Early warning scores predict outcome in acute pancreatitis

Predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis: Current approaches and future directions

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a sudden-onset inflammatory disease of the pancreas. The severity of AP is classified into mild, moderate, and severe categories based on the presence and persistence of organ failure. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. It requires early recognition for appropriate timely management. Prognostic scores for predicting SAP incorporating many clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters have been developed in the past. However, all of these prognostic scores have low positive predictive value for SAP and some of these scores require >24 h for assessment. There is a need to develop biomarkers that can accurately identify patients at risk for SAP early in the course of the presentation. In this review, we aim to provide a summary of the most commonly utilized prognostic scores for AP and discuss future directions.

Severe Acute Pancreatitis Prediction: A Model Derived From a Prospective Registry Cohort

Background Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a mortality rate as high as 40%. Early identification of SAP is required to appropriately triage and direct initial therapies. The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model that identifies patients at risk for developing SAP of patients managed according to a guideline-based standardized early medical management (EMM) protocol. Methods This single-center study included all patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (AP) and managed with the EMM protocol Methodist Acute Pancreatitis Protocol (MAPP) between April 2017 and September 2022. Classification and regression tree (CART®; Professional Extended Edition, version 8.0; Salford Systems, San Diego, CA), univariate, and logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a scoring system for AP severity prediction. The accuracy of the scoring system was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results A total of 516 patients with mild (n=436) or moderately severe and severe (n=80) AP were analyzed. CART analysis identified the cutoff values: creatinine (CR) (1.15 mg/dL), white blood cells (WBC) (10.5 × 109/L), procalcitonin (PCT) (0.155 ng/mL), and systemic inflammatory response system (SIRS). The prediction model was built with a multivariable logistic regression analysis, which identified CR, WBC, PCT, and SIRS as the main predictors of severity. When CR and only one other predictor value (WBC, PCT, or SIRS) met thresholds, then the probability of predicting SAP was >30%. The probability of predicting SAP was 72% (95%CI: 0.59-0.82) if all four of the main predictors were greater than the cutoff values. Conclusions Baseline laboratory cutoff values were identified and a logistic regression-based prognostic model was developed to identify patients treated with a standardized EMM who were at risk for SAP.

Oxid Comparative Analysis of the Significance of Bisap and Mews Score for an Early Assessment of Illness Severity and Treatment Outcome of Acute Pancreatitis

The aim of this study was to determine the significance of the use of the BISAP score, which is specific for patients with AP, in relation to the application of the MEWS score that is important for assessing the condition of critically ill patients in intensive care units, but is not specific for patients with AP. The research was conducted as a cohort prospective study and included patients of both sexes, older than 18 and diagnosed with AP. BISAP and MEWS score were monitored at least at four time points: on admission to the hospital (zero), 48 hours, 72 hours and 7 days after admission to the hospital.

High levels of discrimination between patients with fatal outcome and cured patients are determined in both cases, with discrimination at MEWS being somewhat higher than BISAP score. The BISAP0 had the best discrimination for BISAP score, AUROC (0.807) and also MEWS0 for MEWS score, AUROC (0.899). In our research, the highest sensitivity was shown by BISAP7d (92.1%) and MEWS48 (88.1%), and a high specificity of 87.5% had BISAP score, 48h, 72h and MEWS score at all four points of measurement.

BISAP score has a better prognostic value in relation to the form of pancreatitis, the development of complications and the outcome. However, the calculation of the MEWS score is based on monitoring the basic vital parameters so that its application is much simpler and does not require additional costs.

The Role of Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) in the Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis

Objectives

Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a reliable, safe, instant, and inexpensive score for prognosticating patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) due to its ability to reflect ongoing changes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome associated with AP. Our study sought to determine an optimal MEWS value in predicting severity in AP and determine its accuracy in doing so.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with AP and admitted to a single institution were analyzed to determine the value of MEWS in identifying severe AP (SAP). The highest MEWS (hMEWS) score for the day and the mean of all the scores of a given day (mMEWS) were determined for each day. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive values (PPV) were calculated for the optimal MEWS values obtained.

Results

Two hundred patients were included in the study. The data suggested that an hMEWS value > 2 on day one is most accurate in predicting SAP, with a specificity of 90.8% and PPV of 83.3%. An mMEWS of > 1.2 on day two was the most accurate in predicting SAP, with a sensitivity of 81.2%, specificity of 76.6%, PPV of 69.8%, and NPV of 85.9%. These were found to be more accurate than previous studies.

Conclusions

MEWS provides a novel, easy, instant, repeatable, and reliable prognostic score that is comparable, if not superior, to existing scoring systems. However, its true value may lie in its use in resource-limited settings such as primary health care centers.

Cancer cells invasion to the gastric bare area adipose tissue: a poor prognostic predictor for gastric cancer

Background

The relationship between gastric bare area adipose tissues invasion (GBAI) confirmed pathologically and the prognosis of gastric cancer (GC) patients is undefined. Till present, there has not been literature investigating this phenomenon. Here, we aimed at analyzing the implication of GBAI in GC.

Methods

The data of 1822 patients who underwent radical surgery between January 2000 and December 2013 at the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were retrieved. Pathologically, tumor deposits (TDs) located > 5 mm from the leading edge of the primary tumor and the lymph nodes (LNs) station number 1, 2, 7, and 9 were considered GBAI. Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox’s proportional hazards model were employed to analyze.

Results

Two hundred and five (11.3%) patients were pathologically diagnosed with GBAI, which was more commonly found in proximal or linitis lastica than distal GC (P < 0.001). There was significant difference in 5-year survival between patients with and without GBAI for stages IIB, IIIA, IIIB, and IIIC, respectively (P < 0.009 for IIB, IIIA, and IIIB; P = 0.021 for IIIC). Among the 205 GBAI patients, 61 had detailed radiological follow-up data in which 26 (34.7%) were found to have retroperitoneal infiltration, 27 (36.0%) had peritoneal metastasis, 10 (13.3%) had hematogenous metastasis, 16 (21.3%) had lymphatic metastasis, and 16 (21.3%) had others.

Conclusions

GBAI was identified as a predictor of unfavorable prognosis for GC and was more commonly found in the proximal or linitis plastica of the stomach than in distal stomach. Retroperitoneal infiltration was one of the most commonly identified metastatic route for GC associated with GBAI after radical surgery.

[Epidemiology, initial diagnosis, and therapy of unexplained abdominal pain in the emergency department]

BACKGROUND

Abdominal pain is one of the most common symptoms of patients who present to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to collect current epidemiological data, the frequency of these findings, and the measures that derived from them.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis in the period between January 1 and June 30, 2016, including all patients who presented to the ED of the Caritas Hospital St. Josef in Regensburg (teaching hospital with an academic urology and gynecology department, about 32,000 patients in the ED per year) and were categorized as "abdominal pain in adults" using the Manchester Triage System (MTS).

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 1417 patients (9.8% of all ED patients). The admission rate was 48.2%. Vomiting and fever as concomitant symptoms made hospitalization more likely (p = 0.00). Almost half of the patients had nonspecific abdominal pain (28.2%), gynecological causes (13.2%), or suspected acute appendicitis (6.7%). In all, 10% of patients received an abdominal CT investigation; 73% of the patients presented in the time from 08:00-20:00 h, and more frequently on weekdays (74.2%). Of these patients, 6.4% returned after discharge because of persisting or worsening symptoms. Finally, 58.6% of outpatients and 77.5% of inpatients received further treatment recommendations for new pharmacologic therapy (e.g., analgesics, proton pump inhibitors, antibiotics).

CONCLUSION

A variety of epidemiological data of our collective could be analyzed, which should be transferable to many other German EDs. The MTS shows a high reliability in terms of conversion rate in abdominal pain; despite comprehensive emergency diagnostics, a relevant proportion of complaints remain unclear.

Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: systematic review and critical appraisal of methodology

OBJECTIVE

To provide an overview and critical appraisal of early warning scores for adult hospital patients.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Embase until June 2019.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Studies describing the development or external validation of an early warning score for adult hospital inpatients.

RESULTS

13 171 references were screened and 95 articles were included in the review. 11 studies were development only, 23 were development and external validation, and 61 were external validation only. Most early warning scores were developed for use in the United States (n=13/34, 38%) and the United Kingdom (n=10/34, 29%). Death was the most frequent prediction outcome for development studies (n=10/23, 44%) and validation studies (n=66/84, 79%), with different time horizons (the most frequent was 24 hours). The most common predictors were respiratory rate (n=30/34, 88%), heart rate (n=28/34, 83%), oxygen saturation, temperature, and systolic blood pressure (all n=24/34, 71%). Age (n=13/34, 38%) and sex (n=3/34, 9%) were less frequently included. Key details of the analysis populations were often not reported in development studies (n=12/29, 41%) or validation studies (n=33/84, 39%). Small sample sizes and insufficient numbers of event patients were common in model development and external validation studies. Missing data were often discarded, with just one study using multiple imputation. Only nine of the early warning scores that were developed were presented in sufficient detail to allow individualised risk prediction. Internal validation was carried out in 19 studies, but recommended approaches such as bootstrapping or cross validation were rarely used (n=4/19, 22%). Model performance was frequently assessed using discrimination (development n=18/22, 82%; validation n=69/84, 82%), while calibration was seldom assessed (validation n=13/84, 15%). All included studies were rated at high risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Early warning scores are widely used prediction models that are often mandated in daily clinical practice to identify early clinical deterioration in hospital patients. However, many early warning scores in clinical use were found to have methodological weaknesses. Early warning scores might not perform as well as expected and therefore they could have a detrimental effect on patient care. Future work should focus on following recommended approaches for developing and evaluating early warning scores, and investigating the impact and safety of using these scores in clinical practice.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017053324.

Development of the National Early Warning Score-Calcium Model for Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Acute Pancreatitis

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to develop a new model on the basis of the National Early Warning Score to predict intensive care unit admission and the mortality of patients with acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department were enrolled. The values of the National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis in predicting intensive care unit admission and mortality of patients with acute pancreatitis were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 379 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled; 77 patients (20.3%) were admitted to the intensive care unit and 14 (3.7%) died. The National Early Warning Score and calcium level were identified as independent risk factors of intensive care unit admission. Serum calcium exhibited a moderate correlation with National Early Warning Score (r = -0.46; P < 0.001), Modified Early Warning Score (r = -0.37; P < 0.001), and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (r = -0.39; P < 0.001). A new model called National Early Warning Score-calcium was developed by combining National Early Warning Score and calcium blood test result, which had larger areas under the curve for predicting intensive care unit admission and mortality than the other 3 scoring systems.

DISCUSSION

A new model developed by combining National Early Warning Score and calcium exhibited better value in predicting the prognosis of acute pancreatitis than the models involving National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis alone.

Intravenous omega-3 fatty acids are associated with better clinical outcome and less inflammation in patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis: A randomised double blind controlled trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Omega-3 fatty acids (FA) can ameliorate the hyper-inflammatory response that occurs in conditions such as severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and this may improve clinical outcome. We tested the hypothesis that parenteral omega-3 FA from a lipid emulsion that includes fish oil could be beneficial in patients with predicted SAP by reducing C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration (primary outcome), and modulating the inflammatory response and improving clinical outcome (secondary outcomes).

METHODS

In a phase II randomized double-blind single-centre controlled trial, patients with predicted SAP were randomised to receive a daily infusion of fish oil containing lipid emulsion (Lipidem® 20%, BBraun) for 7 days (n = 23) or a daily infusion of a lipid emulsion without fish oil (Lipofundin® MCT 20%, BBraun) (n = 22).

RESULTS

On admission, both groups had comparable pancreatitis predicted severity and APACHE II scores. Administration of fish oil resulted in lower total blood leukocyte number (P = 0.04), CRP (P = 0.013), interleukin-8 (P = 0.05) and intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (P = 0.01) concentrations, multiple organ dysfunction score, sequential organ failure assessment score (P = 0.004), early warning score (P = 0.01), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (P = 0.03) compared to the control group. The fish oil group had fewer new organ failures (P = 0.07), lower critical care admission rate (P = 0.06), shorter critical care stay (P = 0.03) and shorter total hospital stay (P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

It is concluded that intravenous administration of a fish oil containing lipid emulsion, a source of omega-3 FA, improves clinical outcomes in patients with predicted SAP, benefits that may be linked to reduced inflammation. CLINICALTRIALS.

GOV NUMBER

NCT01745861.

EU CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTER

EudraCT (2010-018660-16).

Building and verifying a severity prediction model of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on BISAP, MEWS and routine test indexes

PURPOSE

To discuss the value of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), serum Ca2+, similarly hereinafter, and red cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity grade of acute pancreatitis and to develop and verify a more accurate scoring system to predict the severity of AP.

METHODS

In 302 patients with AP, we calculated BISAP and MEWS scores and conducted regression analyses on the relationships of BISAP scoring, RDW, MEWS, and serum Ca2+ with the severity of AP using single-factor logistics. The variables with statistical significance in the single-factor logistic regression were used in a multi-factor logistic regression model; forward stepwise regression was used to screen variables and build a multi-factor prediction model. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was constructed, and the significance of multi- and single-factor prediction models in predicting the severity of AP using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was evaluated. The internal validity of the model was verified through bootstrapping.

RESULTS

Among 302 patients with AP, 209 had mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) and 93 had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). According to single-factor logistic regression analysis, we found that BISAP, MEWS and serum Ca2+ are prediction indexes of the severity of AP (P-value<0.001), whereas RDW is not a prediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05). The multi-factor logistic regression analysis showed that BISAP and serum Ca2+ are independent prediction indexes of AP severity (P-value<0.001), and MEWS is not an independent prediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05); BISAP is negatively related to serum Ca2+ (r=-0.330, P-value<0.001). The constructed model is as follows: ln()=7.306+1.151*BISAP-4.516*serum Ca2+. The predictive ability of each model for SAP follows the order of the combined BISAP and serum Ca2+ prediction model>Ca2+>BISAP. There is no statistical significance for the predictive ability of BISAP and serum Ca2+ (P-value>0.05); however, there is remarkable statistical significance for the predictive ability using the newly built prediction model as well as BISAP and serum Ca2+ individually (P-value<0.01). Verification of the internal validity of the models by bootstrapping is favorable.

CONCLUSION

BISAP and serum Ca2+ have high predictive value for the severity of AP. However, the model built by combining BISAP and serum Ca2+ is remarkably superior to those of BISAP and serum Ca2+ individually. Furthermore, this model is simple, practical and appropriate for clinical use.

Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Establishment and Application of Early Risk Stratification Method for Acute Abdominal Pain in Adults

BACKGROUND

Acute abdominal pain is a common symptom of emergency patients. The severity was always evaluated based on physicians' clinical experience. The aim of this study was to establish an early risk stratification method (ERSM) for addressing adults with acute abdominal pain, which would guide physicians to take appropriate and timely measures following the established health-care policies.

METHODS

In Cohort 1, the records of 490 patients with acute abdominal pain that developed within the past 72 h were enrolled in this study. Measurement data and numeration data were compared with analysis of variance and Chi-square test, respectively. Multiple regression analysis calculated odd ratio (OR) value. P and OR values showed the impacts of factors. ERSM was established by clinical experts and statistical experts according to Youden index. In Cohort 2, data from 305 patients with acute abdominal pain were enrolled to validate the accuracy of the ERSM. Then, ERSM was prospectively used in clinical practice.

RESULTS

The ERSM was established based on the scores of the patient's clinical characteristics: right lower abdominal pain + 3 × diffuse abdominal pain + 3 × cutting abdominal pain + 3 × pain frequency + 3 × pain duration + fever + 2 × vomiting + 5 × stop defecation + 3 × history of abdominal surgery + hypertension history + diabetes history + hyperlipidemia history + pulse + 2 × skin yellowing + 2 × sclera yellowing + 2 × double lung rale + 10 × unconsciousness + 2 × right lower abdominal tenderness + 5 × diffuse abdominal tenderness + 4 × peritoneal irritation + 4 × bowel sounds abnormal + 10 × suspicious diagnosis + white blood cell count + hematocrit + glucose + 2 × blood urea nitrogen + 3 × creatine + 4 × serum albumin + alanine aminotransferase + total bilirubin + 3 × conjugated bilirubin + amylase. When the score was <18, the patient did not need hospitalization. A score of ≥18 and <38 indicated that the patient should be under observation or hospitalized. A score of ≥38 and <50 indicated the need for an emergent operation. A score of ≥50 indicated the need for admission to the Intensive Care Unit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ERSM in Cohorts 1 and 2 were 0.979 and 0.988, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This ERSM was an accurate and reliable method for making an early determination of the severity of acute abdominal pain. There was the strong correlation between scores of ERSM and health-care decision-making.

Accuracy of contrast-enhanced ultrasound compared with conventional ultrasound in acute pancreatitis: Diagnosis and complication monitoring

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) has been used for diagnosing acute pancreatitis (AP), particularly severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). However, the diagnostic difference between CEUS and conventional ultrasonography (CUS) for AP and SAP has not been reported. The aim of the present study was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of CUS and CEUS for AP. A total of 196 patients clinically diagnosed with AP were selected. All patients underwent CUS, CEUS and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) within 72 h. CECT was considered the gold standard. Pancreatic size, peripancreatic fluid collection (PPFC) and splenic vessel complications were the variables observed by CUS and CEUS. The differences in the variables among the three methods were analyzed using the χ² test and statistical analysis software. Significant differences in pancreatic size, PPFC and splenic vessel complications in AP were observed between CEUS and CUS (P<0.05). χ² test results indicated that CEUS significantly differed from CUS in terms of having a higher diagnostic accuracy for AP and SAP (P<0.05). The results indicate that CEUS is a reliable method for the diagnosis and monitoring of AP and SAP, and may be substituted for CECT.

Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of adverse outcomes of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Most acute pancreatitis risk scoring systems use total white blood cell counts (WBC) as one of the risk factors. The value of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis has not been previously evaluated.

METHODS

This observational study included 283 patients admitted to a tertiary center between 2004 and 2007. The patients were arranged into tertiles according to NLR and WBC values. The primary outcomes were intensive care unit (ICU) admission and length of stay (LOS) in the hospital.

RESULTS

According to NLR tertiles, patients in the 3rd tertile (NLR ≥7.6) had significantly more ICU admissions (17 vs. 2.2%, p < 0.0001) and longer average LOS (6.2 vs. 4.2 days, p < 0.002) compared with those in the 1st tertile (NLR <3.6). According to WBC tertiles, patients in the 3rd tertile had more ICU admissions (12.6 vs. 6.2%, p = 0.12) and a longer average LOS (5.8 vs. 4.4 days, p = 0.059) compared to patients in the 1st WBC tertile, but this did not reach statistical significance. In the multivariate model including NLR, WBC and other predictors, only NLR tertiles (p < 0.0262) and modified early warning scores (p < 0.0025) were significant predictors of ICU admission. Likewise, in the multivariate model of LOS, only NLR and glucose level were significant predictors of longer LOS (p < 0.0161 and p < 0.0053, respectively).

CONCLUSION

NLR is superior to total WBC in predicting adverse outcomes of acute pancreatitis. According to our data, we suggest using the NLR cutoff value of >4.7 as a simple indicator of severity in patients presenting with acute pancreatitis. and IAP.

Can contrast-enhanced ultrasound evaluate the severity of acute pancreatitis?

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the ability of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) in the assessment of acute pancreatitis (AP), as well as its diagnostic accuracy in the evaluation of the severity of pancreatitis.

METHODS

A prospective double-blind study was carried out in 33 AP patients from May 2007 to January 2008. Each patient underwent both CEUS and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) with the time interval between two examinations less than 72 h. Using CECT as gold standard, the ability of CEUS to diagnose pancreatic necrosis as well as peripancreatic effusion and/or complications, and its diagnostic value in the evaluation of the severity of pancreatitis, were investigated. Balthazar's grading system was used to measure CT and ultrasound severity indices (CTSI and USSI), and the correlation between CTSI and USSI was tested by Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

A strong correlation between CTSI and USSI was found (r = 0.92, P < 0.01).The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive value of CEUS in the diagnosis of pancreatic parenchyma necrosis were 90, 95, 94, 90 and 95%, in the diagnosis of peripancreatic effusion and/or complications were 83, 100, 93, 100 and 91%, and in the diagnosis of severe pancreatitis were 97, 67, 94, 97 and 67%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

CEUS has shown to be of clinical value in the assessment of pancreatic necrosis as well as peripancreatic complications in AP and has a high diagnostic accuracy in the evaluation of the severity of pancreatitis. Further studies are needed to add it to the diagnostic algorithm for acute pancreatitis.

Detecting critical illness outside the ICU: the role of track and trigger systems

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Critical illness is often preceded by physiological deterioration. Track and trigger systems are intended to facilitate the timely recognition of patients with potential or established critical illness outside critical care areas. The aim of this article is to review the evidence for the use of such systems.

RECENT FINDINGS

Existing track and trigger systems have low sensitivity, low positive predictive values, and high specificity. They often fail to identify patients who need additional care and have not been shown to improve outcomes. The development of such systems must be based on robust methodological and statistical principles. At present, few track and trigger systems meet these standards.

SUMMARY

Although track and trigger systems, combined with appropriate response algorithms, have the potential to improve the recognition and management of critical illness, further work is required to validate their utility.

Prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis: a systematic review of the published evidence

OBJECTIVE

In this review, we focus on studies that examined such prognostic indices in relation to predicting a fatal outcome from pancreatitis.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common emergency, and early identification of high-risk patients can be difficult. For this reason, a plethora of different prognostic variables and scoring systems have been assessed to see if they can reliably predict the severity of pancreatitis and/or subsequent mortality.

METHODS

All studies that focused on AP, including retrospective series and prospective trials, were retrieved and analysed for factors that could influence mortality. Articles that analysed factors influencing the severity of the disease or the manifestation of disease-related complications were excluded.

RESULTS

58 articles meeting the inclusion criteria were identified. Among the various factors investigated, APACHE II seemed to have the highest positive predictive value (69%). However, most prognostic variables and scores showed high negative predictive values but suboptimal values for positive predictive power.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the proliferation of scoring systems for grading AP, none are ideal for the prediction of mortality. With the exception of the APACHE II, the other scores and indexes do not have a high degree of sensitivity, specificity and predictive values.

Protective effects of Salvia miltiorrhizae on the hearts of rats with severe acute pancreatits or obstructive jaundice

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the therapeutic effects and mechanisms of Salvia miltiorrhizae (Danshen) in the treatment of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP)- or obstructive jaundice (OJ)-induced heart injury.

METHODS

A total of 288 rats were used for SAP- (n=108) and OJ-associated (n=180) experiments. The rats were randomly divided into sham-operated, model control, and Salvia miltiorrhizae-treated groups. According to the difference of time points after operation, SAP rats in each group were subdivided into 3, 6 and 12 h subgroups (n=12), whereas OJ rats were subdivided into 7, 14, 21, and 28 d subgroups (n=15). At the corresponding time points after operation, the mortality rates of the rats, the contents of endotoxin and phospholipase A2 (PLA2) in blood, and pathological changes of the hearts were investigated.

RESULTS

The numbers of dead SAP and OJ rats in the treated groups declined as compared with those in the model control group, but not significantly (P>0.05). The contents of endotoxin (at 6 and 12 h in SAP rats and on 7, 14, 21, and 28 d in OJ rats, respectively) and PLA2 (at 6 and 12 h in SAP rats and on 28 d in OJ rats, respectively) in the treated group were significantly lower than those in the model control group (P<0.01 and P<0.001, respectively). Besides, myocardial pathological injuries were mitigated in SAP and OJ rats.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we found that Salvia miltiorrhizae improved myocardial pathological changes, reduced the content of PLA2 in blood, and decreased the mortality rates of SAP and OJ rats, exerting protective effects on the hearts of the rats.

Study on protecting effects of Baicalin and Octreotide on hepatic injury in rats with severe acute pancreatitis

AIM: To investigate the protective effects and mechanisms of Baicalin and Octreotide on hepatic injury in rats with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS: The SAP rat models were prepared and randomly assigned to the model control group, Baicalin treated group, and Octreotide treated group while other healthy rats were assigned to the sham-operated group. Rat mortality, levels of ALT, AST, liver and pancreas pathological changes in all groups were observed at 3, 6 and 12 h after operation. Tissue microarray (TMA) sections of hepatic tissue were prepared to observe expression levels of Bax, Bcl-2 protein and Caspase-3, and changes of apoptotic indexes.

RESULTS: Rat survival at 12 h, expression levels of Bax, Caspase-3 protein and apoptotic indexes of liver were all significantly higher in treated groups than in model control group. While the liver and pancreas pathological scores, contents of ALT, AST, and expression levels of Bcl-2 protein were all lower in treated groups than in the model control group.

CONCLUSION: Both Baicalin and Octreotide can protect rats with SAP by decreasing the contents of ALT, AST and expression levels of Bcl-2 protein, and improving the expression levels of Bax protein, Caspase-3 protein, and inducing apoptosis.

Preoperative early warning scores can predict in-hospital mortality and critical care admission following emergency surgery

BACKGROUND

EWS is frequently used to monitor acute admissions requiring emergency surgery. This study examined preoperative early warning scoring (EWS) and its ability to predict mortality and critical care admission. Postoperative EWS was also evaluated as a predictor of mortality.

METHODS

Preoperative EWS, age, physiologic and operative severity (POSSUM) scores, ASA grade, and serology were compared in 280 patients undergoing emergency surgery.

RESULTS

Two hundred eighty patients were identified with a mortality of 15%. Among the physiological scoring systems, ASA grade and POSSUM scores were the best predictors of mortality (AUC values of 0.81). EWS, APACHE II, and age were the next best predictors (AUC values of 0.70). Postoperative APACHE II and EWS both predicted mortality. EWS on day 2 postoperatively was the best overall predictor of mortality of all the variables studied (AUC value of 0.83). Survival between patients with "improving or stable" EWS and those with "deteriorating or failing to improve" EWS was also found to be significantly different (P < 0.001). In addition, both EWS on admission and EWS 1 h preoperatively were found to predict critical care requirement postoperatively (AUC value of 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

EWS can predict the need for critical care admission and mortality following emergency surgery. In particular, the progression of EWS preoperatively, that is, whether scores improve or deteriorate, is a highly significant factor in predicting survival following emergency surgery. These findings support the use of EWS in monitoring the acute surgical patient.

Predictors of severity and survival in acute pancreatitis: validation of the efficacy of early warning scores

OBJECTIVES

Early Warning Scores (EWS) is a widely used scoring system monitoring patient progress, which we have previously shown to predict outcome from acute pancreatitis. This study examined EWS from a larger group of patients to confirm if this predictive value held true.

METHODS

The EWS scores were compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, modified organ dysfunction scores, Imrie scores, computed tomography grading scores, and Ranson criteria for 181 admissions with acute pancreatitis. The accuracy of EWS in predicting outcome was determined by receiver operator characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 181 patients were identified with acute pancreatitis. On day 1 of admission, APACHE II scores were the most accurate predictor of mortality with an area under curve (AUC) values of 0.876, closely followed by EWS (AUC, 0.827). By day 2 and 3 after admission, the EWS was the most accurate predictor of mortality (AUC, 0.910 and 0.934, respectively). The APACHE II was the second most accurate scoring system at 48 and 72 hours (AUC, 0.892 and 0.911, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The EWSs on days 2 and 3 after admission are sensitive and specific in predicting mortality from acute pancreatitis. It is as accurate as the APACHE II scores and easier to implement in daily practice.

Gastric bare area and left adrenal gland involvement on abdominal computed tomography and their prognostic value in acute pancreatitis

To demonstrate the CT manifestations of gastric bare area involvement (GBAI) and left adrenal gland involvement (LAGI) in acute pancreatitis (AP) and evaluate their prognostic value. From January 2003 to December 2006, CT examinations of 116 patients with AP were retrospectively reviewed. There were 34 (29.3%) patients with GBAI showing haziness and streaky density or fluid collection in the gastric bare area, and 18 (15.5%) with LAGI showing deformity and hypoattenuation of left adrenal gland. The mean duration of hospital stay in patients with GBAI and LAGI was longer than that of patients without (P<0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of GBAI for predicting complications were 43.3% (0.31, 0.55) and 89.8% (0.81, 0.98), respectively; and 83.3% (0.36, 1.00) and 73.6% (0.65, 0.82) for predicting mortality. A patient with GBAI was 6.7 (2.4, 19.1) and 14.0 (1.6, 124.6) times more likely to have complications and die than was a patient without. The sensitivity and specificity of LAGI for predicting complications were 23.9% (0.14, 0.34) and 95.9% (0.86, 0.99), respectively, and 66.7% (0.22, 0.96) and 87.3% (0.81, 0.94) for predicting mortality. A patient with LAGI was 7.4 (1.6, 33.8) and 13.7 (2.3, 81.9) times more likely to have complications and die than was a patient without. Our results showed that GBAI and LAGI were characteristic CT findings in AP and could serve as useful prognostic indicators for this disease.