Can Age at Diagnosis and Sex Improve the Performance of the American Thyroid Association Risk Stratification System for Prediction of Structural Persistent and Recurrent Disease in Patients With Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma? A Multicenter Study

Disparities in Thyroid Cancer Diagnosis Based on Residence and Distance From Medical Facility

Context

Rural-urban disparities have been reported in cancer care, but data are sparse on the effect of geography and location of residence on access to care in thyroid cancer.

Objective

To identify impact of rural or urban residence and distance from treatment center on thyroid cancer stage at diagnosis.

Methods

We evaluated 800 adults with differentiated thyroid cancer in the iCaRe2 bioinformatics/biospecimen registry at the Fred and Pamela Buffett Cancer Center. Participants were categorized into early and late stage using AJCC staging, and residence/distance from treating facility was categorized as short (≤ 12.5 miles), intermediate (> 12.5 to < 50 miles) or long (≥ 50 miles). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with late-stage diagnosis.

Results

Overall, 71% lived in an urban area and 29% lived in a rural area. Distance from home to the treating facility was short for 224 (28%), intermediate for 231 (28.8%), and long for 345 (43.1%). All 224 (100%) short, 226 (97.8%) intermediate, and 120 (34.7%) long distances were for urban patients; in contrast, among rural patients, 5 (2.16%) lived intermediate and 225 (65.2%) lived long distances from treatment (P < .0001). Using eighth edition AJCC staging, the odds ratio of late stage at diagnosis for rural participants ≥ 55 years was 2.56 (95% CI, 1.08-6.14) (P = .03), and for those living ≥ 50 miles was 4.65 (95% CI, 1.28-16.93) (P = .0075). Results were similar using seventh edition AJCC staging.

Conclusion

Older age at diagnosis, living in rural areas, and residing farther from the treatment center are all independently associated with late stage at diagnosis of thyroid cancer.

The impact of microscopic extrathyroidal extension on the clinical outcome of classic subtype papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a multicenter study

OBJECTIVES

Despite the presumed overdiagnosis of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) which has resulted in a new trend toward less-extensive surgery and a preference for active surveillance, the impact of microscopic extrathyroidal extension (mETE) on the clinical outcomes of PTMC is still controversial. This study assessed the impact of mETE on the clinical outcomes of patients with classic subtype PTMC.

METHODS

The data of consecutive patients who underwent thyroidectomy and were histopathologically diagnosed as classic subtype PTMC were analyzed. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to assess the impact of contributing variables on persistent/recurrent disease. Disease-free survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

This study included 1013 patients (84% females), with a mean follow-up period of 62.5 ± 35.3 months. Patients with mETE had a significantly higher rate of locoregional persistent/recurrent disease than patients without mETE (9.8% vs 2.1%, p < 0.001). The disease-free survival rate was significantly lower in patients with mETE than in those without (90.2% vs 97%, Log-Rank p < 0.001). Furthermore, mETE and neck lymph node involvement were independent predictors of persistent/recurrent disease in multivariate analysis (HR: 2.43, 95% CI:1.02-5.81, p = 0.043; HR: 4.38, 95% CI: 1.7-11.2, p = 0.002, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with the classic subtype of PTMC, mETE is an independent predictor of persistent/recurrent disease and is associated with a lower DFS rate. However, neck lymph node involvement is the strongest predictor of persistent/recurrent disease. Therefore, PTMCs with mETE and neck lymph node involvement are at a higher risk of persistent/recurrent disease than individuals lacking both characteristics.

Prognostic Factors Improving ATA Risk System and Dynamic Risk Stratification in Low- and Intermediate-Risk DTC Patients

CONTEXT

American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines do not consider age at diagnosis as a prognostic factor on the estimation of the risk of persistent/recurrent disease in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients. While age at diagnosis has already been assessed in high-risk patients, it remains to be established in low- and intermediate-risk patients.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of our study was to investigate the role of age as a prognostic factor in the short- and long-term outcome of DTC patients classified at low and intermediate risk according to the ATA stratification risk system.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 863 DTC patients (mean follow-up: 10 ± 6.2 years) 52% classified as low (449/863) and 48% as intermediate risk (414/863). For each ATA-risk class patients were divided into subgroups based on age at diagnosis (<55 or ≥55 years).

RESULTS

In the intermediate-risk group, patients aged 55 years or older had a higher rate of structural disease (11.6% vs 8.9%), recurrent disease (4.1% vs 0.7%), and death (4.1% vs 1%) when compared with younger patients (<55 years) (P = .007). Multivariate analysis confirmed that older age at diagnosis (odds ratio [OR] = 3.9; 95% CI, 1.9-8.6; P < .001) was an independent risk factor for worse long-term outcome together with response to initial therapy (OR = 13.0; 95% CI, 6.3-27.9; P < .001), and T (OR = 32; 95% CI, 1.4-7.1; P = .005) and N category (OR = 2.3; 95% CI, 1.1-5.0; P = .03). Nevertheless, a negative effect of older age was documented only in the subgroup of intermediate DTC patients with persistent structural disease after initial therapy. Indeed, the rate of worse long-term outcome rose from 13.3% in the whole population of intermediate DTC patients to 47.8% in patients with persistent structural disease after initial therapy (P < .001) and to 80% in patients older than 55 years and persistent structural disease after initial therapy (P = .02).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that age at diagnosis further predict individual outcomes in Intermediate-Risk DTC allowing ongoing management to be tailored accordingly.

A Data-Driven Approach to Refine Predictions of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Outcomes: A Prospective Multicenter Study

CONTEXT

The risk stratification of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is crucial in clinical decision making. The most widely accepted method to assess risk of recurrent/persistent disease is described in the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. However, recent research has focused on the inclusion of novel features or questioned the relevance of currently included features.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a comprehensive data-driven model to predict persistent/recurrent disease that can capture all available features and determine the weight of predictors.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort study, using the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory (ITCO) database (NCT04031339), we selected consecutive cases with DTC and at least early follow-up data (n = 4773; median follow-up 26 months; interquartile range, 12-46 months) at 40 Italian clinical centers. A decision tree was built to assign a risk index to each patient. The model allowed us to investigate the impact of different variables in risk prediction.

RESULTS

By ATA risk estimation, 2492 patients (52.2%) were classified as low, 1873 (39.2%) as intermediate, and 408 as high risk. The decision tree model outperformed the ATA risk stratification system: the sensitivity of high-risk classification for structural disease increased from 37% to 49%, and the negative predictive value for low-risk patients increased by 3%. Feature importance was estimated. Several variables not included in the ATA system significantly impacted the prediction of disease persistence/recurrence: age, body mass index, tumor size, sex, family history of thyroid cancer, surgical approach, presurgical cytology, and circumstances of the diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Current risk stratification systems may be complemented by the inclusion of other variables in order to improve the prediction of treatment response. A complete dataset allows for more precise patient clustering.

Do Histologically Aggressive Subtypes of Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma have Worse Clinical Outcome than Non-Aggressive Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma Subtypes? A Multicenter Cohort Study

Histologically aggressive micropapillary thyroid carcinomas (PTMC) subtypes are thought to be associated with an aggressive clinical course. However, evidence for unfavorable clinical outcomes in patients with aggressive PTMC subtypes is not clear. In this study, we intended to determine the difference in clinical outcomes between patients with aggressive and non-aggressive PTMC subtypes. In this multicenter cohort study, the computer-recorded clinical and histopathological data of patients who underwent thyroid surgery between January 2000 - January 2021 in 9 referral centers and were diagnosed as PTMC were analyzed. A total of 1585 patients [female 1340 (84.5%), male 245 (15.5%), mean age 47.9±11.63 years), with a mean follow-up time of 66.55±37.16 months], were included in the study. Ninety-eight cases were diagnosed as aggressive and 1487 as non-aggressive subtypes. Persistent/recurrent disease was observed in 33 (33.7% )and 41 (2.8%) patients with aggressive and non-aggressive subtypes (p<0.001). Diseases-free survival rates were markedly lower in patients with aggressive than in those with non-aggressive PTMC subtypes (66.3 vs. 94.8%, log-rank p<0.001). Moreover, in multivariate analysis, aggressive histology was an independent predictor of persistent/recurrent disease, after controlling for other contributing factors (HR 5.78, 95% CI 3.32-10, p<0.001). Patients with aggressive PTMC subtypes had higher rates of incomplete biochemical and structural response than patients with non-aggressive subtypes as well (p<0.001). Aggressive PTMC subtypes share many characteristics with histologically identical tumors>1 cm in size. Therefore, the histopathological subtype of PTMC should be taken into consideration to tailor a personalized management plan.

Predictors of Malignancy in Thyroid Nodules Classified as Bethesda Category III

OBJECTIVE

To determine predictors of malignancy in surgically treated Bethesda category III nodules.

METHODS

Patients with surgically treated thyroid nodules classified as Bethesda category III were retrospectively enrolled. The association between clinical/sonographic features and postoperative pathology was evaluated using univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 188 nodules from 184 patients were included. The overall malignancy rate was 54.3%. In univariate analysis, male sex, aspect ratio >1, microcalcification, unclear boundary, BRAF^V600E mutation, and nuclear atypia were significantly associated with malignant disease in Bethesda category III nodules. Multivariate analysis confirmed that male sex, aspect ratio >1, microcalcification, and BRAF^V600E mutation were independent predictors of malignant disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Malignant disease was common in Bethesda category III nodules, and surgical treatment was strongly indicated in the presence of male sex, aspect ratio>1, microcalcification, and BRAF^V600E mutation.