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Oliva V, De Prisco M, Pons-Cabrera MT, Guzmán P, Anmella G, Hidalgo-Mazzei D, Grande I, Fanelli G, Fabbri C, Serretti A, Fornaro M, Iasevoli F, de Bartolomeis A, Murru A, Vieta E, Fico G. Machine Learning Prediction of Comorbid Substance Use Disorders among People with Bipolar Disorder. J Clin Med 2022; 11:jcm11143935. [PMID: 35887699 PMCID: PMC9315469 DOI: 10.3390/jcm11143935] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2022] [Revised: 07/02/2022] [Accepted: 07/04/2022] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Substance use disorder (SUD) is a common comorbidity in individuals with bipolar disorder (BD), and it is associated with a severe course of illness, making early identification of the risk factors for SUD in BD warranted. We aimed to identify, through machine-learning models, the factors associated with different types of SUD in BD. We recruited 508 individuals with BD from a specialized unit. Lifetime SUDs were defined according to the DSM criteria. Random forest (RF) models were trained to identify the presence of (i) any (SUD) in the total sample, (ii) alcohol use disorder (AUD) in the total sample, (iii) AUD co-occurrence with at least another SUD in the total sample (AUD+SUD), and (iv) any other SUD among BD patients with AUD. Relevant variables selected by the RFs were considered as independent variables in multiple logistic regressions to predict SUDs, adjusting for relevant covariates. AUD+SUD could be predicted in BD at an individual level with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 75%. The presence of AUD+SUD was positively associated with having hypomania as the first affective episode (OR = 4.34 95% CI = 1.42–13.31), and the presence of hetero-aggressive behavior (OR = 3.15 95% CI = 1.48–6.74). Machine-learning models might be useful instruments to predict the risk of SUD in BD, but their efficacy is limited when considering socio-demographic or clinical factors alone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vincenzo Oliva
- Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Institute of Neurosciences, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, 170 Villarroel St., 12-0, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; (V.O.); (M.D.P.); (G.A.); (D.H.-M.); (I.G.); (A.M.); (G.F.)
- Department of Biomedical and Neuromotor Sciences, University of Bologna, 40123 Bologna, Italy; (G.F.); (C.F.); (A.S.)
| | - Michele De Prisco
- Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Institute of Neurosciences, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, 170 Villarroel St., 12-0, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; (V.O.); (M.D.P.); (G.A.); (D.H.-M.); (I.G.); (A.M.); (G.F.)
- Section of Psychiatry, Department of Neuroscience, Reproductive Science and Odontostomatology, Federico II University of Naples, 80131 Naples, Italy; (M.F.); (F.I.); (A.d.B.)
| | - Maria Teresa Pons-Cabrera
- Addictions Unit, Department of Psychiatry and Psychology, Institute of Neuroscience, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, 170 Villarroel St., 12-0, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; (M.T.P.-C.); (P.G.)
| | - Pablo Guzmán
- Addictions Unit, Department of Psychiatry and Psychology, Institute of Neuroscience, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, 170 Villarroel St., 12-0, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; (M.T.P.-C.); (P.G.)
| | - Gerard Anmella
- Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Institute of Neurosciences, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, 170 Villarroel St., 12-0, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; (V.O.); (M.D.P.); (G.A.); (D.H.-M.); (I.G.); (A.M.); (G.F.)
| | - Diego Hidalgo-Mazzei
- Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Institute of Neurosciences, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, 170 Villarroel St., 12-0, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; (V.O.); (M.D.P.); (G.A.); (D.H.-M.); (I.G.); (A.M.); (G.F.)
| | - Iria Grande
- Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Institute of Neurosciences, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, 170 Villarroel St., 12-0, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; (V.O.); (M.D.P.); (G.A.); (D.H.-M.); (I.G.); (A.M.); (G.F.)
| | - Giuseppe Fanelli
- Department of Biomedical and Neuromotor Sciences, University of Bologna, 40123 Bologna, Italy; (G.F.); (C.F.); (A.S.)
- Department of Human Genetics, Radboud University Medical Center, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behavior, 6525 GD Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Chiara Fabbri
- Department of Biomedical and Neuromotor Sciences, University of Bologna, 40123 Bologna, Italy; (G.F.); (C.F.); (A.S.)
- Social, Genetic & Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, London SE5 9NU, UK
| | - Alessandro Serretti
- Department of Biomedical and Neuromotor Sciences, University of Bologna, 40123 Bologna, Italy; (G.F.); (C.F.); (A.S.)
| | - Michele Fornaro
- Section of Psychiatry, Department of Neuroscience, Reproductive Science and Odontostomatology, Federico II University of Naples, 80131 Naples, Italy; (M.F.); (F.I.); (A.d.B.)
| | - Felice Iasevoli
- Section of Psychiatry, Department of Neuroscience, Reproductive Science and Odontostomatology, Federico II University of Naples, 80131 Naples, Italy; (M.F.); (F.I.); (A.d.B.)
| | - Andrea de Bartolomeis
- Section of Psychiatry, Department of Neuroscience, Reproductive Science and Odontostomatology, Federico II University of Naples, 80131 Naples, Italy; (M.F.); (F.I.); (A.d.B.)
| | - Andrea Murru
- Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Institute of Neurosciences, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, 170 Villarroel St., 12-0, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; (V.O.); (M.D.P.); (G.A.); (D.H.-M.); (I.G.); (A.M.); (G.F.)
| | - Eduard Vieta
- Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Institute of Neurosciences, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, 170 Villarroel St., 12-0, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; (V.O.); (M.D.P.); (G.A.); (D.H.-M.); (I.G.); (A.M.); (G.F.)
- Correspondence:
| | - Giovanna Fico
- Bipolar and Depressive Disorders Unit, Institute of Neurosciences, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, IDIBAPS, CIBERSAM, 170 Villarroel St., 12-0, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; (V.O.); (M.D.P.); (G.A.); (D.H.-M.); (I.G.); (A.M.); (G.F.)
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