Relaxing the assumption of unrelatedness in the numerator and denominator of likelihood ratios for DNA mixtures

Improved individual identification in DNA mixtures of unrelated or related contributors through massively parallel sequencing

DNA mixtures are a common sample type in forensic genetics, and we typically assume that contributors to the mixture are unrelated when calculating the likelihood ratio (LR). However, scenarios involving mixtures with related contributors, such as in family murder or incest cases, can also be encountered. Compared to the mixtures with unrelated contributors, the kinship within the mixture would bring additional challenges for the inference of the number of contributors (NOC) and the construction of probabilistic genotyping models. To evaluate the influence of potential kinship on the individual identification of the person of interest (POI), we conducted simulations of two-person (2 P) and three-person (3 P) DNA mixtures containing unrelated or related contributors (parent-child, full-sibling, and uncle-nephew) at different mixing ratios (for 2 P: 1:1, 4:1, 9:1, and 19:1; for 3 P: 1:1:1, 2:1:1, 5:4:1, and 10:5:1), and performed massively parallel sequencing (MPS) using MGIEasy Signature Identification Library Prep Kit on MGI platform. In addition, in silico simulations of mixtures with unrelated and related contributors were also performed. In this study, we evaluated 1): the MPS performance; 2) the influence of multiple genetic markers on determining the presence of related contributors and inferring the NOC within the mixture; 3) the probability distribution of MAC (maximum allele count) and TAC (total allele count) based on in silico mixture profiles; 4) trends in LR values with and without considering kinship in mixtures with related and unrelated contributors; 5) trends in LR values with length- and sequence-based STR genotypes. Results indicated that multiple numbers and types of genetic markers positively influenced kinship and NOC inference in a mixture. The LR values of POI were strongly dependent on the mixing ratio. Non- and correct-kinship hypotheses essentially did not affect the individual identification of the major POI; the correct kinship hypothesis yielded more conservative LR values; the incorrect kinship hypothesis did not necessarily lead to the failure of POI individual identification. However, it is noteworthy that these considerations could lead to uncertain outcomes in the identification of minor contributors. Compared to length-based STR genotyping, using sequence-based STR genotype increases the individual identification power of the POI, concurrently improving the accuracy of mixing ratio inference using EuroForMix. In conclusion, the MGIEasy Signature Identification Library Prep kit demonstrated robust individual identification power, which is a viable MPS panel for forensic DNA mixture interpretations, whether involving unrelated or related contributors.

Addressing uncertain assumptions in DNA evidence evaluation

Evidential value of DNA mixtures is typically expressed by a likelihood ratio. However, selecting appropriate propositions can be contentious, because assumptions may need to be made around, for example, the contribution of a complainant's profile, or relatedness between contributors. A choice made one way or another disregards any uncertainty that may be present about such an assumption. To address this, a complex proposition that considers multiple sub-propositions with different assumptions may be more appropriate. While the use of complex propositions has been advocated in the literature, the uptake in casework has been limited. We provide a mathematical framework for evaluating DNA evidence given complex propositions and discuss its implementation in the DBLR™ software. The software simultaneously handles multiple mixed samples, reference profiles and relationships as described by a pedigree, which unlocks a variety of applications. We provide several examples to illustrate how complex propositions can efficiently evaluate DNA evidence. The addition of this feature to DBLR™ provides a tool to approach the long-accepted, but often impractical suggestion that propositions should be exhaustive within a case context.

Evaluation of large-scale highly polymorphic microhaplotypes in complex DNA mixtures analysis using RMNE method

DNA mixture interpretation is one of the most challenging problems in forensics. Complex DNA mixtures are more difficult to analyze when there are more than two contributors or related contributors. Microhaplotypes (MHs) are polymorphic genetic markers recently discovered and employed in DNA mixture analysis. However, the evidentiary interpretation of the MH genotyping data needs more debate. The Random Man Not Excluded (RMNE) method analyzes DNA mixtures without using allelic peak height data or the number of contributors (NoC) assumptions. This study aimed to assess how well RMNE interpreted mixed MH genotyping data. We classified the MH loci from the 1000 Genomes Project database into groups based on their Ae values. Then we performed simulations of DNA mixtures with 2-10 unrelated contributors and DNA mixtures with a pair of sibling contributors. For each simulated DNA mixture, incorrectly included ratios were estimated for three types of non-contributors: random men, parents of contributors, and siblings of contributors. Meanwhile, RMNE probability was calculated for contributors and three types of non-contributors, allowing loci mismatch. The results showed that the MH number, the MH Ae values, and the NoC affected the RMNE probability of the mixture and the incorrectly included ratio of non-contributors. When there were more MHs, MHs with higher Ae values, and a mixture with less NoC, the RMNE probability, and the incorrectly included ratio decreased. The existence of kinship in mixtures complicated the mixture interpretation. Contributors' relatives as non-contributors and related contributors in the mixture increased the demands on the genetic markers to identify the contributors correctly. When 500 highly polymorphic MHs with Ae values higher than 5 were used, the four individual types could be distinguished according to the RMNE probabilities. This study reveals the promising potential of MH as a genetic marker for mixed DNA interpretation and the broadening of RMNE as a parameter indicating the relationship of a specific individual with a DNA mixture in the DNA database search.

A Review of Probabilistic Genotyping Systems: EuroForMix, DNAStatistX and STRmix™

Probabilistic genotyping has become widespread. EuroForMix and DNAStatistX are both based upon maximum likelihood estimation using a γ model, whereas STRmix™ is a Bayesian approach that specifies prior distributions on the unknown model parameters. A general overview is provided of the historical development of probabilistic genotyping. Some general principles of interpretation are described, including: the application to investigative vs. evaluative reporting; detection of contamination events; inter and intra laboratory studies; numbers of contributors; proposition setting and validation of software and its performance. This is followed by details of the evolution, utility, practice and adoption of the software discussed.