T1G3 bladder cancer and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin: tell me something we don't know

Establishing the prediction models for recurrence and progression of T1G3 bladder urothelial carcinoma

We aim to determine clinical recurrence and progression risk factors of T1G3 bladder cancer (BCa), and to establish recurrence and progression prediction models. 5-year follow-up records of 106 T1G3 BCa patients from January 2012 to December 2016 were analyzed for recurrence and progression. Two-sample T-test, Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney test, Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the independent risk factors. Effective prognostic nomograms were established to provide individualized prediction, and the calibration curves were founded to evaluate the agreements of the predicted probability with the actual observed probability. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for the recurrence and progression prediction models. The stability of prediction models was validated with an external cohort included 61 T1G3 BCa patients. Of the 106 T1G3 BCa patients, 77 were males (72.6%) and 29 were females (27.4%), with median age 70 years. Within 5 years, recurrence was identified in 67 cases (63.2%), and progression was identified in 31 cases (29.2%). The results showed that large size of tumor, multifocal tumors, recrudescent tumor, non-BCG perfusion therapy were the independent risk factors for recurrence, and large size of tumor, multifocal tumors, recrudescent tumor, concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS) were the independent risk factors for progression. However, no evidence shown that tumor location or operative method was independent risk factors for recurrence and progression. Based on the results of Cox regression analyses, the independent risk factors were used to establish the prediction nomograms to calculate the recurrence and progression probability of each T1G3 BCa patient. Calibration curves, ROC curves and external validation displayed that the nomograms had great value of prediction.

How Should I Manage a Patient with Tumor Recurrence Despite Adequate Bacille Calmette-Guérin?

Intravesical immunotherapy with bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is the main treatment for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), with proven effects on reducing recurrence, progression, and death from NMIBC. However, it is not effective in all patients, and recurrence after adequate BCG therapy can frequently lead to progression to more life-threatening disease. This point-counterpoint review considers how to treat a healthy 60-yr-old patient with T1 high-grade NMIBC fitting the new definition of BCG-unresponsive disease, that is, persistent high-grade disease at 6-12mo, despite an adequate course of induction and maintenance with BCG. PATIENT SUMMARY: When T1 high-grade non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer is persistent or recurs shortly after a full course of bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) plus maintenance, further BCG is not likely to work; this meets the new definition of a "BCG unresponsive" disease. For this situation, the safest (curative) option is removal of the bladder. If that is not an accepted alternative, then a clinical trial or combination intravesical chemotherapy or hyperchemotherapy may be another option.