A critical review of sub-adult age estimation in biological anthropology: Do methods comply with published recommendations?

Validation of age estimation methods through the scapula in a Mediterranean non-adult population

Age estimation methods through the metric study of bones in non-adult individuals are a frequently used tool in Biological and Forensic Anthropology; however, few methodological validation studies are available, given the limited number of adequate samples for their study. In this context, the aim of this work is to test the effectiveness of the methods of Fazekas and Kósa (1978), Saunders et al. (1993), Rissech and Black (2007) and Cardoso et al. (2017), for age estimation through the measurements of the scapula, in the non-adult osteological collection of the Anthropology Laboratory of the University of Granada (Spain), one of the most representative identified non-adult collections internationally. For this purpose, nine different measurements of the scapula were taken from a total of 149 non-adult individuals, applying the regression formulae proposed by the different authors and verifying their accuracy. Results have shown the existence of significant differences between the real age and the estimated age in almost all the tested methods, with degrees of error that differ from those obtained in the original study populations. Based on the obtained results, it is recommended to use the method of Cardoso et al. in postnatal individuals, always adjusting the degrees of error with those obtained in this work.

Sex and ancestry patterning of residual correlations in human dental development: Cooperative genetic interaction and phenotypic plasticity

OBJECTIVES

Most research in human dental age estimation has focused on point estimates of age, and most research on dental development theories has focused on morphology or eruption. Correlations between developing teeth using ordinal staging have received less attention. The effect of demographic variables on these correlations is unknown. I tested the effect of reference sample demographic variables on the residual correlation matrix using the lens of cooperative genetic interaction (CGI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The sample consisted of Moorrees et al., Journal of Dental Research, 1963, 42, 1490-1502, scores of left mandibular permanent teeth from panoramic radiographs of 880 London children 3-22.99 years of age stratified by year of age, sex, and Bangladeshi or European ancestry. A multivariate cumulative probit model was fit to each sex/ancestry group (n = 220), each sex or ancestry (n = 440), and all individuals (n = 880). Residual correlation matrices from nine reference sample configurations were compared using Bartlett's tests of between-sample difference matrices against the identity matrix, hierarchical cluster analysis, and dendrogram cophenetic correlations.

RESULTS

Bartlett's test results were inconclusive. Cluster analysis showed clustering by tooth class, position within class, and developmental timing. Clustering patterns and dendrogram correlations showed similarity by sex but not ancestry.

DISCUSSION

Expectations of CGI were supported for developmental staging. This supports using CGI as a model for explaining patterns of variation within the dentition. Sex was found to produce consistent patterns of dental correlations, whereas ancestry did not. Clustering by timing of development supports phenotypic plasticity in the dentition and suggests shared environment over genetic ancestry to explain population differences.

Age estimation in infant and prenatal individuals through the metric development of the pars petrosa and squamosal portion of the temporal bone

This study proposes an assessment of the accuracy of the Fazekas and Kósa and Nagaoka methods by measuring the squamosal and petrous portions of the temporal bone, whose application in the Mediterranean population is not recommended. Therefore, our proposal is a new formula to estimate the age of skeletal remains from individuals at 5 months gestational age to 1.5 postnatal years with the temporal bone. The proposed equation was calculated on a Mediterranean sample identified from the cemetery of San José, Granada (n = 109). The mathematical model used is the exponential regression of the estimated age for each measure and sex, and both in combination, using an inverse calibration and cross-validation model. In addition, the estimation errors and the percentage of individuals within a 95% confidence interval were calculated. The lateral development of the skull, especially the growth of the length of the petrous portion, showed the greatest accuracy, while its counterpart, the width of the pars petrosa, showed the lowest accuracy, so its use is discouraged. The positive results from this paper should be useful in both forensic and bioarchaeological contexts.

The effect of reference sample composition and size on dental age interval estimates

OBJECTIVES

Validation studies in juvenile dental age estimation primarily focus on point estimates while interval performance for reference samples of different ancestry group compositions has received minimal attention. We tested the effect of reference sample size and composition by sex and ancestry group on age interval estimates.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The dataset consisted of Moorrees et al. dental scores from panoramic radiographs of 3334 London children of Bangladeshi and European ancestry and 2-23 years of age. Model stability was assessed using standard error of mean age-at-transition for univariate cumulative probit and sample size, group mixing (sex or ancestry), and staging system as factors. Age estimation performance was tested using molar reference samples of four sizes, stratified by year of age, sex, and ancestry. Age estimates were performed using Bayesian multivariate cumulative probit with 5-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

Standard error increased with decreasing sample size but showed no effect from mixing by sex or ancestry. Estimating ages using a reference and target sample of different sex reduced success rate significantly. The same test by ancestry groups had a lesser effect. Small sample size (n < 20/year of age) negatively affected most performance metrics.

DISCUSSION

We found that reference sample size, followed by sex, primarily drove age estimation performance. Combining reference samples by ancestry produced equivalent or better estimates of age by all metrics than using a single-demographic reference of smaller size. We further proposed that population specificity is an alternative hypothesis of intergroup difference that has been erroneously treated as a null.

Reference and target sample age distribution impacts between model types in dental developmental age estimation

The performance of age estimation methods may vary due to a combination of method- and sample-related factors. Method development and evaluation necessitates understanding what influences these factors have on age estimation outcomes. In the specific context of juvenile dental age estimation, we used a single dataset and complete factorial design to systematically test four potential sources of difference: age distributions of reference and target sample (uniform, unimodal, U-shaped), Bayesian (multivariate Bayesian cumulative probit) vs. classical regression modeling (multivariate adaptive regression splines i.e. MARS), and model selection bias. The dataset consisted of 850 sets of left mandibular molar scores from London children 5-18 years old. True age and estimated age intervals in target samples were compared for bias, root-mean-squared error, precision, and accuracy using locally weighted smoothing of performance measures across the age range and means of performance metrics between factor-level combinations. We found interactions of model type, reference distribution, and target distribution. MARS models showed consistent evidence of age mimicry. Central tendency of the reference sample corresponded with increased bias while central tendency of the target sample corresponded with reduced RMSE and reduced precision for both model types. We found evidence of model selection bias, mitigated through averaging model metrics. We conclude that reference and target sample distribution influences and model selection bias are sufficient to cause difference in model performance within a single population. We suggest using Bayesian modeling, drawing uniform reference and target samples, and calculating test error on a hold-out sample to mitigate these challenges in method development.

Age estimation using London Atlas methodology: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Age estimation is a fundamental competence of Forensic Anthropologists and Odontologists. The London Atlas is a dental development chart by AlQahtani et al. (2010) that gained recent notoriety due to its applicability in forensic scenarios. This study aimed to answer, by a systematic review of literature and meta-analysis, the following question: "on average, what is the deviation between real and estimated ages, when applying the London Atlas method in sub-adults?". This study was carried out according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO). Five electronic databases were screened (PubMed, SciELO, Scopus, Web of Science, and LILACS), and active search was carried out. The quality assessment was performed by means of Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tools for Systematic Reviews. The initial search resulted in 1021 studies, from which 24 filled the inclusion criteria. For the meta-analysis, 17 studies provided sufficient data. Out of these, eleven studies enabled meta-analysis of mean absolute difference values. Standardized mean differences were 0.02 years for MD and 0.78 for MAD. Analysis of subgroups was also accomplished by sex, and did not indicated heterogeneity between males and females. The London Atlas is an accurate age estimation method, presenting acceptable error and bias values worldwide. Despite the high heterogeneity of the studies, majority of studies presented a low risk of bias. Meta-analysis showed a non-significant and slight tendency of overestimating age, in total. Sub-group analysis showed modestly better results for boys than girls.

Biological mortality bias in diaphyseal growth of contemporary children: Implications for paleoauxology

Objectives

Biological mortality bias is the idea that individuals who comprise skeletal samples (non‐survivors) are a specific subset of the overall population, who may have been exposed to greater stress during life. Because of this, it is possible that studying growth in a skeletal population misrepresents the growth and health of survivors in that population. Using a modern sample, this study investigates whether biological mortality bias in growth may be present in archaeological skeletal samples.

Materials and methods

Postmortem computed tomography scans of 206 children aged under 13 years were collected from two institutions in the United States and Australia. The sample was separated into children who died from natural causes as proxies for non‐survivors and from accidental causes as proxies for survivors. Differences in long bone length for age were assessed through analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and z‐score analysis, and these results were compared with studies linking anthropometrics and mortality risk in nonindustrialized societies.

Results

Differences in growth favoring survivors were greater for girls than for boys and seemed to increase over age. The effect in nonindustrialized societies was 1.5 to 5 times the magnitude of that in our contemporary sample.

Conclusions

A greater growth delay in girls than in boys has been documented in historical identified collections, and skeletal samples consistently become more stunted relative to modern standards over the course of growth. Our findings on biological mortality bias could explain part of these growth delays and impact interpretations of past ontogenetic environments.

How low can we go? A skeletal maturity threshold for probabilistic visual sex estimation from immature human os coxae

OBJECTIVES

The appearance of sexually dimorphic traits varies depending on the type of bone, age, environmental and genetic factors and is closely linked to skeletal maturation sequence. Subadult sex estimation currently shows inconsistent accuracy and methods do not incorporate indicators of maturation. The goal of this study is to apply the Santos et al. (2019) adult sex estimation method on virtually reconstructed subadult os coxae and account for pelvic maturation.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The right os coxae of 194 female and male individuals aged 11-30 years from Marseille, France were virtually reconstructed from computed tomography (CT) scans. Santos et al.'s (2019) 11 traits were scored as female, male, or indeterminate. Maturation of 10 pelvic epiphyseal sites was scored using a four-stage system (0-3) to obtain a composite maturity score from 1 to 30.

RESULTS

Three maturity groups were identified based on composite maturity scores ranging from 0 to 30. Individuals with a composite maturity score of 15 or higher showed 98 % sex estimation accuracy and a 6 % indeterminate rate. Scores of 2 for the ischiatic tuberosity or 1 for the anterior superior iliac spine can be used as proxies for a composite maturity score of 15 and application on incomplete bones.

DISCUSSION

Sexual dimorphism was observed in the epiphyseal maturation sequence and the development of sexually dimorphic pelvic traits. The Santos et al. (2019) method is applicable on immature individuals who meet a maturation threshold with comparable accuracy to adults, without relying on known or estimated age.

Contributions of the pars lateralis, pars basilaris and femur to age estimations of the immature skeleton within a South African forensic setting

Dental development and eruption sequences have prevailed as the gold standard in age estimations of previously unidentified immature individuals within a legal context. However, in the absence of the dentition, skeletal assessments have served as a frequently applied alternative. While various cranial and postcranial skeletal elements have been used in estimating age of the immature skeleton, little is known about the anthropometric value of the pars basilaris, pars lateralis and femur as skeletal age estimation tools. Thus, this study aimed to assess if these bones of the immature human skeleton were useful elements in estimating the age of prenatal and postnatal individuals. These bones were excised from the remains of 74 unclaimed human immature individuals and evaluated using traditional anthropometric methods. The study sample was sourced from the Johannesburg Forensic Pathology Services (JFPS) and the Johannesburg Forensic Paediatric Collection (JFPC), University of the Witwatersrand and subdivided into an early prenatal (younger than 30 gestational weeks); late prenatal (30 to 40 gestational weeks) and postnatal (birth to 7.5 months) age ranges. Statistically significant differences (p ≤ 0.05) were found when assessing the maximum length, sagittal length, maximum width and distal width of the bones across each of the age ranges (30 gestational weeks to 7 postnatal months). The cranial and postcranial skeletal elements investigated in this study provide a valuable contribution to skeletal ageing in African individuals.

Sub-adult aging method selection (SAMS): A decisional tool for selecting and evaluating sub-adult age estimation methods based on standardized methodological parameters

OBJECTIVES

A decisional tool was developed to select sub-adult age estimation methods referenced in a centralized database. Through a freely accessible webpage interface, this tool allows users to evaluate how much the sampling and statistical protocols of these referenced methods comply with methodological recommendations published for building and applying methods in forensic anthropology.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

261 publications on sub-adult age estimation were collected. Three search parameters describing the anatomical element(s) and the indicators used to obtain age estimates are chosen by the user to filter the database and present the publications that best correspond to the user's selection. A simple algorithm was created to score age estimation methods according to their relevance and validity. "Relevance" and "Validity" parameters indicate how much a publication complies with user queries and published methodological recommendations, respectively; "Score" is a combination of "Relevance" and "Validity". The closer these parameters are to 1, the better the method complies with the user's choice and standardized protocols.

RESULTS

The publications resulting from the user's query appear as search results alphabetically. They are characterized by their "Relevance", "Validity" and "Score" values and descriptors relating to their methodology, sampling and statistical protocols. The reference of the publications and an URL to access them online are also provided.

CONCLUSIONS

SAMS is a decisional tool based on a centralized database for selecting, accessing and evaluating sub-adult age estimation methods based on published methodological recommendations. Protocol validity can be easily and fully accessed to provide the necessary information for method evaluation. The database will be gradually updated and implemented as new sub-adult age estimation methods are made available online.

Age estimation in forensic anthropology: methodological considerations about the validation studies of prediction models

There is currently no clear consensus on how to calculate, express, and interpret the error when validating methods for age estimation in forensic anthropology. For this reason, it is likely that researchers are commonly drawing erroneous or confusing conclusions about the existence of population differences or the need to design new and increasingly complex estimation methods. In recent years, many researchers have highlighted these limitations. They propose new lines of research focused on the use of rigorous statistics and new technologies for the development of methods for estimating age. Our main objective in this study is to contribute to the strengthening of these novel ideas, for which we show the existing empirical evidence about the inadequacy of some age estimation methods in calculating, expressing, and interpreting the errors obtained. With this aim, a total of 500 simulations have been performed, in which hypothetical research teams develop and validate methods for age estimation. The data employed in this study was obtained from the "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Growth Charts: United States" released in 2000. The charts relate age with height, weight, and head circumference of US male children. Five learning algorithms have been employed as age estimators. We have performed three experiments in which the following aspects have been analyzed: frequency with which "negative" results can be obtained in the validation studies; which are the most appropriate criteria to compare and select the age estimation methods; and what analysis should be employed to carry out the validation studies. The results show possible errors in the interpretation of validation studies as a consequence of the confusion of statistical concepts. To conclude, we made a proposal of "good practices" for the correct calculation, expression, and interpretation of the error when validating age estimation methods in forensic anthropology.