Risky business: Modeling mortality risk near the urban-wildland interface for a large carnivore

Selection of den sites and chronology of denning by black bears in the eastern Sierra Nevada and western Great Basin

Use of dens during winter is an important strategy for American black bears (Ursus americanus) for both energy conservation and reproduction; and occupancy of suitable den sites has implications for reproductive fitness. Denning strategies may change as a result of changing climatic conditions and habitat loss. Black bears occupy arid environments in the eastern Sierra Nevada and the western ranges of the Great Basin Ecosystem. Our objectives were to identify: (1) which physical characteristics of habitat influenced selection of den sites at multiple spatial scales and (2) which environmental factors influenced timing of entrance and exit of dens by females and males. We evaluated selection of den sites by black bears at three spatial scales (300, 1000, and 4000 m) from 2011 to 2022. Terrain ruggedness was important for selection of den sites at all spatial scales. Within a 300-m buffer from the den, bears selected den sites with rugged terrain, lower horizontal visibility, and greater canopy cover, resulting in more concealment and protection than that of the surrounding environment. Within 1000- and 4000-m buffers around each den, bears selected den sites with rugged terrain, northern aspects, and steep slopes. At the 4000-m scale, we observed interactions between sex with slope and distance to roads; females selected den sites on steeper slopes and closer to roads than did males. Females remained in the dens longer than males by entering earlier in the autumn and exiting later in the spring. Male bears exited their dens earlier with increasing consecutive days above freezing temperatures, but that relationship was weak for females. Knowing what characteristics are important for selection of den sites, and influence timing of denning, will be important for understanding how shifting climatic patterns will affect bears, particularly in arid environments that may be prone to wider fluctuations in climatic drivers of denning in the future.

Death comes for us all: relating movement-integrated habitat selection and social behavior to human-associated and disease-related mortality among gray wolves

Avoiding death affects biological processes, including behavior. Habitat selection, movement, and sociality are highly flexible behaviors that influence the mortality risks and subsequent fitness of individuals. In the Anthropocene, animals are experiencing increased risks from direct human causes and increased spread of infectious diseases. Using integrated step selection analysis, we tested how the habitat selection, movement, and social behaviors of gray wolves vary in the two months prior to death due to humans (being shot or trapped) or canine distemper virus (CDV). We further tested how those behaviors vary as a prelude to death. We studied populations of wolves that occurred under two different management schemes: a national park managed for conservation and a provincially managed multi-use area. Behaviors that changed prior to death were strongly related to how an animal eventually died. Wolves killed by humans moved slower than wolves that survived and selected to be nearer roads closer in time to their death. Wolves that died due to CDV moved progressively slower as they neared death and reduced their avoidance of wet habitats. All animals, regardless of dying or living, maintained selection to be near packmates across time, which seemingly contributed to disease dynamics in the packs infected with CDV. There were no noticeable differences in behavior between the two management areas. Overall, habitat selection, movement, and sociality interact to put individuals and groups at greater risks, influencing their cause-specific mortality.

Quantifying anthropogenic wolf mortality in relation to hunting regulations and landscape attributes across North America

Understanding the types and magnitude of human‐caused mortality is essential for maintaining viable large carnivore populations. We used a database of cause‐specific mortality to examine how hunting regulations and landscape configurations influenced human‐caused mortality of North American gray wolves (Canis lupus). Our dataset included 21 studies that monitored the fates of 3564 wolves and reported 1442 mortalities. Human‐caused mortality accounted for 61% of mortality overall, with 23% due to illegal harvest, 16% due to legal harvest, and 12% the result of management removal. The overall proportion of anthropogenic wolf mortality was lowest in areas with an open hunting season compared to areas with a closed hunting season or mixed hunting regulations, suggesting that harvest mortality was neither fully additive nor compensatory. Proportion of mortality from management removal was reduced in areas with an open hunting season, suggesting that legal harvest may reduce human‐wolf conflicts or alternatively that areas with legal harvest have less potential for management removals (e.g., less livestock depredation). Proportion of natural habitat was negatively correlated with the proportion of anthropogenic and illegal harvest mortality. Additionally, the proportion of mortality due to illegal harvest increased with greater natural habitat fragmentation. The observed association between large patches of natural habitat and reductions in several sources of anthropogenic wolf mortality reiterate the importance of habitat preservation to maintain wolf populations. Furthermore, effective management of wolf populations via implementation of harvest may reduce conflict with humans. Effective wolf conservation will depend on holistic strategies that integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors to facilitate their long‐term coexistence with humans.

Mapping and modeling human-black bear interactions in the Catskills region of New York using resource selection probability functions

Black bears (Ursus americanus) are an iconic and common species throughout much of the United States and people regularly interact with these large predators without conflict. However, negative interactions between people and bears can manifest in conflicts that can hinder conservation efforts. Black bears are highly attracted to anthropogenic sources of food, and negative interactions with people are primarily a product of trash mismanagement. In the Catskills region of New York State, home to a large population of black bears, over 400 such conflicts are reported each year. While the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) has seen progress recently in educating residents of the region on how to reduce unwanted interactions with bears, they have had less success educating the 12 million tourists that visit the Catskills each year. Understanding where conflict may occur in the future, and the environmental and anthropogenic factors that precede it, may help guide management strategies to reduce these unwanted interactions. Therefore, we designed resource selection probability functions (RSPFs) to examine the relationship between human-black bear conflicts in the Catskills with a suite of landscape and anthropogenic data, using conflicts reported to the DEC across the state of New York in 2018-2019. We found that human-black bear conflicts were more likely to occur in the residential areas of the Catskills on the urban-wildland interface; areas with relatively higher human population densities, away from dense forest, and further from heavily urbanized areas. While future work is needed to continuously validate our model predictions, our results will provide the DEC and other conservation managers in the Catskills the ability to create more targeted plans for mitigating unwanted human-black bear interactions, and provide a better understanding of the mechanisms driving human-carnivore interactions at an urban-wildland interface more generally.

The evolutionary consequences of human-wildlife conflict in cities

Human-wildlife interactions, including human-wildlife conflict, are increasingly common as expanding urbanization worldwide creates more opportunities for people to encounter wildlife. Wildlife-vehicle collisions, zoonotic disease transmission, property damage, and physical attacks to people or their pets have negative consequences for both people and wildlife, underscoring the need for comprehensive strategies that mitigate and prevent conflict altogether. Management techniques often aim to deter, relocate, or remove individual organisms, all of which may present a significant selective force in both urban and nonurban systems. Management-induced selection may significantly affect the adaptive or nonadaptive evolutionary processes of urban populations, yet few studies explicate the links among conflict, wildlife management, and urban evolution. Moreover, the intensity of conflict management can vary considerably by taxon, public perception, policy, religious and cultural beliefs, and geographic region, which underscores the complexity of developing flexible tools to reduce conflict. Here, we present a cross-disciplinary perspective that integrates human-wildlife conflict, wildlife management, and urban evolution to address how social-ecological processes drive wildlife adaptation in cities. We emphasize that variance in implemented management actions shapes the strength and rate of phenotypic and evolutionary change. We also consider how specific management strategies either promote genetic or plastic changes, and how leveraging those biological inferences could help optimize management actions while minimizing conflict. Investigating human-wildlife conflict as an evolutionary phenomenon may provide insights into how conflict arises and how management plays a critical role in shaping urban wildlife phenotypes.

Impact of Future Land Use Change on Large Carnivores Connectivity in the Polish Carpathians

The Polish Carpathians, like many mountain areas in Europe, are currently facing dynamic land use changes that will shape their future landscapes. As there are many different possible scenarios of potential change, we compared three different land use scenarios up until the year 2060 and assessed their impact on the potential habitat connectivity of two large carnivores—wolf (Canis lupus) and lynx (Lynx lynx). We first analysed the main directions of change within and outside the pan-European wildlife corridor located in the western part of the Polish Carpathians. Then we calculated and compared least-cost paths among randomly selected points for each land use scenario separately. Our results showed that the main direction of change—forest cover increase—may positively influence habitat connectivity for both wolf and lynx. However, due to the future spread of settlements, this positive impact might be locally limited. Therefore, to realise the potential conservation opportunities resulting from on-going land use changes, adequate orientation of spatial planning towards habitat connectivity is crucial.