Making individualized decisions in the midst of uncertainties: the case of prostate cancer and biochemical recurrence

Prognostic role of tumour-associated macrophages and macrophage scavenger receptor 1 in prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Recent studies suggested that the tumour associated macrophages may be associated with prostate cancer outcome. A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of tumor associated macrophages and macrophage scavenger receptor 1, marker for a subset of macrophages, by pooled hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals from qualified studies following a systemic search. The results indicate that higher infiltration of tumor associated macrophages predicts poor overall survival (HR=1.57, 95%CI: 1.15-1.98), but not biochemical recurrence (HR=1.01, 95%CI: 0.98-1.04) or recurrence-free survival (HR=1.03, 95%CI: 0.05-2.01). In contrast, elevated level of macrophage scavenger receptor 1 was significantly associated with better recurrence-free survival (HR=3.26, 95%CI: 1.22-5.29). Thus, our analysis confirmed the prognostic value of these markers in prostate cancer outcome. We also discussed potential causes of the controversies in the literature and future research directions.

A Framework for Treatment Decision Making at Prostate Cancer Recurrence

BACKGROUND

Of the 50,000 men in the US who elect for radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, 24% to 40% will have a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence (PSA-R) within 10 years. Deciding whether to administer salvage therapy (ST) at PSA-R presents challenges, as treatment reduces the risk of progression to clinical metastasis but incurs unnecessary side effects should the man die before metastasis. We have developed a new harm-benefit framework using a clinical cohort to inform shared decision making between patients and physicians at PSA-R.

METHODS

Records of 1,045 Johns Hopkins University Hospital patients diagnosed between 1984 and 2013 who had PSA-R following radical prostatectomy were analyzed using marginal structural models to estimate the baseline risk of metastasis and the effect of ST (radiation therapy with or without hormone therapy) while accounting for selection into ST on the basis of PSA growth. The estimated model predicts the harm-benefit tradeoffs of ST within patient subgroups. The benefit of ST is the absolute reduction in the risk of metastasis within 10 years; the harm is the frequency of cancers that would not have metastasized in the patient's lifetime in the absence of ST (overtreatment).

RESULTS

The adjusted hazard ratio associated with ST was 0.41 (95% CI, 0.31 to 0.55). Providing ST to all men at PSA-R reduced the risk of metastasis from 43% to 23% but led to 31% of men being overtreated (harm/benefit = 31/(43-23) = 1.6). Providing ST to men with Gleason score >7 reduced the risk of metastasis from 67% to 39%, with 13% of men being overtreated (harm/benefit = 13/(67-39) = 0.5).

CONCLUSIONS

A quantitative framework that evaluates primary harms and benefits of ST after PSA-R will facilitate informed decision making. Immediate ST may be more appropriate in patient subgroups at elevated risk of metastasis.

Overdetection of recurrence after radical prostatectomy: estimates based on patient and tumor characteristics

PURPOSE

Prostate-specific antigen recurrence (PSA-R) after radical prostatectomy (RP) can occur years before metastasis. This study estimates the chance that an untreated PSA-R would not progress to clinical metastasis within the patient's lifetime, that is, that recurrence is overdetected.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Times from PSA-R to metastasis were estimated from patients with RP treated at Johns Hopkins University (Baltimore, MD) who did not receive salvage treatment (n = 441) at PSA-R. Times to other-cause death were based on U.S. life tables adjusted to reflect other-cause survival among RP cases in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. We used competing risks simulation to estimate lower bounds on the chance that other-cause death would precede clinical metastasis for patients with disease characteristics at diagnosis based on the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) database (n = 4,455).

RESULTS

Cumulative incidence of PSA-R in CaPSURE was 13.6% at 5 years and 19.9% at 10 years. The risk of other-cause death among patients with RP in SEER was 60% lower than the age-matched U.S. population. At least 9.1% of patients with PSA-R <5 years after RP and at least 15.6% of patients with PSA-R 5 to 10 years after RP were overdetected. At least 31.4% of patients over the age of 70 years at diagnosis, who recurred <10 years of diagnosis, were overdetected.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis indicates that PSA-R after RP may be overdetected, with risk depending on patient age and tumor characteristics. The potential for overdetection of recurrence confirms the need for approaches to determine whether and when to initiate salvage therapies.