Predictive factors of failure in management of ectopic pregnancy with single-dose methotrexate: a general population-based analysis from the Auvergne Register, France

The predictors of successful methotrexate treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy

BACKGROUND

The pre-treatment characteristics of the patient and ectopic pregnancy to determine the patients who are likely to successfully respond to methotrexate (MTX) therapy remain controversial. This study investigated the outcomes of ectopic pregnancy after one and two MTX doses and their independent predictors.

METHODS

Retrospective cross-sectional study of women who consented to MTX treatment in 2017-2018 at our institution (N = 317). Of these, patients with Caesarean scar pregnancies were excluded because they require different treatment protocols (n = 25). All patients were treated according to our institution's protocol based on international guidelines and standardised across the three hospitals included in the current study. We retrieved patients' demographics, laboratory, ultrasonography, and clinical characteristics from our hospital database. Serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) was measured using electrochemiluminescence immunoassay; ectopic pregnancy was diagnosed using ultrasonography (transvaginal probe).

RESULTS

Two ninety-two patients were included in the current analysis. Age, pre-treatment β-hCG levels, sonographic presence of yolk sac, presence of foetal cardiac activity, and pelvic pain were significantly different between patients with successful and unsuccessful outcomes. Younger age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-4.66, p = .017), no pelvic pain (aOR 2.65, 95%CI 1.03-6.83, p = .043), lower initial β-hCG level (aOR 1.32, 95%CI 1.08-1.59, p = .005), and absence of foetal cardiac activity (aOR 12.63; 95% CI 1.04-153.6; p = .047) were independently associated with success. Treatment failure odds were >2 folds higher for each 10-year age increase (p = .017), 32% higher for each 1000 IU/L increase in initial β-hCG level (p = .005), and >2 folds higher in presence of pelvic pain (p = .043).

CONCLUSIONS

MTX is effective in most patients, averting invasive surgery, which might affect fertility. Pre-treatment β-hCG levels, age, pelvic pain, and foetal cardiac activity was independently associated with outcomes. Research should assess the relationship between the ectopic pregnancy size and treatment outcomes and refine β-hCG titres where treatment would be ineffective.

Comparison of the success rates of a single dose and an additional dose of methotrexate on the 4th day in patients whose β-hCG values do not fall after a single dose of methotrexate (Day 0-4)

INTRODUCTION

This study's aim is to investigate whether the rise in β-hCG levels between days 0 and 4 in patients with tubal ectopic pregnancy who have received a single dose of methotrexate has prognostic value in treatment success, and to investigate whether administering a second dose on day 4 enhances treatment success.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients diagnosed with ectopic pregnancy and experiencing an increase in β- hCG levels on day 4 after initiation of methotrexate treatment were included in our study. Patients treated with a single dose Methotrexate (MTX) protocol until December 2019 were retrospectively screened from January 2018 to December 2019. Patients receiving a second dose on day 4 until September 2021 were prospectively enrolled from January 2020 to September 2021. A decrease of over 15 % in the β-hCG value after the 4th dose was considered as treatment success.

RESULTS

Treatment success rates were compared between these two groups. 115 patients with ectopic pregnancy were included in the study. A single dose methotrexate protocol was applied in 67 of the patients (Group 1), while an additional dose methotrexate was applied in 48 (Group 2). The treatment was successful in 40 patients (59.7 %) in Group 1 and in 39 patients (81.3 %) in Group 2. The success rate of the treatment was significantly higher in patients who received an additional dose methotrexate protocol (p = 0.014).

DISCUSSION

This study shows that; it is possible to increase success rates by applying an additional MTX dose on the 4th day in cases with an increase in β-hCG on the 4th day.

Day 4 and day 0 neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios as predictors of treatment failure with single-dose methotrexate for ectopic pregnancies

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate changes in the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) between day 4 and day 0 in ectopic pregnancy (EP) patients treated with single-dose methotrexate (MTX) and investigate its predictive value for treatment outcome.

METHODS

A total of 406 EP patients receiving single-dose MTX therapy at Shanghai First Maternity and Infant Hospital from January 10, 2013 to September 30, 2019 were studied. A multivariate model was constructed to predict treatment outcome.

RESULTS

Among the 406 patients, 281 were treated successfully. Treatment success declined significantly when NLR decreased by less than 23% (74.8% vs 58.5%, P = 0.004). Multivariate regression analysis identified NLR reduction of less than 23% on day 4 (odds ratio [OR] 2.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27-3.44), a human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) decrease of 15% or less (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.62-6.34), and an hCG increase of more than 15% on day 4 (OR 5.47, 95% CI 3.05-10.22) as independent risk factors for single-dose MTX treatment failure. The final predictive model had a sensitivity of 0.768 and a specificity of 0.569, using a cut-off value of 3. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.712. Patients with a predictive score of ≥3 were more likely to fail single-dose MTX therapy.

CONCLUSION

The present study concluded that an NLR decrease of less than 23% on day 4, a plateau or increase in serum hCG on day 4, and an hCG value greater than 1000 mIU/mL on day 0 were predictors of single-dose MTX treatment failure in EP patients.

β-Human Chorionic Gonadotropin Dynamics in Early Gestational Events: A Practical and Updated Reappraisal

In the last decade, the widespread use of transvaginal ultrasound and the availability of highly specific serum assays of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) have become mainstays in the evaluation of early pregnancy. These tests have revolutionized the management of pregnancies of unknown location and markedly reduced the morbidity and mortality associated with the misdiagnosis of ectopic pregnancy. However, despite several advances, their misuse and misinterpretations are still common, leading to an increased use of healthcare resources, patient misinformation, and anxiety. This narrative review aims to succinctly summarize the β-hCG dynamics in early gestation and provide general gynecologists a practical approach to patients with first-trimester symptomatic pregnancy.

Predictors of Successful Medical Management With Methotrexate in Unruptured Tubal Ectopic Pregnancy

Introduction Medical treatment with methotrexate (MTX) is a safe and effective alternative to surgery in carefully selected cases of ectopic pregnancies diagnosed early prior to rupture. Aim To determine the optimal pre-treatment levels of beta human chorionic gonadotropin (𝛽-hCG) and its changing trends most likely to have a successful outcome with medical management. Material and methods A prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary teaching hospital from December 2018 to May 2021. "Single-dose" MTX regime was used for medical management of ectopic pregnancy in patients fulfilling the selection criteria. The 𝛽-hCG levels were recorded at baseline and on day 4 and day 7 of MTX injection. Thereafter, at weekly intervals till complete resolution or surgical intervention due to failure of medical management. In addition, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for a pre-treatment 𝛽-hCG cut-off value and changing trends in post-treatment 𝛽- hCG levels most likely to have a successful outcome with MTX treatment were determined. Results Fifty patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included in the study, with successful medical management in 33 (66%). The mean pre-treatment 𝛽-hCG levels in women with successful medical management were 3270.97 (+/- 901) compared to 5249.17 (+/-808.02) for those with treatment failure (p=0.00001). The mean 𝛽-hCG level in the failed treatment group was significantly higher on day 4 than the pre-treatment levels (6742.56 +/- 572 vs. 5249.17+/- 808.02; p<0.05). Inadequate reduction of 𝛽-hCG level on day 7 (<15% of day 4 levels) requiring repeat dosage of MTX was more likely to have an unsuccessful outcome (p=0.00001). The area under curve (AUC) value of 0.905 (95% CI: 0.814-0.996) depicted that pre-treatment 𝛽-hCG level of 4000 mIU/ml taken as the cut-off value was able to predict levels ≤4000 mIU/ml had a greater likelihood of successful outcome with MTX, having a sensitivity of 84.5%, specificity of 83.3%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 90.3%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 75% (p< 0.05). Demographic variables or previous clinical history, considered risk factors for ectopic pregnancy, did not affect the outcome of medical management in this study. Conclusion Medical management of ectopic pregnancy is a viable first-line treatment option in carefully selected patients. In this study, the most important predictors for the successful outcome of medical management were the pre-treatment β-hCG levels and their fall on day 4 and day 7 after MTX therapy.

Association Between White Blood Cells at Baseline and Treatment Failure of MTX for Ectopic Pregnancy

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate white blood cell (WBC) count as a risk factor related to methotrexate (MTX) treatment failure in patients with ectopic pregnancy (EP).

Methods: A total of 236 women diagnosed with EP and treated with a single dose of MTX were included. The exposure variable was WBC count at baseline, and the outcome was MTX treatment outcome. Both a multivariate binary logistics regression model and subgroup analysis were performed to evaluate the association between WBC and MTX non-response.

Results: WBC count was associated with the risk of treatment failure, and the odds ratio (OR) in different multivariate models was stable [minimally adjusted model: OR 1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0–1.3, p = 0.008; fully adjusted model: OR 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0–1.4, p = 0.026]. For WBCs in group T3 (>8.9 × 109/L), the association between WBC count and treatment failure was significant (minimally adjusted model: OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.0–3.8, p = 0.050; fully adjusted model: OR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.1–5.6, p = 0.034). Subgroup analysis showed that in participants with regular menstruation (OR 1.1, 95% CI: 1.0–1.3), WBC count was significantly different from irregular menstruation (OR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2–2.8); p for interaction was 0.031.

Conclusions: We found a reliable and non-linear relationship between WBC count and MTX treatment failure for EP.

The Use of Single Dose Methotrexate in the Management of Ectopic Pregnancy and Pregnancy of Unknown Location: 10 Years’ Experience in a Tertiary Center

Objective

To study factors associated with the success of single dose methotrexate (MTX) treatment in women with ectopic pregnancy.

Methods

This is a retrospective study of women (n=110) with ectopic pregnancy and treated with single dose of MTX. The clinical presentations, transvaginal sonography (TVS) findings, pretreatment beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-HCG), and progesterone values were compared between the treatment success (Group S) and treatment failure (Group F) groups.

Results

The overall success rate of treatment with single dose of MTX was 75.45%. The majority of patients in both groups presented with pain and bleeding (~55%), and bleeding only was the presenting symptom in about 20% of patients. Only 3 patients (3.61%) in Group S required a repeat dose of MTX. In contrast, 51.8% of the Group F patients required a repeat dose. The mean pretreatment β-HCG level was 2.3 times higher in Group F than in Group S (1734±1684 vs 4036±2940 IU/L). The data showed a β-HCG level of 3924IU/L as a suitable cut-off value with 76.19% sensitivity and 62.5% specificity to predict MTX treatment success. History of ectopic pregnancy had no relation with success/treatment failure or a repeat dose. None of the TVS findings were related to the outcome of the treatment, whereas pretreatment HCG level was a significant predictor.

Conclusion

The single dose MTX treatment was successful in 75.45% (83/110) of cases, with 3.61% (3/83) requiring a repeat dose of the drug. Pretreatment β-HCG level is a significant predictor of the treatment outcome.

A Model to Predict Treatment Failure of Single‑Dose Methotrexate in Patients with Tubal Pregnancy

Background

In China, approximately 15% of tubal pregnancy patients treated with MTX eventually required surgery because the ectopic mass was ruptured; therefore, it is essential to develop a model to predict the risk of failure with methotrexate treatment in tubal pregnancy.

Material/Methods

In this research, 168 patients met the eligibility criteria, and 29 candidate risk factors for treatment failure were collected. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the factors, and a full model was developed. We used a multiple fractional polynomial model and a stepwise model to increase the reliability. Bootstrap resampling for 500 times was used to internally test the prediction model. The integral performance of the model depends on the evaluation of the nomogram, the discriminative performance by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and calibration.

Results

The model showed excellent discrimination and calibration. The area under the ROC curve for the prediction model, mfp model, and stepwise model were 0.879 (95% CI: 0.812–0.942), 0.872 (95% CI: 0.805–0.931), and 0.880 (95% CI: 0.817–0.949), respectively. At a cutoff value of ≥0.40, sensitivity was 60%, specificity was 91%, positive predictive value (PPV) was 81%, and negative predictive value (NPV) was 77%. The model provides a net benefit when clinical decision thresholds are between 0% and 40% of predicted risk.

Conclusion

This model indicated good accuracy in predicting methotrexate treatment failure for tubal pregnancy patients.

Clinical predictors of failing one dose of methotrexate for ectopic pregnancy after in vitro fertilization

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to investigate the clinical predictors of failure of a single dose of methotrexate (MTX) for management of ectopic pregnancy after in vitro fertilization (IVF).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed of women who conceived ectopic pregnancies following fresh or frozen IVF cycles at an academic infertility clinic between 2007 and 2014, and received intramuscular MTX (50 mg/m²). Successful single-dose MTX treatment was defined as a serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) decline ≥15% between days 4 and 7 post-treatment. Logistic regression models adjusted for oocyte age, number of embryos transferred, and prior ectopic pregnancy were used to estimate the adjusted odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of failing one dose of MTX.

RESULTS

Sixty-four patients with ectopic pregnancies after IVF were included. Forty required only one dose of MTX (62.5%), while 15 required additional MTX alone (up to four total doses, 23.4%), and 9 required surgery (14.1%). By multivariable logistic regression, the highest tertiles of serum hCG at peak (≥499 IU/L, OR = 9.73, CI 1.88-50.25) and at first MTX administration (≥342 IU/L, OR = 4.74, CI 1.11-20.26), fewer embryos transferred (OR = 0.37 per each additional embryo transferred, CI 0.19-0.74), and adnexal mass by ultrasound (OR = 3.65, CI 1.10-12.11) were each correlated with greater odds of requiring additional MTX and/or surgery.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to report that in women with ectopic pregnancies after IVF, higher hCG-though well below treatment failure thresholds previously described in spontaneous pregnancies-fewer embryos transferred, and adnexal masses are associated with greater odds of failing one dose of MTX. These findings can be used to counsel IVF patients regarding the likelihood of success with single-dose MTX.

Predictive factors of methotrexate treatment success in ectopic pregnancy: A single-center tertiary study

OBJECTIVE:

It is controversial whether medical or surgical treatment options have more successful results in ectopic pregnancy treatment. Although high pretreatment serum hCG levels have been known to be the most important predictor, the appropriate treatment modality for a specific range of hCG level remains unclear. Furthermore, the variables that make a patient a bad candidate for single-dose methotrexate treatment is unclear. The aim of this study was to identify predictive factors associated with the success of single-dose methotrexate treatment in women with ectopic pregnancy.

METHODS:

In this retrospective study, 101 women with tubal ectopic pregnancies who had been treated with single-dose methotrexate were selected. The gestational ages, pretreatment hCG values, ectopic mass size, and fluid presence in the abdomen were compared between the groups.

RESULTS:

The mean age of the patients was 30.6±5.8 (range, 19–42) years, and the gestational age at first injection was 7.0±2.13 (range, 2.3–13.6) weeks. The overall treatment success rate was 77.2% (n=79). The mean duration of hospital stay was 4.21±1.89 days in the successfully treated group and 6.92±2.13 days in the failure group (p<0.05). The rate of treatment failure in patients with abdominal fluid was 37.8%, and it was 12.7% in the non-fluid group (p=0.03). hCG values on days 1, 4, and 7 were significantly higher in the unsuccessful group (3887–2589 mIU/mL, 2814–1287 mIU/mL, and 1119–285 mIU/mL, respectively; p<0.05). The cutoff hCG value, which determined the failure of methotrexate treatment, was found to be 1362 mIU/mL.

CONCLUSION:

In present study, patients with hCG value <1362 mIU/mL were found to be good candidates for methotrexate treatment. Although not strictly decisional, this hCG threshold level can be used to decide on the likelihood of methotrexate success or failure. Detection of abdominal fluid on ultrasonography also can be assessed as a bad prognostic factor, but size of ectopic mass does not correlate with methotrexate treatment success.

Predictive factors for the methotrexate treatment outcome in ectopic pregnancy: A comparative study of 400 cases

OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate the global success rate of intramuscular methotrexate for the treatment of ectopic pregnancy, identify factors predictive of treatment success or failure, and study methotrexate tolerability in a large patient cohort.

STUDY DESIGN

For this single-center retrospective observational study, we retrieved the records of all women who had a clinically or echographically confirmed ectopic pregnancy with a Fernandez score <13 and who were treated according to a 1mg/kg intramuscular single-dose methotrexate protocol. Medical treatment failure was defined by an obligation to proceed to laparoscopy. Needing a second injection was not considered to be medical treatment failure.

RESULTS

Between February 2008 and November 2013 (69 months), 400 women received methotrexate for ectopic pregnancy. The medical treatment protocol was effective for 314 patients, i.e., an overall success rate of 78.5%. A single methotrexate dose was sufficient for 63.5% of the women and a second dose was successful for 73.2% of the remaining women. The medical treatment success rate fell as initial hCG levels climbed. The main factors associated with methotrexate failure included day (D) 0, D4 and D7 hCG levels, pretherapeutic blood progesterone, hematosalpinx at D0 and pain at D7. Early favorable kinetics of hCG levels was predictive of success. Methotrexate treatment was successful in 90% of women who had D0 hCG <1000IU/l. Methotrexate tolerability was good, with only 9% of the women reporting non-severe adverse effects. The fertility rate with delivery after medical treatment for ectopic pregnancy was 80.7%.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we showed that an initial hCG value <1000IU/l and favorable early HCG kinetics were predictive factors for the successful medical treatment of ectopic pregnancy by methotrexate, and hematosalpinx and pretherapeutic blood progesterone >5ng/ml at diagnosis were predictive of its failure. We also confirmed good tolerability for single-dose methotrexate protocols.

[Treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy by methotrexate]

OBJECTIVES

To make a literature analyse about methotrexate as a treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We made a PubMed research and found articles, randomized control studies, systematic revues and meta-analyses of the Cochrane Database about ectopic pregnancies treated by methotrexate. We made a summary of these articles.

RESULTS

Methotrexate can be used as a treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy with hCG<5000 UI/L and expectative is an option if hCG level is lower than 1500 UI/L. Medical treatment by methotrexate seems to be less effective than surgical salpingotomy but the rate of recurrence and the rate of intra-uterine pregnancy are similar regardless of the treatment chosen. Fertility seems to be the same after treatment by methotrexate. Economically, methotrexate is less expensive than the surgical management (laparoscopy).

CONCLUSION

Methotrexate can be used as a treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancies if every criterions of safety are gathered.

ß-hCG and prediction of therapeutic success in ectopic pregnancies treated with methotrexate, results from a prospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of different beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin (ß-hCG) levels measurement, for predicting success of medical treatment in cases diagnosed as tubal ectopic pregnancy (TEP).

DESIGN

Five-year prospective observational study.

SETTING

Prenatal Diagnosis Unit, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital - Barcelona.

PATIENTS

TEP cases fulfilling criteria for medical treatment with Methotrexate.

INTERVENTIONS

ß-hCG levels were measured on d 0, 4 and 7 of treatment. Results were compared by non-parametrical tests. A ROC curve was plotted to define cut-off points. Diagnostic accuracy of the different measurements was evaluated.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Failure of treatment defined as need for surgical treatment or persistence of high ß-HCG levels despite treatment.

RESULTS

126 women were diagnosed as TEP, eligible for medical treatment. There were no differences in parity, age, previous TEP, or adnexal mass size. Success rate was 88%. ß-HCG decreased significantly more, between days 0-7 and 4-7, in the successful cases. LR for success prediction was 6.2 and 7.8 for ß-HCG levels at days 4 and 7 respectively, 4.02 and 2.47 for decrement between days 0-7 (25%) and 4-7 (20%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

ß-hCG cutoff values have a potential for predicting a successful medical treatment of TEP.

Life-threatening complications following multidose methotrexate for medical management of ectopic pregnancy

A 25-year-old primigravida was diagnosed to be suffering from unruptured ectopic pregnancy. The serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin levels were 2851 mIU/l and the ectopic gestational sac was 2.7×2.7 cm without any fetal pole. It was decided to manage her by expectant therapy. But she received medical therapy with multidose methotrexate because of misinterpretation of expectant therapy as medical therapy. She suffered from methotrexate toxicity, which manifested as high-grade fever, vomiting, melena, oral ulcerations, pneumonitis, subconjunctival haemorrhages and skin pigmentation. She developed severe third space fluid collection and shock, which was mistaken for rupture ectopic gestation. Her haematological picture showed severe neutropaenia and thrombocytopaenia which confirmed the clinical picture to be due to methotrexate toxicity. She also developed septicaemia and candidal infection secondary to immunosuppression. She was managed in intensive care unit with ventilatory support, high-dose leucovorin and injection filgastrim. She responded well to the therapy with dramatic recovery in 4 days.

Fertility after tubal ectopic pregnancy: results of a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the reproductive outcome after an ectopic pregnancy (EP) based on the type of treatment used, and to identify predictive factors of spontaneous fertility.

DESIGN

Observational population based-study.

SETTING

Regional sistry.

PATIENT(S)

One thousand sixty-four women registered from 1992 to 2008.

INTERVENTION(S)

Laparoscopic (radical or conservative), or medical treatment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Epidemiologic characteristics, clinical presentation, treatments performed, reproductive outcome, recurrence.

RESULT(S)

The 24-month cumulative rate of intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) was 67% after salpingectomy, 76% after salpingostomy, and 76% after medical treatment. IUP rate was lower after radical treatment compared with conservative treatments in univariable analysis. In multivariate analysis, IUP rate was significantly lower for patients >35 years old or with history of infertility or tubal disease. For them, IUP rate was significantly higher after conservative treatment compared with salpingectomy. The 2-year cumulative rate of recurrences was 18.5% after salpingostomy or salpingectomy and 25.5% after medical treatment. History of infertility or of previous live birth would be protective, in contrast to history of voluntary termination of pregnancy.

CONCLUSION(S)

Conservative strategy seems to be preferred, whenever possible, to preserve patients' fertility without increasing the risk of recurrence. The choice between conservative treatments does not rely on subsequent fertility, but more likely on their own indications and therapeutic effectiveness. Risk factors of recurrence could be considered for secondary prevention.

[Risk factors for recurrence of ectopic pregnancy]

OBJECTIVES

Investigate and identify the risk factors influencing the recurrence of ectopic pregnancies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The Auvergne ectopic pregnancy registry data were analyzed from 1992 to 2008. The appearance of a recurrence was studied among 1108 women from 18 to 44 years old, who attempted to conceive again.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixteen repeated ectopic pregnancies occurred (10.5 %) during the period under study. The rate of recurrence was significantly higher among women who had a history of voluntary termination of pregnancy (P=0.01). Conversely, fewer recurrences (P=0.01 and 0.0478) occurred among women having a history of infertility or previous live birth. The treatment for ectopic pregnancy, whether it is conservative or radical laparoscopic, or medical with methotrexate did not significantly influence the recurrence rate (P=0.86).

CONCLUSION

Reproductive history appears to involve the risk of repeated ectopic pregnancy and must be taken into account in their secondary prevention. As for the choice of treatment, the risk of recurrence does not seem to constitute a decisive argument.