Assessing the impact of climate change on the spatio-temporal distribution of foot-and-mouth disease risk for elephants

Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of foot and mouth disease incidence: an ecological, cross-sectional study across Iran using spatial modeling

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious animal disease caused by a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus, with significant economic costs and uneven distribution across Asia, Africa, and South America. While spatial analysis and modeling of FMD are still in their early stages, this research aimed to identify socio-environmental determinants of FMD incidence in Iran at the provincial level by studying 135 outbreaks reported between March 21, 2017, and March 21, 2018. We obtained 46 potential socio-environmental determinants and selected four variables, including percentage of population, precipitation in January, percentage of sheep, and percentage of goats, to be used in spatial regression models to estimate variation in spatial heterogeneity. In our analysis, we employed global models, namely ordinary least squares (OLS), spatial error model (SEM), and spatial lag model (SLM), as well as local models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). The MGWR model yielded the highest adjusted [Formula: see text] of 90%, outperforming the other local and global models. Using local models to map the effects of environmental determinants (such as the percentage of sheep and precipitation) on the spatial variability of FMD incidence provides decision-makers with helpful information for targeted interventions. Our findings advocate for multiscale and multidisciplinary policies to reduce FMD incidence.

The prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease in Asia

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is listed among the highly contagious diseases in animals and is endemic throughout the Asian continent. The disease is caused by the Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and affects a wide variety of domesticated animals as well as wild ungulates. Clinically, the disease is described as a vesicular lesion on the tongue, muzzle, lips, gum, dental pad, interdigital cleft, coronary band, and heel of the foot. Sometimes these lesions give rise to lameness. Mastitis is also caused due to teat lesions. A biochemical test reveals that during FMD infection, there are elevated levels of interleukin-1 (IL-1), tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), interleukin-6, serum amyloid A protein, lactoferrin, mannose-binding lectin, and monocytes chemo-attractant protein-1 in the serum of infected animals. There is no specific treatment for FMD although some antivirals are given as prophylaxis and antibiotics are given to prevent secondary bacterial infection. This review presents comprehensive data on the prevalence of FMD and serotypes of FMDV that are attributable to the cause of FMD from a regional point of view. It also explains the worldwide dynamics of the seven serotypes of FMD and tries to identify epidemiological clusters of FMD in various geographical areas. Furthermore, the pathology associated with the foot and mouth disease virus along with the pathophysiology is discussed. The continent-wide prevalence and diversity patterns of FMD suggest that there is a need for stringent policies and legislation implementation regarding research and development aimed at manufacturing strain-specific vaccination, infection prevention, and control of the disease.

Disgust in animals and the application of disease avoidance to wildlife management and conservation

Disgust is an adaptive system hypothesized to have evolved to reduce the risk of becoming sick. It is associated with behavioural, cognitive and physiological responses tuned to allow animals to avoid and/or get rid of parasites, pathogens and toxins. Little is known about the mechanisms and outcomes of disease avoidance in wild animals. Furthermore, given the escalation of negative human-wildlife interactions, the translation of such knowledge into the design of evolutionarily relevant conservation and wildlife management strategies is becoming urgent. Contemporary methods in animal ecology and related fields, using direct (sensory cues) or indirect (remote sensing technologies and machine learning) means, provide a flexible toolbox for testing and applying disgust at individual and collective levels. In this review/perspective paper, we provide an empirical framework for testing the adaptive function of disgust and its associated disease avoidance behaviours across species, from the least to the most social, in different habitats. We predict various trade-offs to be at play depending on the social system and ecology of the species. We propose five contexts in which disgust-related avoidance behaviours could be applied, including endangered species rehabilitation, invasive species, crop-raiding, urban pests and animal tourism. We highlight some of the perspectives and current challenges of testing disgust in the wild. In particular, we recommend future studies to consider together disease, predation and competition risks. We discuss the ethics associated with disgust experiments in the above contexts. Finally, we promote the creation of a database gathering disease avoidance evidence in animals and its applications.

The recent Asian elephant range expansion in Yunnan, China, is associated with climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes

Recently, the northward movement of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Yunnan, China, has attracted international attention. Climate change or human disturbances have been proposed to be the key drivers, but these hypotheses have not been rigorously tested. In this study, we quantified the relationship between climate change and human impacts on the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in southwest China. We found that the first observation probability of this species in a new place during 1959–2021 had a significant and positive association with change in air temperature and human density, resulting in a movement toward a high-latitude region with a warmer climate and higher human density; however, its association with precipitation was scale-dependent in time: positive or negative during the past 10 or 5 years, respectively. Under the enforced protection policy, human-dominated areas became preferred habitats for elephants. Our results indicate that climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes in the last few decades are significant drivers of the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in Yunnan, China. It is necessary to expand the current protected areas or habitat corridors toward the north or set up new reserves in the north and set up barriers between human settlements and elephant habitats to facilitate elephant movements and minimize human-elephant conflicts under accelerated global change.

Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

Background

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis.

Results

Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (parts of Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (parts of Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan and Guangdong), northern (parts of Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (parts of Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). Spring is the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC=0.8634).

Conclusions

These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and veterinary services can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12917-021-03084-5.

Long-term collapse in fruit availability threatens Central African forest megafauna

Afrotropical forests host much of the world's remaining megafauna, although these animals are confined to areas where direct human influences are low. We used a rare long-term dataset of tree reproduction and a photographic database of forest elephants to assess food availability and body condition of an emblematic megafauna species at Lopé National Park, Gabon. Our analysis reveals an 81% decline in fruiting over a 32-year period (1986-2018) and an 11% decline in body condition of fruit-dependent forest elephants from 2008 to 2018. Fruit famine in one of the last strongholds for African forest elephants should raise concern about the ability of this species and other fruit-dependent megafauna to persist in the long term, with potential consequences for broader ecosystem and biosphere functioning.