Life cycle bioenergetics of the gray seal (Halichoerus grypus) in the Baltic Sea: Population response to environmental stress

Wildlife ecological risk assessment in the 21st century: Promising technologies to assess toxicological effects

Despite advances in toxicity testing and the development of new approach methodologies (NAMs) for hazard assessment, the ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework for terrestrial wildlife (i.e., air-breathing amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) has remained unchanged for decades. While survival, growth, and reproductive endpoints derived from whole-animal toxicity tests are central to hazard assessment, nonstandard measures of biological effects at multiple levels of biological organization (e.g., molecular, cellular, tissue, organ, organism, population, community, ecosystem) have the potential to enhance the relevance of prospective and retrospective wildlife ERAs. Other factors (e.g., indirect effects of contaminants on food supplies and infectious disease processes) are influenced by toxicants at individual, population, and community levels, and need to be factored into chemically based risk assessments to enhance the "eco" component of ERAs. Regulatory and logistical challenges often relegate such nonstandard endpoints and indirect effects to postregistration evaluations of pesticides and industrial chemicals and contaminated site evaluations. While NAMs are being developed, to date, their applications in ERAs focused on wildlife have been limited. No single magic tool or model will address all uncertainties in hazard assessment. Modernizing wildlife ERAs will likely entail combinations of laboratory- and field-derived data at multiple levels of biological organization, knowledge collection solutions (e.g., systematic review, adverse outcome pathway frameworks), and inferential methods that facilitate integrations and risk estimations focused on species, populations, interspecific extrapolations, and ecosystem services modeling, with less dependence on whole-animal data and simple hazard ratios. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:725-748. © 2023 His Majesty the King in Right of Canada and The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

120-years of ecological monitoring data shows that the risk of overhunting is increased by environmental degradation for an isolated marine mammal population: The Baltic grey seal

The Baltic Sea is home to a genetically isolated and morphologically distinct grey seal population. This population has been the subject of 120-years of careful documentation, from detailed records of bounty statistics to annual monitoring of health and abundance. It has also been exposed to a range of well-documented stressors, including hunting, pollution and climate change. To investigate the vulnerability of marine mammal populations to multiple stressors, data series relating to the Baltic grey seal population size, hunt and health were compiled, vital demographic rates were estimated, and a detailed population model was constructed. The Baltic grey seal population fell from approximately 90,000 to as few as 3000 individuals during the 1900s as the result of hunting and pollution. Subsequently, the population has recovered to approximately 55,000 individuals. Fertility levels for mature females have increased from 9% in the 1970s to 86% at present. The recovery of the population has led to demands for increased hunting, resulting in a sudden increase in annual quotas from a few hundred to 3550 in 2020. Simultaneously, environmental changes, such as warmer winters and reduced prey availability due to overfishing, are likely impacting fecundity and health. Future population development is projected for a range of hunting and environmental stress scenarios, illustrating how hunting, in combination with environmental degradation, can lead to population collapse. The current combined hunting quotas of all Baltic Nations caused a 10% population decline within three generations in 100% of simulations. To enable continued recovery of the population, combined annual quotas of less than 1900 are needed, although this quota should be re-evaluated annually as monitoring of population size and seal health continues. Sustainable management of long-lived slowly growing species requires an understanding of the drivers of population growth and the repercussions of management decisions over many decades. The case of the Baltic grey seal illustrates how long-term ecological time series are pivotal in establishing historical baselines in population abundance and demography to inform sustainable management.

Ten years of marine evolutionary biology-Challenges and achievements of a multidisciplinary research initiative

The Centre for Marine Evolutionary Biology (CeMEB) at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, was established in 2008 through a 10-year research grant of 8.7 m€ to a team of senior researchers. Today, CeMEB members have contributed >500 scientific publications, 30 PhD theses and have organised 75 meetings and courses, including 18 three-day meetings and four conferences. What are the footprints of CeMEB, and how will the centre continue to play a national and international role as an important node of marine evolutionary research? In this perspective article, we first look back over the 10 years of CeMEB activities and briefly survey some of the many achievements of CeMEB. We furthermore compare the initial goals, as formulated in the grant application, with what has been achieved, and discuss challenges and milestones along the way. Finally, we bring forward some general lessons that can be learnt from a research funding of this type, and we also look ahead, discussing how CeMEB's achievements and lessons can be used as a springboard to the future of marine evolutionary biology.

Estimating reproductive costs in marine mammal bioenergetic models: a review of current knowledge and data availability

Reproductive costs represent a significant proportion of a mammalian female's energy budget. Estimates of reproductive costs are needed for understanding how alterations to energy budgets, such as those from environmental variation or human activities, impact maternal body condition, vital rates and population dynamics. Such questions are increasingly important for marine mammals, as many populations are faced with rapidly changing and increasingly disturbed environments. Here we review the different energetic costs that marine mammals incur during gestation and lactation and how those costs are typically estimated in bioenergetic models. We compiled data availability on key model parameters for each species across all six marine mammal taxonomic groups (mysticetes, odontocetes, pinnipeds, sirenians, mustelids and ursids). Pinnipeds were the best-represented group regarding data availability, including estimates of milk intake, milk composition, lactation duration, birth mass, body composition at birth and growth. There were still considerable data gaps, particularly for polar species, and good data were only available across all parameters in 45% of pinniped species. Cetaceans and sirenians were comparatively data-poor, with some species having little or no data for any parameters, particularly beaked whales. Even for species with moderate data coverage, many parameter estimates were tentative or based on indirect approaches, necessitating reevaluation of these estimates. We discuss mechanisms and factors that affect maternal energy investment or prey requirements during reproduction, such as prey supplementation by offspring, metabolic compensation, environmental conditions and maternal characteristics. Filling the existing data gaps highlighted in this review, particularly for parameters that are influential on bioenergetic model outputs, will help refine reproductive costs estimated from bioenergetic models and better address how and when energy imbalances are likely to affect marine mammal populations.

Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic Population Model

Empirical evidence has shown that historical exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to Baltic grey seals not only severely affected individual fitness, but also population growth rates and most likely caused the retarded recovery rate of the depleted population for decades. We constructed a new model which we term a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) population model to quantify these effects. The toxicokinetic sub-model describes in detail the bioaccumulation, elimination and vertical transfer from mother to offspring of PCBs and is linked to a toxicodynamic model for estimation of PCB-related damage, hazard and stress impacts on fertility and survival rates. Both sub-models were linked to a Leslie matrix population model to calculate changes in population growth rate and age structure, given different rates of PCB exposure. Toxicodynamic model parameters related to reproductive organ lesions were calibrated using published historical data on observed pregnancy rates in Baltic grey seal females. Compared to empirical data, the TKTD population model described well the age-specific bioaccumulation pattern of PCBs in Baltic grey seals, and thus, the toxicokinetic parameters, deduced from the literature, are believed to be reliable. The model also captured well the general effects of PCBs on historical population growth rates. The model showed that reduced fertility due to increased PCB exposure causes decreased vertical transfer from mother to offspring and in turn increased biomagnification in non-breeding females. The developed TKTD model can be used to perform population viability analyses of Baltic grey seals with multiple stressors, also including by-catches and different hunting regimes. The model can also be extended to other marine mammals and other contaminants by adjustments of model parameters and thus provides a test bed in silico for new substances.

Key questions in marine mammal bioenergetics

Bioenergetic approaches are increasingly used to understand how marine mammal populations could be affected by a changing and disturbed aquatic environment. There remain considerable gaps in our knowledge of marine mammal bioenergetics, which hinder the application of bioenergetic studies to inform policy decisions. We conducted a priority-setting exercise to identify high-priority unanswered questions in marine mammal bioenergetics, with an emphasis on questions relevant to conservation and management. Electronic communication and a virtual workshop were used to solicit and collate potential research questions from the marine mammal bioenergetic community. From a final list of 39 questions, 11 were identified as 'key' questions because they received votes from at least 50% of survey participants. Key questions included those related to energy intake (prey landscapes, exposure to human activities) and expenditure (field metabolic rate, exposure to human activities, lactation, time-activity budgets), energy allocation priorities, metrics of body condition and relationships with survival and reproductive success and extrapolation of data from one species to another. Existing tools to address key questions include labelled water, animal-borne sensors, mark-resight data from long-term research programs, environmental DNA and unmanned vehicles. Further validation of existing approaches and development of new methodologies are needed to comprehensively address some key questions, particularly for cetaceans. The identification of these key questions can provide a guiding framework to set research priorities, which ultimately may yield more accurate information to inform policies and better conserve marine mammal populations.

A review of bioenergetic modelling for marine mammal populations

Bioenergetic models describe the processes through which animals acquire energy from resources in the environment and allocate it to different life history functions. They capture some of the fundamental mechanisms regulating individuals, populations and ecosystems and have thus been used in a wide variety of theoretical and applied contexts. Here, I review the development of bioenergetic models for marine mammals and their application to management and conservation. For these long-lived, wide-ranging species, bioenergetic approaches were initially used to assess the energy requirements and prey consumption of individuals and populations. Increasingly, models are developed to describe the dynamics of energy intake and allocation and predict how resulting body reserves, vital rates and population dynamics might change as external conditions vary. The building blocks required to develop such models include estimates of intake rate, maintenance costs, growth patterns, energy storage and the dynamics of gestation and lactation, as well as rules for prioritizing allocation. I describe how these components have been parameterized for marine mammals and highlight critical research gaps. Large variation exists among available analytical approaches, reflecting the large range of life histories, management needs and data availability across studies. Flexibility in modelling strategy has supported tailored applications to specific case studies but has resulted in limited generality. Despite the many empirical and theoretical uncertainties that remain, bioenergetic models can be used to predict individual and population responses to environmental change and other anthropogenic impacts, thus providing powerful tools to inform effective management and conservation.

The role of Dynamic Energy Budgets in conservation physiology

The contribution of knowledge, concepts and perspectives from physiological ecology to conservation decision-making has become critical for understanding and acting upon threats to the persistence of sensitive species. Here we review applications of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory to conservation issues and discuss how this theory for metabolic organization of all life on earth (from bacteria to whales) is well equipped to support current and future investigations in conservation research. DEB theory was first invented in 1979 in an applied institution for environmental quality assessment and mitigation. The theory has since undergone extensive development and applications. An increasing number of studies using DEB modelling have provided valuable insights and predictions in areas that pertain to conservation such as species distribution, evolutionary biology, toxicological impacts and ecosystem management. We discuss why DEB theory, through its mechanistic nature, its universality and the wide range of outcomes it can provide represents a valuable tool to tackle some of the current and future challenges linked to maintaining biodiversity, ensuring species survival, ecotoxicology, setting water and soil quality standards and restoring ecosystem structure and functioning in a changing environment under the pressure of anthropogenic driven changes.

Population-level effects of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure on highly vulnerable Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins from their largest habitat

While polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-related risks have been reported at the cellular, organ, and individual levels in some marine mammals, studies quantifying the PCB-associated population-level effects are limited. Here, we combined chemical analysis and individual-based model simulation to investigate the impact of PCBs on the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (sub)population from the Pearl River Estuary (PRE). An annual PCB accumulation rate of 0.29 ± 0.07 mg/kg lipid per year was estimated based on the measured age-specific male data as males continue to accumulate PCBs throughout their lifetime, without depurating contaminant loads. Using the Taiwan Strait dolphin population with low PCBs as a baseline, we compare our model simulations in PRE population to estimate relative population impacts of PCBs and other stressors. When using the current vital rates of the PRE dolphins which have been affected by PCBs and other stressors (e.g., underwater noise, prey limitation, etc.), our simulations revealed a substantial decline (8.1%) in the annual population growth rate (λ) of PRE metapopulation compared to baseline over the next 100 years. At the estimated PCB accumulation rate, the PCB-mediated effects on calf survival and immunity would cause a slight decline (0.9%) in λ relative to baseline. Our findings suggest a relatively limited impact of PCBs on the long-term survival of PRE dolphins among all stressors. However, it should be noted that even under model simulations where dietary PCBs were eliminated, humpback dolphins would still need a long time to reduce their PCB burdens to a relatively "safe" level through biological cycling. Considering that the baseline vital rates might also have been affected by PCBs and other stressors, our results are considered relative rather than absolute. This study provides a starting point for quantifying population-level consequences of contaminant exposure on humpback dolphins, although more efforts are needed to perfect this type of analysis.

Emerging themes in Population Consequences of Disturbance models

Assessing the non-lethal effects of disturbance from human activities is necessary for wildlife conservation and management. However, linking short-term responses to long-term impacts on individuals and populations is a significant hurdle for evaluating the risks of a proposed activity. The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework conceptually describes how disturbance can lead to changes in population dynamics, and its real-world application has led to a suite of quantitative models that can inform risk assessments. Here, we review PCoD models that forecast the possible consequences of a range of disturbance scenarios for marine mammals. In so doing, we identify common themes and highlight general principles to consider when assessing risk. We find that, when considered holistically, these models provide valuable insights into which contextual factors influence a population's degree of exposure and sensitivity to disturbance. We also discuss model assumptions and limitations, identify data gaps and suggest future research directions to enable PCoD models to better inform risk assessments and conservation and management decisions. The general principles explored can help wildlife managers and practitioners identify and prioritize the populations most vulnerable to disturbance and guide industry in planning activities that avoid or mitigate population-level effects.

The Baltic Sea: An ecosystem with multiple stressors

This introductory chapter to our Environment International VSI does not need an abstract and therefore we just include our recommendations below in order to proceed with the resubmission. Future work should examine waterbirds as food web sentinels of multiple stressors as well as Baltic Sea food web dynamics of hazardous substances and how climate change may modify it. Also, future work should aim at further extending the new frameworks developed within BALTHEALTH for energy and contaminant transfer at the population level (Desforges et al., 2018, Cervin et al., 2020/this issue Silva et al., 2020/this issue) and their long term effects on Baltic Sea top predators, such as harbour porpoises, grey seals ringed seals, and white-tailed eagles. Likewise, the risk evaluation conducted for PCB in connection with mercury on Arctic wildlife (Dietz et al., 2019, not a BONUS BALTHEALTH product) could be planned for Baltic Sea molluscs, fish, bird and marine mammals in the future. Finally, future efforts could include stressors not covered by the BONUS BALTHEALTH project, such as food web fluxes, overexploitation, bycatches, eutrophication and underwater noise.