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Cui L, DeAngelis DL, Berger U, Cao M, Zhang Y, Zhang X, Jiang J. Global potential distribution of mangroves: Taking into account salt marsh interactions along latitudinal gradients. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 351:119892. [PMID: 38176380 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119892] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Revised: 12/01/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2024]
Abstract
Mangrove is one of the most productive and sensitive ecosystems in the world. Due to the complexity and specificity of mangrove habitat, the development of mangrove is regulated by several factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are effective tools to identify the potential habitats for establishing and regenerating the ecosystem. Such models usually include exclusively environmental factors. Nevertheless, recent studies have challenged this notion and highlight the importance of including biotic interactions. Both factors are necessary for a mechanistic understanding of the mangrove distribution in order to promote the protection and restoration of mangroves. Thus, we present a novel approach of combining environmental factors and interactions with salt marsh for projecting mangrove distributions at the global level and within latitudinal zones. To test the salt marsh interaction, we fit the MaxEnt model with two predicting sets: (1) environments only and (2) environments + salt marsh interaction index (SII). We found that both sets of models had good predictive ability, although the SII improved model performance slightly. Potential distribution areas of mangrove decrease with latitudes, and are controlled by biotic and abiotic factors. Temperature, precipitation and wind speed are generally critical at both global scale and ecotones along latitudes. SII is important on global scale, with a contribution of 5.9%, ranking 6th, and is particularly critical in the 10-30°S and 20-30°N zone. Interactions with salt marsh, including facilitation and competition, are shown to affect the distribution of mangroves at the zone of coastal ecotone, especially in the latitudinal range from 10° - 30°. The contribution of SII to mangrove distribution increases with latitudes due to the difference in the adaptive capacity of salt marsh plants and mangroves to environments. Totally, this study identified and quantified the effects of salt marsh on mangrove distribution by establishing the SII. The results not only facilitate to establish a more accurate mangrove distribution map, but also improve the efficiency of mangrove restoration by considering the salt marsh interaction in the mangrove management projects. In addition, the method of incorporating biotic interaction into SDMs through establish the biotic interaction index has contributed to the development of SDMs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lina Cui
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Donald L DeAngelis
- Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, U. S. Geological Survey, Davie, Florida, USA
| | - Uta Berger
- Department of Forest Biometry and Systems Analysis, Institute of Forest Growth and Forest Computer Sciences, Technische Universitaet Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Minmin Cao
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yaqi Zhang
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | | | - Jiang Jiang
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China.
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Anderson CM, Fahrig L, Rausch J, Smith PA. Climate variables are not the dominant predictor of Arctic shorebird distributions. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0285115. [PMID: 37195973 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Accepted: 04/16/2023] [Indexed: 05/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Competing theoretical perspectives about whether or not climate is the dominant factor influencing species' distributions at large spatial scales have important consequences when habitat suitability models are used to address conservation problems. In this study, we tested how much variables in addition to climate help to explain habitat suitability for Arctic-breeding shorebirds. To do this we model species occupancy using path analyses, which allow us to estimate the indirect effects of climate on other predictor variables, such as land cover. We also use deviance partitioning to quantify the total relative importance of climate versus additional predictors in explaining species occupancy. We found that individual land cover variables are often stronger predictors than the direct and indirect effects of climate combined. In models with both climate and additional variables, on average the additional variables accounted for 57% of the explained deviance, independent of shared effects with the climate variables. Our results support the idea that climate-only models may offer incomplete descriptions of current and future habitat suitability and can lead to incorrect conclusions about the size and location of suitable habitat. These conclusions could have important management implications for designating protected areas and assessing threats like climate change and human development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine M Anderson
- Department of Biology, Geomatics and Landscape Ecology Laboratory, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Lenore Fahrig
- Department of Biology, Geomatics and Landscape Ecology Laboratory, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Jennie Rausch
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Yellowknife, NT, Canada
| | - Paul A Smith
- Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
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Pélissié M, Johansson F, Hyseni C. Pushed Northward by Climate Change: Range Shifts With a Chance of Co-occurrence Reshuffling in the Forecast for Northern European Odonates. ENVIRONMENTAL ENTOMOLOGY 2022; 51:910-921. [PMID: 36017921 PMCID: PMC9585372 DOI: 10.1093/ee/nvac056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2022] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Biodiversity is heavily influenced by ongoing climate change, which often results in species undergoing range shifts, either poleward or uphill. Range shifts can occur provided suitable habitats exist within reach. However, poleward latitudinal shifts might be limited by additional abiotic or biotic constraints, such as increased seasonality, photoperiod patterns, and species interactions. To gain insight into the dynamics of insect range shifts at high latitudes, we constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) for 57 Odonata species occurring in northern Europe. We used citizen science data from Sweden and present-day climatic variables covering a latitudinal range of 1,575 km. Then, to measure changes in range and interactions among Odonata species, we projected the ENMs up to the year 2080. We also estimated potential changes in species interactions using niche overlap and co-occurrence patterns. We found that most Odonata species are predicted to expand their range northward. The average latitudinal shift is expected to reach 1.83 and 3.25 km y-1 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by 2061-2080. While the most warm-dwelling species may increase their range, our results indicate that cold-dwelling species will experience range contractions. The present-day niche overlap patterns among species will remain largely the same in the future. However, our results predict changes in co-occurrence patterns, with many species pairs showing increased co-occurrence, while others will no longer co-occur because of the range contractions. In sum, our ENM results suggest that species assemblages of Odonata-and perhaps insects in general-in northern latitudes will experience great compositional changes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Chaz Hyseni
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, Animal Ecology, Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
- USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Center for Bottomland Hardwoods Research, Oxford, MS 38655, USA
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John C, Post E. Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9189. [PMID: 35979518 PMCID: PMC9366586 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2022] [Revised: 07/18/2022] [Accepted: 07/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Assumptions about factors such as climate in shaping species' realized and potential distributions underlie much of conservation planning and wildlife management. Climate and climatic change lead to shifts in species distributions through both direct and indirect ecological pressures. Distributional shifts may be particularly important if range overlap is altered between interacting species, or between species and protected areas. The cattle family (Bovidae) represents a culturally, economically, and ecologically important taxon that occupies many of the world's rangelands. In contemporary North America, five wild bovid species inhabit deserts, prairies, mountains, and tundra from Mexico to Greenland. Here, we aim to understand how future climate change will modify environmental characteristics associated with North American bovid species relative to the distribution of extant protected areas. We fit species distribution models for each species to climate, topography, and land cover data using observations from a citizen science dataset. We then projected modeled distributions to the end of the 21st century for each bovid species under two scenarios of anticipated climate change. Modeling results suggest that suitable habitat will shift inconsistently across species and that such shifts will lead to species-specific variation in overlap between potential habitat and existing protected areas. Furthermore, projected overlap with protected areas was sensitive to the warming scenario under consideration, with diminished realized protected area under greater warming. Conservation priorities and designation of new protected areas should account for ecological consequences of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian John
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation BiologyUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCaliforniaUSA
| | - Eric Post
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation BiologyUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCaliforniaUSA
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Andersen D, Litvinchuk SN, Jang HJ, Jiang J, Koo KS, Maslova I, Kim D, Jang Y, Borzée A. Incorporation of latitude-adjusted bioclimatic variables increases accuracy in species distribution models. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Webber QM, Ferraro K, Hendrix J, Vander Wal E. What do caribou eat? A review of the literature on caribou diet. CAN J ZOOL 2022. [DOI: 10.1139/cjz-2021-0162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Historically the study of diet caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus (Gmelin, 1788)) has been specific to herds and few comprehensive circumpolar analyses of Rangifer diet exist. As a result, the importance of certain diet items may play an outsized role in the caribou diet zeitgeist, e.g., lichen. It is incumbent to challenge this notion and test the relevant importance of various diet items within the context of prevailing hypotheses. We provide a systematic overview of 30 caribou studies reporting caribou diet and test biologically relevant hypotheses about spatial and temporal dietary variation. Our results indicate that in the winter caribou primarily consume lichen, but in warmer seasons, and primary productivity is lower, caribou primarily consume graminoids and other vascular plants. In more productive environments, where caribou have more competitors and predators, consumption of lichen increased. Overall, our description of caribou diet reveals that caribou diet is highly variable, but in circumstances where they can consume vascular plants, they will. As climate change affects Boreal and Arctic ecosystems, the type and volume of food consumed by caribou has become an increasingly important focus for conservation and management of caribou.
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Affiliation(s)
- Quinn M.R. Webber
- Memorial University of Newfoundland, 7512, Cognitive and Behavioural Ecology, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
- University of Colorado Boulder, 1877, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Boulder, Colorado, United States
| | - Kristy Ferraro
- Yale University, 5755, School of the Environment, New Haven, Connecticut, United States
| | - Jack Hendrix
- Memorial University of Newfoundland, 7512, Cognitive and Behavioural Ecology, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
| | - Eric Vander Wal
- Memorial University of Newfoundland, 7512, Biology, 232 Elizabeth Ave, Saint John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, A1B 3X9,
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Stewart JE, Maclean IMD, Edney AJ, Bridle J, Wilson RJ. Microclimate and resource quality determine resource use in a range-expanding herbivore. Biol Lett 2021; 17:20210175. [PMID: 34343435 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2021.0175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The consequences of climate change for biogeographic range dynamics depend on the spatial scales at which climate influences focal species directly and indirectly via biotic interactions. An overlooked question concerns the extent to which microclimates modify specialist biotic interactions, with emergent properties for communities and range dynamics. Here, we use an in-field experiment to assess egg-laying behaviour of a range-expanding herbivore across a range of natural microclimatic conditions. We show that variation in microclimate, resource condition and individual fecundity can generate differences in egg-laying rates of almost two orders of magnitude in an exemplar species, the brown argus butterfly (Aricia agestis). This within-site variation in fecundity dwarfs variation resulting from differences in average ambient temperatures among populations. Although higher temperatures did not reduce female selection for host plants in good condition, the thermal sensitivities of egg-laying behaviours have the potential to accelerate climate-driven range expansion by increasing egg-laying encounters with novel hosts in increasingly suitable microclimates. Understanding the sensitivity of specialist biotic interactions to microclimatic variation is, therefore, critical to predict the outcomes of climate change across species' geographical ranges, and the resilience of ecological communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- James E Stewart
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Ilya M D Maclean
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Alice J Edney
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jon Bridle
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.,Department of Genetics, Evolution, and Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Robert J Wilson
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.,Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, UK.,Departmento de Biogeografía y Cambio Global, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Madrid E28006, Spain
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Beest FM, Beumer LT, Andersen AS, Hansson SV, Schmidt NM. Rapid shifts in Arctic tundra species' distributions and inter‐specific range overlap under future climate change. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13362] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Floris M. Beest
- Department of Bioscience Aarhus University Roskilde Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre Aarhus University Aarhus C Denmark
| | - Larissa T. Beumer
- Department of Bioscience Aarhus University Roskilde Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre Aarhus University Aarhus C Denmark
| | | | - Sophia V. Hansson
- Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement (UMR‐5245) CNRS, Université de Toulouse Castanet Tolosan France
| | - Niels M. Schmidt
- Department of Bioscience Aarhus University Roskilde Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre Aarhus University Aarhus C Denmark
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