High singleton live birth rate confirmed after ovulation induction in women with anovulatory polycystic ovary syndrome: validation of a prediction model for clinical practice

Progress of the application clinical prediction model in polycystic ovary syndrome

Clinical prediction models play an important role in the field of medicine. These can help predict the probability of an individual suffering from disease, complications, and treatment outcomes by applying specific methodologies. Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common disease with a high incidence rate, huge heterogeneity, short- and long-term complications, and complex treatments. In this systematic review study, we reviewed the progress of clinical prediction models in PCOS patients, including diagnosis and prediction models for PCOS complications and treatment outcomes. We aimed to provide ideas for medical researchers and clues for the management of PCOS. In the future, models with poor accuracy can be greatly improved by adding well-known parameters and validations, which will further expand our understanding of PCOS in terms of precision medicine. By developing a series of predictive models, we can make the definition of PCOS more accurate, which can improve the diagnosis of PCOS and reduce the likelihood of false positives and false negatives. It will also help discover complications earlier and treatment outcomes being known earlier, which can result in better outcomes for women with PCOS.

Maternal and Child Health, Non-Communicable Diseases and Metabolites

Mothers influence the health and disease trajectories of their children, particularly during the critical developmental windows of fetal and neonatal life reflecting the gestational-fetal and lactational-neonatal phases. As children grow and develop, they are exposed to various stimuli and insults, such as metabolites, that shape their physiology and metabolism to impact their health. Non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and mental illness, have high global prevalence and are increasing in incidence. Non-communicable diseases often overlap with maternal and child health. The maternal milieu shapes progeny outcomes, and some diseases, such as gestational diabetes and preeclampsia, have gestational origins. Metabolite aberrations occur from diets and physiological changes. Differential metabolite profiles can predict the onset of non-communicable diseases and therefore inform prevention and/or better treatment. In mothers and children, understanding the metabolite influence on health and disease can provide insights for maintaining maternal physiology and sustaining optimal progeny health over the life course. The role and interplay of metabolites on physiological systems and signaling pathways in shaping health and disease present opportunities for biomarker discovery and identifying novel therapeutic agents, particularly in the context of maternal and child health, and non-communicable diseases.

Ovulation induction in anovulatory infertility is obsolete

Women with polycystic ovary syndrome make up the vast majority of patients with anovulatory infertility. The commonly accepted treatment guidelines recommend ovulation induction for timed intercourse as the first-line treatment. After a 2-year treatment period, the cumulative pregnancy rates with a singleton live-born baby reached 71% and 78% in two prospective studies. Despite aiming for monofollicular growth, multifollicular responses with subsequent multiple/higher order multiple pregnancies are a dreaded risk associated with ovarian induction. However, the lengthy treatment, the increase of maternal age and the psychological effects of 'obligatory intercourse' are also factors challenging the concept of ovarian induction as the first treatment approach in anovulatory infertility. Nowadays, individualized IVF treatment with cycle segmentation, freeze-all strategies and single-embryo transfers in frozen embryo transfer cycles dramatically reduces the risk of multiple pregnancies, and a cumulative pregnancy rate of 83% can be achieved over three complete cycles, thereby reducing exposure to fertility medication and time to pregnancy. Although on first sight ovarian induction might present the easier and less costly approach, efficient and individualized IVF treatments with low complication rates and the chance of preventing multiple pregnancies challenge this concept, and it seems that the time has come to abandon ovarian induction in anovulatory infertility.

Predicting pregnancy chances leading to term live birth in oligo/anovulatory women diagnosed with PCOS

RESEARCH QUESTION

Which patient features predict the time to pregnancy (TTP) leading to term live birth in infertile women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)?

DESIGN

Prospective cohort follow-up study was completed, in which initial standardized phenotyping was conducted at two Dutch university medical centres from January 2004 to January 2014. Data were linked to the Netherlands Perinatal Registry to obtain pregnancy outcomes for each participant. All women underwent treatment according to a standardized protocol, starting with ovulation induction as first-line treatment. Predictors of pregnancies (leading to term live births) during the first year after PCOS diagnosis were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 1779 consecutive women diagnosed with PCOS between January 2004 and January 2014 were included. In the first year following screening, 659 (37%) women with PCOS attained a pregnancy leading to term birth (≥37 weeks of gestational age). A higher chance of pregnancy was associated with race, smoking, body mass index (BMI), insulin, total testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) concentrations (c-statistic = 0.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Predictors of an increased chance of a live birth include White race, no current smoking, lower BMI, insulin and total testosterone concentrations, and higher SHBG concentrations. This study presents a nomogram to predict the chances of achieving a pregnancy (leading to a term live birth) within 1 year of treatment.

Nomogram for the cumulative live birth in women undergoing the first IVF cycle: Base on 26, 689 patients in China

OBJECTIVE

Predictive models of the cumulative live birth (CLB) in women undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment are limited. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram for the CLB in women undergoing the first IVF cycle.

METHODS

Based on a cross-sectional study in assisted reproduction center of Northwest Women's and Children's Hospital, 26,689 Chinese patients who underwent IVF treatment was used to develop and validate a prediction model for the CLB. Among those participants, 70% were randomly assigned to the training set (18,601 patients), while the remaining 30% were assigned to the validation set (8,088 patients). A nomogram was constructed based on the results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The model performance was evaluated using the C statistic and the calibration performance was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) χ² statistics and calibration plots.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that female age, female body mass index (BMI), tubal factor infertility, male infertility, uterine factor infertility, unexplained infertility, antral follicle count (AFC) and basal serum follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) were significant factors for CLB in women undergoing the first IVF cycle. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the prediction model was 0.676 (95% CI 0.668 to 0.684) in the training group. The validation set showed possibly helpful discrimination with an AUC of 0.672 (95% CI 0.660 to 0.684). Additionally, the prediction model had a good calibration (HL χ² = 8.240, P=0.410).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a nomogram to predict CLB in women undergoing the first IVF cycle using a single center database in China. The validated nomogram to predict CLB could be a potential tool for IVF counselling.

Estimation Methods for Infertility Treatment Success: Comparison of Four Methods

Objective: To analyze and compare four methods for estimating the chance of treatment success in infertile couples.

Materials and methods: In a retrospective cohort study, information on demographic and clinical features, including age, body mass index (BMI), duration of infertility, semen analysis, previous history of treatment and clinical examination of infertile couples were analyzed. Treatment success (childbearing) was calculated with four methods as live birth ratio, conditional probability and survival analysis (life table and Kaplan-Meyer method) and results are compared.

Results: The fertility ratio for the first treatment cycle was 29.72% which decreased to 23.13% by total treatment cycles. The success rate was 75.4%. With conditional probability calculation at the end of the five treatment cycles. With the life table method in a five-year period, the probability for live birth was 78% and by Kaplan-Meyer method 73.1% and the median of treatment time was 562 days.

Conclusion: Calculation of infertility treatment success rate by only simple live birth ratio of childbearing couples is associated with underestimation. Using the conditional probability method reduces that underestimation, but it is not considered the censored cases in the treatments. It seems life table (as a proxy of survival analysis) presents the closest estimation to clinical facts with considering the repetition of the treatment cycle and the duration of treatment.

Metabolic syndrome in obesity: treatment success and adverse pregnancy outcomes with ovulation induction in polycystic ovary syndrome

BACKGROUND

Obesity is common in women with polycystic ovary syndrome. polycystic ovary syndrome and obesity are associated with reduced fertility. The effect of metabolic syndrome on the success of infertility treatment and pregnancy outcomes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome undergoing ovulation induction has not been investigated.

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this study were to determine the associations of metabolic syndrome on the rate of live birth after ovulation induction and pregnancy complications in obese women with polycystic ovary syndrome and determine whether there is a difference in outcomes concerning specific medications used for ovulation induction.

STUDY DESIGN

This prospective cohort analysis used data collected from participants in the Pregnancy in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome II clinical trial conducted by the Reproductive Medicine Network. In the Pregnancy in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome II trial, 750 women with polycystic ovary syndrome and infertility were randomized to either clomiphene citrate or letrozole for ovulation induction for 1 to 5 cycles or until pregnancy occurred. Cox regression and modified Poisson regression, chi-square test, and Student t test or Wilcoxon test were used in this study. Outcomes of interest were rates of live birth and clinical pregnancy and pregnancy complications. Having metabolic syndrome was defined by the presence of at least 3 of 5 cardiometabolic risk factors (waist circumference of >88 cm, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol of <50 mg/dL, triglycerides of ≥150 mg/dL, systolic blood pressure of ≥130 or diastolic blood pressure of ≥85 mm Hg, and fasting glucose of >100 mg/dL). In addition, we used a continuous metabolic syndrome z score. Body mass index categories were defined as normal (body mass index of <25 kg/m²), high (25 to 35 kg/m²), and very high (>35 kg/m²).

RESULTS

As illustrated in the Table, early pregnancy losses showed no difference by metabolic syndrome. Fewer women achieved a clinical pregnancy (20.5% vs 29.7%; P=.007) or had a live birth (16.5% vs 27%; P=.001) in the presence of metabolic syndrome. Early pregnancy losses showed no difference by metabolic syndrome status. However, at least 1 pregnancy complication occurred more often with metabolic syndrome: 61.9% (26 of 42 cases) with metabolic syndrome vs 44.4% (59 of 133 cases) (P=.05) without metabolic syndrome. Gestational diabetes mellitus (35.7% vs 18.2%; P=.02) and macrosomia (21.4% vs 8.3%; P=.02) were more common in the presence of metabolic syndrome. After adjustment for other potential confounders, the rate ratio for live births for a 1-unit change in the metabolic syndrome z score was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-1.00; P=.04) for those whose body mass index was 25 to 35 kg/m². For the very high body mass index subgroup (>35 kg/m²), the independent effects of metabolic syndrome from obesity were harder to discern. The rate of live birth was higher with the use of letrozole, although metabolic syndrome had a different detrimental effect concerning the medication given. The overall incidence of pregnancy complications was high (approximately 49%) in the Pregnancy in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome II trial and the 2 medications. Letrozole was associated with more obstetrical complications in the presence of metabolic syndrome, and clomiphene was associated with a lower rate of live birth rate when metabolic syndrome was present.

CONCLUSION

Metabolic syndrome is a risk factor that lowers the rate of live birth after ovulation for women with polycystic ovary syndrome, independent of obesity, and it is particularly associated with a lower rate of live birth for women using clomiphene compared with women using letrozole. In addition, metabolic syndrome is a risk factor for pregnancy complications for women with obesity using letrozole. Furthermore, having metabolic syndrome is a risk factor for gestational diabetes mellitus and macrosomia.

Gonadotrophins versus clomiphene citrate with or without IUI in women with normogonadotropic anovulation and clomiphene failure: a cost-effectiveness analysis

STUDY QUESTION

Are six cycles of ovulation induction with gonadotrophins more cost-effective than six cycles of ovulation induction with clomiphene citrate (CC) with or without IUI in normogonadotropic anovulatory women not pregnant after six ovulatory cycles with CC?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Both gonadotrophins and IUI are more expensive when compared with CC and intercourse, and gonadotrophins are more effective than CC.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

In women with normogonadotropic anovulation who ovulate but do not conceive after six cycles with CC, medication is usually switched to gonadotrophins, with or without IUI. The cost-effectiveness of these changes in policy is unknown.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We performed an economic evaluation of ovulation induction with gonadotrophins compared with CC with or without IUI in a two-by-two factorial multicentre randomized controlled trial in normogonadotropic anovulatory women not pregnant after six ovulatory cycles with CC. Between December 2008 and December 2015 women were allocated to six cycles with gonadotrophins plus IUI, six cycles with gonadotrophins plus intercourse, six cycles with CC plus IUI or six cycles with CC plus intercourse. The primary outcome was conception leading to a live birth achieved within 8 months of randomization.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis on direct medical costs. We calculated the direct medical costs of ovulation induction with gonadotrophins versus CC and of IUI versus intercourse in six subsequent cycles. We included costs of medication, cycle monitoring, interventions, and pregnancy leading to live birth. Resource use was collected from the case report forms and unit costs were derived from various sources. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) for gonadotrophins compared to CC and for IUI compared to intercourse. We used non-parametric bootstrap resampling to investigate the effect of uncertainty in our estimates. The analysis was performed according to the intention-to-treat principle.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

We allocated 666 women in total to gonadotrophins and IUI (n = 166), gonadotrophins and intercourse (n = 165), CC and IUI (n = 163), or CC and intercourse (n = 172). Mean direct medical costs per woman receiving gonadotrophins or CC were €4495 versus €3006 (cost difference of €1475 (95% CI: €1457-€1493)). Live birth rates were 52% in women allocated to gonadotrophins and 41% in those allocated to CC (relative risk (RR) 1.24:95% CI: 1.05-1.46). The ICER was €15 258 (95% CI: €8721 to €63 654) per additional live birth with gonadotrophins. Mean direct medical costs per woman allocated to IUI or intercourse were €4497 versus €3005 (cost difference of €1510 (95% CI: €1492-€1529)). Live birth rates were 49% in women allocated to IUI and 43% in those allocated to intercourse (RR = 1.14:95% CI: 0.97-1.35). The ICER was €24 361 (95% CI: €-11 290 to €85 172) per additional live birth with IUI.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

We allowed participating hospitals to use their local protocols for ovulation induction and IUI, which may have led to variation in costs, but which increases generalizability. Indirect costs generated by transportation or productivity loss were not included. We did not evaluate letrozole, which is potentially more effective than CC.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Gonadotrophins are more effective, but more expensive than CC, therefore, the use of gonadotrophins in women with normogonadotropic anovulation who have not conceived after six ovulatory CC cycles depends on society's willingness to pay for an additional child. In view of the uncertainty around the cost-effectiveness estimate of IUI, these data are not sufficient to make recommendations on the use of IUI in these women. In countries where ovulation induction regimens are reimbursed, policy makers and health care professionals may use our results in their guidelines.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This trial was funded by the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw number: 80-82310-97-12067). The Eudract number for this trial is 2008-006171-73. The Sponsor's Protocol Code Number is P08-40. CBLA reports unrestricted grant support from Merck and Ferring. BWM is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548) and reports consultancy for Merck, ObsEva and Guerbet.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NTR1449.

PCOS and pregnancy: a review of available therapies to improve the outcome of pregnancy in women with polycystic ovary syndrome

INTRODUCTION

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common cause of female infertility affecting multiple aspects of a women's health.

AREAS COVERED

The aim of this review is to summarize the existing evidence on the treatment of PCOS patients and to examine the actual available therapies to overcome the problem of infertility and improve the outcome of pregnancy. We analyse different treatment strategies such as lifestyle modification, bariatric surgery, insulin sensitizing agents, inositol, clomiphene citrate (CC), aromatase inhibitors, gonadotrophins, laparoscopic ovarian drilling, and assisted reproductive techniques (ART).

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Lifestyle modification is the best initial management for obese PCOS patients seeking pregnancy and insulin sensitizing agents seem to have an important role in treating insulin resistance. Up to now, CC maintains a central role in the induction of ovulation and it has been confirmed as the first-line treatment; the use of gonadotrophins is considered the second-line in CC resistant patients; laparoscopic ovarian drilling is an alternative to gonadotrophins in patients who need laparoscopy for another reason. However, in anovulatory patients, ART represents the only possible alternative to obtain pregnancy. Larger and well-designed studies are needed to clarify the best way to improve the outcome of pregnancy in PCOS women.

Gonadotrophins versus clomifene citrate with or without intrauterine insemination in women with normogonadotropic anovulation and clomifene failure (M-OVIN): a randomised, two-by-two factorial trial

BACKGROUND

In many countries, clomifene citrate is the treatment of first choice in women with normogonadotropic anovulation (ie, absent or irregular ovulation). If these women ovulate but do not conceive after several cycles with clomifene citrate, medication is usually switched to gonadotrophins, with or without intrauterine insemination. We aimed to assess whether switching to gonadotrophins is more effective than continuing clomifene citrate, and whether intrauterine insemination is more effective than intercourse.

METHODS

In this two-by-two factorial multicentre randomised clinical trial, we recruited women aged 18 years and older with normogonadotropic anovulation not pregnant after six ovulatory cycles of clomifene citrate (maximum of 150 mg daily for 5 days) from 48 Dutch hospitals. Women were randomly assigned using a central password-protected internet-based randomisation programme to receive six cycles with gonadotrophins plus intrauterine insemination, six cycles with gonadotrophins plus intercourse, six cycles with clomifene citrate plus intrauterine insemination, or six cycles with clomifene citrate plus intercourse. Clomifene citrate dosages varied from 50 to 150 mg daily orally and gonadotrophin starting dose was 50 or 75 IU daily subcutaneously. The primary outcome was conception leading to livebirth within 8 months after randomisation defined as any baby born alive after a gestational age beyond 24 weeks. Primary analysis was by intention to treat. We made two comparisons, one in which gonadotrophins were compared with clomifene citrate and one in which intrauterine insemination was compared with intercourse. This completed study is registered with the Netherlands Trial Register, number NTR1449.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 8, 2008, and Dec 16, 2015, we randomly assigned 666 women to gonadotrophins and intrauterine insemination (n=166), gonadotrophins and intercourse (n=165), clomifene citrate and intrauterine insemination (n=163), or clomifene citrate and intercourse (n=172). Women allocated to gonadotrophins had more livebirths than those allocated to clomifene citrate (167 [52%] of 327 women vs 138 [41%] of 334 women, relative risk [RR] 1·24 [95% CI 1·05-1·46]; p=0·0124). Addition of intrauterine insemination did not increase livebirths compared with intercourse (161 [49%] vs 144 [43%], RR 1·14 [95% CI 0·97-1·35]; p=0·1152). Multiple pregnancy rates for the two comparisons were low and not different. There were three adverse events: one child with congenital abnormalities and one stillbirth in two women treated with clomifene citrate, and one immature delivery due to cervical insufficiency in a woman treated with gonadotrophins.

INTERPRETATION

In women with normogonadotropic anovulation and clomifene citrate failure, a switch of treatment to gonadotrophins increased the chance of livebirth over treatment with clomifene citrate; there was no evidence that addition of intrauterine insemination does so.

FUNDING

The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development.

The management of anovulatory infertility in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: an analysis of the evidence to support the development of global WHO guidance

BACKGROUND

Here we describe the consensus guideline methodology, summarise the evidence-based recommendations we provided to the World Health Organisation (WHO) for their consideration in the development of global guidance and present a narrative review on the management of anovulatory infertility in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE

The aim of this paper was to present an evidence base for the management of anovulatory PCOS.

SEARCH METHODS

The evidence to support providing recommendations involved a collaborative process for: (i) identification of priority questions and critical outcomes, (ii) retrieval of up-to-date evidence and exiting guidelines, (iii) assessment and synthesis of the evidence and (iv) the formulation of draft recommendations to be used for reaching consensus with a wide range of global stakeholders. For each draft recommendation, the methodologist evaluated the quality of the supporting evidence that was then graded as very low, low, moderate or high for consideration during consensus.

OUTCOMES

Evidence was synthesized and we made recommendations across the definition of PCOS including hyperandrogenism, menstrual cycle regulation and ovarian assessment. Metabolic features and the impact of ethnicity were covered. Management includes lifestyle changes, bariatric surgery, pharmacotherapy (including clomiphene citrate (CC), aromatase inhibitors, metformin and gonadotropins), as well as laparoscopic surgery. In-vitro fertilization (IVF) was considered as were the risks of ovulation induction and of pregnancy in PCOS. Approximately 80% of women who suffer from anovulatory infertility have PCOS. Lifestyle intervention is recommended first in women who are obese largely on the basis of general health benefits. Bariatric surgery can be considered where the body mass index (BMI) is ≥35 kg/m2 and lifestyle therapy has failed. Carefully conducted and monitored pharmacological ovulation induction can achieve good cumulative pregnancy rates and multiple pregnancy rates can be minimized with adherence to recommended protocols. CC should be first-line pharmacotherapy for ovulation induction and letrozole can also be used as first-line therapy. Metformin alone has limited benefits in improving live birth rates. Gonadotropins and laparoscopic surgery can be used as second-line treatment. There is no clear evidence for efficacy of acupuncture or herbal mixtures in women with PCOS. For women with PCOS who fail lifestyle and ovulation induction therapy or have additional infertility factors, IVF can be used with the safer gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist protocol. If a GnRH-agonist protocol is used, metformin as an adjunct may reduce the risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. Patients should be informed of the potential side effects of ovulation induction agents and of IVF on the foetus, and of the risks of multiple pregnancy. Increased risks for the mother during pregnancy and for the child, including the exacerbating impact of obesity on adverse outcomes, should also be discussed.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS

This guidance generation and evidence-synthesis analysis has been conducted in a manner to be considered for global applicability for the safe administration of ovulation induction for anovulatory women with PCOS.

Endocrine and cardiometabolic cord blood characteristics of offspring born to mothers with and without polycystic ovary syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To compare the endocrine and cardiometabolic cord blood characteristics of offspring of mothers with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) with those of healthy controls.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional case control study.

SETTING

University medical centers.

PATIENT(S)

Offspring from mothers with PCOS (n = 61) and healthy controls (n = 82).

INTERVENTION(S)

Cord blood withdrawal from neonates.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Cord blood estradiol, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS), testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, free androgen index (FAI), insulin, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, c-reactive protein, adiponectin, and leptin.

RESULT(S)

Androstenedione and leptin concentrations were increased in the offspring of women with PCOS compared with the controls: androstenedione median 2.9 (interquartile range [IQR] 2.3-3.9) nmol/L vs. 2.2 [IQR 1.6-2.7] nmol/L; and leptin median 13.6 [IQR 8.3-22.9] μg/L vs. 9.8 [IQR 6.0-16.5] μg/L. After adjusting for maternal and pregnancy-related confounders (such as maternal age, gestational age, birth weight), androstenedione appeared associated with PCOS in both male (relative change 1.36 [1.04; 1.78]) and female offspring (relative change 1.40 [1.08; 1.82]). Similarly, in male offspring the leptin concentrations appeared associated with PCOS after correction for confounders (relative change 1.55 [1.12; 2.14]). After correction for multiple testing, these associations attenuated.

CONCLUSION(S)

Observed results suggest that androstenedione concentrations are increased in the cord blood of male and female offspring of women with PCOS, although this requires confirmation. This finding would support the hypothesis that a maternal hyperandrogenic environment during pregnancy in women with PCOS may predispose their offspring to fetal hyperandrogenism. The potential associations between fetal hyperandrogenism and long-term health effects remain to be elucidated.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT00821379.

Mono-ovulation in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a clinical review on ovulation induction

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) affects 5-10% of women of reproductive age and is the most common cause of anovulatory infertility. The treatment approaches to ovulation induction vary in efficacy, treatment duration and patient friendliness. The aim was to determine the most efficient, evidence-based method to achieve mono-ovulation in women diagnosed with PCOS. Publications in English providing information on treatment, efficacy and complication rates were included until September 2015. Systematic reviews, meta-analyses and randomized controlled trials were favoured over cohort and retrospective studies. Clomiphene citrate is recommended as primary treatment for PCOS-related infertility. It induces ovulation in three out of four patients, the risk of multiple pregnancies is modest and the treatment is simple and inexpensive. Gonadotrophins are highly efficient in a low-dose step-up regimen. Ovulation rates are improved by lifestyle interventions in overweight women. Metformin may improve the menstrual cycle within 1-3 months, but does not improve the live birth rate. Letrozole is effective for ovulation induction, but is an off-label drug in many countries. Ovulation induction in women with PCOS should be individualized with regard to weight, treatment efficacy and patient preferences with the aim of achieving mono-ovulation and subsequently the birth of a singleton baby.

Placental characteristics in women with polycystic ovary syndrome

STUDY QUESTION

Are macroscopic and microscopic placental characteristics in a heterogeneous group of women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) different from those of a low-risk general population?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Women with PCOS have significantly different microscopic placental characteristics compared with control women, independently from pregnancy complications.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Non-obese women with PCOS who conceived spontaneously have a significantly reduced placental volume and weight, with more chronic villitis and intervillositis compared with healthy controls.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A subset of a large prospective cohort study of pregnant women with PCOS was used. Healthy (low-risk) women who delivered at term after an uncomplicated pregnancy were used as the reference population. The placentas of 73 women with PCOS were analysed and compared with 209 placentas of healthy women.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Placentas were collected after delivery from women with PCOS who were followed from prior to conception until delivery. The placentas were macroscopically and microscopically analysed and compared with placentas of healthy women with either a spontaneous start of labour who delivered at term or who had an elective Caesarean section.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

After adjusting for potential confounders, placentas from women with PCOS showed more chorioamnionitis (P < 0.001), funisitis (P = 0.019), villitis (P = 0.045), thrombosis (P = 0.018), infarction (P = 0.010), villous immaturity (P = 0.009) and nucleated fetal red blood cells (P < 0.001). In a subgroup analysis, among women with and without pregnancy complications within the PCOS group, only the occurrence of thrombosis was increased in pregnancies complicated by pregnancy-induced hypertension or pre-eclampsia (30%, versus 0% in gestational diabetes pregnancies and 13% in uncomplicated pregnancies; P = 0.008).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

There might be a small proportion of women with PCOS in the reference group, since this group was not screened for PCOS. As a result, the observed difference may be an underestimation of the true difference. Placentas were stored for up to 72 h at 4°C, this is common practice but some degenerative changes cannot be ruled out absolutely. Also, there is possibility that baseline differences between the groups may in part explain some of the differences in placental pathology.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our findings suggest that, in general, women with PCOS can have placental alterations associated with an increased hypoxic state, which seems not to be caused by the increased incidence of pregnancy complications.

Identification and replication of prediction models for ovulation, pregnancy and live birth in infertile women with polycystic ovary syndrome

STUDY QUESTION

Can we build and validate predictive models for ovulation and pregnancy outcomes in infertile women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)?

SUMMARY ANSWER

We were able to develop and validate a predictive model for pregnancy outcomes in women with PCOS using simple clinical and biochemical criteria particularly duration of attempting conception, which was the most consistent predictor among all considered factors for pregnancy outcomes.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Predictive models for ovulation and pregnancy outcomes in infertile women with polycystic ovary syndrome have been reported, but such models require validation.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, AND DURATION

This is a secondary analysis of the data from the Pregnancy in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome I and II (PPCOS-I and -II) trials. Both trials were double-blind, randomized clinical trials that included 626 and 750 infertile women with PCOS, respectively. PPCOS-I participants were randomized to either clomiphene citrate (CC), metformin, or their combination, and PPCOS-II participants to either letrozole or CC for up to five treatment cycles.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, AND METHODS

Linear logistic regression models were fitted using treatment, BMI, and other published variables as predictors of ovulation, conception, clinical pregnancy, and live birth as the outcome one at a time. We first evaluated previously reported significant predictors, and then constructed new prediction models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed and the area under the curves (AUCs) was calculated to compare performance using different models and data. Chi-square tests were used to examine the goodness-of-fit and prediction power of logistic regression model.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Predictive factors were similar between PPCOS-I and II, but the two participant samples differed statistically significantly but the differences were clinically minor on key baseline characteristics and hormone levels. Women in PPCOS-II had an overall more severe PCOS phenotype than women in PPCOS-I. The clinically minor but statistically significant differences may be due to the large sample sizes. Younger age, lower baseline free androgen index and insulin, shorter duration of attempting conception, and higher baseline sex hormone-binding globulin significantly predicted at least one pregnancy outcome. The ROC curves (with AUCs of 0.66-0.76) and calibration plots and chi-square tests indicated stable predictive power of the identified variables (P-values ≥0.07 for all goodness-of-fit and validation tests).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

This is a secondary analysis. Although our primary objective was to confirm previously reported results and identify new predictors of ovulation and pregnancy outcomes among PPCOS-II participants, our approach is exploratory and warrants further replication.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

We have largely confirmed the predictors that were identified in the PPCOS-I trial. However, we have also revealed new predictors, particularly the role of smoking. While a history of ever smoking was not a significant predictor for live birth, a closer look at current, quit, and never smoking revealed that current smoking was a significant risk factor.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Grants U10 HD27049, U10 HD38992, U10HD055925, U10 HD39005, U10 HD33172, U10 HD38998, U10 HD055936, U10 HD055942, and U10 HD055944; and U54-HD29834. Heilongjiang University of Chinese Medicine Grants 051277 and B201005. R.S.L. reports receiving consulting fees from Euroscreen, AstraZeneca, Clarus Therapeutics, and Takeda, and grant support from Ferring, Astra Zeneca, and Toba. K.R.H. reports receiving grant support from Roche Diagnostics and Ferring Pharmascience. G.C. reports receiving Honorarium and grant support from Abbvie Pharmaceuticals and Bayer Pharmaceuticals. M.P.D. holds equity from Advanced Reproductive Care Inc. and DS Biotech, receives fees from Advanced Reproductive Care Inc., Actamax, Auxogyn, ZSX Medical, Halt Medical, and Neomed, and receives grant support from Boehringer-Ingelheim, Abbott, and BioSante, Ferring Pharmaceuticals, and EMD Serono. H.Z. receives research support from the Chinese 1000-scholar plan. Others report no disclosures other than NIH grant support.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

PPCOS-I and -II were respectively registered at Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00719186 and NCT00719186.

How long should we continue clomiphene citrate in anovulatory women?

STUDY QUESTION

What is the effectiveness of continued treatment with clomiphene citrate (CC) in women with World Health Organization (WHO) type II anovulation who have had at least six ovulatory cycles with CC but did not conceive?

SUMMARY ANSWER

When women continued CC after six treatment cycles, the cumulative incidence rate of the ongoing pregnancy rate was 54% (95% CI 37-78%) for cycles 7-12.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

If women with WHO type II anovulation fail to conceive with CC within six ovulatory cycles, guidelines advise switching to gonadotrophins, which have a high risk of multiple gestation and are expensive. It is however not clear what success rate could be achieved by continued treatment with CC.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We performed a retrospective cohort study of women with WHO II anovulation who visited the fertility clinics of five hospitals in the Netherlands between 1994 and 2010. We included women treated with CC who had had at least six ovulatory cycles without successful conception (n = 114) after which CC was continued using dosages varying from 50 to 150 mg per day for 5 days.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Follow-up was a total of 12 treatment cycles. Primary outcome was the cumulative incidence rate of an ongoing pregnancy at the end of treatment.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

We recruited 114 women that had ovulated on CC for at least six cycles but had not conceived. Of these 114 women, 35 (31%) had an ongoing pregnancy resulting in a cumulative incidence rate of an ongoing pregnancy of 54% after 7-12 treatment cycles with CC.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Limitations of our study are its retrospective approach.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Randomized trials comparing continued treatment with CC with the relatively established second line treatment with gonadotrophins are justified. In the meantime, we suggest to only begin this less convenient and more expensive treatment for women who do not conceive after 12 ovulatory cycles with CC.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

None.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Not applicable.

Ovulation induction in women with polycystic ovary syndrome

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common cause of anovulatory infertility. There are multiple ways to induce ovulation in PCOS patients, which will eventually provide a successful live birth. Each of these treatments varies in aggressiveness and effectiveness. Ranging from lifestyle modifications, through insulin-sensitizing agents, selective estrogen receptor modulators, aromatase inhibitors, gonadotropins, to laparoscopic ovarian drilling and assisted reproductive techniques, each method achieves ovulation induction through different mechanisms of action. This review provides a description and specific characteristics of the different methods used for ovulation induction which can help to design a personalized approach to each PCOS patient, and a general stepwise approach to ovulation induction in these patients.