Antral follicle count is a significant predictor of livebirth in in vitro fertilization cycles

Predictors of success after in vitro fertilization

The last few decades have witnessed a rise in the global uptake of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment. To ensure optimal use of this technology, it is important for patients and clinicians to have access to tools that can provide accurate estimates of treatment success and understand the contribution of key clinical and laboratory parameters that influence the chance of conception after IVF treatment. The focus of this review was to identify key predictors of IVF treatment success and assess their impact in terms of live birth rates. We have identified 11 predictors that consistently feature in currently available prediction models, including age, duration of infertility, ethnicity, body mass index, antral follicle count, previous pregnancy history, cause of infertility, sperm parameters, number of oocytes collected, morphology of transferred embryos, and day of embryo transfer.

Endocrine factors associated with infertility in women: an updated review

INTRODUCTION

Infertility is defined as the inability to conceive after unprotected sexual intercourse for at least 12 consecutive months. Our objective is to present an updated narrative review on the endocrine causes of infertility in women.

AREAS COVERED

A comprehensive review was conducted using Scielo, Scopus, and EMBASE databases, comprising 245 articles. The pathophysiology of infertility in women was described, including endocrinopathies such as hypothalamic amenorrhea, hyperprolactinemia, polycystic ovary syndrome, primary ovarian insufficiency, obesity, thyroid dysfunction, and adrenal disorders. The diagnostic approach was outlined, emphasizing the necessity of hormonal studies and ovarian response assessments. Additionally, the treatment plan was presented, commencing with non-pharmacological interventions, encompassing the adoption of a Mediterranean diet, vitamin supplementation, moderate exercise, and maintaining a healthy weight. Subsequently, pharmacological treatment was discussed, focusing on the management of associated endocrine disorders and ovulatory dysfunction.

EXPERT OPINION

This comprehensive review highlights the impact of endocrine disorders on fertility in women, providing diagnostic and therapeutic algorithms. Despite remaining knowledge gaps that hinder more effective treatments, ongoing research and advancements show promise for improved fertility success rates within the next five years. Enhanced comprehension of the pathophysiology behind endocrine causes and the progress in genetic research will facilitate the delivery of personalized treatments, thus enhancing fertility rates.

Prediction of pregnancy outcome in fresh in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection treatment in patients with poor ovarian reserve

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data from 39,185 cycles who undergoing in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) in the First People's Hospital of Shangqiu, these poor ovarian reserve patients were further categorized into the "unexpected" group (n=3337) and the "expected" group (n=2667) based on POSEIDON classification. In "expected" group, logistic regression analysis showed that female age (OR 0.920; 95% C.I 0.902~0.939; P < 0.001), treatment cycles (OR 0.693; 95% C.I 0.560~0.859; P = 0.001), duration of Gn administered (OR 1.077; 95% C.I 1.027~1.129; P = 0.002) and transferable embryos (OR 1.377; 95% C.I 1.319~1.437; P < 0.001) is independent predictive factors of live birth. In "expected" group, logistic regression analysis showed that female age (OR 0.874; 95% C.I 0.848~0.900; P < 0.001), AFC (OR 1.285; 95% C.I 1.131~1.461; P < 0.001), total dosage of Gn administered (OR 1.001; 95% C.I 1.000~1.002; P < 0.001), duration of Gn administered (OR 0.784; 95% C.I 0.639~0.961; P = 0.019), MII number (OR 0.841; 95% C.I 0.717~0.986; P = 0.032) and transferable embryos (OR 2.057; 95% C.I 1.762~2.400; P < 0.001) is independent predictive factors of live birth. We also established a smooth curve fit to predict the probability of live birth among the POSEIDON "unexpected" and "expected" group. These independent predictive factors on the pregnancy outcome of IVF/ICSI and the successful establishment of smooth curve fit can provide valuable reference for treats poor ovarian reserve patients in clinical work.

Statistical Modelling Outcome of In Vitro Fertilization and Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection: A Single Centre Study

BACKGROUND

Assisted reproductive techniques (ART) have been extensively used to treat infertility. Inaccurate prediction of a couple's fertility often leads to lowered self-esteem for patients seeking ART treatment and causes fertility distress.

OBJECTIVE

This prospective study aimed to statistically analyze patient data from a single reproductive medical center over a period of 18 months, and to establish mathematical models that might facilitate accurate prediction of successful pregnancy when ART are used.

METHODS

In the present study, we analyzed clinical data prospectively collected from 760 infertile patients visiting the second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between June 1, 2016 and December 31, 2017. Various advanced statistical methods, including broken-line regression, were employed to analyze the data.

RESULTS

Age remained the most important factor affecting the outcome of IVF/ICSI. Using the broken-line regression model, the fastest clinical pregnancy declining age was between 25 and 32. Female infertility type was found to be a key predictor for the number of good-quality embryos and successful pregnancy, along with the antral follicle count (AFC), total number of embryos, recombinant follicle stimulating hormones (rFSH) dosage, estradiol (E2) on the trigger day, and total number of oocytes retrieved. rFSH dosage was also significantly associated with the number of oocytes retrieved and the number of frozen embryos.

CONCLUSION

The fastest clinical pregnancy declining age is ranged between 25 and 32, and female infertility type is evidenced as another key predictive factor for the cumulative outcome of ART.

OVARIAN VOLUME BETWEEN FERTILE AND INFERTILE MARRIED WOMEN WITH TRANSVAGINAL SONOGRAPHY

Background: Infertility is a social problem and a big stigma. The objectives of the study were to determine the age wise distribution of ovarian volume and the difference in ovarian volume between married fertile and infertile women with transvaginal sonography. Materials & Methods: This comparative, cross-sectional study was conducted in the Department of Anatomy, Gomal Medical College, D.I.Khan, Pakistan from March 2013 to December 2013. Sample Size was 100 women selected by consecutive non probability sampling technique. Sample size was calculated using online calculator Raosoft. Inclusion criteria were women aged 18-50 years, married, fertile and infertile. Color Doppler sonoscape with multi frequency transvaginal probes were used in measurements on any day in the start of menstrual cycle by the same observer. The volume was calculated by applying formula for ellipsoid called Prolate ellipsoid formula. The total volume was represented by sum of volume of two ovaries. Data collection site was out patient department of Radiology DHQ Teaching Hospital, D.I.Khan. Demographic variable were age groups and presence of fertility. Research variable was ovarian volume. Mean and standard deviation were calculated for ovarian volume whereas frequency and percentages were calculated for age groups and presence of fertility. Descriptive statistics along with estimation of parameter was done at 95% confidence interval for proportion and mean. Student- t test was used for significance of difference in ovarian volume between fertile and infertile women with p value

Prospective observational cohort study: Computational models for early prediction of ongoing pregnancy in fresh IVF/ICSI-ET protocols

PURPOSE

This study sought to identify the significant factors related to ongoing pregnancy (OP) and to discover the most reliable model to distinguish OP from non-OP in early gestational age.

METHODS

A total of 1650 cycles were enrolled in this study. Univariate Logistic Regression was used to identify the predictors included in multivariable analysis. The dataset was then randomly split into training set and test set with proportion of 70% and 30%. Forward stepwise multivariable logistic regression with 5-fold cross validation was used to build the final mathematic model. The performance of the model was determined by the arguments of test set. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and misclassification rate (MR) were then calculated for model evaluation.

RESULTS

Seven predictors were related to OP by univariate analysis. The serum hCG level on 14th day post-embryo-transfer (hCG₁₄) and 21th day post-embryo-transfer (hCG₂₁) were linear correlated. Therefore, different multivariate regression models were built using hCG₁₄ or hCG₂₁, respectively. After multivariate regression with 5-fold validation, the final indicators in model-1 were age_group, hCG₂₁ and hCG₂₁/hCG₁₄, while age_group, hCG₁₄, and calculated 48-hour-rising-ratio of hCG were the significant predictors in model-2. Model-2 showed better sensitivity and NPV, lower MR, and similar specificity and PPV.

CONCLUSION

This study provided an effective mathematic model for early prediction of OP. The model could be of better clinical significance, especially for clinical counseling to manage patients' stress and anxiety, and for early warning of threatened miscarriage.

Flexible Low-Dose GnRH Antagonist Protocol Is Effective in Patients With Sufficient Ovarian Reserve in IVF

Gonadotropin-releasing hormone antagonist (GnRH-ant) has been shown to negatively influence endometrial receptivity. Reducing the GnRH-ant dose during controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) when using a GnRH-ant protocol may be beneficial to embryo implantation. However, whether or not the minimum daily GnRH-ant dose should be individualized remains uncertain. In this retrospective study, we aimed to elucidate the feasibility and effectiveness of moderately reducing the daily GnRH-ant dose to 0.125 mg, and then adjusting the dose to 0.25 mg based on subsequent luteinizing hormone (LH) levels. Of the 434 patients analyzed in this study, 209 received our new flexible low-dose GnRH-ant protocol (Group 1) and 225 received a conventional GnRH-ant protocol with a fixed daily dose of 0.25 mg (Group 2). Furthermore, 105 and 114 cycles from groups 1 and 2 received fresh embryo transfer. In Group 1, 30 patients whose dose of 0.125 mg GnRH-ant was adjusted according to their LH levels and 179 patients who received consistently low doses were further divided into subgroups 1 and 2, respectively. Neither the number of retrieved oocytes and available embryos nor the implantation rate, clinical pregnancy rate, and ongoing pregnancy rate significantly differed between the two groups. However, GnRH-ant dose and stimulation duration were much lower and shorter in Group 1 than in Group 2 (p < 0.05). Subgroup 1 exhibited higher basal follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and lower antral follicle count (AFC) than subgroup 2 significantly. The number of retrieved oocytes and available embryos were lower in subgroup 1 than in subgroup 2 (6.83 ± 3.28 vs. 11.83 ± 4.82, 2.93 ± 1.86 vs. 4.99 ± 3.46, respectively, p < 0.05), while more canceled cycles for pre-ovulation occurred in subgroup 1 than in subgroup 2 (3/30 vs. 1/179, p < 0.05). The results showed that the flexible low-dose GnRH-ant protocol was as effective as the conventional fixed-dose GnRH-ant protocol with 0.25 mg per day for most patients with normal ovarian reserve. This retrospective analysis and the small sample size are the main limitations of this study, and a large sample RCT will be carried out in the future.

Antral follicle count in normal (fertility-proven) and infertile Indian women

Background:

Antral follicle count (AFC) has been labeled as the most accurate biomarker to assess female fecundity. Unfortunately, no baseline Indian data exists, and we continue using surrogate values from the Western literature (inferred from studies on women, grossly different than Indian women in morphology and genetic makeup).

Aims:

(1) To establish the role of AFC as a function of ovarian reserve in fertility-proven and in subfertile Indian women. (2) To establish baseline cut-off AFC values for Indian women.

Settings and Design:

Prospective observational case-control study.

Materials and Methods:

Thirty patients undergoing workup for infertility were included and compared to equal number of controls (women with proven fertility). The basal ovarian volume and AFC were measured by endovaginal. USG the relevant clinical data and hormonal assays were charted for every patient.

Statistical Analysis Used:

SPSS platform was used to perform the Student's t-test and Mann-Whitney U-test for intergroup comparisons. Correlations were determined by Pearson's ranked correlation coefficient.

Results:

Regression analysis revealed the highest correlation of AFC and age in fertile and infertile patients with difference in mean AFC of both the groups. Comparison of the data recorded for cases and controls showed no significant difference in the mean ovarian volume.

Conclusions:

AFC has the closest association with chronological age in normal and infertile Indian women. The same is lower in infertile women than in matched controls. Baseline and cut-off values in Indian women are lower than that mentioned in the Western literature.

Ovarian reserve assessment for infertility investigation

The current trends to postpone motherhood and the increase in demand for assistance in reproductive medicine highlight the need for seeking guidelines for the establishment of individualized treatment protocols. Currently available ovarian reserve tests do not provide sufficient evidence to be solely considered ideal, but they may occupy important place in initial counseling, predicting unsatisfactory results that could be improved by individualized induction schemes and reducing excessive psychological and financial burdens, and adverse effects. In this paper, we revise the role of hormonal basal and dynamic tests, as well as ultrasonographic markers, as ovarian reserve markers, in order to provide embasement for propaedeutic strategies and their interpretation in order to have reproductive success.

Small antral follicle count (2-5 mm) and ovarian volume for prediction of pregnancy in in vitro fertilization cycles

AIMS

To assess the value of antral follicle count (AFC) and other parameters as predictors of pregnancy in in vitro fertilization (IVF).

METHODS

In a cohort study, unselected consecutive women in IVF treatment were evaluated. Pretreatment parameters included AFC (subpopulations of small (2-5 mm) and large (5-10 mm) AFC), ovarian volume, and ovarian stroma Doppler indices.

RESULTS

The study included 115 women of whom 38 (33%) were pregnant. Total AFC was significantly higher in the pregnant than in the non-pregnant group (13.7 ± 5.8 vs. 11.3 ± 5.3, p = 0.034). On receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the pretreatment variables that were significantly associated with pregnancy were small AFC (2-5 mm), total AFC, and ovarian volume/AFC ratio. Women with a positive score (total AFC >15; small AFC (2-5 mm) >10; ovarian volume in mm(3)/AFC, <1400), had a significantly higher number of retrieved oocytes and a higher pregnancy rate than women with a negative score (12.1 ± 5.1 vs. 8.7 ± 5.0, p = 0.027 and 58.3% vs. 30.1%, p = 0.049, respectively). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, total AFC was the only significant and independent predictor of pregnancy (p = 0.034).

CONCLUSION

Pretreatment small AFC and ovarian volume may identify women with a higher probability to achieve pregnancy in IVF.

Factors predicting the cumulative outcome of IVF/ICSI treatment: a multivariable analysis of 2450 patients

BACKGROUND

Knowing predictors of pregnancy in IVF is helpful for clinicians to individualize the treatment plans and improve patient counseling and for patients to decide whether to undergo infertility treatment. The aim of the study was to identify independent predictors of the chance of clinical pregnancy after a completed IVF/ICSI cycle (fresh plus cryopreserved embryos transferred from one stimulated cycle) and to compare the predictive value of important predictors identified.

METHODS

This was a single center, retrospective study of 2450 infertile women undergoing their first IVF treatment between 2002 and 2007. A bootstrapping stepwise variable selection algorithm was performed to identify independent predictors of clinical pregnancy chance from a list of 27 candidate variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used for assessing the effects of predictors. Proportion of explained variation analysis and concordance index were adopted to compare the predictive value of factors.

RESULTS

The following nine independent predictors were included in the final multivariable model: total number of good-quality embryos, total number of embryos, age, antral follicle count, fertilization rate, duration of infertility, endometrial thickness, number of 10-14-mm follicles and progesterone level on the day of hCG injection. The model was cross-validated internally in the training data and validated externally in an independent data with robust performance. The stratified analysis demonstrated that the total number of good-quality embryos was a better predictor of clinical pregnancy chance after a completed IVF/ICSI cycle than age for women <40 years, whereas age was a better predictor for women ≥ 40 years. The restricted cubic spline analysis revealed the relationship between the total number of good-quality embryos and log-odds of achieving a clinical pregnancy was nonlinear.

CONCLUSIONS

Quality and quantity of the whole embryos are the two most important predictors of the cumulative outcome in IVF/ICSI among independent predictors indentified. The importance of embryo quality on cumulative outcome in IVF/ICSI increases with increasing age.

Anti-Müllerian hormone-based prediction model for a live birth in assisted reproduction

Prediction of assisted reproduction treatment outcome has been the focus of clinical research for many years, with a variety of prognostic models describing the probability of an ongoing pregnancy or a live birth. This study assessed whether serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentrations may be incorporated into a model to enhance the prediction of a live birth in women undergoing their first IVF cycle, by analysing a database containing clinical and laboratory information on IVF cycles carried out between 2005 and 2008 at the Mother-Infant Department of University Hospital, Modena. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of live birth with baseline patient characteristics. Only AMH and age were demonstrated in regression analysis to predict live birth, so a model solely based on these two criteria was generated. The model permitted the identification of live birth with a sensitivity of 79.2% and a specificity of only 44.2%. In the prediction of a live birth following IVF, a distinction, however moderate, can be made between couples with a good and a poor prognosis. The success of IVF was found to mainly depend on maternal age and serum AMH concentrations, one of the most relevant and valuable markers of ovarian reserve.

The level of vascular endothelial cell growth factor, nitric oxide, and endothelin-1 was correlated with ovarian volume or antral follicle counts: a potential predictor of pregnancy outcome in IVF

The objective of this study was to investigate the correlation between the concentrations of vascular endothelial cell growth factor (VEGF), nitric oxide (NO), or endothelin-1 (ET-1) in follicular fluid with antral follicle counts (AFCs) or ovarian volume in order to predict the outcome of in vitro fertilization (IVF). One hundred and thirty-one patients were enrolled in this study, and the pregnancy rate was 37.4%. The concentration of VEGF or NO was significantly increased, while the concentration of ET-1 in follicular fluid was decreased in the group who became pregnant (P&#x00A0;&lt;&#x00A0;0.05). The ovarian volume or AFC was significantly higher in groups that became pregnant (P&#x00A0;&lt;&#x00A0;0.05). In addition, the ovarian volume or AFC was positively correlated with the concentration of VEGF or NO and negatively correlated with the concentration of ET-1 in follicular fluid. Our data suggest that these correlations may be associated with the successful pregnancies through IVF.

Age-specific nomogram for the decline in antral follicle count throughout the reproductive period

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between antral follicle count (AFC) and chronological age and to establish normal values for AFC in women with regular menstrual cycles.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

University hospital.

PATIENT(S)

Four hundred fifteen premenopausal women were recruited for the study. Data from 362 patients were available for the statistical analysis.

INTERVENTION(S)

AFC was measured by transvaginal ultrasound examination.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Estimating the relationship between AFC and age and developing the AFC nomogram.

RESULT(S)

The analysis showed a linear decline in AFC with age; for every year increase in age, the median AFC decreases by 0.4. The AFC corresponding to the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th centiles for each age have been calculated.

CONCLUSION(S)

A linear relationship of AFC to age was found. For the first time, a nomogram reporting normal and interquartile values for AFC, age by age, throughout the reproductive period has been provided. Until now, the interpretation of the measurement was mainly based on the individual experience of the operator, because no normative data were present. Therefore, the establishment of a nomogram of AFC values is the first step to counsel patients on a scientific basis.

Antral follice counts (AFC) predict ovarian response and pregnancy outcomes in oocyte donation cycles

PURPOSE

Antral follicle count (AFC) is used as a marker of ovarian response. We assessed its value in predicting pregnancy outcomes in ovum donation cycles by retrospective review.

METHODS

Oocyte donors (n = 94) underwent ovarian hyperstimulation using rFSH and GnRH-antagonists. Recipients were synchronized using GnRH-agonist down-regulation followed by fixed dose of estrogen and progesterone following hCG. Outcomes measured included correlation of AFC to pregnancy outcomes and cycle characteristics in those with and without clinical and ongoing-delivered cycles.

RESULTS

AFC significantly correlated with clinical [Exp beta 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02-1.23, p < 0.05] and ongoing-delivered pregnancy [Exp beta 1.10; 95% CI: 1.01-1.20, p < 0.05]. Significantly greater AFC, total and M-2 oocytes, and cycles resulting in cryopreserved embryos were seen in clinical and ongoing-delivered cycles.

CONCLUSIONS

AFC predicts cycle stimulation responses and clinical outcomes and may serve as a guide for dosing protocols and in choosing to proceed with the most optimal cycle.

Prediction of high ovarian response to controlled ovarian hyperstimulation: anti-Müllerian hormone versus small antral follicle count (2-6 mm)

PURPOSE

To evaluate the predictive value of basal serum anti-müllerian hormone level and small antral follicle count for high ovarian response to controlled ovarian hyperstimulation.

METHODS

A total of 159 patients were prospectively included. Basal serum anti-müllerian hormone and small antral follicle count (2-6 mm) were measured.

RESULTS

Small antral follicle count and anti-müllerian hormone have similar predictive accuracy for high ovarian response with area under curve of 0.961 and 0.922, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity for prediction of high ovarian response were 89% and 92% for small antral follicle count and 93% and 78% for anti-müllerian hormone at the cutoff values of > or = 16 and > or = 34.5 pmol/l, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Small antral follicle count and anti-müllerian hormone are equally accurate predictors of high ovarian response and facilitate determination of the optimal strategy for controlled ovarian hyperstimulation.