Causal effect of PM1 on morbidity of cause-specific respiratory diseases based on a negative control exposure

Associations between ultrafine particle pollution and daily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Shanghai, China: a time-series analysis

Previous epidemiological studies have linked short-term exposure to particulate matter with outpatient visits for respiratory diseases. However, evidence on ultrafine particle (UFP) is still scarce in China. To investigate the association between short-term UFP exposure and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases as well as the corresponding lag patterns, information on outpatient visits for main respiratory diseases during January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019 was collected from electronic medical records of two large tertiary hospitals in Shanghai, China. Generalized additive models employing a Quasi-Poisson distribution were employed to investigate the relationships between UFP and respiratory diseases. We computed the percentage change and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) for outpatient visits related to respiratory diseases per interquartile range (IQR) increase in UFP concentrations. Based on a total of 1,034,394 hospital visits for respiratory diseases in Shanghai, China, we found that the strongest associations of total UFP with acute upper respiratory tract infection (AURTI), bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and pneumonia occurred at lag 03, 03, 0, and 03 days, respectively. Each IQR increase in the total UFP concentrations was associated with increments of 9.02% (95% CI: 8.64-9.40%), 3.94% (95% CI: 2.84-5.06%), 4.10% (95% CI: 3.01-5.20%), and 10.15% (95% CI: 9.32-10.99%) for AURTI, bronchitis, COPD, and pneumonia, respectively. Almost linear concentration-response relationship curves without apparent thresholds were observed between total UFP and outpatient-department visits for four respiratory diseases. Stratified analyses illustrated significantly stronger associations of total UFP with AURTI, bronchitis, and pneumonia among female patients, while that with COPD was stronger among male patients. After adjustment of criteria air pollutants, these associations all remained robust. This time-series study indicates that short-term exposure to UFP was associated with increased risk of hospital visits for respiratory diseases, underscoring the importance of reducing ambient UFP concentrations for respiratory diseases control and prevention.

Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of asthma prevalence: a cross-sectional study at the U.S. County level using geographically weighted random forests

BACKGROUND

Some studies have established associations between the prevalence of new-onset asthma and asthma exacerbation and socioeconomic and environmental determinants. However, research remains limited concerning the shape of these associations, the importance of the risk factors, and how these factors vary geographically.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed (1) to examine ecological associations between asthma prevalence and multiple socio-physical determinants in the United States; and (2) to assess geographic variations in their relative importance.

METHODS

Our study design is cross sectional based on county-level data for 2020 across the United States. We obtained self-reported asthma prevalence data of adults aged 18 years or older for each county. We applied conventional and geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) to investigate the associations between asthma prevalence and socioeconomic (e.g., poverty) and environmental determinants (e.g., air pollution and green space). To enhance the interpretability of the GWRF, we (1) assessed the shape of the associations through partial dependence plots, (2) ranked the determinants according to their global importance scores, and (3) mapped the local variable importance spatially.

RESULTS

Of the 3059 counties, the average asthma prevalence was 9.9 (standard deviation ± 0.99). The GWRF outperformed the conventional random forest. We found an indication, for example, that temperature was inversely associated with asthma prevalence, while poverty showed positive associations. The partial dependence plots showed that these associations had a non-linear shape. Ranking the socio-physical environmental factors concerning their global importance showed that smoking prevalence and depression prevalence were most relevant, while green space and limited language were of minor relevance. The local variable importance measures showed striking geographical differences.

CONCLUSION

Our findings strengthen the evidence that socio-physical environments play a role in explaining asthma prevalence, but their relevance seems to vary geographically. The results are vital for implementing future asthma prevention programs that should be tailor-made for specific areas.