1
|
Champagne C, Gerhards M, Lana J, García Espinosa B, Bradley C, González O, Cohen JM, Le Menach A, White MT, Pothin E. Using observed incidence to calibrate the transmission level of a mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics including case management and importation. Math Biosci 2021; 343:108750. [PMID: 34883106 PMCID: PMC8786669 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108750] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2021] [Revised: 10/29/2021] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
In this work, we present a simple and flexible model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics which can be easily combined with routinely collected data on local and imported case counts to quantify transmission intensity and simulate control strategies. This model extends the model from White et al. (2016) by including case management interventions targeting liver-stage or blood-stage parasites, as well as imported infections. The endemic steady state of the model is used to derive a relationship between the observed incidence and the transmission rate in order to calculate reproduction numbers and simulate intervention scenarios. To illustrate its potential applications, the model is used to calculate local reproduction numbers in Panama and identify areas of sustained malaria transmission that should be targeted by control interventions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Clara Champagne
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4002, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4001, Switzerland.
| | - Maximilian Gerhards
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4002, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4001, Switzerland
| | - Justin Lana
- Clinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA
| | | | - Christina Bradley
- Clinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA
| | - Oscar González
- Ministerio de Salud de Panama, Calle culebra, Edificio 265 del Ministerio de Salud, Corregimiento de Ancón, Panama
| | - Justin M Cohen
- Clinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA
| | - Arnaud Le Menach
- Clinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA
| | - Michael T White
- Institut Pasteur, Université de Paris, G5 Épidémiologie et Analyse des Maladies Infectieuses, Département de Santé Globale, Paris, F-75015, France
| | - Emilie Pothin
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4002, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4001, Switzerland; Clinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA
| |
Collapse
|