A full-coverage estimation of PM2.5 concentrations using a hybrid XGBoost-WD model and WRF-simulated meteorological fields in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Effects of VOC emissions from chemical industrial parks on regional O3-PM2.5 compound pollution in the Yangtze River Delta

Ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) compound pollution has emerged as a primary form of air pollution in Chinese urban. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs), as common precursors of O3 and PM2.5, play a significant role in air pollution control. Chemical industrial parks (CIPs) are crucial emission sources of VOCs and have garnered significant attention. This study focused on 142 CIPs located in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) to investigate the characteristics of VOC emissions from CIPs and their impact on O3-PM2.5 compound pollution, considering the enhanced atmospheric oxidation capacity (AOC). The Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) model was employed for this analysis. The results show that VOC emissions from CIPs contributed significantly to regional O3 and secondary organic aerosol (SOA), accounting for 17.1 % and 18.18 % of the anthropogenic sources, respectively. Regions exhibiting the highest contributions were located along the Hangzhou Bay. Compared with 2014, an elevation in the contribution of VOC emissions from CIPs to the annual average concentrations of MDA8 O3 and SOA in the YRD in 2017 by 0.069 μg/m3 and 0.007 μg/m3, respectively. During episodes of compound pollution, the concentration of atmospheric oxidant (HOx + NO3) was 28.65 % higher than during clean days, and significant positive correlations were observed between hydrogen oxygen radicals (HOx) and maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8 O3) as well as between HOx and SOA, exhibiting correlation coefficients of 0.86 and 0.48, respectively. Effective control measures for VOC emissions, particularly from the pharmaceutical and petrochemical industry parks located along Hangzhou Bay, are essential in curtailing the production rate of HOx and in regulating AOC levels in the YRD. Maintaining the daily average HOx concentration below 10 ppt would be a valuable strategy in achieving coordinated control of O3 and SOA, thus aiding in the alleviation of O3-PM2.5 compound pollution in the YRD.

A spatiotemporal XGBoost model for PM2.5 concentration prediction and its application in Shanghai

This paper innovatively constructed an analytical and forecasting framework to predict PM2.5 concentration levels for 16 municipal districts in Shanghai. By means of XGBoost parameters adjustment, empirical mode decomposition, and model fusion, improvements are made on XGBoost prediction accuracy and stability so that prediction deviation at extreme points can be avoided. The main findings of this paper can be summarized as follows: 1) Compared with the original model, the goodness of fit of the modified XGBoost model on the test set increased by 17 %, and the root mean square error decreased by 28 %; 2) The variation of PM2.5 concentration in Shanghai has a significant seasonal (cyclical) effect, and its fluctuation period is 3 months (a quarter). In winter, the frequency of extreme value points is significantly higher than that in other seasons; 3) In terms of spatial distribution, the PM2.5 concentration in the central city of Shanghai is higher than that in the rural areas, and the PM2.5 concentration gradually decreases from center city to the surrounding areas. The innovation and contribution of this paper can be summarized as follows: 1) EEMD algorithm verified by SSA was used to decompose the original model without reconstructing all subsequences and get the best weighing among each part of the hybrid model by using variable weight assignment; 2) The city was cut into pieces according to administrative districts in avoid of the duplicate analysis when utilizing advised Kriging interpolation; 3) IDW method was applied to verified Kriging interpolation to increase the accuracy; 4) The latitude and longitude were innovatively converted into the arc length of the corresponding spherical surface; 5) Hierarchical analysis method was used to obtain the order of importance among the PM2.5 monitoring stations, which could improve the accuracy and achieve dimension reduction.

Universal machine-learning algorithm for predicting adsorption performance of organic molecules based on limited data set: Importance of feature description

Adsorption of organic molecules from aqueous solution offers a simple and effective method for their removal. Recently, there have been several attempts to apply machine learning (ML) for this problem. To this end, polyparameter linear free energy relationships (pp-LFERs) were employed, and poor prediction results were observed outside model applicability domain of pp-LFERs. In this study, we improved the applicability of ML methods by adopting a chemical-structure (CS) based approach. We used the prediction of adsorption of organic molecules on carbon-based adsorbents as an example. Our results show that this approach can fully differentiate the structural differences between any organic molecules, while providing significant information that is relevant to their interaction with the adsorbents. We compared two CS feature descriptors: 3D-coordination and simplified molecular-input line-entry system (SMILES). We then built CS-ML models based on neural networks (NN) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). They all outperformed pp-LFERs based models and are capable to accurately predict adsorption isotherm of isomers with similar physiochemical properties such as chiral molecules, even though they are trained with achiral molecules and racemates. We found for predicting adsorption isotherm, XGB shows better performance than NN, and 3D-coordinations allow effective differentiation between organic molecules.

Data reconstruction of daily MODIS chlorophyll-a concentration and spatio-temporal variations in the Northwestern Pacific

Sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) is a key proxy for phytoplankton biomass. Spatio-temporal continuous Chl-a data are important to understand the mechanisms of chlorophyll occurrence and development and track phytoplankton changes. However, the greatest challenge in utilizing daily Chl-a data is massive missing pixels due to orbital position and cloud coverage. This study proposes the application of a spatial filling method using the machine learning-based Extreme Gradient Boosting (BST) to reconstruct missing pixels of daily MODIS Chl-a data from 2007 to 2018. The approach is applied to different trophic biogeographical subregions of the Northwestern Pacific where it has complex phytoplankton dynamics and frequent data missing. Various environmental variables are taken into consideration, including meteorological forcing, geographic and topographic features, and oceanic physical components. The BST-reconstructed Chl-a (BST Chl-a) is validated using in-situ Chl-a measurements, VIIRS and Himawari-8 Chl-a products. The results show that the BST model is highly adaptive in reconstructing Chl-a data, and it performs well in pelagic, offshore and coastal with the best performance in pelagic. BST Chl-a improves coverage without significant quality degradation compared to the original MODIS Chl-a. BST Chl-a agrees better with in-situ data than that of MODIS, with CC of 0.742, RMSE of 0.247, MAE of 0.202 and Bias of 0.089. Cross-satellite validation using VIIRS and Himawari-8 Chl-a also shows promising results with the CC of 0.861 and 0.765, respectively, suggesting the high accuracy of BST Chl-a. The inter-annual trend of BST Chl-a decreases in coastal and increases in offshore and pelagic. BST Chl-a images present similar spatial patterns to MODIS Chl-a under different missing rates, with gradual decreases from coastal to pelagic. It indicates that phytoplankton bloom patterns can be identified by daily BST Chl-a images.

Influence of Spatial Resolution on Satellite-Based PM2.5 Estimation: Implications for Health Assessment

Satellite-based PM2.5 estimation has been widely used to assess health impact associated with PM2.5 exposure and might be affected by spatial resolutions of satellite input data, e.g., aerosol optical depth (AOD). Here, based on Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) AOD in 2020 over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and three PM2.5 retrieval models, i.e., the mixed effects model (ME), the land-use regression model (LUR) and the Random Forest model (RF), we compare these model performances at different spatial resolutions (1, 3, 5 and 10 km). The PM2.5 estimations are further used to investigate the impact of spatial resolution on health assessment. Our cross-validated results show that the model performance is not sensitive to spatial resolution change for the ME and LUR models. By contrast, the RF model can create a more accurate PM2.5 prediction with a finer AOD spatial resolution. Additionally, we find that annual population-weighted mean (PWM) PM2.5 concentration and attributable mortality strongly depend on spatial resolution, with larger values estimated from coarser resolution. Specifically, compared to PWM PM2.5 at 1 km resolution, the estimation at 10 km resolution increases by 7.8%, 22.9%, and 9.7% for ME, LUR, and RF models, respectively. The corresponding increases in mortality are 7.3%, 18.3%, and 8.4%. Our results also show that PWM PM2.5 at 10 km resolution from the three models fails to meet the national air quality standard, whereas the estimations at 1, 3 and 5 km resolutions generally meet the standard. These findings suggest that satellite-based health assessment should consider the spatial resolution effect.

Estimation of Regional Ground-Level PM2.5 Concentrations Directly from Satellite Top-of-Atmosphere Reflectance Using A Hybrid Learning Model

The accurate prediction of PM2.5 concentrations is important for environmental protection. The accuracy of the commonly used prediction methods is not high; so, this paper proposes a PM2.5 concentration prediction method based on a hybrid learning model. The Top-of-Atmosphere Reflectance (TOAR), PM2.5 data decomposed by wavelets, and meteorological data were used as input features to build an integrated prediction model using random forest and LightGBM, which was applied to PM2.5 concentration prediction in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. The practical application showed that the proposed method using TOAR, incorporating wavelet decomposition with meteorological element data, had an improvement of 0.06 in the R2 of the model accuracy and a reduction of 2.93 and 1.14 in the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), respectively, over the model using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). Our model had a prediction accuracy of R2 of 0.91, which was better than the other models. We used this model to estimate and analyze the variation in PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and the results were the same as the actual PM2.5 concentration distribution trend. Obviously, the proposed model has a high prediction accuracy and can avoid the errors caused by the limitations of the AOD inversion method.