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Nasution YN, Sitorus MY, Sukandar K, Nuraini N, Apri M, Salama N. The epidemic forest reveals the spatial pattern of the spread of acute respiratory infections in Jakarta, Indonesia. Sci Rep 2024; 14:7619. [PMID: 38556584 PMCID: PMC10982301 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-58390-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2023] [Accepted: 03/28/2024] [Indexed: 04/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is a communicable disease of the respiratory tract that implies impaired breathing. The infection can expand from one to the neighboring areas at a region-scale level through a human mobility network. Specific to this study, we leverage a record of ARI incidences in four periods of outbreaks for 42 regions in Jakarta to study its spatio-temporal spread using the concept of the epidemic forest. This framework generates a forest-like graph representing an explicit spread of disease that takes the onset time, spatio-temporal distance, and case prevalence into account. To support this framework, we use logistic curves to infer the onset time of the outbreak for each region. The result shows that regions with earlier onset dates tend to have a higher burden of cases, leading to the idea that the culprits of the disease spread are those with a high load of cases. To justify this, we generate the epidemic forest for the four periods of ARI outbreaks and identify the implied dominant trees (that with the most children cases). We find that the primary infected city of the dominant tree has a relatively higher burden of cases than other trees. In addition, we can investigate the timely ( R t ) and spatial reproduction number ( R c ) by directly evaluating them from the inferred graphs. We find that R t for dominant trees are significantly higher than non-dominant trees across all periods, with regions in western Jakarta tend to have higher values of R c . Lastly, we provide simulated-implied graphs by suppressing 50% load of cases of the primary infected city in the dominant tree that results in a reduced R c , suggesting a potential target of intervention to depress the overall ARI spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuki Novia Nasution
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia
| | - Marli Yehezkiel Sitorus
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia
| | - Kamal Sukandar
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2RH, United Kingdom
| | - Nuning Nuraini
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia.
| | - Mochamad Apri
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia
| | - Ngabila Salama
- DKI Jakarta Provincial Health Office, Jakarta, Indonesia
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Aik J, Ang L, Gunther SH, Tang C, Lee JK, Seow WJ. Climate change and population health in Singapore: a systematic review. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2023; 40:100947. [PMID: 38116501 PMCID: PMC10730317 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100947] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2023] [Revised: 09/24/2023] [Accepted: 10/12/2023] [Indexed: 12/21/2023]
Abstract
Gaseous emissions have contributed to global warming, an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and poorer air quality. The associated health impacts have been well reported in temperate regions. In Singapore, key climate change adaptation measures and activities include coastal and flood protection, and mitigating heat impacts. We systematically reviewed studies examining climate variability and air quality with population health in Singapore, a tropical city-state in South-East Asia (SEA), with the aim to identify evidence gaps for policymakers. We included 14 studies with respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular outcomes, foodborne disease and dengue. Absolute humidity (3 studies) and rainfall (2 studies) were positively associated with adverse health. Extreme heat (2 studies) was inversely associated with adverse health. The effects of mean ambient temperature and relative humidity on adverse health were inconsistent. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone were positively associated with adverse health. Climate variability and air quality may have disease-specific, differing directions of effect in Singapore. Additional high quality studies are required to strengthen the evidence for policymaking. Research on effective climate action advocacy and adaptation measures for community activities should be strengthened. Funding There was no funding source for this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joel Aik
- Pre-hospital and Emergency Research Centre, Programme in Health Services and Systems Research, Duke-NUS Medical School, 8 College Road, 169857, Singapore
- National Environment Agency, 40 Scotts Road #13-00, 228231, Singapore
| | - Lina Ang
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Tahir Foundation Building, 12 Science Drive 2 #10-01, 117549, Singapore
| | - Samuel H. Gunther
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, 10 Medical Drive, Block MD 11, #03-10, 117597, Singapore
| | - Charissa Tang
- National Climate Change Secretariat (Singapore), Prime Minister's Office, 100 High Street, The Treasury, 179434, Singapore
| | - Jason K.W. Lee
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, 10 Medical Drive, Block MD 11, #03-10, 117597, Singapore
- Heat Resilience and Performance Centre, National University of Singapore, 27 Medical Drive #03-01, 117510, Singapore
| | - Wei Jie Seow
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Tahir Foundation Building, 12 Science Drive 2 #10-01, 117549, Singapore
- Department of Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, 10 Medical Drive, 117597, Singapore
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Li H, Ge M, Wang C. Spatio-temporal evolution patterns of influenza incidence and its nonlinear spatial correlation with environmental pollutants in China. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1685. [PMID: 37658301 PMCID: PMC10472579 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16646-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 08/29/2023] [Indexed: 09/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Currently, the influenza epidemic in China is at a high level and mixed with other respiratory diseases. Current studies focus on regional influenza and the impact of environmental pollutants on time series, and lack of overall studies on the national influenza epidemic and the nonlinear correlation between environmental pollutants and influenza. The unclear spatial and temporal evolution patterns of influenza as well as the unclear correlation effect between environmental pollutants and influenza epidemic have greatly hindered the prevention and treatment of influenza epidemic by relevant departments, resulting in unnecessary economic and human losses. METHOD This study used Chinese influenza incidence data for 2007-2017 released by the China CDC and air pollutant site monitoring data. Seasonal as well as inter monthly differences in influenza incidence across 31 provinces of China have been clarified through time series. Space-Time Cube model (STC) was used to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of influenza incidence in 315 Chinese cities during 2007-2017. Then, based on the spatial heterogeneity of influenza incidence in China, Generalized additive model (GAM) was used to identify the correlation effect of environmental pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, CO, SO2, NO2, O3) and influenza incidence. RESULT The influenza incidence in China had obvious seasonal changes, with frequent outbreaks in winter and spring. The influenza incidence decreased significantly after March, with only sporadic outbreaks occurring in some areas. In the past 11 years, the influenza epidemic had gradually worsened, and the clustering of influenza had gradually expanded, which had become a serious public health problem. The correlation between environmental pollutants and influenza incidence was nonlinear. Generally, PM2.5, CO and NO2 were positively correlated at high concentrations, while PM10 and SO2 were negatively correlated. O3 was not strongly correlated with the influenza incidence. CONCLUSION The study found that the influenza epidemic in China was in a rapidly rising stage, and several regions had a multi-year outbreak trend and the hot spots continue to expand outward. The association between environmental pollutants and influenza incidence was nonlinear and spatially heterogeneous. Relevant departments should improve the monitoring of influenza epidemic, optimize the allocation of resources, reduce environmental pollution, and strengthen vaccination to effectively prevent the aggravation and spread of influenza epidemic in the high incidence season and areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Li
- Institute of Healthy Geography, School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, China
| | - Miao Ge
- Institute of Healthy Geography, School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, China.
| | - Congxia Wang
- Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Medical College, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710004, China
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Zhang R, Li Y, Bi P, Wu S, Peng Z, Meng Y, Wang Y, Wang S, Huang Y, Liang J, Wu J. Seasonal associations between air pollutants and influenza in 10 cities of southern China. Int J Hyg Environ Health 2023; 252:114200. [PMID: 37329817 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2023.114200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2022] [Revised: 05/20/2023] [Accepted: 06/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
Few studies have explored the associations between air pollutants and influenza across seasons, especially at large scales. This study aimed to evaluate seasons' modifying effects on associations between air pollutants and influenza from 10 cities of southern China. Through scientific evidence, it provides mitigation and adaptation strategies with practical guidelines to local health authorities and environmental protection agencies. Daily influenza incidence, meteorological, and air pollutants data from 2016 to 2019 were collected. Quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate city-specific air pollutants and influenza associations. Meta-analysis was used to pool site-specific estimates. Attributable fractions (AFs) of influenza incidence due to pollutants were calculated. Stratified analyses were conducted by season, sex, and age. Overall, the cumulative relative risk (CRR) of influenza incidence for a 10-unit increase in PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO was 1.45 (95% CI: 1.25, 1.68), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.29, 1.81), 1.87 (95% CI: 1.40, 2.48), 1.74 (95% CI: 1.49, 2.03), and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.36), respectively. Children aged 0-17 were more sensitive to air pollutants in spring and winter. PM10 had greater effect on influenza than PM2.5 in autumn, winter, and overall, lesser in spring. The overall AF due to PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO was 4.46% (95% eCI: 2.43%, 6.43%), 5.03% (95% eCI: 2.33%, 7.56%), 5.36% (95% eCI: 3.12%, 7.58%), 24.88% (95% eCI: 18.02%, 31.67%), and 23.22% (95% eCI: 17.56%, 28.61%), respectively. AF due to O3 was 10.00% (95% eCI: 4.76%, 14.95%) and 3.65% (95% eCI: 0.50%, 6.59%) in spring and summer, respectively. The seasonal variations in the associations between air pollutants and influenza in southern China would provide evidence to service providers for tailored intervention, especially for vulnerable populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rui Zhang
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yonghong Li
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Siyuan Wu
- Sprott School of Business, Carleton University, Ottawa Ontario, Canada
| | - Zhibin Peng
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yujie Meng
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yu Wang
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Songwang Wang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yushu Huang
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Juan Liang
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jing Wu
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
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Wang X, Wang X, Guan X, Xu Y, Xu K, Gao Q, Cai R, Cai Y. The impact of ambient air pollution on an influenza model with partial immunity and vaccination. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2023; 20:10284-10303. [PMID: 37322933 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2023451] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the effects of ambient air pollution (AAP) on the spread of influenza in an AAP-dependent dynamic influenza model. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we establish the threshold dynamics in the term of the basic reproduction number $ \mathcal{R}_0 $: If $ \mathcal{R}_0 < 1 $, the disease will go to extinction, while if $ \mathcal{R}_0 > 1 $, the disease will persist. Epidemiologically, based on the statistical data in Huaian, China, we find that, in order to control the prevalence of influenza, we must increase the vaccination rate, the recovery rate and the depletion rate, and decrease the rate of the vaccine wearing off, the uptake coefficient, the effect coefficient of AAP on transmission rate and the baseline rate. To put it simply, we must change our traveling plan and stay at home to reduce the contact rate or increase the close-contact distance and wear protective masks to reduce the influence of the AAP on the influenza transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaomeng Wang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China
| | - Xue Wang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China
| | - Xinzhu Guan
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China
| | - Yun Xu
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China
| | - Kangwei Xu
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China
| | - Qiang Gao
- Department of Acute Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Huaian Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huaian 223003, China
| | - Rong Cai
- Department of Disinfection and Vector Borne Disease Control, Huaian Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huaian 223003, China
| | - Yongli Cai
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China
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Chan-Zapata I, Borges-Argáez R, Ayora-Talavera G. Quinones as Promising Compounds against Respiratory Viruses: A Review. Molecules 2023; 28:molecules28041981. [PMID: 36838969 PMCID: PMC9967002 DOI: 10.3390/molecules28041981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2023] [Revised: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/15/2023] [Indexed: 02/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Respiratory viruses represent a world public health problem, giving rise to annual seasonal epidemics and several pandemics caused by some of these viruses, including the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2, which continues to date. Some antiviral drugs have been licensed for the treatment of influenza, but they cause side effects and lead to resistant viral strains. Likewise, aerosolized ribavirin is the only drug approved for the therapy of infections by the respiratory syncytial virus, but it possesses various limitations. On the other hand, no specific drugs are licensed to treat other viral respiratory diseases. In this sense, natural products and their derivatives have appeared as promising alternatives in searching for new compounds with antiviral activity. Besides their chemical properties, quinones have demonstrated interesting biological activities, including activity against respiratory viruses. This review summarizes the activity against respiratory viruses and their molecular targets by the different types of quinones (both natural and synthetic). Thus, the present work offers a general overview of the importance of quinones as an option for the future pharmacological treatment of viral respiratory infections, subject to additional studies that support their effectiveness and safety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ivan Chan-Zapata
- Unidad de Biotecnología, Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán, Chuburná de Hidalgo, Merida 97205, Mexico
| | - Rocío Borges-Argáez
- Unidad de Biotecnología, Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán, Chuburná de Hidalgo, Merida 97205, Mexico
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +52-99-99-42-83-30
| | - Guadalupe Ayora-Talavera
- Departamento de Virología, Centro de Investigaciones Regionales “Dr. Hideyo Noguchi”, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Paseo de Las Fuentes, Merida 97225, Mexico
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