Range expansion of an already widespread bee under climate change

Ecological forecasts of insect range dynamics: a broad range of taxa includes winners and losers under future climate

Species distribution models are the primary tools to project future species' distributions, but this complex task is influenced by data limitations and evolving best practices. The majority of the 53 studies we examined utilized correlative models and did not follow current best practices for validating retrospective or future environmental data layers. Despite this, a summary of results is largely unsurprising: shifts toward cooler regions, but otherwise mixed dynamics emphasizing winners and losers. Harmful insects were more likely to show positive outcomes compared with beneficial species. Our restricted ability to consider mechanisms complicates interpretation of any single study. To improve this area of modeling, more classic field and lab studies to uncover basic ecology and physiology are crucial.

Selection despite low genetic diversity and high gene flow in a rapid island invasion of the bumblebee, Bombus terrestris

Invasive species are predicted to adjust their morphological, physiological and life-history traits to adapt to their non-native environments. Although a loss of genetic variation during invasion may restrict local adaptation, introduced species often thrive in novel environments. Despite being founded by just a few individuals, Bombus terrestris (Hymenoptera: Apidae) has in less than 30 years successfully spread across the island of Tasmania (Australia), becoming abundant and competitive with native pollinators. We use RADseq to investigate what neutral and adaptive genetic processes associated with environmental and morphological variation allow B. terrestris to thrive as an invasive species in Tasmania. Given the widespread abundance of B. terrestris, we expected little genetic structure across Tasmania and weak signatures of environmental and morphological selection. We found high gene flow with low genetic diversity, although with significant isolation-by-distance and spatial variation in effective migration rates. Restricted migration was evident across the mid-central region of Tasmania, corresponding to higher elevations, pastural land, low wind speeds and low precipitation seasonality. Tajima's D indicated a recent population expansion extending from the south to the north of the island. Selection signatures were found for loci in relation to precipitation, wind speed and wing loading. Candidate loci were annotated to genes with functions related to cuticle water retention and insect flight muscle stability. Understanding how a genetically impoverished invasive bumblebee has rapidly adapted to a novel island environment provides further understanding about the evolutionary processes that determine successful insect invasions, and the potential for invasive hymenopteran pollinators to spread globally.

Range Dynamics of Striped Field Mouse (Apodemus agrarius) in Northern Eurasia under Global Climate Change Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models

The striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius Pallas, 1771) is a widespread species in Northern Eurasia. It damages crops and carries zoonotic pathogens. Its current and future range expansion under climate change may negatively affect public health and the economy, warranting further research to understand the ecological and invasive characteristics of the species. In our study, we used seven algorithms (GLM, GAM, GBS, FDA, RF, ANN, and MaxEnt) to develop robust ensemble species distribution models (eSDMs) under current (1970-2000) and future climate conditions derived from global circulation models (GCMs) for 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. Simulation of climate change included high-, medium-, and low-sensitivity GCMs under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We analyzed the habitat suitability across GCMs and scenarios by constructing geographical ranges and calculating their centroids. The results showed that the range changes depended on both the sensitivity of GCMs and scenario. The main trends were range expansion to the northeast and partial loss of habitat in the steppe area. The striped field mouse may form a continuous range from Central Europe to East Asia, closing the range gap that has existed for 12 thousand years. We present 49 eSDMs for the current and future distribution of A. agrarius (for 2000-2100) with quantitative metrics (gain, loss, change) of the range dynamics under global climate change. The most important predictor variables determining eSDMs are mean annual temperature, mean diurnal range of temperatures, the highest temperature of the warmest month, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the coldest month. These findings could help limit the population of the striped field mouse and predict distribution of the species under global climate change.

Vegetation complexity and nesting resource availability predict bee diversity and functional traits in community gardens

Urban gardens can support diverse bee communities through resource provision in resource poor environments. Yet the effects of local habitat and landscape factors on wild bee communities in cities is still insufficiently understood, nor is how this information could be applied to urban wildlife conservation. Here we investigate how taxonomic and functional diversity of wild bees and their traits in urban community gardens are related to garden factors and surrounding landscape factors (e.g., plant diversity, amount of bare ground, amount of nesting resources, amount of landscape imperviousness). Using active and passive methods in 18 community gardens in Berlin, Germany, we documented 26 genera and 102 species of bees. We found that higher plant species richness and plant diversity as well as higher amounts of deadwood in gardens leads to higher numbers of wild bee species and bee (functional) diversity. Furthermore, higher landscape imperviousness surrounding gardens correlates with more cavity nesting bees, whereas a higher amount of bare ground correlates with more ground-nesting bees. Pollen specialization was positively associated with plant diversity, but no factors strongly predicted the proportion of endangered bees. Our results suggest that, aside from foraging resources, nesting resources should be implemented in management for more pollinator-friendly gardens. If designed and managed using such evidence-based strategies, urban gardens can create valuable foraging and nesting habitats for taxonomically and functionally diverse bee communities in cities.

Climate change winners and losers among North American bumblebees

Mounting evidence suggests that climate change, agricultural intensification and disease are impacting bumblebee health and contributing to species’ declines. Identifying how these factors impact insect communities at large spatial and temporal scales is difficult, partly because species may respond in different ways. Further, the necessary data must span large spatial and temporal scales, which usually means they comprise aggregated, presence-only records collected using numerous methods (e.g. diversity surveys, educational collections, citizen-science projects, standardized ecological surveys). Here, we use occupancy models, which explicitly correct for biases in the species observation process, to quantify the effect of changes in temperature, precipitation and floral resources on bumblebee site occupancy over the past 12 decades in North America. We find no evidence of genus-wide declines in site occupancy, but do find that occupancy is strongly related to temperature, and is only weakly related to precipitation or floral resources. We also find that more species are likely to be climate change ‘losers’ than ‘winners’ and that this effect is primarily associated with changing temperature. Importantly, all trends were highly species-specific, highlighting that genus or community-wide measures may not reflect diverse species-specific patterns that are critical in guiding allocation of conservation resources.

Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai'i

Climate change is predicted to increase the risk of biological invasions by increasing the availability of climatically suitable regions for invasive species. Endemic species on oceanic islands are particularly sensitive to the impact of invasive species due to increased competition for shared resources and disease spread. In our study, we used an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) to predict habitat suitability for invasive bees under current and future climate scenarios in Hawai'i. SDMs projected on the invasive range were better predicted by georeferenced records from the invasive range in comparison to invasive SDMs predicted by records from the native range. SDMs estimated that climatically suitable regions for the eight invasive bees explored in this study will expand by ~934.8% (±3.4% SE). Hotspots for the invasive bees are predicted to expand toward higher elevation regions, although suitable habitat is expected to only progress up to 500 m in elevation in 2070. Given our results, it is unlikely that invasive bees will interact directly with endemic bees found at >500 m in elevation in the future. Management and conservation plans for endemic bees may be improved by understanding how climate change may exacerbate negative interactions between invasive and endemic bee species.

Wild bees as winners and losers: Relative impacts of landscape composition, quality, and climate

Wild bees, like many other taxa, are threatened by land-use and climate change, which, in turn, jeopardizes pollination of crops and wild plants. Understanding how land-use and climate factors interact is critical to predicting and managing pollinator populations and ensuring adequate pollination services, but most studies have evaluated either land-use or climate effects, not both. Furthermore, bee species are incredibly variable, spanning an array of behavioral, physiological, and life-history traits that can increase or decrease resilience to land-use or climate change. Thus, there are likely bee species that benefit, while others suffer, from changing climate and land use, but few studies have documented taxon-specific trends. To address these critical knowledge gaps, we analyzed a long-term dataset of wild bee occurrences from Maryland, Delaware, and Washington DC, USA, examining how different bee genera and functional groups respond to landscape composition, quality, and climate factors. Despite a large body of literature documenting land-use effects on wild bees, in this study, climate factors emerged as the main drivers of wild-bee abundance and richness. For wild-bee communities in spring and summer/fall, temperature and precipitation were more important predictors than landscape composition, landscape quality, or topography. However, relationships varied substantially between wild-bee genera and functional groups. In the Northeast USA, past trends and future predictions show a changing climate with warmer winters, more intense precipitation in winter and spring, and longer growing seasons with higher maximum temperatures. In almost all of our analyses, these conditions were associated with lower abundance of wild bees. Wild-bee richness results were more mixed, including neutral and positive relationships with predicted temperature and precipitation patterns. Thus, in this region and undoubtedly more broadly, changing climate poses a significant threat to wild-bee communities.

Wild bees as winners and losers: Relative impacts of landscape composition, quality, and climate

Wild bees, like many other taxa, are threatened by land-use and climate change, which, in turn, jeopardizes pollination of crops and wild plants. Understanding how land-use and climate factors interact is critical to predicting and managing pollinator populations and ensuring adequate pollination services, but most studies have evaluated either land-use or climate effects, not both. Furthermore, bee species are incredibly variable, spanning an array of behavioral, physiological, and life-history traits that can increase or decrease resilience to land-use or climate change. Thus, there are likely bee species that benefit, while others suffer, from changing climate and land use, but few studies have documented taxon-specific trends. To address these critical knowledge gaps, we analyzed a long-term dataset of wild bee occurrences from Maryland, Delaware, and Washington DC, USA, examining how different bee genera and functional groups respond to landscape composition, quality, and climate factors. Despite a large body of literature documenting land-use effects on wild bees, in this study, climate factors emerged as the main drivers of wild-bee abundance and richness. For wild-bee communities in spring and summer/fall, temperature and precipitation were more important predictors than landscape composition, landscape quality, or topography. However, relationships varied substantially between wild-bee genera and functional groups. In the Northeast USA, past trends and future predictions show a changing climate with warmer winters, more intense precipitation in winter and spring, and longer growing seasons with higher maximum temperatures. In almost all of our analyses, these conditions were associated with lower abundance of wild bees. Wild-bee richness results were more mixed, including neutral and positive relationships with predicted temperature and precipitation patterns. Thus, in this region and undoubtedly more broadly, changing climate poses a significant threat to wild-bee communities.