Estimating the number of contributors to a DNA profile using decision trees

Uncertainty in the number of contributor estimation methods applied to a Y-STR profile

Maximum allele count (MAC) and total allele count (TAC) methods are widely used for estimating the number of contributors (NoC) of autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) profile in many forensic laboratories. In this study, we applied NoC estimation methods to mixed Y-STR profiles and evaluated its uncertainty and performance. For the MAC method, as recent Y-STR typing kits involve single- and multi-copy loci, we defined "MAC-single" for use across only single-copy loci and "MAC-multi" for use across only multi-copy loci. We generated a dataset containing 120,000 Y-STR profiles for a one to six-person mixture in silico based on previously reported haplotype frequencies of 27 Y-STR loci in Yfiler Plus for the U.S. population (reported by NIST) and the Henan Han population. The dataset was randomly split into a training set and a test set. The training set was used to construct a TAC distribution (TAC curve), whereas the test set was used to calculate the performance metrics (accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score). In addition, the effect of the upper limit of NoC considered for estimation on overall accuracy was evaluated. The overall accuracies of MAC-single, MAC-multi, and TAC methods when the upper limit of NoC was set to six-person were 0.7920, 0.4329, and 0.7877 for the U.S. population and 0.8207, 0.4609, and 0.8385 for the Henan Han population. Our results suggest that the MAC-single and TAC methods can estimate the NoC for mixed Y-STR profiles with high levels of accuracy.

Comprehensive landscape of non-CODIS STRs in global populations provides new insights into challenging DNA profiles

The worldwide implementation of short tandem repeats (STR) profiles in forensic genetics necessitated establishing and expanding the CODIS core loci set to facilitated efficient data management and exchange. Currently, the mainstay CODIS STRs are adopted in most general-purpose forensic kits. However, relying solely on these loci failed to yield satisfactory results for challenging tasks, such as bio-geographical ancestry inference, complex DNA mixture profile interpretation, and distant kinship analysis. In this context, non-CODIS STRs are potent supplements to enhance the systematic discriminating power, particularly when combined with the high-throughput next-generation sequencing (NGS) technique. Nevertheless, comprehensive evaluation on non-CODIS STRs in diverse populations was scarce, hindering their further application in routine caseworks. To address this gap, we investigated genetic variations of 178 historically available non-CODIS STRs from ethnolinguistically different worldwide populations and studied their characteristics and forensic potentials via high-coverage whole genome sequencing (WGS) data. Initially, we delineated the genomic properties of these non-CODIS markers through sequence searching, repeat structure scanning, and manual inspection. Subsequent population genetics analysis suggested that these non-CODIS STRs had comparable polymorphism levels and forensic utility to CODIS STRs. Furthermore, we constructed a theoretical next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel comprising 108 STRs (20 CODIS STRs and 88 non-CODIS STRs), and evaluated its performance in inferring bio-geographical ancestry origins, deconvoluting complex DNA mixtures, and differentiating distant kinships using real and simulated datasets. Our findings demonstrated that incorporating supplementary non-CODIS STRs enabled the extrapolation of multidimensional information from a single STR profile, thereby facilitating the analysis of challenging forensic tasks. In conclusion, this study presents an extensive genomic landscape of forensic non-CODIS STRs among global populations, and emphasized the imperative inclusion of additional polymorphic non-CODIS STRs in future NGS-based forensic systems.

Machine learning applications in forensic DNA profiling: A critical review

Machine learning (ML) is a range of powerful computational algorithms capable of generating predictive models via intelligent autonomous analysis of relatively large and often unstructured data. ML has become an integral part of our daily lives with a plethora of applications, including web, business, automotive industry, clinical diagnostics, scientific research, and more recently, forensic science. In the field of forensic DNA, the manual analysis of complex data can be challenging, time-consuming, and error-prone. The integration of novel ML-based methods may aid in streamlining this process while maintaining the high accuracy and reproducibility required for forensic tools. Due to the relative novelty of such applications, the forensic community is largely unaware of ML capabilities and limitations. Furthermore, computer science and ML professionals are often unfamiliar with the forensic science field and its specific requirements. This manuscript offers a brief introduction to the capabilities of machine learning methods and their applications in the context of forensic DNA analysis and offers a critical review of the current literature in this rapidly developing field.

Using simulated microhaplotype genotyping data to evaluate the value of machine learning algorithms for inferring DNA mixture contributor numbers

Inferring the number of contributors (NoC) is a crucial step in interpreting DNA mixtures, as it directly affects the accuracy of the likelihood ratio calculation and the assessment of evidence strength. However, obtaining the correct NoC in complex DNA mixtures remains challenging due to the high degree of allele sharing and dropout. This study aimed to analyze the impact of allele sharing and dropout on NoC inference in complex DNA mixtures when using microhaplotypes (MH). The effectiveness and value of highly polymorphic MH for NoC inference in complex DNA mixtures were evaluated through comparing the performance of three NoC inference methods, including maximum allele count (MAC) method, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method, and random forest classification (RFC) algorithm. In this study, we selected the top 100 most polymorphic MH from the Southern Han Chinese (CHS) population, and simulated over 40 million complex DNA mixture profiles with the NoC ranging from 2 to 8. These profiles involve unrelated individuals (RM type) and related pairs of individuals, including parent-offspring pairs (PO type), full-sibling pairs (FS type), and second-degree kinship pairs (SE type). Our results indicated that how the number of detected alleles in DNA mixture profiles varied with the markers' polymorphism, kinship's involvement, NoC, and dropout settings. Across different types of DNA mixtures, the MAC and MLE methods performed best in the RM type, followed by SE, FS, and PO types, while RFC models showed the best performance in the PO type, followed by RM, SE, and FS types. The recall of all three methods for NoC inference were decreased as the NoC and dropout levels increased. Furthermore, the MLE method performed better at low NoC, whereas RFC models excelled at high NoC and/or high dropout levels, regardless of the availability of a priori information about related pairs of individuals in DNA mixtures. However, the RFC models which considered the aforementioned priori information and were trained specifically on each type of DNA mixture profiles, outperformed RFC_ALL model that did not consider such information. Finally, we provided recommendations for model building when applying machine learning algorithms to NoC inference.

Application of SNPs with low minor allele frequencies in missing person identification (MPI) through kinship analysis of DNA mixtures

The need to identify a missing person (MP) through kinship analysis of DNA samples found at a crime scene has become increasingly prevalent. DNA samples from MPs can be severely degraded, contain little DNA and mixed with other contributors, which often makes it difficult to apply conventional methods in practice. This study developed a massively parallel sequencing-based panel that contains 1661 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with low minor allele frequencies (MAFs) (averaged at 0.0613) in the Chinese Han population, and the strategy for relationship inference from DNA mixtures comprising different numbers of contributors (NOCs) and of varying allele dropout probabilities. Based on the simulated dataset and genotyping results of 42 artificial DNA mixtures (NOC = 2-4), it was observed that the present SNP panel was sufficient for balanced mixtures when referenced to the closest relatives (parents/offspring and full siblings). When the mixture profiles suffered from dropout, incorrect assignments were markedly associated with relatedness, NOC and the dropout level. We, therefore, indicate that SNPs with low MAFs could be reliably interpreted for MP identification through the kinship analysis of complex DNA mixtures. Further studies should be extended to more possible scenarios to test the feasibility of this present approach.

A tool for simulating single source and mixed DNA profiles

Simulation studies play an important role in the study of probabilistic genotyping systems, as a low cost and fast alternative to in vitro studies. With ongoing calls for further study of the behaviour of probabilistic genotyping systems, there is a continuous need for such studies. In most cases, researchers use simplified models, for example ignoring complexities such as peak height variability due to lack of availability of advanced tools. We fill this void and describe a tool that can simulate DNA profiles in silico for the validation and investigation of probabilistic genotyping software. Contributor genotypes are simulated by randomly sampling alleles from selected allele frequencies. Some or all contributors may be related to a pedigree and the genotypes of non-founders are obtained by random gene dropping. The number of contributors per profile, and ranges for parameters such as DNA template amount and degradation parameters can be configured. Peak height variability is modelled using a lognormal distribution or a gamma distribution. Profile behaviour of simulated profiles is shown to be broadly similar to laboratory generated profiles though the latter shows more variation. Simulation studies do not remove the need for experimental data. The tool has been made available as an R-package named simDNAmixtures.

Exploring likelihood ratios assigned for siblings of the true mixture contributor as an alternate contributor

Relatives tend to have more DNA in common than unrelated people. The closer the biological relationship, the higher the chance of alleles being identical by descent between the individuals. Therefore, when considering a mixed DNA profile, close relatives of the true contributor may not always be excluded as a possible contributor to a mixture due to allele sharing. In these situations, it might be more appropriate under the alternate proposition to consider that the DNA could have originated from a relative of the person of interest rather than an unrelated individual. The probabilistic genotyping software STRmix™ automatically provides LRs considering close biological relatives as alternate sources of the DNA. In this paper, we investigate the support for siblings of the true contributor to a mixture (who are not present in the mixture themselves). We interpret the mixtures and assign LRs using STRmix™ and investigate whether the resulting LRs could be used to indicate whether the true contributor could be a sibling of the POI. Most siblings will have one or more alleles that are not observed in the mixture profile. Support for siblings to have contributed can only occur when allelic dropout is a possibility at the loci where the siblings have alleles that are not observed in the profile. In these data, that was only observed in components with assigned template of 588 rfu or less.

TAWSEEM: A Deep-Learning-Based Tool for Estimating the Number of Unknown Contributors in DNA Profiling

DNA profiling involves the analysis of sequences of an individual or mixed DNA profiles to identify the persons that these profiles belong to. A critically important application of DNA profiling is in forensic science to identify criminals by finding a match between their blood samples and the DNA profile found on the crime scene. Other applications include paternity tests, disaster victim identification, missing person investigations, and mapping genetic diseases. A crucial task in DNA profiling is the determination of the number of contributors in a DNA mixture profile, which is challenging due to issues that include allele dropout, stutter, blobs, and noise in DNA profiles; these issues negatively affect the estimation accuracy and the computational complexity. Machine-learning-based methods have been applied for estimating the number of unknowns; however, there is limited work in this area and many more efforts are required to develop robust models and their training on large and diverse datasets. In this paper, we propose and develop a software tool called TAWSEEM that employs a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network deep learning model for estimating the number of unknown contributors in DNA mixture profiles using PROVEDIt, the largest publicly available dataset. We investigate the performance of our developed deep learning model using four performance metrics, namely accuracy, F1-score, recall, and precision. The novelty of our tool is evident in the fact that it provides the highest accuracy (97%) compared to any existing work on the most diverse dataset (in terms of the profiles, loci, multiplexes, etc.). We also provide a detailed background on the DNA profiling and literature review, and a detailed account of the deep learning tool development and the performance investigation of the deep learning method.

A highly polymorphic panel of 40-plex microhaplotypes for the Chinese Han population and its application in estimating the number of contributors in DNA mixtures

Microhaplotypes (MHs) have great potential in multiple forensic applications and have proven to be promising markers in complex DNA mixture analysis. In this study, we developed a multiplex panel of 40 highly polymorphic MHs for the Chinese Han population, evaluated its forensic values, and explored its application in predicting the number of contributors (NOCs) in DNA mixtures. The panel consisted of 20 newly proposed loci and 20 previously reported loci with lengths spanning less than 120 bp. The average effective number of alleles (A_e) was 3.77, and the cumulative matching probability (CMP) and the cumulative power of exclusion (CPE) reached 1.2E-37 and 1-2.1E-12, respectively, in the Chinese Han population from the 1000 Genomes Project. Further validation on 150 Chinese Han individuals showed that A_e ranged from 2.62 to 4.41 with a mean value of 3.61, and CMP and CPE were 3.61E-36 and 1-1.84E-12, respectively, indicating that this panel was informative for personal identification and paternity testing in the studied population. To estimate NOC in DNA mixtures, we developed a machine learning model based on this panel. As a result, the accuracies in artificial DNA mixtures reached 95.24% for 2- to 4-person mixtures and 83.33% for 2- to 6-person mixtures. Furthermore, the NOC estimation on simulated profiles with allele dropout showed that this panel was still robust under slight dropout. In conclusion, this panel has value for forensic identification and NOC estimation of DNA mixtures.

A Review of Probabilistic Genotyping Systems: EuroForMix, DNAStatistX and STRmix™

Probabilistic genotyping has become widespread. EuroForMix and DNAStatistX are both based upon maximum likelihood estimation using a γ model, whereas STRmix™ is a Bayesian approach that specifies prior distributions on the unknown model parameters. A general overview is provided of the historical development of probabilistic genotyping. Some general principles of interpretation are described, including: the application to investigative vs. evaluative reporting; detection of contamination events; inter and intra laboratory studies; numbers of contributors; proposition setting and validation of software and its performance. This is followed by details of the evolution, utility, practice and adoption of the software discussed.

The a posteriori probability of the number of contributors when conditioned on an assumed contributor

Forensic DNA signal is notoriously challenging to assess, requiring computational tools to support its interpretation. Over-expressions of stutter, allele drop-out, allele drop-in, degradation, differential degradation, and the like, make forensic DNA profiles too complicated to evaluate by manual methods. In response, computational tools that make point estimates on the Number of Contributors (NOC) to a sample have been developed, as have Bayesian methods that evaluate an A Posteriori Probability (APP) distribution on the NOC. In cases where an overly narrow NOC range is assumed, the downstream strength of evidence may be incomplete insofar as the evidence is evaluated with an inadequate set of propositions. In the current paper, we extend previous work on NOCIt, a Bayesian method that determines an APP on the NOC given an electropherogram, by reporting on an implementation where the user can add assumed contributors. NOCIt is a continuous system that incorporates models of peak height (including degradation and differential degradation), forward and reverse stutter, noise, and allelic drop-out, while being cognizant of allele frequencies in a reference population. When conditioned on a known contributor, we found that the mode of the APP distribution can shift to one greater when compared with the circumstance where no known contributor is assumed, and that occurred most often when the assumed contributor was the minor constituent to the mixture. In a development of a result of Slooten and Caliebe (FSI:G, 2018) that, under suitable assumptions, establishes the NOC can be treated as a nuisance variable in the computation of a likelihood ratio between the prosecution and defense hypotheses, we show that this computation must not only use coincident models, but also coincident contextual information. The results reported here, therefore, illustrate the power of modern probabilistic systems to assess full weights-of-evidence, and to provide information on reasonable NOC ranges across multiple contexts.

A series of developmental validation tests for Number of Contributors platforms: Exemplars using NOCIt and a neural network

Complex DNA mixtures are challenging to interpret and require computational tools that aid in that interpretation. Recently, several computational methods that estimate the number of contributors (NOC) to a sample have been developed. Unlike analogous tools that interpret profiles and report LRs, NOC tools vary widely in their operational principle where some are Bayesian and others are machine learning tools. Conjunctionally, NOC tools may return a single n estimate, or a distribution on n. This vast array of constructs, coupled with a gap in standardized methods by which to validate NOC systems, warrants an exploration into the measures by which differing NOC systems might be tested for operations. In the current paper, we use two exemplar NOC systems: a probabilistic system named NOCIt, which renders an a posteriori probability (APP) distribution on the number of contributors given an electropherogram and an artificial neural network (ANN). NOCIt is a continuous Bayesian inference system incorporating models of peak height, degradation, differential degradation, forward and reverse stutter, noise and allelic drop-out while considering allele frequencies in a reference population. The ANN is also a continuous method, taking all the same features (barring degradation) into account. Unlike its Bayesian counterpart, it demands substantively more data to parameterize, requiring synthetic data. We explore each system's performance by conducting tests on 214 PROVEDIt mixtures where the limit of detection was 1-copy of DNA. We found that after a lengthy training period of approximately 24 h, the ANN's evaluation process was very fast and perfectly repeatable. In contrast, NOCIt only took a few minutes to train but took tens of minutes to complete each sample and was less repeatable. In addition, it rendered a probability distribution that was more sensitive and specific, affording a reasonable method by which to report all reasonable n that explain the evidence for a given sample. Whatever the method, by acknowledging the inherent differences between NOC systems, we demonstrate that validation constructs will necessarily be guided by the needs of the forensic domain and be dependent upon whether the laboratory seeks to assign a single n or range of n.

Evaluating DNA evidence possibly involving multiple (mixed) samples, common donors and related contributors

Forensic DNA profiling is used in various circumstances to evaluate support for two competing propositions with the assignment of a likelihood ratio. Many software implementations exist that tackle a range of inference problems spanning identification and relationship testing. We propose a flexible likelihood ratio framework that caters to inference problems in forensic genetics. The framework allows for investigation of the degree of support for the contribution of multiple persons to multiple samples allowing for persons to be related according to a pedigree, including inbred relationships. We explain how a number of routine as well as more complex problems can be treated within this framework.