Behavior, size, and body condition predict susceptibility to management and reflect post-treatment frequency shifts in an invasive snake

Predation thresholds for reintroduction of native avifauna following suppression of invasive Brown Treesnakes on Guam

The brown treesnake (BTS) (Boiga irregularis) invasion on Guåhan (in English, Guam) led to the extirpation of nearly all native forest birds. In recent years, methods have been developed to reduce BTS abundance on a landscape scale. To help assess the prospects for the successful reintroduction of native birds to Guåhan following BTS suppression, we modeled bird population persistence based on their life history characteristics and relative sensitivity to BTS predation. We constructed individual-based models and simulated BTS predation in hypothetical founding populations for each of seven candidate bird species. We represented BTS predation risk in two steps: risk of being encountered and risk of mortality if encountered. We link encounter risk from the bird's perspective to snake contact rates at camera traps with live animal lures, the most direct practical means of estimating BTS predation risk. Our simulations support the well-documented fact that Guåhan's birds cannot persist with an uncontrolled population of BTS but do indicate that bird persistence in Guåhan's forests is possible with suppression short of total eradication. We estimate threshold BTS contact rates would need to be below 0.0002-0.0006 snake contacts per bird per night for these birds to persist on the landscape, which translates to an annual encounter probability of 0.07-0.20. We simulated the effects of snake-proof nest boxes for Sihek (Todiramphus cinnamominus) and Såli (Aplonis opaca), but the benefits were small relative to the overall variation in contact rate thresholds among species. This variation among focal bird species in sustainable predation levels can be used to prioritize species for reintroduction in a BTS-suppressed landscape, but variation among these species is narrow relative to the required reduction from current BTS levels, which may be four orders of magnitude higher (>0.18). Our modeling indicates that the required predation thresholds may need to be lower than have yet been demonstrated with current BTS management. Our predation threshold metric provides an important management tool to help estimate target BTS suppression levels that can be used to determine when bird reintroduction campaigns might begin and serves as a model for other systems to match predator control with reintroduction efforts.

Distilling Professional Opinion to Gauge Vulnerability of Guam Avifauna to Brown Treesnake Predation

The avifauna of Guam was devastated by the introduction of the Brown Treesnake, and the restoration of native birds would need to address the problem with eradication or suppression of BTS. With eradication of the snake unlikely in the near term, and suppression capabilities limited to specific finite areas, key information for reintroductions is how low BTS abundance will likely need to be for each bird species to be re-established based on their vulnerability to BTS predation. Here, we estimate vulnerability, which can no longer be measured directly, so biologists who are familiar with one or more of seven Guam birds were surveyed to obtain their knowledge and produce quantitative vulnerability estimates. As is typical of birds adapted to islands devoid of predators, respondents judged that our focal species exhibit few predator avoidance and tolerance traits, leaving body size as the prime determinant of vulnerability. Respondent opinion also holds that any behavior that reduces the likelihood of an encounter by BTS, e.g., roosting/nesting in palm crowns, cavity nesting, and in particular urban dwelling, substantially reduces vulnerability. Our results can help inform species-specific decisions about when it may be safe to consider the release of birds on Guam depending on the relative vulnerability of each species to predation by BTS.

Understanding metrics of stress in the context of invasion history: the case of the brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis)

Invasive species can exert rapid depletion of resources after introduction and, in turn, affect their own population density. Additionally, management actions can have direct and indirect effects on demography. Physiological variables can predict demographic change but are often restricted to snapshots-in-time and delayed confirmation of changes in population density reduces their utility. To evaluate the relationships between physiology and demography, we assessed metrics of individual and demographic stress (baseline and 1-h corticosterone (CORT), body condition and bacterial killing ability) in the invasive snake Boiga irregularis on Guam collected in intervals of 10-15 years. We also assessed potential discrepancies between different methods of measuring hormones [radioimmunoassay (RIA) versus enzyme immunoassay (EIA)]. The magnitude of difference between RIA and EIA was negligible and did not change gross interpretation of our results. We found that body condition was higher in recent samples (2003 and 2018) versus older (1992-93) samples. We found corresponding differences in baseline CORT, with higher baseline CORT in older, poorer body condition samples. Hormonal response to acute stress was higher in 2018 relative to 2003. We also found a weak relationship between circulating CORT and bacterial killing ability among 2018 samples, but the biological significance of the relationship is not clear. In an effort to develop hypotheses for future investigation of the links between physiology and demography in this and other systems, we discuss how the changes in CORT and body condition may reflect changes in population dynamics, resource availability or management pressure. Ultimately, we advocate for the synchronization of physiology and management studies to advance the field of applied conservation physiology.