Uncertainty about the true source. A note on the likelihood ratio at the activity level

A template Bayesian network for combining forensic evidence on an item with an uncertain relation to the disputed activities

Most of the forensic evidence evaluations given activity level propositions are centered around an item which is assumed to be linked to an alleged activity. However, the relation between an item of interest and an activity may be contested. This study presents a template Bayesian network (BN) for the evaluation of transfer evidence given activity level propositions considering a dispute about the relation of an item to one or more activities. The template BN includes a set of association propositions that enables the combined evaluation of evidence concerning alleged activities of the suspect and evidence concerning the use of an alleged item in those activities. Since the two types of evidence are often from different forensic disciplines, the BN is especially useful in interdisciplinary casework. Throughout the paper, we use a fictive case example that captures the essence of cases for which the template model can be used. The template BN provides a flexible starting point that can be adapted to specific case situations and supports structured probabilistic reasoning by a forensic scientist.

A generalised Bayes' factor formula for evidence evaluation under activity level propositions: Variations around a fibres scenario

Generalised Bayes' factors and associated Bayesian networks are developed for the transfer of extrinsic evidence at the activity level, developments that extend previous work on activity level evaluation. A strategy for the assessment of extrinsic evidence is developed in stages with progressive increases in complexity. The final development is illustrated with an example involving fibres from clothing. This provides a list of factors involved in the consideration of a transfer case with activity level propositions and their roles in the determination of evidential value.

A study of background population of fibres on knife blades

Edged weapons are frequently used to commit violent crimes (e.g., homicides, assaults or sequestrations). Following a stabbing, a fibre transfer might occur from the damaged fabric to the blade. It is crucial to investigate whether the target fibres were transferred to the blade as a result of the stabbing and if they are in association with the offence or whether they originate from another unrelated event (i.e., part of the background). The aim of this study is to explore the background population of fibres recovered on knife blades (police seizures and everyday knives) to help the interpretation of the results stemming from the analysis of the fibre evidence in crime cases involving the use of a bladed weapon. A population study was carried out to learn about the variety, the distribution and the size of the fibre population present on knife blades. After recovery using tapes lifting, stereoscopic examinations were performed to classify around 1500 fibres according to their colour and generic type. The most common colour/type combinations were: colourless/white cotton (31%), blue cotton (16%) and grey cotton fibres (11%). As blue fibres represent one of the most common colour group, they were selected to carry out a colour block study (based on microscopy observations and microspectrophotometry UV-vis spectra) to investigate the number and the size of the groups of indistinguishable fibres present on each blade. Only 30% of the knife blades presented more than one blue cotton fibre. The number of groups found per knife varied between 1 and 3, each group containing between 2 and 6 fibres. Findings revealed an important difference between the background fibre populations in terms of quantity of fibres, their morphology and spatial distributions - and the population of fibres transferred in a stabbing. The collected data can be used in a Bayesian approach to help with the interpretation of results.