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Audzijonyte A, Delius GW, Stuart-Smith RD, Novaglio C, Edgar GJ, Barrett NS, Blanchard JL. Changes in sea floor productivity are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change in temperate coastal ecosystems according to a new size-based model. PLoS Biol 2023; 21:e3002392. [PMID: 38079442 PMCID: PMC10712853 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3002392] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2022] [Accepted: 10/19/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Asta Audzijonyte
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Gustav W. Delius
- Department of Mathematics, University of York, York, United Kingdom
| | - Rick D. Stuart-Smith
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Graham J. Edgar
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Neville S. Barrett
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
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Stock A, Murray CC, Gregr EJ, Steenbeek J, Woodburn E, Micheli F, Christensen V, Chan KMA. Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 869:161719. [PMID: 36693571 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161719] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2022] [Revised: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 01/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are a key component of tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between the components of an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related to climate change, land and sea use, pollution, and invasive species? We conducted a literature review encompassing 166 studies covering stressors other than fishing mostly in aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled stressors were physical climate change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), and eutrophication (20), using a range of modeling techniques. Despite this comprehensive coverage, we identified four gaps that must be filled to harness the potential of EwE for studying multiple stressor effects. First, only 12% of studies investigated three or more stressors, with most studies focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many studies modeled only one of many pathways through which each stressor is known to affect ecosystems. Second, various methods have been applied to define environmental response functions representing the effects of single stressors on species groups. These functions can have a large effect on the simulated ecological changes, but best practices for deriving them are yet to emerge. Third, human dimensions of environmental change - except for fisheries - were rarely considered. Fourth, only 3% of studies used statistical research designs that allow attribution of simulated ecosystem changes to stressors' direct effects and interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use of the statistical possibilities that arise when simulations can be repeated many times with controlled changes to the inputs. We argue that all four gaps are feasibly filled by integrating ecological modeling with advances in other subfields of environmental science and in computational statistics.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Stock
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 429-2202 Main Mall, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada.
| | - C C Murray
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences, 9860 West Saanich Road, Sidney, BC V8L 5T5, Canada
| | - E J Gregr
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 429-2202 Main Mall, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada; SciTech Environmental Consulting, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - J Steenbeek
- Ecopath International Initiative (EII) Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - E Woodburn
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 429-2202 Main Mall, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada
| | - F Micheli
- Hopkins Marine Station, Oceans Department, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA; Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA
| | - V Christensen
- Ecopath International Initiative (EII) Research Association, Barcelona, Spain; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - K M A Chan
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 429-2202 Main Mall, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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Vilas D, Buszowski J, Sagarese S, Steenbeek J, Siders Z, Chagaris D. Evaluating red tide effects on the West Florida Shelf using a spatiotemporal ecosystem modeling framework. Sci Rep 2023; 13:2541. [PMID: 36781942 PMCID: PMC9925760 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-29327-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Accepted: 02/02/2023] [Indexed: 02/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The West Florida Shelf (WFS), located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, fosters high species richness and supports highly valuable fisheries. However, red tide events occur regularly that can impact fisheries resources as well as ecosystem state, functioning, and derived services. Therefore, it is important to evaluate and quantify the spatiotemporal impacts of red tides to improve population assessments, mitigate potential negative effects through management, and better understand disturbances to support an ecosystem-based management framework. To model red tide effects on the marine community, we used Ecospace, the spatiotemporal module of the ecosystem modeling framework Ecopath with Ecosim. The inclusion of both lethal and sublethal response functions to red tide and a comprehensive calibration procedure allowed to systematically evaluate red tide effects and increased the robustness of the model and management applicability. Our results suggest severe red tide impacts have occurred on the WFS at the ecosystem, community, and population levels in terms of biomass, catch, and productivity. Sublethal and indirect food-web effects of red tide triggered compensatory responses such as avoidance behavior and release from predation and/or competition.. This study represents a step forward to operationalize spatiotemporal ecosystem models for management purposes that may increase the ability of fisheries managers to respond more effectively and be more proactive to episodic mortality events, such as those caused by red tides.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Vilas
- Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Program, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
- Nature Coast Biological Station, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Cedar Key, FL, 32625, USA.
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Box 355020, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
- Resource Assessment and Conservation Engineering Division, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.
| | | | - Skyler Sagarese
- NOAA Fisheries Service - Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | | | - Zach Siders
- Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Program, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - David Chagaris
- Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Program, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
- Nature Coast Biological Station, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Cedar Key, FL, 32625, USA.
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Modelling the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem at high spatial resolution to inform the ecosystem-based management in the region. Sci Rep 2022; 12:19680. [PMID: 36385268 PMCID: PMC9669036 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-18017-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2022] [Accepted: 08/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Cumulative pressures are rapidly expanding in the Mediterranean Sea with consequences for marine biodiversity and marine resources, and the services they provide. Policy makers urge for a marine ecosystem assessment of the region in space and time. This study evaluates how the whole Mediterranean food web may have responded to historical changes in the climate, environment and fisheries, through the use of an ecosystem modelling over a long time span (decades) at high spatial resolution (8 × 8 km), to inform regional and sub-regional management. Results indicate coastal and shelf areas to be the sites with highest marine biodiversity and marine resources biomass, which decrease towards the south-eastern regions. High levels of total catches and discards are predicted to be concentrated in the Western sub-basin and the Adriatic Sea. Mean spatial-temporal changes of total and commercial biomass show increases in offshore waters of the region, while biodiversity indicators show marginal changes. Total catches and discards increase greatly in offshore waters of the Western and Eastern sub-basins. Spatial patterns and temporal mean changes of marine biodiversity, community biomasses and trophic indices, assessed in this study, aim at identifying areas and food web components that show signs of deterioration with the overall goal of assisting policy makers in designing and implementing spatial management actions for the region.
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Planque B, Aarflot JM, Buttay L, Carroll J, Fransner F, Hansen C, Husson B, Langangen Ø, Lindstrøm U, Pedersen T, Primicerio R, Sivel E, Skogen MD, Strombom E, Stige LC, Varpe Ø, Yoccoz NG. A standard protocol for describing the evaluation of ecological models. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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