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Sánchez-Molina D, Galtés I, García-Vilana S, Velázquez-Ameijide J. A probabilistic model for murder weapon identification using stab-marks in human ribs. Int J Legal Med 2023; 137:1555-1567. [PMID: 36763161 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-022-02933-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/07/2022] [Indexed: 02/11/2023]
Abstract
The aim of this article is to provide a scientific and statistical basis to identify the murder weapon in stabbing cases from the geometric characteristics of the stab-marks left on human ribs. For this purpose, a quantitative predictive model is developed, based on geometric measurements of the stab-mark and its location along the rib. A general method based on Bayesian inference and probabilities is used for the model development, rather than a deterministic model given its inability in certain occasions to identify the murder weapon. Following the process explained in this article to collect the stab-mark information required, the complete probabilistic model exposed attained a high accuracy in the identification of the murder weapon between two macroscopically identical blades with a microscopic alteration in one of them (more than 90% of correct identification is achieved).
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Affiliation(s)
| | - I Galtés
- IMLCFC, G.V. Corts Catalanes, 111, 08014, Barcelona, Spain
- UAB, Campus Bellaterra, Edifici M, 08193, Bellaterra, Spain
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Vink M, Sjerps M. A collection of idioms for modeling activity level evaluations in forensic science. Forensic Sci Int Synerg 2023; 6:100331. [PMID: 37332325 PMCID: PMC10276233 DOI: 10.1016/j.fsisyn.2023.100331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2023] [Revised: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 05/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/20/2023]
Abstract
This paper presents a collection of idioms that is useful for modeling activity level evaluations in forensic science using Bayesian networks. The idioms are categorized into five groups: cause-consequence idioms, narrative idioms, synthesis idioms, hypothesis-conditioning idioms, and evidence-conditioning idioms. Each category represents a specific modeling objective. Furthermore, we support the use of an idiom-based approach and emphasize the relevance of our collection by combining several of the presented idioms to create a more comprehensive template model. This model can be used in cases involving transfer evidence and disputes over the actor and/or activity. Additionally, we cite literature that employs idioms in template models or case-specific models, providing the reader with examples of their use in forensic casework.
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Affiliation(s)
- M. Vink
- University of Amsterdam, KdVI, PO Box 94248, 1090 GE, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Netherlands Forensic Institute, Laan van Ypenburg 6, 2497GB, The Hague, Netherlands
| | - M.J. Sjerps
- University of Amsterdam, KdVI, PO Box 94248, 1090 GE, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Netherlands Forensic Institute, Laan van Ypenburg 6, 2497GB, The Hague, Netherlands
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Fan F, Dong X, Wu X, Li R, Dai X, Zhang K, Huang F, Deng Z. An evaluation of statistical models for age estimation and the assessment of the 18-year threshold using conventional pelvic radiographs. Forensic Sci Int 2020; 314:110350. [PMID: 32650207 DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2020.110350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2019] [Revised: 05/24/2020] [Accepted: 05/25/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The developmental patterns of the pelvic epiphyses are one of the anatomical markers used in the assessment of skeletal age and the legally relevant age threshold. In this study, four regression models and five classification models were developed for forensic age estimation and the determination of the 18-year threshold, respectively. A total of 2137 conventional pelvic radiographs (1215 males and 922 females) aged 10.00-25.99 years were analyzed, and the ossification and fusion of the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity epiphyses were scored separately. The epiphyses on both sides were used as inputs for all models. The accuracy of the regression models was compared using the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error. The percentages of correct classifications were evaluated for the determination of the 18-year threshold. Support vector regression (SVR) and gradient boosting regression (GBR) showed higher accuracy for age estimation in both sexes. The lowest MAE was 1.38 years in males when using SVR and 1.16 years in females when using GBR. In the demarcation of minors and adults, the percentage of correct classification was over 92%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves was over 0.91 in all models, except the Bernoulli naive Bayes classifier. This study demonstrated that the present models may be helpful for age estimation and the determination of the 18-year threshold. However, owing to the high effective dose of ionizing radiation used during conventional radiography of the pelvis, it is expected that these models will be tested with pelvic MRI for age estimation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fei Fan
- West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China
| | - Xiaoai Dong
- West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China
| | - Xuemei Wu
- School of Basic Medical Sciences, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350122, China
| | - Rui Li
- College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610064, China
| | - Xinhua Dai
- West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China
| | - Kui Zhang
- West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China
| | - Feijun Huang
- West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
| | - Zhenhua Deng
- West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
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Konigsberg LW, Frankenberg SR, Liversidge HM. Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases. J Forensic Sci 2018; 64:680-697. [DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.13926] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2018] [Revised: 08/31/2018] [Accepted: 09/19/2018] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Lyle W. Konigsberg
- Department of Anthropology University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana IL 61801
| | - Susan R. Frankenberg
- Department of Anthropology University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana IL 61801
| | - Helen M. Liversidge
- Institute of Dentistry, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry Queen Mary University of London London E1 2AD U.K
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Sironi E, Pinchi V, Pradella F, Focardi M, Bozza S, Taroni F. Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization. J Forensic Leg Med 2018; 55:23-32. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jflm.2018.02.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2017] [Revised: 02/04/2018] [Accepted: 02/05/2018] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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Koenig A, Weyermann C. Ink dating part II: Interpretation of results in a legal perspective. Sci Justice 2018; 58:31-46. [PMID: 29332693 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2017.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2017] [Revised: 07/18/2017] [Accepted: 08/02/2017] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
The development of an ink dating method requires an important investment of resources in order to step from the monitoring of ink ageing on paper to the determination of the actual age of a questioned ink entry. This article aimed at developing and evaluating the potential of three interpretation models to date ink entries in a legal perspective: (1) the threshold model comparing analytical results to tabulated values in order to determine the maximal possible age of an ink entry, (2) the trend tests that focusing on the "ageing status" of an ink entry, and (3) the likelihood ratio calculation comparing the probabilities to observe the results under at least two alternative hypotheses. This is the first report showing ink dating interpretation results on a ballpoint be ink reference population. In the first part of this paper three ageing parameters were selected as promising from the population of 25 ink entries aged during 4 to 304days: the quantity of phenoxyethanol (PE), the difference between the PE quantities contained in a naturally aged sample and an artificially aged sample (RNORM) and the solvent loss ratio (R%). In the current part, each model was tested using the three selected ageing parameters. Results showed that threshold definition remains a simple model easily applicable in practice, but that the risk of false positive cannot be completely avoided without reducing significantly the feasibility of the ink dating approaches. The trend tests from the literature showed unreliable results and an alternative had to be developed yielding encouraging results. The likelihood ratio calculation introduced a degree of certainty to the ink dating conclusion in comparison to the threshold approach. The proposed model remains quite simple to apply in practice, but should be further developed in order to yield reliable results in practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Agnès Koenig
- Ecole des Sciences Criminelles, Université de Lausanne, Batochime, 1015 Lausanne, Dorigny, Switzerland.
| | - Céline Weyermann
- Ecole des Sciences Criminelles, Université de Lausanne, Batochime, 1015 Lausanne, Dorigny, Switzerland
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Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence. Int J Legal Med 2017; 132:1125-1138. [PMID: 29138952 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-017-1733-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2017] [Accepted: 11/07/2017] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. METHODS The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.
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Gaborini L, Biedermann A, Taroni F. Towards a Bayesian evaluation of features in questioned handwritten signatures. Sci Justice 2017; 57:209-220. [DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2017.01.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2016] [Revised: 01/10/2017] [Accepted: 01/22/2017] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
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