Probabilistic modelling of Escherichia coli concentration in raw milk under hot weather conditions

Does climate change transform military medicine and defense medical support?

Background

Climate change has effects on multiple aspects of human life, such as access to food and water, expansion of endemic diseases as well as an increase of natural disasters and related diseases. The objective of this review is to summarize the current knowledge on climate change effects on military occupational health, military healthcare in a deployed setting, and defense medical logistics.

Methods

Online databases and registers were searched on August 22^nd, 2022 and 348 papers retrieved, published between 2000 and 2022, from which we selected 8 publications that described climate effects on military health. Papers were clustered according to a modified theoretical framework for climate change effects on health, and relevant items from each paper were summarized.

Results

During the last decades a growing body of climate change related publications was identified, which report that climate change has a significant impact on human physiology, mental health, water- and vector borne infectious diseases, as well as air pollution. However, regarding the specific climate effects on military health the level of evidence is low. The effects on defense medical logistics include vulnerabilities in the cold supply chain, in medical devices functioning, in need for air conditioning, and in fresh water supply.

Conclusions

Climate change may transform both the theoretical framework and practical implementations in military medicine and military healthcare systems. There are significant knowledge gaps on climate change effects on the health of military personnel in operations of both combat and non-combat nature, alerting the need for prevention and mitigation of climate-related health issues. Further research within the fields of disaster and military medicine is needed to explore this novel field. As climate effects on humans and the medical supply chain may degrade military capability, significant investments in military medical research and development are needed.

Quantifying current and future raw milk losses due to bovine mastitis on European dairy farms under climate change scenarios

Bovine mastitis is an infectious disease that causes udder inflammation and is responsible for raw milk losses across European dairy farms. It is associated with reduced cow milk yield and contributes to elevated Somatic Cell Count (SCC) in raw milk. Staphylococcus aureus is one of the most prevalent mastitis pathogens that cause subclinical and clinical mastitis and can be present as a coloniser bacterium in cows. Climate change and geographical variability may influence the prevalence of this pathogen. Thus, this research aimed to predict the raw milk losses in three major dairy-producing regions across Europe (i.e. Mediterranean, Atlantic and Continental) under climate change scenarios. An exposure assessment model and a stepwise probabilistic model were developed to predict potential cow milk yield reduction, S. aureus and SCC concentrations in the bulk tank milk at dairy farms. Baseline (i.e. present) and future climate change scenarios were defined, and the resultant concentrations of SCC and S. aureus were compared to the actual European regulatory limits. Across the three regions, raw milk losses ranged from 1.06% to 2.15% in the baseline. However, they increased up to 3.21% in the climate change scenarios when no on-farm improvements were considered. Regarding geographical variation, the highest potential milk losses were reported for the Mediterranean and the lowest for the Continental region. Concerning the fulfilment of the regulatory limits, the mean of S. aureus and SCC levels in milk did not exceed them either in any region or scenario. Nevertheless, when looking at percentiles, the 10th percentile remained above the limits of S. aureus in Atlantic and Mediterranean, but not in the Continental region. The findings provide a snapshot of climate change impacts on raw milk losses due to mastitis. They will allow farmers to detect weaknesses and prepare them to develop adaptation plans to climate change.