Supporting sustainable expansion of livestock production in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa: Scenario analysis of investment options

Accuracy of enteric methane emission models for cattle in sub-Saharan Africa: status quo and the way forward

Cattle emit over 65% of enteric methane (CH4) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), making them the focus of many mitigation strategies targeting livestock emissions. Since measured feed intake data are sparse, emission factors for enteric CH4 (EFCH4) are mainly estimated indirectly from gross energy intake (GEI) using the net energy (NE) requirements for different metabolic processes in cattle. However, all NE requirement systems commonly used for cattle in SSA were developed for cattle in temperate regions. Therefore, we assessed the suitability of different enteric CH4 models for estimating the GEI of cattle in SSA. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and South African models were identified as the main tier 2-based methods used to estimate enteric CH4 emissions from cattle in SSA. In the IPCC model, EFCH4 was estimated as (GEI * [Ym/100])/55.65, where Ym is the conversion factor (%) of gross energy in feed to CH4 and 55.65 the energy content of CH4 (MJ/kg). The GEI was estimated based on NE requirements for different metabolic processes in cattle as per the American National Research Council. In the South African model, EFCH4 was estimated as (Y/100 * GEI/55.22), where Y is the CH4 yield and 55.22 is the energy content of CH4; Y was calculated from the dry matter (DM) digestibility while GEI was calculated by predicting DM intake and multiplying it by 18.4 MJ (gross energy per kilogram DM). Also, the suitability of the British and German NE requirement systems was assessed as alternatives used for cattle nutrition in SSA. These NE systems were implemented in the IPCC model to yield the "AFRC" and "GfE" models, respectively. The four models were then evaluated using an evaluation dataset summarizing feed quality and DM intake results from 21 studies conducted in SSA, with 125 dietary treatments, and 822 cattle observations. The relative prediction error (RPE) and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) were used to evaluate the models' accuracy. Only the South African model estimated the GEI in dairy cattle with an acceptable RPE (18.9%) and highest CCC (0.87), while the other three models yielded estimates with RPE > 20%. None of the four models we assessed estimated GEI for other cattle (i.e., nondairy) with an RPE < 20% or CCC > 0.30. The inaccuracy in GEI estimates suggests an error of the same magnitude in EFCH4 estimates. Therefore, a concerted effort is needed to improve the accuracy of enteric CH4 estimation models for cattle in SSA.

How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries' Dietary Change under Urbanization?

There has been a growing awareness of the dietary shift from traditional staples to animal-derived foods during the urbanization of developing countries. Less discussed is how the global food landscape will accommodate such changes in diet. Our study aims to use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to predict the future food landscape based on the dietary shift in developing countries, represented by China, India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, under a 2030 urbanization scenario. The results show that the average global outputs of fish, meat, and dairy products increase by 0.26-2.85%, along with an expansion in their trade volume by 2.10-13.95%, by 2030. To ensure that dietary changes can be met in developing countries, Asia and America need to strengthen their positions with respect to global food production share, while Africa is developing to become a non-negligible growing force. Accordingly, globalized food trade is characterized by a centralized export and, conversely, by a decentralized import, clearly indicating an expanding net-import tendency in populous developing countries. These findings highlight the adaptation scheme of global food production and trade patterns under a 2030 urbanization scenario, as urbanization accelerates dietary change in developing countries.

Amplification of agriculture factor productivity, food price and exchange rate on societal welfare spiraling in Ethiopia

The issue of welfare is a widespread issue that any country in the world would love to achieve. However, in Ethiopia, many societies are living in poverty because of high food prices emanating from fragile agricultural productivity and exchange rate devaluation. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of agricultural factors productivity, food prices, and exchange rates on household welfare in Ethiopia. Based on the stochastic process of the variables, the autoregressive distributed lag model has been employed. The result of the model revealed that agricultural land productivity in the introduction episode depresses welfare and, latterly, it optimistically improves welfare. Nevertheless, labor productivity in agriculture has a negative impact on welfare. Furthermore, exchange rate depreciation and food price increases in Ethiopia endanger welfare by eroding purchasers' purchasing power and amplifying the divergence of demand and supply in the economy. To improve the welfare of society, the government and society should increase the productive capacity of domestic firms and the agriculture sector to the extent that offsets the exchange rate effects on welfare.

A shift from cattle to camel and goat farming can sustain milk production with lower inputs and emissions in north sub-Saharan Africa's drylands

Climate change is increasingly putting milk production from cattle-based dairy systems in north sub-Saharan Africa (NSSA) under stress, threatening livelihoods and food security. Here we combine livestock heat stress frequency, dry matter feed production and water accessibility data to understand where environmental changes in NSSA's drylands are jeopardizing cattle milk production. We show that environmental conditions worsened for ∼17% of the study area. Increasing goat and camel populations by ∼14% (∼7.7 million) and ∼10% (∼1.2 million), respectively, while reducing the dairy cattle population by ∼24% (∼5.9 million), could result in ∼0.14 Mt (+5.7%) higher milk production, lower water (-1,683.6 million m³, -15.3%) and feed resource (-404.3 Mt, -11.2%) demand-and lower dairy emissions by ∼1,224.6 MtCO₂e (-7.9%). Shifting herd composition from cattle towards the inclusion of, or replacement with, goats and camels can secure milk production and support NSSA's dairy production resilience against climate change.

Cow products: boon to human health and food security

The world population exceeded 7.8 billion people in 2020 and is predicted to reach 9.9 billion by 2050 as per the current increasing rate of 25%. In view of this, ensuring human health and food security has become an issue of key importance to countries with different degrees of economic development. At the same time, the livestock sector plays a strategic role in improving the economic, environmental, and sociocultural stewardship of any nation. The cow (Bos indicus) has held a distinctive role in human history ever since its domestication because of its valued harvests like dairy products (milk, clarified butter, yogurt, curd, and buttermilk) excreta like dung and urine. These products, except dung, provide all the necessary energy and nutrients to ensure the proper growth and development of the human. They are the source of many bioactive substances, which possess immense pharmacotherapeutic action against various physiological, metabolic and infectious disorders, including COVID-19. The use of urine and dung can be considered a low-cost agricultural practice for farmers and has been extensively used in modern agriculture practices to ensure food security via soil fertility, plant pathogens, and pests. Cow urine mediated synthesized nanomaterial also display distinctive characteristics and novel applications in various fields of science and technology. Thus, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of cow products, describing their biochemical constituents, bioactivities, and their utilization in the area ranging from human welfare to agriculture sustainability. An attempt is also made to present possible applications in bioenergy production and pollution reduction.

Emergence and transboundary spread of lumpy skin disease in South Asia

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an OIE notifiable, transboundary pox viral disease of livestock. LSD is an emerging disease severely affecting livestock economics. The zoonotic potential of the LSD virus has not been extensively studied and reported. In approximately 90 years, the virus dispersed to numerous world locations after its first emergence in Zambia. LSD virus emergence in South Asia prevailed among livestock (cattle and water buffalo) owners due to economic/financial losses. The estimate of the economic impact of LSD in the southern, eastern and southeastern countries suggested direct losses of livestock and production of approximately USD 1.45 billion. In 2019, nearly the same time, the disease was reported for the first time from many bordering countries, such as India, Nepal, China, and Bangladesh. In 2020, the LSD was also recorded in Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Southeast China. In 2021, it further spread to new countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia. Cattle affected with LSD show a characteristic nodular lesion or skin lump over the whole body and may occasionally be associated with systemic signs. Hematophagous arthropod-borne mechanical transmission is considered primary and the most common route; however, other transmission routes related to illegal animal trade have played a role in the emergence of LSD in countries otherwise/earlier free from it. Among serological diagnostic tests, OIE recommends virus neutralization as the standard gold test. Diagnosis in LSD-free countries requires virus isolation and further sequencing of the isolate. Control of LSD is possible by most of the measures applied for rapidly transmitting viral infection, including vaccination. LSD virus-specific vaccines are considered suitable to confer protection to cattle and buffalo over heterologous vaccines. In countries such as India, the lack of a specific policy for LSD at the time of the first onset of this disease, the high density of susceptible unvaccinated populations, unawareness among farmers, veterinarians and prevailing laws of no slaughter of cattle created a favourable situation of its spread to many states. Amid COVID-19, the whole world is in turmoil; the emergence of diseases such as LSD is further lowering the economy, and hence must be reviewed to save and sustain the backbone of the developing country's economy in Southeast Asia.

Phages for Africa: The Potential Benefit and Challenges of Phage Therapy for the Livestock Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

One of the world’s fastest-growing human populations is in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), accounting for more than 950 million people, which is approximately 13% of the global population. Livestock farming is vital to SSA as a source of food supply, employment, and income. With this population increase, meeting this demand and the choice for a greater income and dietary options come at a cost and lead to the spread of zoonotic diseases to humans. To control these diseases, farmers have opted to rely heavily on antibiotics more often to prevent disease than for treatment. The constant use of antibiotics causes a selective pressure to build resistant bacteria resulting in the emergence and spread of multi-drug resistant (MDR) organisms in the environment. This necessitates the use of alternatives such as bacteriophages in curbing zoonotic pathogens. This review covers the underlying problems of antibiotic use and resistance associated with livestock farming in SSA, bacteriophages as a suitable alternative, what attributes contribute to making bacteriophages potentially valuable for SSA and recent research on bacteriophages in Africa. Furthermore, other topics discussed include the creation of phage biobanks and the challenges facing this kind of advancement, and the regulatory aspects of phage development in SSA with a focus on Kenya.

Modeling of Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) Yield and Control Insecticide Exposure in a Semi-Arid Region

The aim of this study was to evaluate the adaptability of different genotypes of cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp.) in the edaphoclimatic conditions of a semi-arid region. In the experimental design, a completely randomized split-plot (2 × 8), with 3 repetitions (blocks) was used. The experiment comprised 7 new genotypes and 1 local genotype as the first main factor and application of insecticide as a secondary factor. Two-factor analysis of variance (two-way ANOVA) determined the differences between the treated and untreated plots. The results obtained in the experiment showed that the introduced genotypes V3 (IT07K-181-55), V7 (H4), and V5 (IT97K-556-4M) adapted well to the edaphoclimatic conditions of the study area and their yields were respectively 1019, 1015, and 841 kg/ha of grains in treated plots and 278, 517 and 383 kg/ha in untreated plots. Multivariate analysis revealed that the most important parameter was the germination rate. Finally, the best yield was obtained with the genotype V3 (IT07K-181-55), subjected to the use of insecticide, and with the V7 (H4) genotype in untreated plants. The findings presented in this research should be useful in crop system agricultural programs, particularly in the terms of selection of cultivating systems suitable for high-yielding cowpea.

Sustainable goat production: modelling optimal performance in extensive systems

Context Strategies for achieving greater ruminant livestock productivity are essential to meet the food demands of growing populations, but sustainable changes are difficult to identify given the inherent complexity of such systems. Systems models can address this issue by allowing the impact of potential changes to be explored. Aims To develop a holistic systems model for goat production in an extensive Mediterranean environment which could allow changes in key management factors influencing the system to be investigated. Methods Initially, a conceptual comprehensive stock-and-flow model of a representative Mediterranean goat production system was constructed. This was used to identify informative indicators that would represent the overall technical and economic performance of the system. Sub-models were then assembled to build the full systems model. The model was parameterised with data collected over 3 years for goat holdings in northern Morocco. Scenario analysis techniques are used to explore the strategies that optimise performance under climate and feed price challenges. Key results Meat production is particularly important during periods of drought when increased meat yields can counteract the expected reduction in milk yields, to protect human food security, prevent excessive rangeland degradation and preserve natural nutritional resources. Feed price shocks during drought can have significant negative impacts on the system and zero feed input is shown to be a more sustainable strategy than reliance on high price feed during drought. Any alternative feed sources need to have a high forage component to reduce grazing periods significantly and promote rangeland preservation. Implications A diverse management strategy with a mixed meat and dairy semi-intensive production is more stable than specialised dairy systems and allows goat production and financial viability of intensification to be maintained under climatic stress; maintaining meat production was necessary to optimise performance. Conclusions The model allows improved insight into management strategies which could optimise animal husbandry performance in goat subsistence systems. However, the work also demonstrates the difficulty of constructing a truly holistic model since, to be practical, such constructs must necessarily be bounded; parameter selection and the limits to the boundaries imposed are inevitably critical.

A Double Hurdle Estimation of Sales Decisions by Smallholder Beef Cattle Farmers in Eswatini

Beef cattle farmers are in an ideal position to advance their income through marketing; however, the subsector is characterized by low market participation. Wealth preservation and prestige from cattle accumulation outweigh market incentives, thereby jeopardizing the integration of farmers into organized market systems. Therefore, the study was set to examine the determinants of farmers’ sales decisions in cattle marketing. Understanding determinants of sales decisions is an indispensable base for establishing sustainable development policy frameworks that maximize rural economic growth. Descriptive statistics and a double-hurdle model were applied on cross-sectional data collected from 397 farmers through personal interviews aided by a structured questionnaire. Herd size (74.1%), ecological zone (32.4%), slaughters (22.1%), pregnant cows (18.2%), experience (15.0%) and breed type (11.4%) revealed statistically significant effects on the probability of market participation. The key determinants of the level of market participation (p < 0.01) included extension, married marital status, pasture availability, cows, heifers, market distance, market information and market channel 2 (individual). Education, experience, non-farm income, expenses and laborers were significant at p < 0.05. Widowed marital status and market channel 1 (processor) were found to be significant at p < 0.1. Extension adjustments and institutionalization of market linkages are recommended to assist farmers in increasing marketable surplus.