Integrating habitat and partial survey data to estimate the regional population of a globally declining seabird species, the sooty shearwater

Individual differences in habitat selection mediate landscape level predictions of a functional response

Predicting future space use by animals requires models that consider both habitat availability and individual differences in habitat selection. The functional response in habitat selection posits animals adjust their habitat selection to availability, but population-level responses to availability may differ from individual responses. Generalized functional response (GFR) models account for functional responses by including fixed effect interactions between habitat availability and selection. Population-level resource selection functions instead account for individual selection responses to availability with random effects. We compared predictive performance of both approaches using a functional response in elk (Cervus canadensis) selection for mixed forest in response to road proximity, and avoidance of roads in response to mixed forest availability. We also investigated how performance changed when individuals responded differently to availability from the rest of the population. Individual variation in road avoidance decreased performance of both models (random effects: β = 0.69, 95% CI 0.47, 0.91; GFR: β = 0.38, 95% CI 0.05, 0.71). Changes in individual road and forest availability affected performance of neither model, suggesting individual responses to availability different from the functional response mediated performance. We also found that overall, both models performed similarly for predicting mixed forest selection (F_{1, 58} = 0.14, p = 0.71) and road avoidance (F_{1, 58} = 0.28, p = 0.60). GFR estimates were slightly better, but its larger number of covariates produced greater variance than the random effects model. Given this bias-variance trade-off, we conclude that neither model performs better for future space use predictions.

Combining survey and remotely sensed environmental data to estimate the habitat associations, abundance and distribution of breeding thin-billed prions Pachyptila belcheri and Wilson’s storm-petrels Oceanites oceanicus on a South Atlantic tussac island

Small petrels are the most abundant seabirds in the Southern Ocean. However, because they breed in burrows on remote and often densely vegetated islands, their colony sizes and conservation status remain poorly known. To estimate the abundance of these species on Bird Island in the Falkland archipelago, we systematically surveyed their breeding burrow density and occupancy across this near-pristine tussac (Poa flabellata)-covered island. By modelling burrow density as functions of topography and Sentinel 2 satellite-derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index data, we inferred habitat associations and predicted burrow abundance of the commonest species—Thin-billed Prions (Pachyptila belcheri) and Wilson’s Storm-petrels (Oceanites oceanicus). We estimate that there are 631,000 Thin-billed Prion burrows on the island (95% CI 496,000–904,000 burrows). Assuming that burrow occupancy lies between 12 and 97%, this equates to around 76,000–612,000 breeding pairs, making Bird Island the second or third largest P. belcheri colony in the world, holding approximately 3–27% of the species’ breeding population. We estimate that 8200–9800 (95% CI 5,200–18,300 pairs) pairs of Wilson’s Storm-petrels also breed on the island. Notably, the latter burrowed predominantly under and within tussac pedestals, whereas they are usually assumed to breed in rock cavities. Thin-billed Prions are declining in the Kerguelen archipelago, but their population trends in the Falklands are unknown. Given the wide confidence intervals around our own and other population estimates for these cryptic species, we recommend that their populations should be monitored regularly, at multiple sites.