Habitat availability disproportionally amplifies climate change risks for lowland compared to alpine species

Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change

Climate change is expected to threaten endemic plants in the Alps. In this context, the factors that may modulate species responses are rarely investigated at a local scale. We analyzed eight alpine narrow endemics of the Dolomites (southeastern Alps) under different predicted climate change scenarios at fine spatial resolutions. We tested possible differences in elevation, topographic heterogeneity and velocity of climate change among areas of gained, lost, or stable climatic habitat. The negative impact of climate change ranged from moderate to severe, depending on scenario and species. Generally, range loss occurred at the lowest elevations, while gained and stable areas were located at highest elevations. For six of the species, climate change velocity had higher values in stable and gained areas than in lost ones. Our findings support the role of topographic heterogeneity in maintaining climatic microrefugia, however, the peculiar topography of the Dolomites, characterized by high altitude plateaus, resulted in high climate change velocity in areas of projected future climatic suitability. Our study supports the usefulness of multiple predictors of spatio-temporal range dynamics for regional climate-adapted management and eventual assisted colonization planning to not overlook or overestimate the potential impact of climate change locally.

Addressing alpine plant phylogeography using integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modeling

Phylogeographic studies of alpine plants have evolved considerably in the last two decades from ad hoc interpretations of genetic data to statistical model-based approaches. In this review we outline the developments in alpine plant phylogeography focusing on the recent approach of integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent (iDDC) modeling. By integrating distributional data with spatially explicit demographic modeling and subsequent coalescent simulations, the history of alpine species can be inferred and long-standing hypotheses, such as species-specific responses to climate change or survival on nunataks during the last glacial maximum, can be efficiently tested as exemplified by available case studies. We also discuss future prospects and improvements of iDDC.

Two ways to be endemic. Alps and Apennines are different functional refugia during climatic cycles

Endemics co-occur because they evolved in situ and persist regionally or because they evolved ex situ and later dispersed to shared habitats, generating evolutionary or ecological endemicity centres, respectively. We investigate whether different endemicity centres can intertwine in the region ranging from Alps to Sicily, by studying their butterfly fauna. We gathered an extensive occurrence data set for butterflies of the study area (27,123 records, 269 species, in cells of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude-longitude). We applied molecular-based delimitation methods (GMYC model) to 26,557 cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) sequences of Western Palearctic butterflies. We identified entities based on molecular delimitations and/or the checklist of European butterflies and objectively attributed occurrences to their most probable entity. We obtained a zoogeographic regionalisation based on the 69 endemics of the area. Using phylogenetic ANOVA we tested if endemics from different centres differ from each other and from nonendemics for key ecological traits and divergence time. Endemicity showed high incidence in the Alps and Southern Italy. The regionalisation separated the Alps from the Italian Peninsula and Sicily. The endemics of different centres showed a high turnover and differed in phylogenetic distances, phenology and distribution traits. Endemics are on average younger than nonendemics and the Peninsula-Sicily endemics also have lower variance in divergence than those from the Alps. The observed variation identifies Alpine endemics as paleoendemics, now occupying an ecological centre, and the Peninsula-Sicily ones as neoendemics, that diverged in the region since the Pleistocene. The results challenge the common view of the Alpine-Apennine area as a single "Italian refugium".