach to test potential mathematical relationships among urban and rural soils. The mean value of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for urban soils (0-2-km sites) was 570.80 ng/g, and was approximately 3.5 times higher than rural soils (30-50 km sites). Significant linear correlations were found between the amounts of PAHs in the surface soil and the city population and between the soil concentration and artificial surface area. Urban-rural PAH concentrations were simulated by the URGM and calibrated by city population and land-cover data, with average relative errors of 12.84%. The results showed that the URGM was suitable for simulating urban-rural PAH concentrations at a regional scale. The combustion of fossil fuels, biomass, and coal was the main source of soil PAHs in the study area, and the characteristic ratios of PAHs indicated a transition trend from pyrogenic to petrogenic sources along the urban-rural transects. This study thus provides a combined method for quantifying urban-rural gradients of PAHs and can thereby promote quantitative research on coupling among land cover, socio-economic data, and POP concentrations.

A review of multimedia transport and fate models for chemicals: Principles, features and applicability

The frequent use of chemicals has caused ecosystems and humans to be threatened due to their discharge into the environment. Multimedia environmental fate models could provide a comprehensive picture of transport behaviour and fate for organic chemicals in multiple environmental media. They have been designed and widely used for chemical risk assessment, chemical ranking and management support, and determination of chemical bioaccumulation. This study reviewed the principles, features and applicability of recent commonly used multimedia fate models from peer-reviewed literature. Fugacity-based and concentration-based models are now widely adopted for use in chemical fate evaluation, while they are more appropriate for volatile and semi-volatile chemicals. Or the fugacity-based models can use aquivalence equilibrium criterion to cations, anions and involatile chemicals. The MAMI and SESAMe models based on activity approach are applicable to neutral and ionizable molecules. However, interactions of ionic species with other water solutes are not taken into account in these models. Additionally, they could not directionally simulate how chemicals transported form one grid to another. Future attention should be focused on the reliability of transfer behaviour and fate of ionizable chemicals, as integrating the advantages of these two kinds of models into a reconstructed one may be a better choice. In a word, environmental multimedia models have been beneficial tools for chemical control and management, risk and effect estimation, and decision supporting.

A multimedia fugacity model to estimate the fate and transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a largely urbanized area, Shanghai, China

Increasing PAHs pollution is creating more complex urban pollution system. However, the availability of sufficient monitoring activities for PAHs in multicompartment and corresponding multi-interface migration processes is still not well understood. In this study, a Level III steady state fugacity model was validated to evaluate the detailed local variations, and mass fluxes of PAHs in various environmental compartments (i.e., air, soil, sediment, water, vegetation and organic film). This model was applied to a region of Shanghai in 2012 based on a large number of measured data and brings model predictions in 2020. The model results indicate that most of the simulated concentrations agreed with the observed values within one order of magnitude with a tendency of underestimation for vegetation. Direct emission is the main input pathway of PAHs entering the atmosphere, whereas advection is the main outward flow from Shanghai. Organic film was achieved the highest concentration of PAHs compared to other compartments up to 58.17 g/m³. The soil and sediment served as the greatest sinks of PAHs and have the longest retention time (2421.95-78642.09 h). Importantly, a decreasing trend of PAHs was observed in multimedia from 2012 to 2020 and the transfer flux from the air to vegetation to soil was the dominant pathways of BaP intermedia circulation processes. A sensitivity analysis showed that temperature was the most influential parameter, especially for Phe. A Monte Carlo simulation emphasized heavier PAHs were overpredicted in film and sediment, but lighter PAHs in air and water were generally underestimated.

Multimedia modeling of the PAH concentration and distribution in the Yangtze River Delta and human health risk assessment

Emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in China remain at a high level compared to those in developed countries. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is an economic and industrial center in China with an extremely large population. The potentially high emissions and excess cancer risk from human exposure in this region cannot be neglected. This study applied a multimedia model to estimate the concentrations of 16 US EPA priority PAHs in the environment in the YRD with a well-developed PAH-emission inventory for 2014. The model predicted that the average concentrations of ΣPAHs were 274 ng/m³ in the air, 255 ng/g in the soil, 15 ng/g in vegetation, 147 ng/L in freshwater and 144 ng/g in sediment, as well as 99 ng/L and 80 ng/g in seawater and sediment, respectively. Soil is the PAH sink in this region, and the net flux of the total PAHs is always from air to soil for each isomer. A deterministic assessment observed that the ELCR (excess lifetime cancer risk) ranged from 2.5 × 10^-6 to 3.0 × 10^-5 for exposure by air inhalation and from 3.5 × 10^-7 to 7.9 × 10^-6 for exposure by soil ingestion. The probabilistic results did not find any probability of ELCR >10^-4 by exposure via soil ingestion in the YRD. The probabilistic ELCR induced by inhalation exposure varied from 8.1 × 10^-7 to 3.1 × 10^-4 in the YRD. This study provided a comprehensive overview of PAHs occurrence in natural environments and of the relevant human health risks. The information presented in this study could help authorities to enact a strategy regarding emission reduction and pollution control relevant to PAHs.

CAPSULE

Multimedia modeling predicted distributions and compositions of PAHs in different environmental compartments, and deterministic and probabilistic ELCRs induced by air inhalation and soil ingestion were also provided.

Multimedia fate and transport simulation of perfluorooctanoic acid/ perfluorooctanoate in an urbanizing area

Strong global demand leads to significant production of fluoropolymers (FP) in China which potentially release large quantities of perfluorooctanoic acid/perfluorooctanoate (collectively called PFOA/PFO) to the environment. Modelling the fate and transport of PFOA/PFO provides an important input for human health risk assessment. Considering the effects of urbanization and existing forms of PFOA/PFO, this study used the modified multispecies Berkeley-Trent-Urban-Rural model to simulate the transfer behavior of PFOA/PFO in the Bohai Rim, China. Spatial distributions of PFOA/PFO emissions during the year 2012 for the study area were illustrated. About two thirds of the total amount of PFOA/PFO was estimated to be released into fresh water, and the total releases to rural areas were 160-fold higher than those to urban areas due to the location of fluorochemical industrial parks. The simulations predicted that hydrosphere was the fate of PFOA/PFO, followed by soil and vegetation, which was consistent with field data. The highest PFOA/PFO concentration was modeled in the Xiaoqing River basin with a value of 32.57 μg/L. The PFOA/PFO concentrations in urban soils were generally higher than those in rural soils except for grids 1, 3 and 46. In addition, it was estimated that the total flux of PFOA/PFO entering into the Bohai Sea was 24.57 ton/year, 100-fold higher than that of perfluorooctane sulfonates (PFOS).

Dynamic multimedia fate simulation of Perfluorooctane Sulfonate (PFOS) from 1981 to 2050 in the urbanizing Bohai Rim of China

Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and related substances are widely used in various industrial and commercial applications in China that ultimately discharge sufficient quantities of PFOS to the environment. It remains unclear how emissions of PFOS ultimately affect its concentrations as well as its fate in the environment. In this study, an improved Berkeley-Trent (BETR) multimedia model is developed to predict the PFOS levels with spatial and temporal distributions on unsteady state mode from 1981 to 2050, by taking the Bohai Rim of China as a case. The results showed that the modeled concentrations agreed well with the measured data. According to the model, PFOS concentrations in fresh water peaked in some months after the peak emission (2008 or 2009), whereas in urban soil the concentrations increased to peak slightly later (around 2014). Among the selected regions, Beijing and Tianjin were simulated with higher PFOS levels in the past and present because of their higher urbanization and industrialization since the 1980s, while in the future, Shandong and Liaoning are expected to have higher concentrations of PFOS than those in Beijing. The water system including coastal water, fresh water and sediment was the biggest sink for PFOS for coastal regions. Among the chemical inputs, direct primary emissions played a more important role, whereas for chemical removal processes, inter-regional advection and background outflow were the predominant pathways. The results would be useful to control the PFOS releases in China and will help the management agencies to implement the "Stockholm Convention" effectively.

Potential effects of changes in climate and emissions on distribution and fate of perfluorooctane sulfonate in the Bohai Rim, China

Climate change and emissions rates of contaminants are expected to affect distribution and fate of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in the environment, however, studies on these combined factors are rare. In this study, Perfluorooctane Sulfonate (PFOS) is used as an example to assess how those two factors synthetically affect fate and disposition of POPs in the Bohai Rim of China by using the Berkeley-Trent-Urban-Rural (BETR-Urban-Rural) model. We set up three climate change scenarios and four emission scenarios to conduct the simulations. The results show that climate change could have significant effects on the transport and fate of PFOS mainly including advection, inter-compartmental transfer under the "worst case" emission scenario. For most grids, a remarkable decrease in concentrations of PFOS are predicted for fresh water and urban soil in the future, with precipitation and temperature being predominant factors, whilst for coastal water and rural soil, an increasing trend is predicted. Additionally, predicted sum of sources to the Bohai Sea increases greater than removals from the Bohai Sea in the future, adding evidence that concentrations of PFOS in coastal water will increase more in the future. Under scenarios of reduced emissions and climate change, concentrations of PFOS in each compartment decreased more rapidly over time. We suggest that assessment of future climate change impacts on fate of PFOS could take emission reductions into consideration.

Developing a Black Carbon-Substituted Multimedia Model for Simulating the PAH Distributions in Urban Environments

A multimedia fugacity model with spatially resolved environmental phases at an urban scale was developed. In this model, the key parameter, organic matter, was replaced with black carbon (BC) and applied to simulate the distributions of phenanthrene (Phe), pyrene (Pyr) and benzo[α]pyrene (BaP) in Nanjing, China. Based on the estimated emissions and measured inflows of air and water, the Phe, Pyr and BaP concentrations in different environment media were calculated under steady-state assumptions. The original model (OC-Model), BC-inclusive model (dual C-Model) and improved model (BC-Model) were validated by comparing observed and predicted Phe, Pyr and BaP concentrations. Our results suggested that lighter polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were more affected by BC substitution than their heavier counterparts. We advocate the utilization of sorption with BC in future multimedia fate models for lighter PAHs based on the comparison of the calculated and observed values from measured and published sources. The spatial distributions of the Phe, Pyr and BaP concentrations in all phases were rationally mapped based on the calculated concentrations from the BC-Model, indicating that soil was the dominant sink of PAHs in terrestrial systems, while sediment was the dominant sink of PAHs in aquatic systems.

Development of a multimedia model (POPsLTEA) to assess the influence of climate change on the fate and transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in East Asia

A dynamic multimedia model (POPsLTEA) for an East Asia region was developed and evaluated to quantitatively assess how climate change (CC) alters the environmental fate and transport dynamics of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in air, water, soil, and sediment. To cover the entire model domain (25°N-50°N and 98°E-148°E) where China, Japan, and South and North Koreas are of primary concern, a total of 5000 main cells of 50km×50km size were used while 1008 cells of a finer spatial resolution (12.5km×12.5km) was nested for South Korea (33°N-38°N and 126°E-132°E). Most of the predicted concentrations agreed with the observed values within one order of magnitude with a tendency of overestimation for air and sediment. Prediction of the atmospheric concentration was statistically significant in both coincidence and association, suggesting the model's potential to successfully predict the fate and transport of the PAHs as influenced by CC. An example study of benzo(a)pyrene demonstrates that direction and strength of the CC influence on the pollution levels vary with the location and environmental media. As compared to the five year period of 2011 to 2015, the changes across the model domain in the annual geometric mean concentration over the years of 2021 through 2100 were predicted to range from 88% to 304%, from 84% to 109%, from 32% to 362%, and from 49% to 303%, in air, soil, surface water, and sea water, respectively, under the scenario of RCP8.5.

Distribution and risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in suburban and rural soils of Beijing with various land uses

We investigated the sources, distribution, and health risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils of peri-urban Beijing. The mean concentrations of total 16 PAHs in suburban and rural soils of Beijing were 321.8 ± 408.2 and 219.2 ± 233.5 ng/g, respectively. The PAH concentrations decreased along the urban-suburban-rural gradient and varied with land use categories. The industrial areas had the highest soil PAH concentrations followed by the living areas, roadsides, green areas, and agricultural areas. The major sources of PAHs in these soils were coal and biomass combustion. Traffic emission was not the dominant source of PAHs in peri-urban Beijing. At a few sites, high soil PAH contents were caused by point sources such as iron and steel plants and a wood preservative factory. The incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCRs) of adults and children exposed to PAHs in the soils were acceptable. However, cautions should be paid to the abandoned industrial sites, which might be converted to residential area during the urbanization process.

Urban and rural transport of semivolatile organic compounds at regional scale: A multimedia model approach

Urban areas are generally regarded as major sources of some semivolatile organic compounds and other persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the surrounding regions. Huge differences in contaminant emissions between urban and rural areas directly affect their fate in environmental media. Little is known about POPs behavior between urban and rural areas at a regional scale. A spatially resolved Berkeley-Trent-Urban-Rural Fate Model (BETR-UR) was designed by coupling land cover information to simulate the transport of POPs between urban and rural areas, and the Bohai Rim was used as a case study to estimate Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) fate. The processes of contaminant fate including emission, inter-compartmental transfer, advection and degradation in urban and rural areas were simulated in the model. Simulated PAH concentrations in environmental media of urban and rural areas were very close to measured values. The model accuracy was highly improved, with the average absolute relative error for PAH concentrations reduced from 37% to 3% compared with unimproved model results. PAH concentrations in urban soil and air were considerably higher than those in rural areas. Sensitivity analysis showed temperature was the most influential parameter for Phen rather than for Bap, whose fate was more influenced by emission rate, compartment dimension, transport velocity and chemical persistence. Uncertainty analysis indicated modeled results in urban media had higher uncertainty than those in rural areas due to larger variations of emissions in urban areas. The differences in urban and rural areas provided us with valuable guidance on policy setting for urban-rural POP control.

Environmental Distributions of Benzo[a]pyrene in China: Current and Future Emission Reduction Scenarios Explored Using a Spatially Explicit Multimedia Fate Model

SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction.

Exploring the fate, transport and risk of Perfluorooctane Sulfonate (PFOS) in a coastal region of China using a multimedia model

Perfluorooctane Sulfonate (PFOS) and related substances have been widely applied in both industrial processes and domestic products in China. Exploring the environmental fate and transport of PFOS using modeling methods provides an important link between emission and multimedia diffusion which forms a vital part in the human health risk assessment and chemical management for these substances. In this study, the gridded fugacity based BETR model was modified to make it more suitable to model transfer processes of PFOS in a coastal region, including changes to PFOS partition coefficients to reflect the influence of water salinity on its sorption behavior. The fate and transport of PFOS in the Bohai coastal region of China were simulated under steady state with the modified version of the model. Spatially distributed emissions of PFOS and related substances in 2010 were estimated and used in these simulations. Four different emission scenarios were investigated, in which a range of half-lives for PFOS related substances were considered. Concentrations of PFOS in air, vegetation, soil, fresh water, fresh water sediment and coastal water were derived from the model under the steady-state assumption. The median modeled PFOS concentrations in fresh water, fresh water sediment and soil were 7.20ng/L, 0.39ng/g and 0.21ng/g, respectively, under Emission Scenario 2 (which assumed all PFOS related substances immediately degrade to PFOS) for the whole region, while the maximum concentrations were 47.10ng/L, 4.98ng/g and 2.49ng/g, respectively. Measured concentration data for PFOS in the Bohai coastal region around the year of 2010 were collected from the literature. The reliability of the model results was evaluated by comparing the range of modeled concentrations with the measured data, which generally matched well for the main compartments. Fate and transfer fluxes were derived from the model based on the calculated inventory within the compartments, transfer fluxes between compartments and advection fluxes between sub-regions. It showed that soil and costal water were likely to be the most important sinks of PFOS in the Bohai costal region, in which more than 90% of PFOS was stored. Flows of fresh water were the driving force for spatial transport of PFOS in this region. Influences of the seasonal change of fresh water fluxes on the model results were also analyzed. When only seasonal changes of the fresh water flow rates were considered, concentrations of PFOS in winter and spring were predicted to be higher than that under annual average conditions, while the concentrations in summer and autumn were lower. For PFOS fluxes entering the sea, opposite conclusions were drawn compared to the concentrations. Environmental risks from the presence of PFOS in fresh water were assessed for this region through comparison with available water quality criteria values. The predicted concentrations of PFOS in the Bohai coastal region provided by the model were lower than the water quality criteria published by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Chinese researchers, while the concentrations in more than 80% of the sampling locations exceeded the European Union Water Framework Directive Environmental Quality Standards values. Seasonal variations of flow rate might cause a significant increase in environmental risks.

Development and evaluation of a dynamic multimedia model (ECORAME) for local scale assessment of aquatic ecological exposure to chemicals originating from sources in environmental media

Use of multimedia models (MMMs) has been limited in exposure assessment for aquatic ecosystems at local scale typically due to their coarse spatial resolution and inability to predict the individual concentrations of multiple streams within a watershed cell. An MMM named ECORAME is presented which overcomes the limitations by treating each water segment as an independent cell rather than a compartment within a watershed cell. This offers two advantages for exposure assessment, i.e., i) the spatial resolution for water is readily adjustable and ii) multiple water streams within one watershed cell could be handled individually. Model evaluation with respect to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) demonstrated that ECORAME's prediction of relative concentration agreed with measured values within a factor of five or less. A case study of PAHs using ECORAME shows that the concentration can change by more than 10 fold over the 40km main stream stretch of the Han River in Seoul, Korea. The concentration difference among multiple streams in the same watershed cell could be substantial (greater than 100 fold). Besides a need of finer spatial resolutons than those typically used in MMMs, the results strongly suggest that exposure prediction capability for individual streams in the same watershed is necessary for local scale assessment. As demostrated with ECORAME, the need can be effectively met by handling the water segments as individual cells in future MMMs.