Fostering real-time climate adaptation: Analyzing past, current, and forecast temperature to understand the dynamic risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers from avian malaria

The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A), or directing (D) ecological change

Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.

Environmental and geographical factors influence the occurrence and abundance of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus, in Hawai'i

Hawaiian honeycreepers, a group of endemic Hawaiian forest birds, are being threatened by avian malaria, a non-native disease that is driving honeycreepers populations to extinction. Avian malaria is caused by the parasite Plasmodium relictum, which is transmitted by the invasive mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. Environmental and geographical factors play an important role in shaping mosquito-borne disease transmission dynamics through their influence on the distribution and abundance of mosquitoes. We assessed the effects of environmental (temperature, precipitation), geographic (site, elevation, distance to anthropogenic features), and trap type (CDC light trap, CDC gravid trap) factors on mosquito occurrence and abundance. Occurrence was analyzed using classification and regression tree models (CART) and generalized linear models (GLM); abundance (count data) was analyzed using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Models predicted highest mosquito occurrence at mid-elevation sites and between July and November. Occurrence increased with temperature and precipitation up to 580 mm. For abundance, the best model was a zero-inflated negative-binomial model that indicated higher abundance of mosquitoes at mid-elevation sites and peak abundance between August and October. Estimation of occurrence and abundance as well as understanding the factors that influence them are key for mosquito control, which may reduce the risk of forest bird extinction.

Gene expression reveals immune response strategies of naïve Hawaiian honeycreepers experimentally infected with introduced avian malaria

The unprecedented rise in the number of new and emerging infectious diseases in the last quarter century poses direct threats to human and wildlife health. The introduction to the Hawaiian archipelago of Plasmodium relictum and the mosquito vector that transmits the parasite has led to dramatic losses in endemic Hawaiian forest bird species. Understanding how mechanisms of disease immunity to avian malaria may evolve is critical as climate change facilitates increased disease transmission to high elevation habitats where malaria transmission has historically been low and the majority of the remaining extant Hawaiian forest bird species now reside. Here, we compare the transcriptomic profiles of highly susceptible Hawai'i 'amakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens) experimentally infected with P. relictum to those of uninfected control birds from a naïve high elevation population. We examined changes in gene expression profiles at different stages of infection to provide an in-depth characterization of the molecular pathways contributing to survival or mortality in these birds. We show that the timing and magnitude of the innate and adaptive immune response differed substantially between individuals that survived and those that succumbed to infection, and likely contributed to the observed variation in survival. These results lay the foundation for developing gene-based conservation strategies for Hawaiian honeycreepers by identifying candidate genes and cellular pathways involved in the pathogen response that correlate with a bird's ability to recover from malaria infection.

Wildlife susceptibility to infectious diseases at global scales

Disease transmission prediction across wildlife is crucial for risk assessment of emerging infectious diseases. Susceptibility of host species to pathogens is influenced by the geographic, environmental, and phylogenetic context of the specific system under study. We used machine learning to analyze how such variables influence pathogen incidence for multihost pathogen assemblages, including one of direct transmission (coronaviruses and bats) and two vector-borne systems (West Nile Virus [WNV] and birds, and malaria and birds). Here we show that this methodology is able to provide reliable global spatial susceptibility predictions for the studied host-pathogen systems, even when using a small amount of incidence information (i.e., [Formula: see text] of information in a database). We found that avian malaria was mostly affected by environmental factors and by an interaction between phylogeny and geography, and WNV susceptibility was mostly influenced by phylogeny and by the interaction between geographic and environmental distances, whereas coronavirus susceptibility was mostly affected by geography. This approach will help to direct surveillance and field efforts providing cost-effective decisions on where to invest limited resources.

The Impact of Temperature on the Sporogonic Development of the Tropical Avian Malaria Parasite Plasmodium relictum (Genetic Lineage pGRW4) in Culex pipiens Form molestus Mosquitoes

The avian malaria parasite Plasmodium relictum (genetic lineage pGRW4) is known to cause severe pathology in nonadapted vertebrate hosts. This parasite is prevalent in some bird species in Northern Europe, however the records obtained are only from adult long-distance migrant birds after their return from the wintering grounds. A recent experimental study showed that this parasite completes sporogonic development in the local European vector Culex pipiens at a controlled mean temperature of 19 °C. Thereby, temperature limits for the transmission of this parasite in Northern Europe remain unknown. In this study, we took a step further and tested the impact of different temperature conditions, including some extreme fluctuations between 23 °C down to 7 °C, on the sporogonic development of P. relictum (pGRW4) in the vector Culex pipiens form molestus. Mosquitoes were exposed to infection and kept under different air-temperature conditions: (i) constant warm temperature, (ii) natural outdoor temperatures and (iii) temporary exposure to low temperatures. Plasmodium relictum (pGRW4) completed sporogony in mosquitoes of all experimental groups, however different patterns of the sporogonic development depending on temperature conditions were observed. Based on these results, we conclude that the cool air temperature of Northern Europe in summer is not a limiting factor in successful development of the parasite. However, delayed sporogony caused by low summer temperatures may have a detrimental impact on the active transmission of this parasite in Northern Europe.